In their bids to win the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” to lower energy prices, while Vice President Kamala Harris has assured she won’t ban fracking.
Those promises may not matter much in the near term. Energy prices are poised to drop, regardless of who wins, says one industry watcher.
“Whoever gets elected in November is going to be very fortunate in that they are going to be dealing with some of the most serious energy deflation … since 2020,” Tom Kloza, OPIS Global head of energy analysis, told Yahoo Finance, referring to the start of the pandemic lockdowns four years ago when US crude prices slumped as travel demand collapsed.
This past week was one of the year’s most volatile for the energy markets as oil touched its lowest level since 2021 before ticking higher on Wednesday. Year to date, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is down about 2%, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, is down more than 4%.
Gasoline prices have also fallen to their lowest level since February, with the national average at $3.24 per gallon, according to AAA.
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Prices are expected to go lower as the industry soon switches to a cheaper winter-grade gasoline. Analysts predict the national average will dip below $3 per gallon in the coming weeks barring an unforeseen event.
“These sub-$3 prices are sure to boost consumer sentiment going into the fall,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Yahoo Finance.
Weak demand out of China, the biggest importer of oil, has been the main driver of declining crude prices. The country has been battling a housing crisis while shifting toward electric vehicles and more natural gas consumption.
Cracks in the US economy and Europe have also weighed on the markets, keeping some speculators notably at bay.
“What happened this summer and what continues to happen is that you do not have speculators buying futures and options contracts anymore,” said Kloza. “The fact that we didn’t see more speculative money coming into the market … that might represent a real sea change for oil.”
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“Right now, financial participation in oil markets is probably as low as it’s been since oil became an asset class,” said Kloza.
In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
The fall in oil prices has been so rapid that Wall Street analysts have been forced to revise down their forecasts. On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price target for the second time in a matter of weeks, citing risks of “considerable demand weakness.”
The analysts forecast Brent will average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised outlook of $80 issued in late August.
Oil demand growth forecasts have also come down. The International Energy Agency cut its outlook for 2024, citing Chinese oil demand “firmly in contraction.”
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The revision came the same week oil alliance OPEC slightly trimmed its own oil demand forecast. Despite the revision, OPEC’s expectations are still near double other industry estimates.
The oil alliance spearheaded by Saudi Arabia has been eager to bring back more of its supply by unwinding some of its production cuts, which have helped keep a floor on prices.
However, the cartel recently delayed the reintroduction of barrels initially slated for October given the slump in oil. The postponement didn’t do much to boost prices.
“OPEC+ still has a significant amount of oil that is just waiting to return to the market. And I think that’s the concern — is there really that demand to really satisfy and absorb that increased oil that is going to come back to the market sometime soon?” Tortoise senior portfolio manager Rob Thummel told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.
In a nod to centrists, during Tuesday’s event Harris underscored record production in the US, the largest oil and gas producer in the world.
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“We have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” said Harris.
Meanwhile, at rallies, Trump has promised to produce even more oil in order to cut energy prices in half and bring gasoline below $2 per gallon, though analysts expect producers to keep his “drill, baby, drill” vow in check if prices go too low.
On average, companies need the price of US crude to be at least $64 per barrel in order to profitably drill a new well, and $39 for existing ones, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve survey.
With WTI trading near $69, production is expected to continue growing amid technological breakthroughs. The US reached peak production last year despite declining US drilling activity because new wells are more efficient, according to government data. US oil production next year is expected to reach another record level, given advances in horizontal drilling and fracking.
“Ukraine war, the COVID lockdowns, those are the things that shaped oil prices in the last four years,” said OPIS’s Kloza.
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“The more likely thing is that we’re going to see much more modest prices next year, and we’ll see oil trade in [on] a lotquieter terms than we have for the last three years,” he added.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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My spreadsheet reviewed a WalletHub ranking of financial distress for the residents of 100 U.S. cities, including 17 in California. The analysis compared local credit scores, late bill payments, bankruptcy filings and online searches for debt or loans to quantify where individuals had the largest money challenges.
When California cities were divided into three geographic regions – Southern California, the Bay Area, and anything inland – the most challenges were often found far from the coast.
The average national ranking of the six inland cities was 39th worst for distress, the most troubled grade among the state’s slices.
Bakersfield received the inland region’s worst score, ranking No. 24 highest nationally for financial distress. That was followed by Sacramento (30th), San Bernardino (39th), Stockton (43rd), Fresno (45th), and Riverside (52nd).
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Southern California’s seven cities overall fared better, with an average national ranking of 56th largest financial problems.
However, Los Angeles had the state’s ugliest grade, ranking fifth-worst nationally for monetary distress. Then came San Diego at 22nd-worst, then Long Beach (48th), Irvine (70th), Anaheim (71st), Santa Ana (85th), and Chula Vista (89th).
Monetary challenges were limited in the Bay Area. Its four cities average rank was 69th worst nationally.
San Jose had the region’s most distressed finances, with a No. 50 worst ranking. That was followed by Oakland (69th), San Francisco (72nd), and Fremont (83rd).
