In their bids to win the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has promised to “drill, baby, drill” to lower energy prices, while Vice President Kamala Harris has assured she won’t ban fracking.
Those promises may not matter much in the near term. Energy prices are poised to drop, regardless of who wins, says one industry watcher.
“Whoever gets elected in November is going to be very fortunate in that they are going to be dealing with some of the most serious energy deflation … since 2020,” Tom Kloza, OPIS Global head of energy analysis, told Yahoo Finance, referring to the start of the pandemic lockdowns four years ago when US crude prices slumped as travel demand collapsed.
This past week was one of the year’s most volatile for the energy markets as oil touched its lowest level since 2021 before ticking higher on Wednesday. Year to date, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) is down about 2%, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, is down more than 4%.
Gasoline prices have also fallen to their lowest level since February, with the national average at $3.24 per gallon, according to AAA.
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Prices are expected to go lower as the industry soon switches to a cheaper winter-grade gasoline. Analysts predict the national average will dip below $3 per gallon in the coming weeks barring an unforeseen event.
“These sub-$3 prices are sure to boost consumer sentiment going into the fall,” GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan told Yahoo Finance.
Weak demand out of China, the biggest importer of oil, has been the main driver of declining crude prices. The country has been battling a housing crisis while shifting toward electric vehicles and more natural gas consumption.
Cracks in the US economy and Europe have also weighed on the markets, keeping some speculators notably at bay.
“What happened this summer and what continues to happen is that you do not have speculators buying futures and options contracts anymore,” said Kloza. “The fact that we didn’t see more speculative money coming into the market … that might represent a real sea change for oil.”
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“Right now, financial participation in oil markets is probably as low as it’s been since oil became an asset class,” said Kloza.
In this combination photo, Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., speaks during a debate, Oct. 7, 2020, in Salt Lake City, left, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks during a debate, June 27, 2024, in Atlanta. (AP Photo) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
The fall in oil prices has been so rapid that Wall Street analysts have been forced to revise down their forecasts. On Monday, Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price target for the second time in a matter of weeks, citing risks of “considerable demand weakness.”
The analysts forecast Brent will average $75 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $5 lower than the prior downwardly revised outlook of $80 issued in late August.
Oil demand growth forecasts have also come down. The International Energy Agency cut its outlook for 2024, citing Chinese oil demand “firmly in contraction.”
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The revision came the same week oil alliance OPEC slightly trimmed its own oil demand forecast. Despite the revision, OPEC’s expectations are still near double other industry estimates.
The oil alliance spearheaded by Saudi Arabia has been eager to bring back more of its supply by unwinding some of its production cuts, which have helped keep a floor on prices.
However, the cartel recently delayed the reintroduction of barrels initially slated for October given the slump in oil. The postponement didn’t do much to boost prices.
“OPEC+ still has a significant amount of oil that is just waiting to return to the market. And I think that’s the concern — is there really that demand to really satisfy and absorb that increased oil that is going to come back to the market sometime soon?” Tortoise senior portfolio manager Rob Thummel told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.
In a nod to centrists, during Tuesday’s event Harris underscored record production in the US, the largest oil and gas producer in the world.
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“We have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,” said Harris.
Meanwhile, at rallies, Trump has promised to produce even more oil in order to cut energy prices in half and bring gasoline below $2 per gallon, though analysts expect producers to keep his “drill, baby, drill” vow in check if prices go too low.
On average, companies need the price of US crude to be at least $64 per barrel in order to profitably drill a new well, and $39 for existing ones, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve survey.
With WTI trading near $69, production is expected to continue growing amid technological breakthroughs. The US reached peak production last year despite declining US drilling activity because new wells are more efficient, according to government data. US oil production next year is expected to reach another record level, given advances in horizontal drilling and fracking.
“Ukraine war, the COVID lockdowns, those are the things that shaped oil prices in the last four years,” said OPIS’s Kloza.
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“The more likely thing is that we’re going to see much more modest prices next year, and we’ll see oil trade in [on] a lotquieter terms than we have for the last three years,” he added.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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CBA has tipped inflation to rise almost a full percentage point thanks to the Iran war. (Source: Getty) ·AFP via Getty Images
The Reserve Bank of Australia is facing an incredibly difficult call. The Board meets next week amid continued uncertainty over the war in Iran, and a week out from a Federal Budget expected to contain some big changes. Against that backdrop, it is expected to slug mortgage holders and businesses with a hike in the official cash rate.
