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‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst

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‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst

In their bids to win the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” to lower energy prices, while Vice President Kamala Harris has assured she won’t ban fracking.

Those promises may not matter much in the near term. Energy prices are poised to drop, regardless of who wins, says one industry watcher.

“Whoever gets elected in November is going to be very fortunate in that they are going to be dealing with some of the most serious energy deflation … since 2020,” Tom Kloza, OPIS Global head of energy analysis, told Yahoo Finance, referring to the start of the pandemic lockdowns four years ago when US crude prices slumped as travel demand collapsed.

This past week was one of the year’s most volatile for the energy markets as oil touched its lowest level since 2021 before ticking higher on Wednesday. Year to date, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is down about 2%, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, is down more than 4%.

Gasoline prices have also fallen to their lowest level since February, with the national average at $3.24 per gallon, according to AAA.

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Prices are expected to go lower as the industry soon switches to a cheaper winter-grade gasoline. Analysts predict the national average will dip below $3 per gallon in the coming weeks barring an unforeseen event.

“These sub-$3 prices are sure to boost consumer sentiment going into the fall,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Yahoo Finance.

Weak demand out of China, the biggest importer of oil, has been the main driver of declining crude prices. The country has been battling a housing crisis while shifting toward electric vehicles and more natural gas consumption.

Cracks in the US economy and Europe have also weighed on the markets, keeping some speculators notably at bay.

“What happened this summer and what continues to happen is that you do not have speculators buying futures and options contracts anymore,” said Kloza. “The fact that we didn’t see more speculative money coming into the market … that might represent a real sea change for oil.”

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“Right now, financial participation in oil markets is probably as low as it’s been since oil became an asset class,” said Kloza.

In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo)

In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The fall in oil prices has been so rapid that Wall Street analysts have been forced to revise down their forecasts. On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price target for the second time in a matter of weeks, citing risks of “considerable demand weakness.”

The analysts forecast Brent will average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised outlook of $80 issued in late August.

Oil demand growth forecasts have also come down. The International Energy Agency cut its outlook for 2024, citing Chinese oil demand “firmly in contraction.”

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The revision came the same week oil alliance OPEC slightly trimmed its own oil demand forecast. Despite the revision, OPEC’s expectations are still near double other industry estimates.

The oil alliance spearheaded by Saudi Arabia has been eager to bring back more of its supply by unwinding some of its production cuts, which have helped keep a floor on prices.

However, the cartel recently delayed the reintroduction of barrels initially slated for October given the slump in oil. The postponement didn’t do much to boost prices.

“OPEC+ still has a significant amount of oil that is just waiting to return to the market. And I think that’s the concern — is there really that demand to really satisfy and absorb that increased oil that is going to come back to the market sometime soon?” Tortoise senior portfolio manager Rob Thummel told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.

In a nod to centrists, during Tuesday’s event Harris underscored record production in the US, the largest oil and gas producer in the world.

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“We have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” said Harris.

Meanwhile, at rallies, Trump has promised to produce even more oil in order to cut energy prices in half and bring gasoline below $2 per gallon, though analysts expect producers to keep his “drill, baby, drill” vow in check if prices go too low.

On average, companies need the price of US crude to be at least $64 per barrel in order to profitably drill a new well, and $39 for existing ones, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve survey.

With WTI trading near $69, production is expected to continue growing amid technological breakthroughs. The US reached peak production last year despite declining US drilling activity because new wells are more efficient, according to government data. US oil production next year is expected to reach another record level, given advances in horizontal drilling and fracking.

“Ukraine war, the COVID lockdowns, those are the things that shaped oil prices in the last four years,” said OPIS’s Kloza.

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“The more likely thing is that we’re going to see much more modest prices next year, and we’ll see oil trade in [on] a lot quieter terms than we have for the last three years,” he added.

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

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Former Finance Manager of Historic Sotterley Charged with Embezzlement of $15,000

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Former Finance Manager of Historic Sotterley Charged with Embezzlement of ,000

Angela Marie Hanson, 52, of California, Maryland, has been indicted on charges of embezzlement and theft following allegations of financial misconduct during her tenure as Finance Manager for Historic Sotterley, Inc. According to court documents, Hanson is accused of stealing nearly $15,000 over a five-month period from October 31, 2023, to April 15, 2024.

