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‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst

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‘Serious energy deflation’ is coming whether Trump or Harris wins, says analyst

In their bids to win the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” to lower energy prices, while Vice President Kamala Harris has assured she won’t ban fracking.

Those promises may not matter much in the near term. Energy prices are poised to drop, regardless of who wins, says one industry watcher.

“Whoever gets elected in November is going to be very fortunate in that they are going to be dealing with some of the most serious energy deflation … since 2020,” Tom Kloza, OPIS Global head of energy analysis, told Yahoo Finance, referring to the start of the pandemic lockdowns four years ago when US crude prices slumped as travel demand collapsed.

This past week was one of the year’s most volatile for the energy markets as oil touched its lowest level since 2021 before ticking higher on Wednesday. Year to date, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is down about 2%, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, is down more than 4%.

Gasoline prices have also fallen to their lowest level since February, with the national average at $3.24 per gallon, according to AAA.

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Prices are expected to go lower as the industry soon switches to a cheaper winter-grade gasoline. Analysts predict the national average will dip below $3 per gallon in the coming weeks barring an unforeseen event.

“These sub-$3 prices are sure to boost consumer sentiment going into the fall,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Yahoo Finance.

Weak demand out of China, the biggest importer of oil, has been the main driver of declining crude prices. The country has been battling a housing crisis while shifting toward electric vehicles and more natural gas consumption.

Cracks in the US economy and Europe have also weighed on the markets, keeping some speculators notably at bay.

“What happened this summer and what continues to happen is that you do not have speculators buying futures and options contracts anymore,” said Kloza. “The fact that we didn’t see more speculative money coming into the market … that might represent a real sea change for oil.”

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“Right now, financial participation in oil markets is probably as low as it’s been since oil became an asset class,” said Kloza.

In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo)

In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

The fall in oil prices has been so rapid that Wall Street analysts have been forced to revise down their forecasts. On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price target for the second time in a matter of weeks, citing risks of “considerable demand weakness.”

The analysts forecast Brent will average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised outlook of $80 issued in late August.

Oil demand growth forecasts have also come down. The International Energy Agency cut its outlook for 2024, citing Chinese oil demand “firmly in contraction.”

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The revision came the same week oil alliance OPEC slightly trimmed its own oil demand forecast. Despite the revision, OPEC’s expectations are still near double other industry estimates.

The oil alliance spearheaded by Saudi Arabia has been eager to bring back more of its supply by unwinding some of its production cuts, which have helped keep a floor on prices.

However, the cartel recently delayed the reintroduction of barrels initially slated for October given the slump in oil. The postponement didn’t do much to boost prices.

“OPEC+ still has a significant amount of oil that is just waiting to return to the market. And I think that’s the concern — is there really that demand to really satisfy and absorb that increased oil that is going to come back to the market sometime soon?” Tortoise senior portfolio manager Rob Thummel told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.

In a nod to centrists, during Tuesday’s event Harris underscored record production in the US, the largest oil and gas producer in the world.

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“We have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” said Harris.

Meanwhile, at rallies, Trump has promised to produce even more oil in order to cut energy prices in half and bring gasoline below $2 per gallon, though analysts expect producers to keep his “drill, baby, drill” vow in check if prices go too low.

On average, companies need the price of US crude to be at least $64 per barrel in order to profitably drill a new well, and $39 for existing ones, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve survey.

With WTI trading near $69, production is expected to continue growing amid technological breakthroughs. The US reached peak production last year despite declining US drilling activity because new wells are more efficient, according to government data. US oil production next year is expected to reach another record level, given advances in horizontal drilling and fracking.

“Ukraine war, the COVID lockdowns, those are the things that shaped oil prices in the last four years,” said OPIS’s Kloza.

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“The more likely thing is that we’re going to see much more modest prices next year, and we’ll see oil trade in [on] a lot quieter terms than we have for the last three years,” he added.

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

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Banks must respond strategically to these six shifts – I by IMD

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Banks must respond strategically to these six shifts – I by IMD

To mark becoming a fully-fledged bank in the UK, the mega-fintech Revolut launched a TV advertising campaign featuring Irish comedian Graham Norton on a brown horse. As Norton explains cheekily at the end: “It’s a metaphor.” The advert, which is a parody of some of the advertising tropes historically used by legacy banks, is a fun watch, posing a simple but in fact consequential question – one that possibly keeps bank executives awake at night today: What is a bank?