The results remind us that inland California’s affordability – it’s home to the state’s cheapest housing, for example – doesn’t fully compensate for wages that typically decline the farther one works from the Pacific Ocean.
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A peek inside the scorecard’s grades shows where trouble exists within California.
Credit scores were the lowest inland, with little difference elsewhere. Late payments were also more common inland. Tardy bills were most difficult to find in Northern California.
Bankruptcy problems also were bubbling inland, but grew the slowest in Southern California. And worrisome online searches were more frequent inland, while varying only slightly closer to the Pacific.
Note: Across the state’s 17 cities in the study, the No. 53 average rank is a middle-of-the-pack grade on the 100-city national scale for monetary woes.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
The up-and-coming fintech scored a pair of fourth-quarter beats.
Diversified fintech Chime Financial(CHYM +12.88%) was playing a satisfying tune to investors on Thursday. The company’s stock flew almost 14% higher that trading session, thanks mostly to a fourth quarter that featured notably higher-than-expected revenue guidance.
Sweet music
Chime published its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results just after market close on Wednesday. For the former period, the company’s revenue was $596 million, bettering the same quarter of 2024 by 25%. The company’s strongest revenue stream, payments, rose 17% to $396 million. Its take from platform-related activity rose more precipitously, advancing 47% to $200 million.
Image source: Getty Images.
Meanwhile, Chime’s net loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) more than doubled. It was $45 million, or $0.12 per share, compared with a fourth-quarter 2024 deficit of $19.6 million.
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On average, analysts tracking the stock were modeling revenue below $578 million and a deeper bottom-line loss of $0.20 per share.
In its earnings release, Chime pointed to the take-up of its Chime Card as a particular catalyst for growth. Regarding the product, the company said, “Among new member cohorts, over half are adopting Chime Card, and those members are putting over 70% of their Chime spend on the product, which earns materially higher take rates compared to debit.”
Today’s Change
(12.88%) $2.72
Current Price
$23.83
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Key Data Points
Market Cap
$7.9B
Day’s Range
$22.30 – $24.63
52wk Range
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$16.17 – $44.94
Volume
562K
Avg Vol
3.3M
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Gross Margin
86.34%
Double-digit growth expected
Chime management proffered revenue and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) guidance for full-year 2026. The company expects to post a top line of $627 million to $637 million, which would represent at least 21% growth over the 2024 result. Adjusted EBITDA should be $380 million to $400 million. No net income forecasts were provided in the earnings release.
It isn’t easy to find a niche in the financial industry, which is crowded with companies offering every imaginable type of service to clients. Yet Chime seems to be achieving that, as the Chime Card is clearly a hit among the company’s target demographic of clientele underserved by mainstream banks. This growth stock is definitely worth considering as a buy.
ROCHESTER, N.Y. — Student athletes are now earning real money thanks to name, image, likeness deals — but with that opportunity comes the need for financial preparation.
Noah Collins Howard and Dayshawn Preston are two high school juniors with Division I offers on the table. Both are chasing their dreams on the field, and both are navigating something brand new off of it — their finances.
“When it comes to NIL, some people just want the money, and they just spend it immediately. Well, you’ve got to know how to take care of your money. And again, you need to know how to grow it because you don’t want to just spend it,” said Collins Howard.
What You Need To Know
High school athletes with Division I prospects are learning to manage NIL money before they even reach college
Glory2Glory Sports Agency and Advantage Federal Credit Union have partnered to give young athletes access to financial literacy tools and credit-building resources
Financial experts warn that starting money habits early is key to long-term stability for student athletes entering the NIL era
Preston said the experience has already been eye-opening.
“It’s very important. Especially my first time having my own card and bank account — so that’s super exciting,” Preston said.
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For many young athletes, the money comes before the knowledge. That’s where Glory2Glory Sports Agency in Rochester comes in — helping athletes prepare for life outside of sports.
“College sports is now pro sports. These kids are going from one extreme to the other financially, and it’s important for them to have the tools necessary to navigate that massive shift,” said Antoine Hyman, CEO of Glory2Glory Sports Agency.
Through their Students for Change program, athletes get access to student checking accounts, financial literacy courses and credit-building tools — all through a partnership with Advantage Federal Credit Union.
“It’s never too early to start. We have youth accounts, student checking accounts — they were all designed specifically for students and the youth,” said Diane Miller, VP of marketing and PR at Advantage Federal Credit Union.
The goal goes beyond what’s in their pocket today. It’s about building habits that will protect them for life.
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“If you don’t start young, you’re always catching up. The younger you start them, the better off they’re going to be on that financial path,” added Nihada Donohew, executive vice president of Advantage Federal Credit Union.
For these athletes, having the right support system makes all the difference.
“It’s really great to have a support system around you. Help you get local deals with the local shops,” Preston added.
Collins-Howard said the program has given him a broader perspective beyond just the game.
“It gives me a better understanding of how to take care of myself and prepare myself for the future of giving back to the community,” Collins-Howard said.
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“These high school kids need someone to legitimately advocate their skills, their character and help them pick the right space. Everything has changed now,” Hyman added.
NIL opened the door. Programs like this one make sure these athletes walk through it — with a plan.
