Finance

Shock to ‘force’ RBA to cut interest rates further than expected: ‘More aggressive’

Published

12 months ago

June 23, 2025

Shock to ‘force’ RBA to cut interest rates further than expected: ‘More aggressive’

The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate further this year, with KPMG adding one more cut to its forecast. · Source: AAP

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could be pushed to take a “more aggressive” rate-cutting approach following the conflict in the Middle East and the potential oil price shock. Some analysts now expect the central bank could cut interest rates a further three times this year.

KPMG has estimated the conflict in the Middle East could shave between 0.15 and 0.20 per cent of the GDP from the Australian economy this year, should the world oil market react in a similar way to how it responded to the first Iraq War. It said an “oil shock” combined with the continuing threat of a global tariff fallout could “force” the RBA’s hand.

“The longer an oil price shock is sustained, the worse its impact is in terms of inflation outcomes, inflation expectations and short-term growth,” KPMG said.

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“This is because oil price shocks can be particularly damaging to an economy like Australia’s as the road transport sector — one of the heaviest users of oil in our economy — touches every single other sector (including itself) across the country.”

Global oil prices slid 7.2 per cent on Monday following Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on a US airbase. The Brent crude price fell to around $US70 a barrel. This has eased fears of major supply disruptions, but markets remain cautious as tensions continue.

KPMG said it had revised down its RBA cash rate forecasts and now expects a further three rate cuts this year, one more than its original expectation at the start of 2025, bringing the cash rate down to 3.1 per cent by the end of the year.

It expects the RBA to “look through” any short-term inflationary impact of any oil shock and noted this would be combined with core inflation now looking well entrenched in the target band and overall weakness in the Australian economy.

If the RBA cuts interest rates three times, homeowners could see their repayments drop by $265 a month. That’s based on someone with an average $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining.

Markets have an 86 per cent expectation of an interest rate change at the next RBA meeting in July and are almost fully priced in for three more reductions by the end of the year.

NAB is the only Big Four bank predicting an interest rate cut next month, with ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac expecting a cut in August.

Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said the RBA would be more focused on inflation than the oil price.

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Finance

Aussie lawyer warns of ‘middle class’ family battles after budget introduces ‘backdoor death tax’

Published

3 hours ago

June 14, 2026

Press Room

Aussie lawyer warns of ‘middle class’ family battles after budget introduces ‘backdoor death tax’

Family lawyers could be among the professions kept extra busy after the budget tax changes pass. · Getty

Australians are expected to pass on trillions of dollars in assets in the coming years as the grey tsunami of wealthy baby boomers crashes across the economy. But some of those expecting the windfall could be more likely to find themselves in a potential dispute with their loved ones as tax changes introduced to trusts commonly used in estate planning increase the likelihood of conflict.

Lawyers who deal with contested wills and estates foresee issues of conflict more likely to arise if the proposed changes go ahead. Alun Hill is the national director of the contested estates division of Armstrong Legal and believes there will be more reasons for discontent and for wills to be challenged due to the increased tax take being slipped in.

“It widens the battleground,” he told Yahoo Finance. “It just creates more reason why there might be someone who wants to contest a will.”

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Under the changes in Labor’s controversial budget, the unprecedented 30 per cent minimum level of capital gains tax will apply to the most common form of estate planning trust, known as a the testamentary discretionary trust.

While the government says its legislation pertaining to tax changes for trusts will be brought before parliament later this year, the slated changes would come into effect from July 1, 2028, and only specifically exclude fixed testamentary trusts. Fixed trusts are different from discretionary trusts as trustees don’t have the discretion to change the proportion of income a beneficiary is entitled to.

“Discretionary trusts aren’t just used as a tax minimisation vehicle,” Hill said. “Traditionally they’ve been used to provide the trustee with the ability to do what’s necessary to carry out the intentions of the testator (the person who wrote the will).”

While the finer details remain to be seen, the new tax floor regardless of the income of beneficiaries and the overall higher CGT on assets, will mean beneficiaries will see less passed on than previously expected – and that can be grounds for a challenge.

“What this really does is create the potential for claims being made against the estate by the spouse or by whoever the intended beneficiary is, who is no longer receiving adequate provision or appropriate provision under the testamentary trust,” Hill said.

While tax accountants, financial planners and business and property valuers are all expected to be kept extremely busy due to the added complexity being introduced by Labor’s new tax regime, family lawyers might also need to be braced for more work in the years ahead.

