Finance
Shock to ‘force’ RBA to cut interest rates further than expected: ‘More aggressive’
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could be pushed to take a “more aggressive” rate-cutting approach following the conflict in the Middle East and the potential oil price shock. Some analysts now expect the central bank could cut interest rates a further three times this year.
KPMG has estimated the conflict in the Middle East could shave between 0.15 and 0.20 per cent of the GDP from the Australian economy this year, should the world oil market react in a similar way to how it responded to the first Iraq War. It said an “oil shock” combined with the continuing threat of a global tariff fallout could “force” the RBA’s hand.
“The longer an oil price shock is sustained, the worse its impact is in terms of inflation outcomes, inflation expectations and short-term growth,” KPMG said.
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“This is because oil price shocks can be particularly damaging to an economy like Australia’s as the road transport sector — one of the heaviest users of oil in our economy — touches every single other sector (including itself) across the country.”
Global oil prices slid 7.2 per cent on Monday following Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on a US airbase. The Brent crude price fell to around $US70 a barrel. This has eased fears of major supply disruptions, but markets remain cautious as tensions continue.
KPMG said it had revised down its RBA cash rate forecasts and now expects a further three rate cuts this year, one more than its original expectation at the start of 2025, bringing the cash rate down to 3.1 per cent by the end of the year.
It expects the RBA to “look through” any short-term inflationary impact of any oil shock and noted this would be combined with core inflation now looking well entrenched in the target band and overall weakness in the Australian economy.
If the RBA cuts interest rates three times, homeowners could see their repayments drop by $265 a month. That’s based on someone with an average $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining.
Markets have an 86 per cent expectation of an interest rate change at the next RBA meeting in July and are almost fully priced in for three more reductions by the end of the year.
NAB is the only Big Four bank predicting an interest rate cut next month, with ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac expecting a cut in August.
Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said the RBA would be more focused on inflation than the oil price.

Finance
Fulton Financial’s (NASDAQ:FULT) Q2: Strong Sales
Regional banking company Fulton Financial (NASDAQ:FULT) reported Q2 CY2025 results topping the market’s revenue expectations , but sales fell by 1.9% year on year to $328.4 million. Its GAAP profit of $0.53 per share was 24.7% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy Fulton Financial? Find out in our full research report.
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Net Interest Income: $254.9 million vs analyst estimates of $255.1 million (5.5% year-on-year growth, in line)
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Net Interest Margin: 3.5% vs analyst estimates of 3.4% (6.2 basis point beat)
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Revenue: $328.4 million vs analyst estimates of $318 million (1.9% year-on-year decline, 3.3% beat)
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Efficiency Ratio: 57.1% vs analyst estimates of 61% (3.9 percentage point beat)
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EPS (GAAP): $0.53 vs analyst estimates of $0.43 (24.7% beat)
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Market Capitalization: $3.56 billion
“I’m proud that our team has delivered a new company record, with operating net income of $100.6 million, or $0.55 per diluted share, this past quarter,” said Curt Myers, Chairman and CEO of Fulton.
Tracing its roots back to 1882 in the heart of Pennsylvania, Fulton Financial (NASDAQ:FULT) is a financial holding company that provides banking, lending, and wealth management services to consumers and businesses across five Mid-Atlantic states.
In general, banks make money from two primary sources. The first is net interest income, which is interest earned on loans, mortgages, and investments in securities minus interest paid out on deposits. The second source is non-interest income, which can come from bank account, credit card, wealth management, investing banking, and trading fees.
Over the last five years, Fulton Financial grew its revenue at a solid 8.4% compounded annual growth rate. Its growth beat the average bank company and shows its offerings resonate with customers.
We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within financials, a half-decade historical view may miss recent interest rate changes, market returns, and industry trends. Fulton Financial’s annualized revenue growth of 8.3% over the last two years aligns with its five-year trend, suggesting its demand was predictably strong.
Note: Quarters not shown were determined to be outliers, impacted by outsized investment gains/losses that are not indicative of the recurring fundamentals of the business.
This quarter, Fulton Financial’s revenue fell by 1.9% year on year to $328.4 million but beat Wall Street’s estimates by 3.3%.
Net interest income made up 76.1% of the company’s total revenue during the last five years, meaning lending operations are Fulton Financial’s largest source of revenue.
Finance
Reeves hails ‘instant impact’ for aspiring homeowners as red tape is cut
First-time buyers are set to see an “instant impact” from the drive to kickstart economic growth, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to say.
More mortgages will be available at more than 4.5 times a buyer’s income following recent Bank of England recommendations that some lenders can offer more high loan-to-income mortgages if they choose to.
This will create up to 36,000 additional mortgages for first-time buyers over the first year, the Government said.
Britain’s biggest building society – Nationwide – announced last week that it is aiming to increase its high loan-to-income lending limit.
From Wednesday, eligible first-time buyers can apply for Nationwide’s Helping Hand mortgage with a £30,000 salary, down from £35,000, and joint applicants with a £50,000 combined salary – down from £55,000.
It is estimated this will support an additional 10,000 first-time buyers each year.
The changes will sit alongside the creation of a permanent mortgage guarantee scheme, delivering on a manifesto commitment, and a review of Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) lending rules that could allow prospective buyers’ records of paying rent on time to be used to show they can afford mortgage repayments.
Reforms will be outlined in Leeds ahead of Ms Reeves’s Mansion House speech on Tuesday evening.
Speaking in the City of London, the Chancellor is expected to say: “I welcome the recent changes the (Bank of England) Financial Policy Committee has announced to the loan-to-income limit on mortgage lending, which the PRA (Prudential Regulation Authority) and FCA are implementing immediately.
“With an instant impact for consumers, such as Nationwide offering its Helping Hand mortgage to more first-time buyers – supporting an additional 10,000 each year.”
Ms Reeves is expected to add: “Today, I have placed financial services at the heart of the Government’s growth mission.
“Recognising that Britain cannot succeed and meet its growth ambitions without a financial services sector that is fighting fit and thriving.
“And I have been clear on the benefits that that will drive.
“With a ripple effect that will drive investment in all sectors of our economy and put pounds in the pockets of working people.”
Nicholas Mendes, mortgage technical manager at broker John Charcol, said: “The decision to widen access to Nationwide’s Helping Hand mortgage by lowering the income thresholds will offer an immediate and practical benefit to a group of people who have often found themselves just on the wrong side of affordability criteria.
Finance
Fulton Financial Earnings: What To Look For From FULT
Regional banking company Fulton Financial (NASDAQ:FULT) will be announcing earnings results this Tuesday after the bell. Here’s what to expect.
Fulton Financial beat analysts’ revenue expectations by 1.8% last quarter, reporting revenues of $318.4 million, up 20.6% year on year. It was a very strong quarter for the company, with an impressive beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a decent beat of analysts’ tangible book value per share estimates.
Is Fulton Financial a buy or sell going into earnings? Read our full analysis here, it’s free.
This quarter, analysts are expecting Fulton Financial’s revenue to decline 5% year on year to $318 million, a reversal from the 22.4% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $0.45 per share.
Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business to stay the course heading into earnings. Fulton Financial has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates twice over the last two years.
With Fulton Financial being the first among its peers to report earnings this season, we don’t have anywhere else to look to get a hint at how this quarter will unravel for banks stocks. However, there has been positive investor sentiment in the segment, with share prices up 10.3% on average over the last month. Fulton Financial is up 11.2% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $19.80 (compared to the current share price of $19.11).
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