It’s a clever provocation. In a few seconds, the ambitious digital startup turned financial services powerhouse challenges decades of accumulated assumptions about balance sheets, operating structures, and the very definition of financial intermediation. But do these hold water in 2026?

What will the banking leaders look like in five years?

Banking models, after all, were built for a different time, one defined by relatively stable geopolitics and smooth cross-border trade, fairly predictable regulations, centralized banking infrastructure, and long technology cycles. For decades, scale, capital strength, and regulatory privilege formed durable competitive moats. Banks sat at the center of client liquidity, orchestrating payments, lending, and risk with little serious threat to their primacy.

Today, those foundations are being relentlessly pounded and squeezed by a set of existential and overlapping forces that are galloping mercilessly forward. Economic statecraft is bumping up against revenue streams; intelligent automation and agentic AI are reshaping workflows, organizational structures, and decision-making. Open banking, enabled by regulations like the Revised Payment Services Directive (PSD2) in the EU and similar elsewhere, disintermediates certain key functions that banks used to control end-to-end.

Once more, the customer is king and queen – and banks must rebuild for heightened customer-centricity, looking to the likes of Netflix, Uber, and Apple for inspiration – while at the same time strengthening resilience and compliance with more complex regulations.     

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 I by IMD’s new report, The Future of Banking: The structural forces reshaping global banking – and the strategic decisions leaders cannot defer, identifies six structural shifts that will determine whether banks will be able to operate successfully over the coming decades or lose momentum and market share. The report examines these shifts through the perspectives of IMD professors, the real-world experience of bank leaders, and executives of breakthrough technology innovators, positioning as strategic partners to help banks build new competitive advantage.

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If you teach your kids just one financial lesson, it should be this

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If you teach your kids just one financial lesson, it should be this
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The power of saving and investing early cannot be overstated. It’s the most powerful financial action a young person can take.

Getting your children on this bandwagon early is the most valuable piece of financial advice you can give them. And you don’t need to be a financial whiz to do so.

Your teenager is not going to dedicate any thought whatsoever to saving for retirement. And they shouldn’t – that’s a bit ridiculous considering they haven’t even started their first full-time job.

Let’s get real: Young people have a lot of things they need to save up for, including college or university education, a first car, funds to move out of their parent’s house, or a down payment on a house or condo. These are important things to save for – it’s how we grow and advance in our lives.

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But saving for long-term goals – whether you want to call it retirement or just “later in life” money – should always be there alongside these other objectives, because for most people, starting early is what makes it possible to save enough.

Charting Retirement: Your retirement savings target is probably lower than you think

Many of my clients tell me that they wish they had started saving earlier in life. Most of them had never been told about the incredible power of time and compounding.

I was lucky because my first job was with a bank, where I was encouraged to get customers to sign up for an automatic purchase plan into mutual funds. I had one, too, and also had a group RRSP and a stock purchase plan. My savings came off my paycheque. Thirty years later those savings are still growing.

Saving for retirement is the biggest, most overwhelming savings goal there is, but for many people, it is achievable with good saving habits. While it is impossible to come up with a definitive number for how much your children will need to save for retirement because there are so many factors that go into this calculation, it’s fair to say that the number is at least a $1.5-million – and this is a lowball estimate.

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Let’s look at the example of $1.5-million – the concept is the same regardless of what the end goal is. There are many ways to get there. One way is to start small, putting away $50 a month from ages 16 to 22, then increasing it to $300 a month from ages 23 to 30, and $700 from age 31 to 64.

On the other hand, if you wait until age 40 to start saving, you will need to put away $2,200 a month until age 64. This means the late starter has to put away more than the early saver – much more.

The early saver only needs to put in about $320,000, while the late starter has to contribute $634,000, a difference of $314,000. That’s a lot of extra dollars you could be spending on something else.

(For our example, the $1.5-million figure is calculated assuming an average annual return of 7 per cent and that investment income is not taxed over this period.)