RELATED: Baby boomers urged to rethink $4.9 trillion Gen Z inheritance trend

A bigger tax take for the government likely means more contested wills, Alun Hill says. · Getty

Hill believes that regular Australian families will likely be the ones mostly captured by the new rules while the wealthiest individuals will continue to find workarounds and exotic structures to minimise their tax.

“They’re already talking to their financial planners and their estate planners about what to do. There’s no doubt they’ll be the ones who find a way through,” he said of the wealthiest Australians.

“The ones who won’t are probably the middle class. People who leave an estate with one or two properties, some shares in a portfolio and some money in a term deposit – those are the ones who are probably not going to undergo complex estate planning.

“Unfortunately it means that what may result is the testator’s intentions may not be carried through for a multitude of reasons,” Hill claimed.

He gave an example of someone who has two children who they want to provide equally for. If they had $2 million in shares and $2 million in property and they decide to give one child the home and the other the shares, it’s likely the shares will be taxed more heavily.

“One child receives an asset class that is heavily taxed in the new system and they actually receive a lot less in their hand, so they’re going to feel they’ve been shorted, and they’re probably going to want to contest,” Hill said.

“Although the changes are drastic… [in these cases] it widens the potential battleground for wills and the categories of people who would otherwise not be thinking about claiming against an estate, because it just changes the nature and value of estates.”

So-called ‘death tax’ could accelerate ‘living inheritance’ trend

The expected changes have some in the industry expecting more retired Aussies to pass on their wealth while they’re still alive. Findex financial adviser Jonathan Scholes told Yahoo Finance he thinks it will accelerate the ‘living inheritance’ trend he is already seeing among clients.

“If that change goes through, I think it’s going to trigger every client, basically, who’s got some wealth behind them, reviewing their estate plan and saying: Is this something we do before we leave the planet or something we do after we leave the planet?” he said.

“And I think there’s going to be a lot of people that are going to start thinking about going; ‘let’s do it earlier’.”

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Finance

Man who built Guernsey finance charity retires

Published

14 hours ago

June 14, 2026

Press Room

Man who built Guernsey finance charity retires

A charity has announced its new chair following the retirement of its founder.

Peter Neville worked for more than five years to set up Guernsey Community Savings, which first opened its doors in September 2020 to support people who were not able to access mainstream banking, staff said.

Former banker James Ellis is taking over the role. Neville said: “James brings exactly the right blend of financial services experience, charitable involvement and community understanding.”

The charity had helped about 200 people, who would otherwise have been excluded from the financial system access, to accounts and linked debit cards, and offered money‑management guidance to many more, staff said.

Neville said: “The initiatives now being discussed, together with the additional features offered by the new money‑transmission platform, reassure me that James’s vision aligns perfectly with the aims we set in those early days.

“I wish the board and GCS staff every success as they take the charity forward.”

Ellis said: “‘The creation of Guernsey Community Savings in 2020 was only possible because of Peter’s unique set of qualities that enabled him to create a talented team and the structure to tackle the issues facing the financially excluded in our island.

“I was delighted when he asked me to continue with his work and further expand his vision, which I share, to provide help in the form of bank accounts, debit cards and financial education and to realise our ambition to provide grants and soft loans where needed.”

He added he was pleased Neville agreed to remain involved with the charity as life president.

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Hong Kong’s first 5-year plan to tackle economic gaps, boost jobs: Paul Chan

Published

24 hours ago

June 14, 2026

Press Room

Hong Kong’s first 5-year plan to tackle economic gaps, boost jobs: Paul Chan

Hong Kong’s first five-year plan will map out concrete paths to address the city’s shortcomings and magnify socio-economic benefits, including how artificial intelligence can create quality jobs, the financial chief has said a day ahead of the public consultation on the blueprint.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said on Sunday that the key task for the blueprint would be the upgrading and transformation of the city’s economy, vowing to press ahead with the Northern Metropolis megaproject and make it a “spatial carrier for deploying emerging and future industries”.

“Hong Kong’s five-year plan aims not only to provide greater momentum for economic development and better application of technology, but also to promote more inclusive and equitable development in society, provide residents with more quality employment opportunities, and create a better life,” he said in his weekly blog.

The efforts to formulate Hong Kong’s first five-year plan are led by Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu, and the blueprint is expected to be finalised by the end of 2026.

Lee said last week that the public consultation for the outline would begin on Monday, confirming an earlier South China Morning Post report.

The public can submit views via dedicated websites during the two-month period, and the government would hold multiple sessions to gather input from various sectors, including lawmakers and industry representatives.

The blueprint aims at aligning Hong Kong’s development with China’s 15th five-year plan, which positions the city as an international hub for finance, shipping, trading, innovation and technology, offshore yuan and global talent.