But borrowers could – and should – be spared another blow, according to some prognosticators going against the grain. As house prices in major cities are rolling over, certain economic commentators think the RBA should stand pat.
A hike would be the third in a row, but the second since surging fuel prices took hold.
“Because that interest rate increase — or the equivalent — has already come through in higher petrol prices, I reckon they might hold the line,” said David Koch.
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The Economic Director at Compare the Market, and regular Yahoo Finance contributor, believes the bank could wait for at least some of the dust to settle and see what’s in the Federal Budget on May 12.
“They’ll be thinking about whether oil prices will stay high for longer, because if the Middle East crisis resolves itself, oil prices will drop significantly — and that would take a big chunk out of the inflation rate,” he said.
He also pointed to deteriorating conditions in the economy and historically glum consumer sentiment as factors that could reduce demand that caused inflation to tick back up this year in Australia’s productivity constrained economy.
“Consumer confidence has plunged and business confidence has fallen to almost record lows. Consumers cutting their spending is bad for the economy because small businesses start to suffer.
“And bosses not having confidence is bad for the economy too, because they won’t invest and they won’t hire people. So the Reserve Bank doesn’t want to crush consumers and businesses with another interest rate increase,” he said.
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The ANZAC Day weekend brought another soft result in auction clearance rates in the country’s biggest housing markets (with Adelaide being a notable exception). In Sydney, auction clearance rates on Saturday were 49 per cent (compared to 63 per cent a year ago) and in Melbourne was 56 per cent (down from 61 per cent the same time last year), according to Domain.
Economist and former advisor to the Gillard government, Stephen Koukoulas, also believes the right move is not to hike, and says a softening housing market could play a part in a surprise decision to hold.
“The loss of momentum in house prices and outright falls now in Sydney and Melbourne is particularly interesting,” he said on Monday.
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Despite the high probability of a hike, the RBA will have an incredibly tough call to make next week. (Source: Getty/Yahoo Finance)
While he noted the RBA doesn’t target house prices, the overall impact they have on the economy and sentiment is relevant.
“Given the importance of housing for household wealth and the efficient functioning of the banking system, house price falls will start to feature prominently in RBA thinking,” he claimed.
The frequently dovish economist, last week said lifting interest rates further into the already tough conditions for households “would be monetary policy vandalism”.
Ultimately, it could come down to a data point to be unveiled on Wednesday. The first set of inflation numbers since US and Israeli strikes on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and skyrocketing oil prices will be unveiled on Wednesday.
A large inflation spike in March is expected by economists, off the back of sharp increases to petrol and diesel prices which have filtered through to many sectors of the economy.
Commonwealth Bank economists have tipped inflation to rise almost a full percentage point for the month, from 3.7 per cent to 4.6 per cent.
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The trimmed mean inflation, which removes the more volatile price increases such as petrol costs, will nudge up from 3.3 per cent to 3.5 per cent, they forecast.
CBA economists, in unison with the other Big Four banks, said the RBA was more likely than not to hike rates again off the back of Wednesday’s inflation data.
“The data will be keenly watched given the RBA is due to hand down its decision on interest rates on May 5, with money markets suggesting a 72 per cent chance of a 25 basis point rate hike,” the bank said.
The Reserve Bank favours the trimmed mean as a true measure of inflation, with the figures already well above the bank’s target band of between two per cent and three per cent.
with AAP
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AgSouth Farm Credit and AgGeorgia Farm Credit are set to host a series of AGAware® Farm Finance Training workshops across Georgia in 2026, offering farmers comprehensive education in business and financial management, allowing them to better navigate the modern agricultural economy.
AgSouth Farm Credit and AgGeorgia Farm Credit announces upcoming 2026 AGAware® Farm Finance Training workshops in Georgia designed to equip farmers with essential business and financial management skills needed to succeed in today’s agricultural economy.
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All classes are held from 9:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m., and a free lunch will be provided.
