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‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst

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‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst

In their bids to win the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” to lower energy prices, while Vice President Kamala Harris has assured she won’t ban fracking.

Those promises may not matter much in the near term. Energy prices are poised to drop, regardless of who wins, says one industry watcher.

“Whoever gets elected in November is going to be very fortunate in that they are going to be dealing with some of the most serious energy deflation … since 2020,” Tom Kloza, OPIS Global head of energy analysis, told Yahoo Finance, referring to the start of the pandemic lockdowns four years ago when US crude prices slumped as travel demand collapsed.

This past week was one of the year’s most volatile for the energy markets as oil touched its lowest level since 2021 before ticking higher on Wednesday. Year to date, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is down about 2%, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, is down more than 4%.

Gasoline prices have also fallen to their lowest level since February, with the national average at $3.24 per gallon, according to AAA.

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Prices are expected to go lower as the industry soon switches to a cheaper winter-grade gasoline. Analysts predict the national average will dip below $3 per gallon in the coming weeks barring an unforeseen event.

“These sub-$3 prices are sure to boost consumer sentiment going into the fall,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Yahoo Finance.

Weak demand out of China, the biggest importer of oil, has been the main driver of declining crude prices. The country has been battling a housing crisis while shifting toward electric vehicles and more natural gas consumption.

Cracks in the US economy and Europe have also weighed on the markets, keeping some speculators notably at bay.

“What happened this summer and what continues to happen is that you do not have speculators buying futures and options contracts anymore,” said Kloza. “The fact that we didn’t see more speculative money coming into the market … that might represent a real sea change for oil.”

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“Right now, financial participation in oil markets is probably as low as it’s been since oil became an asset class,” said Kloza.

In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo)

In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The fall in oil prices has been so rapid that Wall Street analysts have been forced to revise down their forecasts. On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price target for the second time in a matter of weeks, citing risks of “considerable demand weakness.”

The analysts forecast Brent will average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised outlook of $80 issued in late August.

Oil demand growth forecasts have also come down. The International Energy Agency cut its outlook for 2024, citing Chinese oil demand “firmly in contraction.”

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The revision came the same week oil alliance OPEC slightly trimmed its own oil demand forecast. Despite the revision, OPEC’s expectations are still near double other industry estimates.

The oil alliance spearheaded by Saudi Arabia has been eager to bring back more of its supply by unwinding some of its production cuts, which have helped keep a floor on prices.

However, the cartel recently delayed the reintroduction of barrels initially slated for October given the slump in oil. The postponement didn’t do much to boost prices.

“OPEC+ still has a significant amount of oil that is just waiting to return to the market. And I think that’s the concern — is there really that demand to really satisfy and absorb that increased oil that is going to come back to the market sometime soon?” Tortoise senior portfolio manager Rob Thummel told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.

In a nod to centrists, during Tuesday’s event Harris underscored record production in the US, the largest oil and gas producer in the world.

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“We have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” said Harris.

Meanwhile, at rallies, Trump has promised to produce even more oil in order to cut energy prices in half and bring gasoline below $2 per gallon, though analysts expect producers to keep his “drill, baby, drill” vow in check if prices go too low.

On average, companies need the price of US crude to be at least $64 per barrel in order to profitably drill a new well, and $39 for existing ones, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve survey.

With WTI trading near $69, production is expected to continue growing amid technological breakthroughs. The US reached peak production last year despite declining US drilling activity because new wells are more efficient, according to government data. US oil production next year is expected to reach another record level, given advances in horizontal drilling and fracking.

“Ukraine war, the COVID lockdowns, those are the things that shaped oil prices in the last four years,” said OPIS’s Kloza.

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“The more likely thing is that we’re going to see much more modest prices next year, and we’ll see oil trade in [on] a lot quieter terms than we have for the last three years,” he added.

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

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Bérangère Michel announced as BBC Group Chief Financial Officer

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Bérangère Michel announced as BBC Group Chief Financial Officer

The BBC has announced that Bérangère Michel has been appointed to the role of Group Chief Financial Officer.

Bérangère brings extensive experience from her 16-year career at the John Lewis Partnership, where she held senior roles including Chief Financial Officer, Customer Service Executive Director, Operations Director and Finance & Strategy Director.

Prior to joining the John Lewis Partnership, Bérangère spent 11 years at the Royal Mail Group in a number of finance, change and strategy roles, including as Finance Director of the property division.