Hanson, who oversaw financial operations at the historic property, is scheduled for her initial court appearance in the Circuit Court for St. Mary’s County on January 13, 2025. She faces a felony charge of theft scheme involving $1,500 to $25,000, a misdemeanor embezzlement charge, 50 counts of theft between $100 and $1,500, and 17 counts of theft under $100.

Authorities allege that Hanson misappropriated funds using a debit card linked to Historic Sotterley’s “Museum Shop” account. Over 50 ATM withdrawals and several unauthorized purchases were reportedly made at local businesses, including gas stations and convenience stores.

Court filings claim Hanson also transferred funds between Historic Sotterley’s accounts to conceal her activities. Investigators allege that Hanson continued these actions even after her employment ended in February 2024.

The St. Mary’s County Sheriff’s Office led the investigation, which included reviewing banking records, witness testimony, and surveillance footage. Historic Sotterley’s Executive Director identified Hanson as the only individual with access to financial systems and administrative rights during the period in question.

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Investigators state that surveillance footage shows Hanson conducting ATM withdrawals using the organization’s debit card. When questioned by law enforcement, Hanson acknowledged managing Historic Sotterley’s finances but denied any intent to defraud.








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The Secret to Making Successful Financial New Year’s Resolutions – NerdWallet

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The Secret to Making Successful Financial New Year’s Resolutions – NerdWallet

The investing information provided on this page is for educational purposes only. NerdWallet, Inc. does not offer advisory or brokerage services, nor does it recommend or advise investors to buy or sell particular stocks, securities or other investments.

The start of a new year can bring a surge of motivation around setting new goals, including financial resolutions.

One way to help those goals become reality, financial experts say, is to make them as specific as possible. Then, track your progress, while allowing flexibility for unexpected challenges.

“It’s easier to track progress when we know where we are going,” says Sylvie Scowcroft, a certified financial planner and founder of The Financial Grove in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

That’s why she encourages her clients to set clearly defined goals, often related to paying off a specific debt, saving a certain amount per month or improving their credit score.

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Here are more tips from financial experts about crafting 2025 financial goals:

Pick your top priorities

Trying to accomplish too much can feel overwhelming. Instead, pick your priorities, says Cathleen Tobin, CFP and owner of Moonbridge Financial Design in Rhinebeck, New York.

She suggests focusing on those big, often emotionally-driven goals to find motivation.

“It’s more compelling than just a number,” she says. For example, do you want to make sure you’re on track for retirement or save money for a house? “Start there.”

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Be as specific as possible

Scowcroft says she sees clients get tripped up by selecting overly broad goals, such as “get better with money.” Instead, she encourages people to select specific action items, such as “sign up for a budgeting tool and set aside time each month to learn where my money is going.”

That level of specificity provides direction so you know what steps to take next, she adds. For example, if your top priority is to become debt-free, then your specific goal might be to pay off an extra $200 of your debt balance each month.

Tobin says labeling savings accounts so they correspond with goals can also help. An emergency fund could be named something like “Peace of mind in 2025,” so you remember why you’re saving every time you make a transfer.

“It’s more motivating than just ‘emergency fund,’” Tobin says.

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Get more financial clarity with NerdWallet

Monitor your credit, track your spending and see all of your finances together in a single place.

Track your progress

Measuring your progress as the year unfolds is also a critical component of successful goal setting, Tobin says.

She compares it to weight loss. If you want to lose 20 pounds by June, then you need to lose about a pound a week for the first six months of the year. Similarly, she says it helps to break savings goals into microsteps that specify what you need to do each week.

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Schedule a weekly or monthly check-in with yourself to make sure you are meeting those smaller goals along the way. You might want to review your debt payoff progress or check your credit score, for example.

“Being able to break it down into steps that can be done each week or twice a month really helps,” Tobin says.

Automate where you can

If your goal is to save more money, then setting up an automatic transfer each month can help turn that goal into reality, as long as you know you have the money in your checking account to spare.

“It reduces the mental load,” says Mike Hunsberger, CFP and owner of Next Mission Financial Planning in St. Charles, Missouri, where he primarily supports veterans and current members of the military.

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He recommends starting small to ease into the change.

“I wouldn’t jump to double what you’re currently saving,” he says. For example, when it comes to saving in a retirement account, if you’re starting with a 3% contribution, you might want to bump it up to 4%, then slowly increase it from there.

“My number one piece of advice is to start small, but make sure you scale over time,” Hunsberger adds. “Because it’s gradual, you probably won’t notice it impacting your lifestyle.”

Adjust as needed

“Stay flexible,” Scowcroft says. “Part of it is just being kind to yourself and not being too rigid.”