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When uncertainty peaks, activity drops. But that means opportunity. (Source: Supplied/Getty)
With rising interest rates, a war in the Middle East and high fuel prices, a lot of property investors are likely feeling a little cautious about the current environment. For many buyers, the instinct to wait for certainty feels like the responsible thing to do.
Wait until interest rates stabilise, the news headlines improve or until the market feels safer. But in property, certainty often comes at a cost.
Some of the most significant buying opportunities emerge during periods of uncertainty, when headlines are negative, confidence is low, and most buyers are sitting on the sidelines. This pattern has a name. I call it the V effect.
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The V effect captures what typically happens during periods of disruption, whether economic shocks, natural disasters or geopolitical events. Markets experience a sharp drop in activity and sentiment, followed by a recovery that can be just as swift. At the bottom of that V is where opportunity tends to be the highest.
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During this phase, competition thins out, vendors become more flexible, and some withdraw their listings entirely. Properties take longer to sell. The market slows, but it does not stop.
The length of any downturn depends on the nature of the disruption. Localised events such as flooding or cyclones may compress activity for two to four months while recovery takes place. Broader economic or geopolitical shocks can extend that window, but sentiment can also rebound quickly once confidence returns. What remains consistent is the pattern itself.
When uncertainty peaks, activity drops. When certainty returns, buyers flood back in. And this is where many buyers misread the cycle. By waiting for conditions to feel safer, they are effectively waiting until the market has already begun recovering, moving up the right-hand side of the V. Competition intensifies, prices firm up, and your ability to negotiate diminishes. The moment that feels the safest to buy is often the most expensive one.
Buyers who act during uncertainty position themselves differently. They face less competition, have far greater negotiating power and can secure properties on better terms. When the market recovers, as it has consistently done throughout history, those buyers benefit from the uplift that follows.
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It is not uncommon to see a 10 to 20 per cent difference in values based on timing alone. Buyers who entered during the period of uncertainty often find themselves well ahead within a relatively short period. Those who wait for clarity frequently end up paying a premium for the privilege.
Buyers who wait for certainty tend to buy on the way up. (Source: Getty) ·Getty Images
Acting during uncertain conditions is not the same as buying without discipline. Uncertainty is largely sentiment-driven, based on how people feel about the market at a given moment. Risk relates to fundamentals like location quality, supply and demand, infrastructure investment and long-term population and employment drivers.
RELATED: Buyers snap up homes for $200,000 under asking price as ‘fear and mystery’ hang over property market
Experienced buyers focus on fundamentals and use uncertainty as a tool rather than a deterrent. They do not attempt to call the exact bottom of the market. Instead, they recognise when conditions have shifted in their favour and move decisively when the numbers support the decision.
Market psychology plays a significant role in how the V effect unfolds. When uncertainty is at its peak, fear tends to dominate. Buyers hesitate, delay decisions and second-guess their position. Once confidence returns, that hesitation quickly converts into urgency, and in some cases, FOMO.
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It is this emotional shift that drives the speed of the recovery phase. By the time the average buyer feels comfortable re-entering the market, the opportunity has often already passed. Timing based on sentiment is consistently unreliable. The moments that feel the most uncomfortable are frequently the ones that offer the best value.
For first-home buyers in particular, this dynamic is even more important. Rather than waiting for ideal conditions, the more effective approach is preparation. Understanding your borrowing capacity, having finance in order and being clear on your criteria allows you to act when conditions move in your favour. In uncertain markets, vendors are more open to price adjustments. Contracts become more negotiable. Days on market extend. These are conditions that simply do not exist when competition is intense and confidence is high. Those windows do not stay open indefinitely.
Property is a long-term asset class. Short-term uncertainty is a feature of the cycle, not a reason to stay away from it. The V effect is a reminder that markets move quickly in both directions.
Buyers who wait for certainty tend to buy on the way up. Those who act during uncertainty give themselves the chance to enter at a better price, and in property, getting ahead early is what allows you to grow equity and expand your portfolio a lot faster.
Abdullah Nouh is the founder of Mecca Property Group and a Melbourne-based buyers’ advocate specialising in long-term, fundamentals-driven property strategy. He works with families and investors to build sustainable wealth through strategic residential and commercial acquisitions. He holds a Master’s in Property from the University of Technology Sydney.
