Connect with us

Finance

‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst

Published

on

‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst

In their bids to win the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” to lower energy prices, while Vice President Kamala Harris has assured she won’t ban fracking.

Those promises may not matter much in the near term. Energy prices are poised to drop, regardless of who wins, says one industry watcher.

“Whoever gets elected in November is going to be very fortunate in that they are going to be dealing with some of the most serious energy deflation … since 2020,” Tom Kloza, OPIS Global head of energy analysis, told Yahoo Finance, referring to the start of the pandemic lockdowns four years ago when US crude prices slumped as travel demand collapsed.

This past week was one of the year’s most volatile for the energy markets as oil touched its lowest level since 2021 before ticking higher on Wednesday. Year to date, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is down about 2%, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, is down more than 4%.

Gasoline prices have also fallen to their lowest level since February, with the national average at $3.24 per gallon, according to AAA.

Advertisement

Prices are expected to go lower as the industry soon switches to a cheaper winter-grade gasoline. Analysts predict the national average will dip below $3 per gallon in the coming weeks barring an unforeseen event.

“These sub-$3 prices are sure to boost consumer sentiment going into the fall,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Yahoo Finance.

Weak demand out of China, the biggest importer of oil, has been the main driver of declining crude prices. The country has been battling a housing crisis while shifting toward electric vehicles and more natural gas consumption.

Cracks in the US economy and Europe have also weighed on the markets, keeping some speculators notably at bay.

“What happened this summer and what continues to happen is that you do not have speculators buying futures and options contracts anymore,” said Kloza. “The fact that we didn’t see more speculative money coming into the market … that might represent a real sea change for oil.”

Advertisement

“Right now, financial participation in oil markets is probably as low as it’s been since oil became an asset class,” said Kloza.

In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo)

In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The fall in oil prices has been so rapid that Wall Street analysts have been forced to revise down their forecasts. On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price target for the second time in a matter of weeks, citing risks of “considerable demand weakness.”

The analysts forecast Brent will average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised outlook of $80 issued in late August.

Oil demand growth forecasts have also come down. The International Energy Agency cut its outlook for 2024, citing Chinese oil demand “firmly in contraction.”

Advertisement

The revision came the same week oil alliance OPEC slightly trimmed its own oil demand forecast. Despite the revision, OPEC’s expectations are still near double other industry estimates.

The oil alliance spearheaded by Saudi Arabia has been eager to bring back more of its supply by unwinding some of its production cuts, which have helped keep a floor on prices.

However, the cartel recently delayed the reintroduction of barrels initially slated for October given the slump in oil. The postponement didn’t do much to boost prices.

“OPEC+ still has a significant amount of oil that is just waiting to return to the market. And I think that’s the concern — is there really that demand to really satisfy and absorb that increased oil that is going to come back to the market sometime soon?” Tortoise senior portfolio manager Rob Thummel told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.

In a nod to centrists, during Tuesday’s event Harris underscored record production in the US, the largest oil and gas producer in the world.

Advertisement

“We have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” said Harris.

Meanwhile, at rallies, Trump has promised to produce even more oil in order to cut energy prices in half and bring gasoline below $2 per gallon, though analysts expect producers to keep his “drill, baby, drill” vow in check if prices go too low.

On average, companies need the price of US crude to be at least $64 per barrel in order to profitably drill a new well, and $39 for existing ones, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve survey.

With WTI trading near $69, production is expected to continue growing amid technological breakthroughs. The US reached peak production last year despite declining US drilling activity because new wells are more efficient, according to government data. US oil production next year is expected to reach another record level, given advances in horizontal drilling and fracking.

“Ukraine war, the COVID lockdowns, those are the things that shaped oil prices in the last four years,” said OPIS’s Kloza.

Advertisement

“The more likely thing is that we’re going to see much more modest prices next year, and we’ll see oil trade in [on] a lot quieter terms than we have for the last three years,” he added.

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

Advertisement

Finance

Military Troops and Retirees: Here’s the First Financial Step to Take in 2026

Published

on

Military Troops and Retirees: Here’s the First Financial Step to Take in 2026

Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of New Year, New You, a weeklong look at your financial health headed into 2026. 