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When unexpected challenges come up, such as a big unplanned expense, you might have to pause making progress on your goal and reset.

You might even need to change your goal. Scowcroft says that doesn’t mean you “failed,” just that life changed your plans. Dwelling on any negativity won’t help your forward progress.

Team up with a friend

Sharing your goals with a friend can also make it easier to reach them, Scowcroft says.

“It really helps to have an accountability buddy,” she says.

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She suggests putting a regular “money date” with your friend on the calendar so you can ask each other how you’re doing, brainstorm any challenges or even budget together side-by-side.

“It’s a fun excuse to meet up with a friend.”

Get more financial clarity with NerdWallet

Monitor your credit, track your spending and see all of your finances together in a single place.

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I’m not financially literate. Here’s how I could be. – The Boston Globe

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I’m not financially literate. Here’s how I could be. – The Boston Globe

If you asked me what the process for setting up a Roth IRA looked like, I doubt I could offer you a thorough response. The same goes for mortgages and loans and interest. When I had to fill out my first W-9 form, I was admittedly more than a bit confused.

In short, financial literacy isn’t my forte. And that’s because, like many Massachusetts public school students, I’ve never had to take any sort of personal finance class.

Indeed, throughout the debates over eliminating MCAS as a graduation requirement for high schoolers, we heard quite a bit about the state’s educational gold standard. So is it not the least bit shameful, or at least embarrassing, that our state does not require high school students to take a financial literacy class when a majority of states do?

Absolutely. And it needs to change.

Twenty-six states, including Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Connecticut, have passed legislation making a personal finance course mandatory for high school students. Meanwhile, Massachusetts received an “F” from the Champlain College Center for Financial Literacy, which released a report card in 2023 evaluating how each “state delivers personal finance education in its public high schools.” In addition, a 2023 report card(link?) from the American Public Education Foundation gave the state a “C” for its financial literacy requirements — a score worse than or equal to all but six states.

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Meanwhile, across the state, credit card and student loan debt have spiked to eye-popping levels. As of the second quarter of this year, the average Massachusetts resident had a credit card balance of $8,556 and $33,710.38 in student loan debt. The latter is particularly troubling for young people like myself. For the next four years, countless high school seniors throughout the Commonwealth will be attending college, paying tens of thousands of dollars on top of day-to-day expenses.

The need for personal finance courses in Massachusetts is tremendous — a need that, as per a 2021 report from the state’s Office of Economic Empowerment, is recognized almost universally among teachers and, importantly, students.

Yet, as a result of being taught next to nothing about personal finances, many of us are left ill-prepared for these new circumstances. Our understanding of credit cards is limited to, as State Treasurer Deb Goldberg so eloquently articulated to GBH, “The parent puts a plastic card into the wallet and boom: out comes money.” And so the cycle of taking out loans, accumulating massive debt, and working for years before being able to pay it off persists.

Why perpetuate the cycle when it is so clear that these classes work? According to a 2021 Ramsey Solutions survey, among the teenagers who have completed a personal finance class, nearly 80 percent said that they’ve created a monthly budget for themselves, 94 percent felt confident about saving money, and 87 percent understood how to pay income taxes. And, as noted in the OEE’s report, personal finance courses are tools that “increase social mobility for low-income or immigrant students.” Requiring such classes really couldn’t make much more sense.

At my own high school, Brookline High School, financial literacy is offered in the form of a popular elective, “The World of Money: Practical Studies in Finance and Investment,” which “integrates the basic principles of economics, money management, investing, and technology,” according to the course catalog. Every spring, as course selection rolls around, hundreds of students eye this semester-long course, but with only so many spots, most cannot take it — and, consequently, miss out on an opportunity to learn about financial literacy.

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Recognizing the imminent need to educate ourselves on matters of taxes, loans, investments, and more, several members of Brookline High School’s Student Council, including myself, have proposed amendments to our student handbook that would incorporate a financial literacy component in our graduation requirements and incorporate personal finance lessons into our weekly advisory classes. Our work would ensure that such important life skills are accessible to all students, not merely for those lucky enough to find a place in the class.

But while such efforts are certainly a step in the right direction on this issue, they are not enough. Financial literacy should not be a privilege for schools with a proactive student body; it is a fundamental aspect of our lives, and our state’s education system must begin reflecting that. The state must require personal finance courses for graduation — it’s the smartest investment we can make.

Ravin Bhatia is a senior at Brookline High School.

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