Finance
‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst
In their bids to win the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” to lower energy prices, while Vice President Kamala Harris has assured she won’t ban fracking.
Those promises may not matter much in the near term. Energy prices are poised to drop, regardless of who wins, says one industry watcher.
“Whoever gets elected in November is going to be very fortunate in that they are going to be dealing with some of the most serious energy deflation … since 2020,” Tom Kloza, OPIS Global head of energy analysis, told Yahoo Finance, referring to the start of the pandemic lockdowns four years ago when US crude prices slumped as travel demand collapsed.
This past week was one of the year’s most volatile for the energy markets as oil touched its lowest level since 2021 before ticking higher on Wednesday. Year to date, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is down about 2%, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, is down more than 4%.
Gasoline prices have also fallen to their lowest level since February, with the national average at $3.24 per gallon, according to AAA.
Prices are expected to go lower as the industry soon switches to a cheaper winter-grade gasoline. Analysts predict the national average will dip below $3 per gallon in the coming weeks barring an unforeseen event.
“These sub-$3 prices are sure to boost consumer sentiment going into the fall,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Yahoo Finance.
Weak demand out of China, the biggest importer of oil, has been the main driver of declining crude prices. The country has been battling a housing crisis while shifting toward electric vehicles and more natural gas consumption.
Cracks in the US economy and Europe have also weighed on the markets, keeping some speculators notably at bay.
“What happened this summer and what continues to happen is that you do not have speculators buying futures and options contracts anymore,” said Kloza. “The fact that we didn’t see more speculative money coming into the market … that might represent a real sea change for oil.”
“Right now, financial participation in oil markets is probably as low as it’s been since oil became an asset class,” said Kloza.
The fall in oil prices has been so rapid that Wall Street analysts have been forced to revise down their forecasts. On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price target for the second time in a matter of weeks, citing risks of “considerable demand weakness.”
The analysts forecast Brent will average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised outlook of $80 issued in late August.
Oil demand growth forecasts have also come down. The International Energy Agency cut its outlook for 2024, citing Chinese oil demand “firmly in contraction.”
The revision came the same week oil alliance OPEC slightly trimmed its own oil demand forecast. Despite the revision, OPEC’s expectations are still near double other industry estimates.
The oil alliance spearheaded by Saudi Arabia has been eager to bring back more of its supply by unwinding some of its production cuts, which have helped keep a floor on prices.
However, the cartel recently delayed the reintroduction of barrels initially slated for October given the slump in oil. The postponement didn’t do much to boost prices.
“OPEC+ still has a significant amount of oil that is just waiting to return to the market. And I think that’s the concern — is there really that demand to really satisfy and absorb that increased oil that is going to come back to the market sometime soon?” Tortoise senior portfolio manager Rob Thummel told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.
In a nod to centrists, during Tuesday’s event Harris underscored record production in the US, the largest oil and gas producer in the world.
“We have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” said Harris.
Meanwhile, at rallies, Trump has promised to produce even more oil in order to cut energy prices in half and bring gasoline below $2 per gallon, though analysts expect producers to keep his “drill, baby, drill” vow in check if prices go too low.
On average, companies need the price of US crude to be at least $64 per barrel in order to profitably drill a new well, and $39 for existing ones, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve survey.
With WTI trading near $69, production is expected to continue growing amid technological breakthroughs. The US reached peak production last year despite declining US drilling activity because new wells are more efficient, according to government data. US oil production next year is expected to reach another record level, given advances in horizontal drilling and fracking.
“Ukraine war, the COVID lockdowns, those are the things that shaped oil prices in the last four years,” said OPIS’s Kloza.
“The more likely thing is that we’re going to see much more modest prices next year, and we’ll see oil trade in [on] a lot quieter terms than we have for the last three years,” he added.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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Finance
Islanders encouraged to check car finance deals
Motorists in Jersey have been urged to check car finance deals after millions of drivers were mis-sold motor finance agreements and are set to receive compensation later this year.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) set out its proposal for a redress scheme, costing lenders £9.1bn, last week – it’s estimated 12.1 million motor finance deals will meet the criteria.
The Jersey Consumer Council has encouraged anyone who thinks they might have been mis-sold car finance to contact the dealership or finance company who sold it.
It has created downloadable template letters for people to use to investigate potential commission issues in their agreements.
Pay-outs are expected to total an average of around £829 per person in compensation.
It said the letters, which can be sent to both car dealers and finance, would allow “consumers to take the first formal step in establishing how their finance was arranged”.
It said it was intended to help those affected find out whether commission was paid on their motor finance and whether that commission may have influenced the interest rate or terms of the loan.
Claims can be made for any car finance taken out after 2010.
The Consumer Council said in Jersey as with the UK, some arrangements allowed dealers to increase the interest rate offered to a customer in order to earn a higher commission, a practice that had since attracted regulatory and legal scrutiny.
It said the key issue was “transparency”.