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To make it tangible, have your teenager play around with an online savings growth calculator, or they can ask AI to do the math for them by giving specific instructions about different savings amounts at different ages. Seeing how money grows over long time periods pictured on a graph is truly inspiring.

As soon as your teenager hits the age of majority in your province – which is 18 or 19 – have them open a tax-free savings account (TFSA) and put their accumulated savings in there. When they start working full-time, a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) comes into play. And they should always take advantage of any employer savings plans that offer a matching component.

Starting early with saving isn’t just about the power of time and compounding. It has other benefits too. Saving feels good. Knowing you have money set aside creates a sense of being financially responsible. And that inspires more of that kind of feel-good behaviour. In my experience as a financial planner, people who are good savers also tend to be more in control of their spending, and have no outstanding credit card debt. It’s a positive reinforcement loop.

Be the person who tells your kids about the power of time and compounding. Thirty years from now, they’ll thank you.


Anita Bruinsma is a Toronto-based certified financial planner and a parent of two teenage boys. You can find her at Clarity Personal Finance.

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Delphi Doubles Down on Ellington Financial Stake with $8.7 Million Buy | The Motley Fool

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Delphi Doubles Down on Ellington Financial Stake with .7 Million Buy | The Motley Fool

What happened

According to a May 13, 2026, SEC filing, Delphi Financial Group increased its stake in Ellington Financial (EFC 0.97%) by 686,639 shares during the first quarter. The estimated transaction value, calculated using the quarter’s average closing price, was $8.73 million. The value of the position rose by $6.89 million quarter over quarter, reflecting both additional shares and changes in the stock price.

What else to know

  • After the buy, Ellington Financial represents 7.53% of Delphi Financial Group’s 13F reportable AUM.
  • Top holdings after the filing:
    • NYSEMKT: JAAA: $32.57 million (14.7% of AUM)
    • NYSEMKT: ASHR: $19.27 million (8.7% of AUM)
    • NYSEMKT: FXI: $17.10 million (7.7% of AUM)
    • NYSE: TSM: $16.16 million (7.3% of AUM)
    • NYSE: EFC: $16.69 million (7.5% of AUM)
  • As of May 15, 2026, Ellington Financial shares were priced at $13.33, up 0.38% over the past year, lagging the S&P 500 by 24.83 percentage points.

Company Overview

Metric Value
Price (as of market close May 15, 2026) $13.33
Market capitalization $1.7 billion
Revenue (TTM) $306.51 million
Net income (TTM) $146.87 million

Company snapshot

  • Offers a diversified portfolio of mortgage-backed securities, residential and commercial mortgage loans, asset-backed securities, corporate debt and equity, and consumer loans.
  • Generates revenue from managing and acquiring a range of financial assets across mortgage, consumer, and corporate markets.
  • Serves a broad range of counterparties seeking exposure to mortgage-related and structured finance assets in the United States.

Ellington Financial is a real estate investment trust specializing in mortgage and consumer credit assets, focused on generating stable income through diversified investment strategies. The company leverages deep expertise in structured finance and credit markets to manage risk and capitalize on opportunities across various asset classes.

What this transaction means for investors

Delphi Financial Group recently acquired a significant additional stake in Ellington Financial. The company was already one of its largest holdings, but this move raises it from a No. 7 to No. 6 spot, indicating that it already thought highly of Ellington’s prospects and continues to do so.

One likely reason is Ellington’s record earnings in the first quarter of 2026. This indicates that business fundamentals are strong, and obviously, this is an important factor in any investor’s decision. It’s also been a consistent dividend payer, reliably issuing monthly dividends since 2010. This reliable cash flow is another reason Delphi might find Ellington attractive.

Earlier this year, Ellington issued common stock to redeem its Series A preferred shares, which carried interest costs above 9%. Replacing that expensive preferred equity with common shares reduced financing costs and benefited common shareholders, including Delphi.

For individual investors, Delphi’s increased stake implies a vote of confidence, which is reassuring. But all investments have inherent risk, and Ellington is no different. Financial entities like this company are affected by changes in interest rates, inflation, recessions, and other economic indicators. Investors need to consider these risks along with the positive signals before making an investment decision.

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Pamela Kock has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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