Finance

Close call tipped as Reserve Bank mulls third rate hike

Published

1 month ago

May 3, 2026

Close call tipped as Reserve Bank mulls third rate hike

A repeat of the Reserve Bank board’s split decision to raise interest rates in March could be on the cards as the central bank frets over the dual threats of high inflation and a stalling economy.

Financial markets and most economists are tipping a third straight rate hike on Tuesday.

ANZ Bank head of Australian economics Adam Boyton is part of the chorus predicting the Reserve Bank will lift the official cash rate to 4.35 per cent – the same level as its post-COVID-19 pandemic peak.

But he thinks it won’t be a lay down misere, with several members likely to vote in favour of keeping rates on hold.

The Reserve Bank hiked interest rates in March for the second consecutive month. (Susie Dodds/AAP PHOTOS)

The combination of a tight labour market, above-target underlying inflation and concerns inflation expectations could become unanchored all point in favour of a hike.

At the same time, the US-Israeli war with Iran’s effects on the economy could convince some board members more time is needed to weigh the impact on economic growth.

In March, four of the board’s nine members voted unsuccessfully to keep rates on hold, arguing there was too much uncertainty around the domestic growth outlook and how the conflict in the Middle East would evolve.

Uncertainty around the path forward would be reflected in the bank’s post-meeting communications, Mr Boyton said, with no forward guidance expected.

“We expect, however, a tilt in the language in the post-meeting statement that will open the door to an extended pause,” he said.

Financial markets put the chance of a hike on Tuesday at about three-quarters and have fully priced in at least one more rate rise by November.

Westpac forecasts another two hikes after May, in June and August.

But economists at ANZ, NAB, Commonwealth Bank, Deutsche Bank and HSBC think the Reserve Bank will stand pat after Tuesday.

Residential properties are seen in the southside suburb of Bulimba — Building approvals figures for March will be published on Monday. (Darren England/AAP PHOTOS)

“Whether the RBA delivers further tightening beyond May will depend on how quickly the economy weakens,” HSBC’s local chief economist Paul Bloxham said.

“We see a recent sharp weakening in sentiment as a clear signal that a downturn is already under way.

“Our central case is that, beyond the May hike, the RBA remains on hold.”

Updated economic forecasts by Reserve Bank staff, released simultaneously to the monetary policy decision, will be closely scrutinised for hints about the path forward for rates.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release household spending figures for March.

Economists predict a rise of 1.5 per cent, driven by higher fuel spending.

Building approvals figures for March will be published on Monday.

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Finance

Aussie lawyer warns of ‘middle class’ family battles after budget introduces ‘backdoor death tax’

Published

3 hours ago

June 14, 2026

Press Room

Aussie lawyer warns of ‘middle class’ family battles after budget introduces ‘backdoor death tax’

Family lawyers could be among the professions kept extra busy after the budget tax changes pass. · Getty

Australians are expected to pass on trillions of dollars in assets in the coming years as the grey tsunami of wealthy baby boomers crashes across the economy. But some of those expecting the windfall could be more likely to find themselves in a potential dispute with their loved ones as tax changes introduced to trusts commonly used in estate planning increase the likelihood of conflict.

Lawyers who deal with contested wills and estates foresee issues of conflict more likely to arise if the proposed changes go ahead. Alun Hill is the national director of the contested estates division of Armstrong Legal and believes there will be more reasons for discontent and for wills to be challenged due to the increased tax take being slipped in.

“It widens the battleground,” he told Yahoo Finance. “It just creates more reason why there might be someone who wants to contest a will.”

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Under the changes in Labor’s controversial budget, the unprecedented 30 per cent minimum level of capital gains tax will apply to the most common form of estate planning trust, known as a the testamentary discretionary trust.

While the government says its legislation pertaining to tax changes for trusts will be brought before parliament later this year, the slated changes would come into effect from July 1, 2028, and only specifically exclude fixed testamentary trusts. Fixed trusts are different from discretionary trusts as trustees don’t have the discretion to change the proportion of income a beneficiary is entitled to.

“Discretionary trusts aren’t just used as a tax minimisation vehicle,” Hill said. “Traditionally they’ve been used to provide the trustee with the ability to do what’s necessary to carry out the intentions of the testator (the person who wrote the will).”

While the finer details remain to be seen, the new tax floor regardless of the income of beneficiaries and the overall higher CGT on assets, will mean beneficiaries will see less passed on than previously expected – and that can be grounds for a challenge.

“What this really does is create the potential for claims being made against the estate by the spouse or by whoever the intended beneficiary is, who is no longer receiving adequate provision or appropriate provision under the testamentary trust,” Hill said.

While tax accountants, financial planners and business and property valuers are all expected to be kept extremely busy due to the added complexity being introduced by Labor’s new tax regime, family lawyers might also need to be braced for more work in the years ahead.