“Borrowers should have been clearly told whether commission was being paid, how it was calculated, and whether it could affect the cost of their borrowing.”
The council said the letters were designed to be straightforward, and request written confirmation of whether discretionary or flat commission arrangements applied, or whether there were exclusive relationships between dealers and finance companies.
It added if commission arrangements did apply and were not disclosed, the letters allow customers to raise a formal complaint.
If firms were unable to confirm the position, the correspondence could also operate as a data subject access request, requiring companies to provide relevant records under Jersey’s data protection law.
It said once people received either a rejection letter, or no reply within three months, they could raise the issue with the Channel Islands Financial Ombudsman.
Follow BBC Jersey on X and Facebook. Send your story ideas to channel.islands@bbc.co.uk.
Finance
What falling wage growth says about where the U.S. economy is heading
Americans are getting smaller pay raises while tariffs and higher gas prices are threatening to make everything more expensive.
Translation: The affordability problem isn’t improving.
New government data released Friday showed non-supervisory workers getting a 3.4% pay raise on average hourly earnings over the last year. That’s the slowest pace of wage gains since 2021, and a downshift from the last two years, when pay bumps were closer to 4%.
The slowdown comes as economists worry about rising inflation, with the Iran war choking off oil tankers and pushing gas prices up over $1 per gallon in just a month, to a national average of $4.09 on Friday.
As diesel costs break $5.50 a gallon (compared to just $3.89 a month ago), retailers and grocers are now contending with higher transportation costs. Amazon said Thursday it will begin charging sellers a 3.5% “fuel and logistics-related surcharge” beginning on April 17.
Airlines like United and JetBlue are raising bag fees in an effort to offset sky-high jet fuel costs. The International Air Transport Association says the price of jet fuel is up 104% in the past month.
“With the recent uptick in inflation driven by energy prices, real wage growth is likely to decelerate further, putting increased pressure on consumers,” said Thrivent’s chief financial and investment officer, David Royal.
For now, Americans are still seeing their earnings rise at a faster pace than the increase in price tags at the store. As pay rose by 3.4%, the most recent inflation data showed prices rising by 2.4% year-over-year.
Wage gains for non-supervisory employees — a category that includes roughly four out of every five non-farm workers — have been outpacing price increases since March 2023, when post-pandemic inflation finally began to cool.
But the concern is that the story could change soon. Because of the bump from oil prices, Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long said it’s possible inflation could pace at 4% this month.
“Four percent is above that 3.5 percent annual wage gain, and that’s where you see a lot of squeeze on workers, particularly middle-class and moderate-income workers,” Long said.
Warning signs are flashing that slowing wage growth could ripple beyond the gas station and prices at the grocery store. Higher mortgage rates now have some worried about icing out even more potential homebuyers.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 5.99% at the start of the war to 6.45% on April 3, according to Mortgage News Daily. The rise is due in part to concerns that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates to tamp down on war-driven inflation.
“With choppy job growth, weaker labor-force attachment and rising uncertainty, many households — especially renters and first-time buyers — could become more cautious as weaker inflation-adjusted wages erode recent affordability improvements,” said Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy.
If wages can’t keep up with rising costs across the board, it’s likely that affordability will become a larger issue than it already was prior to the war. An NBC News poll conducted during the first week of the war with Iran found that, for a plurality of respondents, inflation and the cost of living was the most important issue facing the country.
Economists feel the same way.
Responding to a question from NBC News at a March 18 news conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that “real” wage gains — a measure of wages adjusted for inflation — need to be positive in order for Americans to feel better about affordability.
“it will take some years of positive real earning gains for people to feel good again, we think. But you’re right — when you talk to people, they do feel squeezed,” Powell said.
Finance
Focus Wealth Management Appoints Henry Kim as Chief Financial Officer and Head of Compliance
TORONTO, April 4, 2026 /CNW/ – Focus Wealth Management is pleased to announce that Henry Kim has joined the firm as Chief Financial Officer and Head of Compliance. In his new role, Mr. Kim will oversee the firm’s finance, governance, and compliance functions, further strengthening operational and investment processes across the organization.
Mr. Kim previously served as Chief Financial Officer of the University Pension Plan of Ontario and as Chief Financial Officer and Chief Compliance Officer at CGOV Asset Management. He also held the role of Director, Investment Finance at CPP Investments and began his career in Assurance and Advisory Services at Deloitte & Touche.
“Henry’s expertise in finance and governance makes him an invaluable addition to our leadership team,” said Greg Thompson, Executive Chairman. “His appointment strengthens our operational and compliance framework while supporting our mission to deliver aligned, long-term investment outcomes for our clients.”
Mr. Kim holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the University of Western Ontario and an MBA from the University of Toronto. He is a Chartered Professional Accountant and serves on the Board of Directors of Lumenus Mental Health, Development and Community Services as Chair of the Finance and Audit Committee and Treasurer.
Focus Wealth Management is a privately owned and independently operated firm located in Toronto.
View original content to download multimedia: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/April2026/04/c7403.html
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