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Borrowers brace for more pain as housing market sputters: ‘Hold the line’

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Borrowers brace for more pain as housing market sputters: ‘Hold the line’
CBA has tipped inflation to rise almost a full percentage point thanks to the Iran war. (Source: Getty) · AFP via Getty Images

The Reserve Bank of Australia is facing an incredibly difficult call. The Board meets next week amid continued uncertainty over the war in Iran, and a week out from a Federal Budget expected to contain some big changes. Against that backdrop, it is expected to slug mortgage holders and businesses with a hike in the official cash rate.

But borrowers could – and should – be spared another blow, according to some prognosticators going against the grain. As house prices in major cities are rolling over, certain economic commentators think the RBA should stand pat.

A hike would be the third in a row, but the second since surging fuel prices took hold.

“Because that interest rate increase — or the equivalent — has already come through in higher petrol prices, I reckon they might hold the line,” said David Koch.

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The Economic Director at Compare the Market, and regular Yahoo Finance contributor, believes the bank could wait for at least some of the dust to settle and see what’s in the Federal Budget on May 12.

“They’ll be thinking about whether oil prices will stay high for longer, because if the Middle East crisis resolves itself, oil prices will drop significantly — and that would take a big chunk out of the inflation rate,” he said.

He also pointed to deteriorating conditions in the economy and historically glum consumer sentiment as factors that could reduce demand that caused inflation to tick back up this year in Australia’s productivity constrained economy.

“Consumer confidence has plunged and business confidence has fallen to almost record lows. Consumers cutting their spending is bad for the economy because small businesses start to suffer.

“And bosses not having confidence is bad for the economy too, because they won’t invest and they won’t hire people. So the Reserve Bank doesn’t want to crush consumers and businesses with another interest rate increase,” he said.

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The ANZAC Day weekend brought another soft result in auction clearance rates in the country’s biggest housing markets (with Adelaide being a notable exception). In Sydney, auction clearance rates on Saturday were 49 per cent (compared to 63 per cent a year ago) and in Melbourne was 56 per cent (down from 61 per cent the same time last year), according to Domain.

Economist and former advisor to the Gillard government, Stephen Koukoulas, also believes the right move is not to hike, and says a softening housing market could play a part in a surprise decision to hold.

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Banks must respond strategically to these six shifts – I by IMD

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Banks must respond strategically to these six shifts – I by IMD

To mark becoming a fully-fledged bank in the UK, the mega-fintech Revolut launched a TV advertising campaign featuring Irish comedian Graham Norton on a brown horse. As Norton explains cheekily at the end: “It’s a metaphor.” The advert, which is a parody of some of the advertising tropes historically used by legacy banks, is a fun watch, posing a simple but in fact consequential question – one that possibly keeps bank executives awake at night today: What is a bank?

It’s a clever provocation. In a few seconds, the ambitious digital startup turned financial services powerhouse challenges decades of accumulated assumptions about balance sheets, operating structures, and the very definition of financial intermediation. But do these hold water in 2026?

What will the banking leaders look like in five years?

Banking models, after all, were built for a different time, one defined by relatively stable geopolitics and smooth cross-border trade, fairly predictable regulations, centralized banking infrastructure, and long technology cycles. For decades, scale, capital strength, and regulatory privilege formed durable competitive moats. Banks sat at the center of client liquidity, orchestrating payments, lending, and risk with little serious threat to their primacy.

Today, those foundations are being relentlessly pounded and squeezed by a set of existential and overlapping forces that are galloping mercilessly forward. Economic statecraft is bumping up against revenue streams; intelligent automation and agentic AI are reshaping workflows, organizational structures, and decision-making. Open banking, enabled by regulations like the Revised Payment Services Directive (PSD2) in the EU and similar elsewhere, disintermediates certain key functions that banks used to control end-to-end.

Once more, the customer is king and queen – and banks must rebuild for heightened customer-centricity, looking to the likes of Netflix, Uber, and Apple for inspiration – while at the same time strengthening resilience and compliance with more complex regulations.     

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 I by IMD’s new report, The Future of Banking: The structural forces reshaping global banking – and the strategic decisions leaders cannot defer, identifies six structural shifts that will determine whether banks will be able to operate successfully over the coming decades or lose momentum and market share. The report examines these shifts through the perspectives of IMD professors, the real-world experience of bank leaders, and executives of breakthrough technology innovators, positioning as strategic partners to help banks build new competitive advantage.

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If you teach your kids just one financial lesson, it should be this

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If you teach your kids just one financial lesson, it should be this
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The power of saving and investing early cannot be overstated. It’s the most powerful financial action a young person can take.

Getting your children on this bandwagon early is the most valuable piece of financial advice you can give them. And you don’t need to be a financial whiz to do so.

Your teenager is not going to dedicate any thought whatsoever to saving for retirement. And they shouldn’t – that’s a bit ridiculous considering they haven’t even started their first full-time job.

Let’s get real: Young people have a lot of things they need to save up for, including college or university education, a first car, funds to move out of their parent’s house, or a down payment on a house or condo. These are important things to save for – it’s how we grow and advance in our lives.

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But saving for long-term goals – whether you want to call it retirement or just “later in life” money – should always be there alongside these other objectives, because for most people, starting early is what makes it possible to save enough.

Charting Retirement: Your retirement savings target is probably lower than you think

Many of my clients tell me that they wish they had started saving earlier in life. Most of them had never been told about the incredible power of time and compounding.

I was lucky because my first job was with a bank, where I was encouraged to get customers to sign up for an automatic purchase plan into mutual funds. I had one, too, and also had a group RRSP and a stock purchase plan. My savings came off my paycheque. Thirty years later those savings are still growing.

Saving for retirement is the biggest, most overwhelming savings goal there is, but for many people, it is achievable with good saving habits. While it is impossible to come up with a definitive number for how much your children will need to save for retirement because there are so many factors that go into this calculation, it’s fair to say that the number is at least a $1.5-million – and this is a lowball estimate.

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Let’s look at the example of $1.5-million – the concept is the same regardless of what the end goal is. There are many ways to get there. One way is to start small, putting away $50 a month from ages 16 to 22, then increasing it to $300 a month from ages 23 to 30, and $700 from age 31 to 64.

On the other hand, if you wait until age 40 to start saving, you will need to put away $2,200 a month until age 64. This means the late starter has to put away more than the early saver – much more.

The early saver only needs to put in about $320,000, while the late starter has to contribute $634,000, a difference of $314,000. That’s a lot of extra dollars you could be spending on something else.

(For our example, the $1.5-million figure is calculated assuming an average annual return of 7 per cent and that investment income is not taxed over this period.)

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To make it tangible, have your teenager play around with an online savings growth calculator, or they can ask AI to do the math for them by giving specific instructions about different savings amounts at different ages. Seeing how money grows over long time periods pictured on a graph is truly inspiring.

As soon as your teenager hits the age of majority in your province – which is 18 or 19 – have them open a tax-free savings account (TFSA) and put their accumulated savings in there. When they start working full-time, a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) comes into play. And they should always take advantage of any employer savings plans that offer a matching component.

Starting early with saving isn’t just about the power of time and compounding. It has other benefits too. Saving feels good. Knowing you have money set aside creates a sense of being financially responsible. And that inspires more of that kind of feel-good behaviour. In my experience as a financial planner, people who are good savers also tend to be more in control of their spending, and have no outstanding credit card debt. It’s a positive reinforcement loop.

Be the person who tells your kids about the power of time and compounding. Thirty years from now, they’ll thank you.


Anita Bruinsma is a Toronto-based certified financial planner and a parent of two teenage boys. You can find her at Clarity Personal Finance.

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Delphi Doubles Down on Ellington Financial Stake with $8.7 Million Buy | The Motley Fool

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Delphi Doubles Down on Ellington Financial Stake with .7 Million Buy | The Motley Fool

What happened

According to a May 13, 2026, SEC filing, Delphi Financial Group increased its stake in Ellington Financial (EFC 0.97%) by 686,639 shares during the first quarter. The estimated transaction value, calculated using the quarter’s average closing price, was $8.73 million. The value of the position rose by $6.89 million quarter over quarter, reflecting both additional shares and changes in the stock price.

What else to know

  • After the buy, Ellington Financial represents 7.53% of Delphi Financial Group’s 13F reportable AUM.
  • Top holdings after the filing:
    • NYSEMKT: JAAA: $32.57 million (14.7% of AUM)
    • NYSEMKT: ASHR: $19.27 million (8.7% of AUM)
    • NYSEMKT: FXI: $17.10 million (7.7% of AUM)
    • NYSE: TSM: $16.16 million (7.3% of AUM)
    • NYSE: EFC: $16.69 million (7.5% of AUM)
  • As of May 15, 2026, Ellington Financial shares were priced at $13.33, up 0.38% over the past year, lagging the S&P 500 by 24.83 percentage points.

Company Overview

Metric Value
Price (as of market close May 15, 2026) $13.33
Market capitalization $1.7 billion
Revenue (TTM) $306.51 million
Net income (TTM) $146.87 million

Company snapshot

  • Offers a diversified portfolio of mortgage-backed securities, residential and commercial mortgage loans, asset-backed securities, corporate debt and equity, and consumer loans.
  • Generates revenue from managing and acquiring a range of financial assets across mortgage, consumer, and corporate markets.
  • Serves a broad range of counterparties seeking exposure to mortgage-related and structured finance assets in the United States.

Ellington Financial is a real estate investment trust specializing in mortgage and consumer credit assets, focused on generating stable income through diversified investment strategies. The company leverages deep expertise in structured finance and credit markets to manage risk and capitalize on opportunities across various asset classes.

What this transaction means for investors

Delphi Financial Group recently acquired a significant additional stake in Ellington Financial. The company was already one of its largest holdings, but this move raises it from a No. 7 to No. 6 spot, indicating that it already thought highly of Ellington’s prospects and continues to do so.

One likely reason is Ellington’s record earnings in the first quarter of 2026. This indicates that business fundamentals are strong, and obviously, this is an important factor in any investor’s decision. It’s also been a consistent dividend payer, reliably issuing monthly dividends since 2010. This reliable cash flow is another reason Delphi might find Ellington attractive.

Earlier this year, Ellington issued common stock to redeem its Series A preferred shares, which carried interest costs above 9%. Replacing that expensive preferred equity with common shares reduced financing costs and benefited common shareholders, including Delphi.

For individual investors, Delphi’s increased stake implies a vote of confidence, which is reassuring. But all investments have inherent risk, and Ellington is no different. Financial entities like this company are affected by changes in interest rates, inflation, recessions, and other economic indicators. Investors need to consider these risks along with the positive signals before making an investment decision.

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Pamela Kock has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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