RELATED: Baby boomers urged to rethink $4.9 trillion Gen Z inheritance trend

A bigger tax take for the government likely means more contested wills, Alun Hill says. · Getty

Hill believes that regular Australian families will likely be the ones mostly captured by the new rules while the wealthiest individuals will continue to find workarounds and exotic structures to minimise their tax.

“They’re already talking to their financial planners and their estate planners about what to do. There’s no doubt they’ll be the ones who find a way through,” he said of the wealthiest Australians.

“The ones who won’t are probably the middle class. People who leave an estate with one or two properties, some shares in a portfolio and some money in a term deposit – those are the ones who are probably not going to undergo complex estate planning.

“Unfortunately it means that what may result is the testator’s intentions may not be carried through for a multitude of reasons,” Hill claimed.

He gave an example of someone who has two children who they want to provide equally for. If they had $2 million in shares and $2 million in property and they decide to give one child the home and the other the shares, it’s likely the shares will be taxed more heavily.

“One child receives an asset class that is heavily taxed in the new system and they actually receive a lot less in their hand, so they’re going to feel they’ve been shorted, and they’re probably going to want to contest,” Hill said.

“Although the changes are drastic… [in these cases] it widens the potential battleground for wills and the categories of people who would otherwise not be thinking about claiming against an estate, because it just changes the nature and value of estates.”

So-called ‘death tax’ could accelerate ‘living inheritance’ trend

The expected changes have some in the industry expecting more retired Aussies to pass on their wealth while they’re still alive. Findex financial adviser Jonathan Scholes told Yahoo Finance he thinks it will accelerate the ‘living inheritance’ trend he is already seeing among clients.

“If that change goes through, I think it’s going to trigger every client, basically, who’s got some wealth behind them, reviewing their estate plan and saying: Is this something we do before we leave the planet or something we do after we leave the planet?” he said.

“And I think there’s going to be a lot of people that are going to start thinking about going; ‘let’s do it earlier’.”

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Finance

Man who built Guernsey finance charity retires

Published

14 hours ago

June 14, 2026

Press Room

Man who built Guernsey finance charity retires

A charity has announced its new chair following the retirement of its founder.

Peter Neville worked for more than five years to set up Guernsey Community Savings, which first opened its doors in September 2020 to support people who were not able to access mainstream banking, staff said.

Former banker James Ellis is taking over the role. Neville said: “James brings exactly the right blend of financial services experience, charitable involvement and community understanding.”

The charity had helped about 200 people, who would otherwise have been excluded from the financial system access, to accounts and linked debit cards, and offered money‑management guidance to many more, staff said.

Neville said: “The initiatives now being discussed, together with the additional features offered by the new money‑transmission platform, reassure me that James’s vision aligns perfectly with the aims we set in those early days.

“I wish the board and GCS staff every success as they take the charity forward.”

Ellis said: “‘The creation of Guernsey Community Savings in 2020 was only possible because of Peter’s unique set of qualities that enabled him to create a talented team and the structure to tackle the issues facing the financially excluded in our island.

“I was delighted when he asked me to continue with his work and further expand his vision, which I share, to provide help in the form of bank accounts, debit cards and financial education and to realise our ambition to provide grants and soft loans where needed.”

He added he was pleased Neville agreed to remain involved with the charity as life president.

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Hong Kong’s first 5-year plan to tackle economic gaps, boost jobs: Paul Chan

Published

24 hours ago

June 14, 2026

Press Room

Hong Kong’s first 5-year plan to tackle economic gaps, boost jobs: Paul Chan

Hong Kong’s first five-year plan will map out concrete paths to address the city’s shortcomings and magnify socio-economic benefits, including how artificial intelligence can create quality jobs, the financial chief has said a day ahead of the public consultation on the blueprint.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said on Sunday that the key task for the blueprint would be the upgrading and transformation of the city’s economy, vowing to press ahead with the Northern Metropolis megaproject and make it a “spatial carrier for deploying emerging and future industries”.

“Hong Kong’s five-year plan aims not only to provide greater momentum for economic development and better application of technology, but also to promote more inclusive and equitable development in society, provide residents with more quality employment opportunities, and create a better life,” he said in his weekly blog.

The efforts to formulate Hong Kong’s first five-year plan are led by Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu, and the blueprint is expected to be finalised by the end of 2026.

Lee said last week that the public consultation for the outline would begin on Monday, confirming an earlier South China Morning Post report.

The public can submit views via dedicated websites during the two-month period, and the government would hold multiple sessions to gather input from various sectors, including lawmakers and industry representatives.

The blueprint aims at aligning Hong Kong’s development with China’s 15th five-year plan, which positions the city as an international hub for finance, shipping, trading, innovation and technology, offshore yuan and global talent.