In an expanded role as BBC Group Chief Financial Officer, Bérangère will be responsible for the overall BBC Group financial strategy, with a remit across BBC Public Service, BBC Studios and the BBC’s commercial subsidiaries. She will play a leadership role and will sit on both the Executive Committee and, for the first time, the Board.

This position will strengthen the BBC’s financial leadership, support its transformation, and make the best use of the licence fee and commercial opportunities. Bérangère will report to the Director-General and will take up the role in early January.

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Director-General Tim Davie says: “Bérangère brings a wealth of experience from her time at the John Lewis Partnership and will play a critical role in shaping our new financial strategy. I’m pleased to welcome her to the BBC, and to both the Executive Committee and Board.

“Bérangère’s appointment to this expanded role comes at an important time for the BBC, as we look ahead to Charter renewal and continue to accelerate our transformation to deliver outstanding value for our audiences.”

BBC Chair Samir Shah says: “The role of Group Chief Financial Officer will be hugely important as we build a BBC for the future, and I look forward to welcoming Bérangère to the Board.”

Bérangère Michel says: “I am delighted to be joining the BBC, an institution whose purpose and mission I have always admired. It’s a privilege to be part of shaping its exciting future at such a crucial moment and I cannot wait to get started.”

BBC Press Office

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ATI Promotes Longtime Leader to CFO and SVP of Finance

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ATI Promotes Longtime Leader to CFO and SVP of Finance

ATI Inc., a Dallas-based manufacturer of high-performance materials for the aerospace and defense industries, announced that James Robert “Rob” Foster will be promoted to senior vice president of finance and chief financial officer, effective January 1, 2026.

Foster succeeds Don Newman, who will serve as strategic advisor to the CEO beginning January 1. As previously announced, Newman will retire on March 1, 2026, and serve in an advisory capacity in that time to allow for a smooth transition.

“Rob is a proven P&L leader with enterprise-wide experience in the areas that matter most to ATI’s continued growth,” Kim Fields, president and CEO, said in a statement. “He brings deep expertise not only in finance but also as an operational leader. Rob played a pivotal role in the successful Specialty Rolled Products transformation, consistently helping ATI to deliver strong returns and shareholder value. I look forward to partnering with him as we enter our next phase of profitable growth.”

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Foster, a longtime ATI leader, brings both operational expertise and financial discipline to the CFO role, the company said. He most recently served as president of ATI’s specialty alloys & components business, where he improved efficiency, grew capacity, and advanced the company’s role as a global leader in exotic alloys. Foster previously served as vice president of Finance, Supply Chain, and Capital Projects, overseeing ATI’s global finance organization, capital deployment processes, and enterprise supply chain performance. Earlier in his career, he led Finance for both ATI operating segments and the Forged Products business.

“I’m honored to become ATI’s next CFO,” said Foster. “ATI is well-positioned with a strong balance sheet, focused strategy, and significant opportunities ahead. I look forward to working with our team to drive disciplined investment, operational excellence, and long-term value creation for our shareholders.”

Newman added, “Rob is an exceptional leader who understands ATI’s strategy, operations, and financial drivers. He has delivered transformative results across the organization. I look forward to supporting a seamless transition as we pursue this next step in our succession planning.”

Before joining ATI in 2012, Foster held senior finance roles at API Technologies Corp. and Spectrum Control Inc., where he led ERP implementations, acquisition integrations, and internal control enhancements. He began his career as an auditor at Ernst & Young (EY).

ATI produces high-performance materials and solutions for the global aerospace and defense markets, and critical applications in electronics, medical, and specialty energy. 

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R E A D   N E X T

  • The company said Keith Schroeder brings more than 40 years of experience in accounting, corporate control and reporting, finance, operations, and CEO and CFO strategic roles.

  • James Cook announced his retirement after 24 years of service and will officially retire on June 30. James Gilligan will take his new post, effective June 16.

  • Anthony DiSilvestro joins KDP at a pivotal moment as it moves to close its $18 billion acquisition of Netherlands-based JDE Peet’s. His “significant” M&A experience will advance the combined company’s integration and its ultimate split into two “winning companies,” CEO Tim Cofer said.

  • Donna Guy brings more than 25 years of experience in financial leadership across public and private companies to her new position. 