You get your W-2 in January and realize you either owe thousands in taxes or get a massive refund. Both mean your withholding was wrong all year.

Most service members set their tax withholding once during in-processing and never look at it again. Life changes. You get married, have kids, buy a house or pick up a second job. Your tax situation changes, but your withholding stays the same.

Adjusting your withholding takes five minutes and can save you from owing the IRS or giving the government an interest-free loan all year.

Use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator First

Before changing anything, run your numbers through the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator at www.irs.gov/individuals/tax-withholding-estimator. The calculator asks about your filing status, income, current withholding, deductions and credits. It tells you whether you need to adjust.

Advertisement

The calculator considers multiple jobs, spouse income and other factors that affect your tax bill. Running it takes about 10 minutes and prevents you from withholding too much or too little.

Read More: The Cost of Skipping Sick Call: How Active-Duty Service Members Can Protect Future VA Claims

Changing Withholding in myPay (Most Services)

Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force and Marine Corps members use myPay at mypay.dfas.mil. Log in and click Federal Withholding. Click the yellow pencil icon to edit.

The page lets you enter information about multiple jobs, change dependents, add additional income, make deductions or withhold extra tax. You can see when the changes take effect on the blue bar at the top of the page.

Changes typically show up on your next pay statement. If you make changes early in the month, they might appear on your mid-month paycheck. If you make them later, expect them on the end-of-month check.

Advertisement

State tax withholding works differently. DFAS can only withhold for states with signed agreements. Changes require submitting DD Form 2866 through myPay or by mail. Not all states allow DFAS to withhold state tax.

Changing Withholding in Direct Access (Coast Guard)

Coast Guard members use Direct Access at hcm.direct-access.uscg.mil. The system processes changes the same way as myPay. Log in, navigate to tax withholding and update your information.

Coast Guard members can also submit written requests using IRS Form W-4. Mail completed forms to the Pay and Personnel Center in Topeka, Kansas, or submit them through your Personnel and Administration office.

Read More: Here’s Why January Is the Best Time to File Your VA Disability Claim

When to Adjust Withholding

Check your withholding when major life events happen. Marriage or divorce changes your filing status. Having kids adds dependents. Buying a house affects deductions. A spouse starting or stopping work changes household income.

Advertisement

Military-specific events matter, too. Deploying to a combat zone makes some pay tax-free. PCS moves change state tax situations. Separation from service means losing military income but potentially gaining civilian income.

Check at the start of each year, even if your circumstances seemingly stayed the same. Tax laws change. Brackets adjust for inflation. Your situation might be different even if it seems the same.

The Balance

Withholding too little means owing taxes in April plus potential penalties. Withholding too much means getting a refund but losing access to that money all year.

Some people like big refunds and treat it like forced savings. Others would rather have the money in each paycheck to pay bills, invest or set aside in normal savings.

Neither approach is wrong. What matters is that your withholding matches your tax situation and your preference for how you receive your money.

Advertisement

Run the estimator. Adjust your withholding. Check it annually. This simple process prevents tax surprises.

Previously In This series:

Part 1: 2026 Guide to Pay and Allowances for Military Service Members, Veterans and Retirees

Part 2: Understanding All the Deductions on Your 2026 Military Leave and Earnings Statements

Part 3: Should You Let the Military Set Aside Allotments from Your Pay?

Part 4: This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise

Advertisement

Stay on Top of Your Veteran Benefits

Military benefits are always changing. Keep up with everything from pay to health care by subscribing to Military.com, and get access to up-to-date pay charts and more with all latest benefits delivered straight to your inbox.