  • Last week, Irving-based Caterpillar marked its 100th anniversary year with celebrations throughout the U.S. commemorating “a monumental moment” in the company’s history. The company officially turns 100 on April 15, marking a century of “customer-centric innovation and industry-leading transformation”

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Abu Dhabi seeks to build bridge between new media & finance – The Times of India

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Abu Dhabi seeks to build bridge between new media & finance – The Times of India

ABU DHABI: Instead of waiting for the future of media, Abu Dhabi is building it. The city played host this week to leading names from media and entertainment industries at the Bridge Summit, aptly named for seeking to position the emirate at the intersection between new-age media, innovation and investment.The three-day event at Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre from Dec 8 to 10 buzzed with energy, new ideas, collaborations and MoU deals as thousands of content creators, media brands, communicators, tech developers, AI innovators, investors and academics — who have been working in isolation — converged to brainstorm ideas, analyse future trends in the media industry and discuss ways to monetise them. How to get around the associated risks of privacy violation, fake news and narratives, defamatory content and online harassment were a natural corollary to the discussions.The idea of Bridge Summit originated at a lunch meeting in Abu Dhabi earlier this year between Sheikh Abdulla Bin Mohammed Bin Butti Al Hamed, chairman of UAE National Media Office, and Richard Attias, the Moroccan events producer associated with the Clinton Global Initiative, Nobel Laureates Conference and Davos Forum. The two discussed how UAE could give media, creators, tech innovators, social media outlets and investors a platform to connect and build the future of media. Eight months later, that dream turned into reality with Bridge Summit.Al Hamed, in his opening address, outlined Bridge Summit’s mission to unite media, technology, finance, and culture in building a more trusted, inclusive, and resilient information order.Speaking to TOI on the sidelines of the summit, Jamal Mohammed Obaid Al Kaabi, DG, UAE National Media Office and Bridge Alliance vice-chairman, said the forum seeks to secure a win-win situation for all, be it govts, media, content creators, social media platforms, gamers, investors and technology providers. “We are trying to help everyone — those who have a story to reach production, a company to reach a customer and govts to understand what’s happening in the market”.He added: “We believe that Bridge can be the brand that people will trust and look at in the future. We can connect it with media initiatives around the world. We believe that positive narrative can be supported through Bridge”.The global media and entertainment industry generated over $2.8 trillion last year, with gaming alone rivaling film and television at nearly $200 billion. Streaming continues to reshape consumption, while nearly 70% of content creators are already using AI tools.Rubbing shoulders at the summit were former heads of state, journalists, representatives of social media platforms, AI innovators, gaming developers, entrepreneurs and media influencers from across the globe; actors Priyanka Chopra Jonas and Idris Elba and footballer Gerard Pique lent it star power.Over three days of fireside chats, panel discussions, workshops and MoU signing, content creators and influencers took lessons from experts and peers on how to tell their stories better and hold their audience’s attention till the last frame.With artificial intelligence (AI) tools revolutionising the media space and content creation industry, engagements delved into how to maintain a judicious balance between human intelligence and artificial intelligence while tailoring content to suit users’ preferences and attention span.Sessions reflected on how the traditional print and TV journalism is being rapidly taken over by digital news content. Justin Smith, CEO of independent global news company Semafor, predicted that human journalist will continue to be relevant as the primary resource for original information, but must learn to harness the power of AI to add value. Richard Attias, who is on the Bridge board of directors, had a word of caution: “Human intelligence needs to always challenge artificial intelligence. We should not be losing the control of AI, which is like a robot”.According to UK journalist and broadcaster Emily Maitlis, agenda-based journalism is inevitable in the age of social media as one with a louder voice and reach, who can put out his version of the story more convincingly, tends to control the narrative. Adeline Hulin, chief of media and information literacy unit at Unesco, revealed that a global survey had found that 62% users don’t do any fact-checking before forwarding information online; most content creators are unaware of the international standards of freedom of expression; and just 20% users report hate speech. “Unesco has developed a global curriculum for media information literacy. We are working to integrate it with formal education and getting local partners to organise hackathons,” she said.Former deputy PM of UK Oliver Dowden advocated industry-led responsibility over sweeping regulation, saying there should be “clear guardrails” as creator content becomes the primary source of information for young audiences.Al Kaabi said Bridge Summit is just the beginning and “pop up” events will be held each coming quarter across America, Asia, Europe and Africa. “We want to hold a mini-Bridge in India. Also, there shall be more of Bollywood, not just Priyanka, at the next edition of the summit here,” he said.(The writer was in Abu Dhabi at the invitation of Bridge Alliance)

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