Story Continues

Continue Reading

Finance

The case against saving when building a business

Published

on

The case against saving when building a business
Listen and subscribe to The Big Idea with Elizabeth Gore on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcast.Would you rather play it safe, or grow your business? This expert breaks down why investing is everything.This week on The Big Idea with Elizabeth Gore, Howard Enterprise founder and the Wall Street Trapper Leon Howard joins the show to answer the question: How can I use a Wall Street mindset for my business? Howard offers expert insight on why it is absolutely critical that founders take risks and invest capital, versus just saving.To learn more, click here. Yahoo Finance’s The Big Idea with Elizabeth Gore takes you on a journey with America’s entrepreneurs as they navigate the world of small business. This post was written by Lauren Pokedoff
Continue Reading

Finance

This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise

Published

on

This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise

Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of New Year, New You, a weeklong look at your financial health headed into 2026. 

The military’s regularly occurring pay raises provide an opportunity that many civilians only dream of. Not only do the annual percentage increases troops receive each January provide frequent chances to rebalance financial priorities — savings vs. current standard of living — so do time-in-service increases for every two years of military service, not to mention promotions.

Two experts in military pay and personal finance — a retired admiral and a retired general, each at the head of their respective military mutual aid associations — advised taking a similarly predictable approach to managing each new raise: 

Cut it in half.

In one variation of the strategy, a service member simply adds to their savings: whatever it is they prioritize. In the other, consistent increases in retirement contributions soon add up to a desirable threshold.

Advertisement

Rainy Day Fund

The active military’s 3.8% pay raise in 2026 came in a percentage point higher than retirees and disabled veterans received, meaning troops “should be able to afford the market basket of goods that the average American is afforded,” said Michael Meese, a retired Army brigadier general and president of Armed Forces Mutual.

While the veterans’ lower rate relies exclusively on the rate of inflation, Congress has the option to offer more; and in doing so is making up for recent years when the pay raise didn’t keep up with unusually high inflation, Meese said.

“So this is helping us catch up a little bit.”

He also speculated that the government shutdown “upset a lot of people” and that widespread support of the 3.8% raise across party lines and in both houses of Congress showed “that it has confidence in the military and wants to take care of the military and restore government credibility with service men and women,” Meese said.

His suggestion for managing pay raises: 

Advertisement

“If you’ve been living already without the pay raise and now you see this pay raise, if you can,” Meese advised, “I always said … you should save half and spend half,” Meese said. “That way, you don’t instantly increase your spending habits just because you see more money at the end of the month.” 

A service member who makes only $1,000 every two weeks, for example, gets another $38 every two weeks starting this month. Put $19 into savings, and you can put the other $19 toward “beer and pizza or whatever you’re going to do,” Meese said.

“That way you’re putting money away for a rainy day,” he said — to help prepare for a vacation, for example, “so you’re not putting those on a credit card.” If you set aside only $25 more per pay period, “at the end of the year, you’ve got an extra $300 in there, and that may be great for Christmas vacation or Christmas presents or something like that.”

Retirement Strategy

Brian Luther, retired rear admiral and the president and chief executive officer of Navy Mutual, recognizes that “personal finance is personal” — in other words, “every situation is different.” Nevertheless, he insists that “everyone should have a plan” that includes: 

  • What your cash flow is
  • Where your money is going
  • Where you need to go in the future

But even if you don’t know a lot of those details, Luther said, the most important thing:

Luther also advised an approach based on cutting the 3.8% pay raise in half, keeping half for expenses and putting the other half into the Thrift Savings Plan. Then “that pay will work for you until you need it in retirement,” Luther said. With every subsequent increase, put half into the TSP until you’re setting aside a full 15% of your pay. 

Advertisement

For a relatively young service member, “Once you hit 15%, and [with] the 5% match from the government, that’s enough for your future,” Luther said. 

Previously in this series:

Part 1: 2026 Guide to Pay and Allowances for Military Service Members, Veterans and Retirees

Part 2: Understanding All the Deductions on Your 2026 Military Leave and Earnings Statements

Part 3: Should You Let the Military Set Aside Allotments from Your Pay?

Get the Latest Financial Tips

Whether you’re trying to balance your budget, build up your credit, select a good life insurance program or are gearing up for a home purchase, Military.com has you covered. Subscribe to Military.com and get the latest military benefit updates and tips delivered straight to your inbox.

Advertisement

Story Continues

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending