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I’m a Finance Expert: Here’s How Long It Will Take To Recover From Inflation If Trump Wins

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I’m a Finance Expert: Here’s How Long It Will Take To Recover From Inflation If Trump Wins

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Steep inflation has haunted Americans as our number one bogeyman over the last two and a half years.

Check Out: I’m an Economist: Here’s My Prediction for Social Security If Trump Wins the 2024 Election

Read Next: 9 Things You Must Do To Grow Your Wealth in 2024

“We’ve experienced high inflation over the last three years because of how much money we flooded into our financial system as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” explains CFP and MBA Scott Sturgeon of Oread Wealth. “These include stimulus checks, PPP loans, quantitative easing and other pandemic-era policies that lingered too long. The more dollars there are pursuing the same goods and services, the more those goods and services will increase in price as a response.”

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Trump’s proposed policies prove a mixed bag for their impact on inflation. Some would likely reduce it, while others would exacerbate it. Consider the push and pull of each as you prognosticate future inflation rates.

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Deflationary Policies Under Trump

Sara Routhier, finance expert with FreeAdvice.com, sees a slow road ahead. “If Trump wins, it will most likely take two to three years to recover from the inflation we have seen over the last few years. If Harris wins the election, there is a good chance that inflation will continue to rise.”

Learn More: Trump Wants To Eliminate Income Taxes: How Would That Impact You If You Are Retired?

So which of Trump’s policies will help reduce inflation?

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Slower Immigration

“Trump’s tighter immigration policies should help reduce inflation,” observes Routhier. “The government would spend less on undocumented immigrants’ housing, medical expenses, and other assimilation costs.”

Reduced government spending isn’t the only reason why slower immigration would also slow inflation. Immigration fuels population growth, which in turn fuels economic growth through higher demand for goods and services. Inflation goes hand in hand with hot economic growth, so reducing population growth and consumer demand should tamp down on inflation.

Greater Domestic Energy Production

At rally after rally, Trump has promised to “drill baby drill” to increase domestic oil and gas production. Greater energy supply drives down energy prices, helping to reduce inflation.

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Melanie Musson, a finance expert with Clearsurance.com, points to lower US energy prices and fewer foreign imports. “If Trump is elected again, you can expect a shift away from foreign dependence, similar to his first presidency.”

Reduced Federal Spending (Maybe)

More government spending means more money flooding into the economy. Read: inflation.

Historically, Republican candidates have proposed slimmer government spending, which can help cut inflation. That said, Donald Trump is by no means a classical conservative.

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Trump’s first administration continued to spend more each year, outspending the Obama Administration in every year per The American Presidency Project.

You could make a case that a second Trump Administration would increase federal spending at a slower pace than a Harris Administration. But that argument rests on the “lesser of two evils” for exacerbating inflation, as opposed to a policy solution.

Trump Policies that Would Increase Inflation

Many of Trump’s policy proposals would increase inflation rather than continue taming it.

Pressuring Lower Interest Rates

Despite appointing Jerome Powell as the chair of the Federal Reserve, Donald Trump has been his fiercest critic. He told Fox Business earlier this year that he wouldn’t reappoint Powell, and accused him of being “political.”

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In fact, Trump has gone so far as claiming the power to fire a sitting Fed chair, as reported by The Hill. He has repeatedly campaigned this year on lowering interest rates — which of course fuels inflation.

“Higher interest rates have helped cool inflation by cooling down an overheated economy,” explains Sturgeon. And racing to slash interest rates too quickly can drive inflation rates right back up again.

Tariffs

It doesn’t take an economist to see that adding new taxes on imports makes those imported goods more expensive. Retailers don’t just eat those higher costs — they pass them on to consumers. “Broad tariffs typically raise prices for everyday goods,” explains Paul Tyler from annuity provider Zinnia.

Trump initially called for a 10% blanket tariff on all imports, which he has more recently raised to 20% as reported by CNBC. On Chinese imports, that rate would jump to 60%.

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That spells inflation on imports, for everyday consumers.

Tax Cuts

Tax cuts stimulate the economy by leaving consumers and companies more money to spend, grow, and hire.

To juice the economy, Trump has proposed extending the provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 indefinitely, and reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% (see this analysis by the Tax Foundation).

Sometimes the economy does need stimulating. But when the economy is overstimulated — like it’s been for the last three years — that stimulus leads to inflation.

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Reduced Federal Regulation

Government regulation works like a throttle on the economy. When the government tightens regulation, it squeezes the flow of goods and services, while loosening regulation increases the flow.

Like reducing taxes, reducing regulation stimulates the economy, which is in turn inflationary.

Dana Miranda, Certified Educator in Personal Finance and author at Healthy Rich, sees regulation as a check on retailers raising prices. “Corporate price gouging can be a major factor in inflation, and it can be addressed with regulation by federal agencies. Harris has proposed regulatory and tax increases on corporations. Trump’s policies favor corporations and likely wouldn’t wrangle inflation any better than it is now.”

Final Thoughts

Each candidates’ policies would have a mixed effect on inflation. Don’t expect either candidate to wave a magic wand and make inflation disappear.

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Instead, expect a slow march back to 2% inflation — or a fast drop if the economy falls into recession.

Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.

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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: I’m a Finance Expert: Here’s How Long It Will Take To Recover From Inflation If Trump Wins

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Stamford Finance Students Wow Judges, Take Home Trophy in Regional CFA Competition – UConn Today

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Stamford Finance Students Wow Judges, Take Home Trophy in Regional CFA Competition – UConn Today

A tenacious team of finance majors, who sacrificed most of their winter break to prepare for the CFA Institute Research Challenge, took first place in that regional competition last week.

Students Hunter Baillargeon, Dylan Fischetto, Richard Opper, Philip Ochocinski and Rushit Chauhan were tasked with researching and analyzing a major utility company, and then producing a 10-page report about whether to buy, hold, or sell its stock. They chose to sell.

One of the CFA judges said both the team’s report and presentation were among the best he had seen in many years.

“As a team, we were thrilled our hard work paid off and our many hours of work allowed us to achieve what we did,’’ Baillargeon said. “What we accomplished couldn’t have been done without working with such a cohesive and collective unit.’’

“From a technical perspective, I realize how valuable true analysis is and the importance of looking where others don’t for a differentiated approach,’’ Baillargeon said.

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The first round of competition featured 24 college teams from the Stamford-Hartford-Providence region. The Stamford team, composed of seniors all of whom all participate in UConn’s Student Managed Fund program, received its first-place award Feb. 26 in a ceremony in Hartford. The team will advance to the East Coast competition later this month.

Stamford Finance Program is Robust

“The Stamford team’s advancement in this competition reflects not only the students’ exceptional talent and work ethic, but also the rigor and applied focus of the UConn finance curriculum,’’ said professor Yiming Qian, head of the Finance Department.

“Our Stamford campus hosts approximately 200 financial management majors. The Stamford program is a vital part of the School and continues to demonstrate outstanding strength,” she said.

Professors Steve Wilson and Jeff Bianchi, who combined have 75 years of experience in the investment industry, were the team’s advisers and were supported by academic director Katherine Pancak.

Wilson said the task of analyzing a utility is particularly complex because of the company’s structure and the regulatory environment in which it operates.

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“I believe the Stamford team stood out because of the depth of their research, and willingness to take a bold stand, including the decision to ‘go out on a limb’ and recommend selling the stock,’’ he said. “They didn’t ‘play it safe.’’’

“This clean-sweep was a true team effort. They were tireless throughout, and sleepless too often, but they never wavered from their desire to always dig deeper and uncover any information that would strengthen our investment case,’’ he said. “What a phenomenal job they did!’’

Competition in Hong Kong Is Ultimate Goal

The Stamford team will compete against Loyola, Canisius, Sacred Heart; Seton Hall, Villanova, St. Michaels, Western New England, University of Maine, Fordham and Penn State next. In total, some 8,000 students are expected to participate in various competitions worldwide, culminating in a championship round in Hong Kong in May.

Wilson said the financial industry is always welcoming of new talent. And when one of the judges told him that the Stamford team produced some of the best work that he’d seen in years, Wilson felt tremendous pride for the students.

“Finance is an open playing field. In investments, the best idea wins,’’ he said.

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Baillargeon said he will always appreciate the whole team’s dedication.

“What I’ll remember most is the help of our advisers and our cohesive, close-knit team where everyone pulled their weight,’’ Baillargeon said. “We put in long hours, did a tremendous amount of research, and collaborated well together. I hope when I enter the workforce I get to work with a team as committed as this one is.’’

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Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath

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Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath



Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath
















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Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers


Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers


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Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath







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How “impact accounting” can integrate sustainability with finance

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How “impact accounting” can integrate sustainability with finance

Around three years ago, Charles Giancarlo, CEO of data platform Pure Storage, came back from Davos and asked his sustainability team to look into an idea he’d encountered at the meeting: Impact accounting, a method for integrating emissions and other externalities into company balance sheets. 

The idea had been slowly picking up adherents in Europe for around a decade, but Pure Storage, which rebranded this month to Everpure, would go on to become the first U.S. company to join the Value Balancing Alliance (VBA), a group of 30 or so companies developing the approach. Trellis checked in last week with Everpure and the VBA for an update.

How does impact accounting work?

At the heart of the approach are a set of “valuation factors,” developed by third-party experts, that are used to convert activity data for emissions, water use, air pollution and other externalities into dollar figures that can be integrated into balance sheets. In the case of emissions, for example, the VBA uses $220 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, a figure based on the estimated social impact of rising greenhouse gases levels. 

At Everpure, one long-term goal is to have cost centers be aware of the dollar impact of relevant externalities. After an initial focus on identifying and collecting the most material data, the team is now rolling out a dashboard containing several years of impact accounting numbers.

“It’s catered to different personas,” explained Adrienne Uphoff, Everpure’s ESG regulations and impact accounting manager. Finance was an initial use case, with product managers also on the roadmap. “You can compare it to financial numbers to really understand the impact intensity.”

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What value does the approach bring?

“The essence of impact accounting is that you’re translating all these different metrics in the sustainability space into the language the decision makers understand,” said Christian Heller, the VBA’s CEO. “Everyone understands what you’re talking about, and you get a sense of the magnitude of your impact and the risks and opportunities.”

This has allowed Everpure to calculate what Uphoff called the “environmental costs of goods sold” and to estimate the impact of circular strategies, such as refurbishing hardware. The analysis reveals “impact savings across the full value chain across five different environmental topics all in a single dollar unit,” she said. 

Analyses like that can then be shared with customers and used to distinguish Everpure from competitors. “The long-term winners in this space are going to be those that can perform against sustainability goals,” said Kathy Mulvany, Everpure’s global head of sustainability. “Impact accounting gives us a way to bring comparability, so companies can understand how they’re truly stacking up.”

What does it take to implement impact accounting?

A great deal of technical work goes into creating valuation factors, but the system is designed so that outside experts create the numbers and hand them to sustainability professionals for use. Still, not every company will have the in-house environmental data that is also needed. Many companies have been collecting emissions data for five years or more, for example, but detailed datasets for water use are less common.

Internal teams also need to be familiar with the concepts. “One of the key learnings from our impact accounting implementation is that the socialization curve is longer than you expect,” said Uphoff. “Attaching monetary values on externalities introduces new metrics and mental models, and that can naturally make people a little nervous at first. It takes time and dialogue for teams to build confidence in how to interpret this new lens on performance.” 

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What’s next?

In the early days of impact accounting, companies and consultancies worked independently on different methodologies. Now that work is coalescing, said Heller. The International Standards Organization will start work on a standard this summer, he added, and the VBA is having conversations with the IFRS Foundation, which creates international financial reporting standards.

The approach may also be integrated into mandatory disclosure standards. Heller noted that the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive mentions the potential benefits of companies putting a dollar figure on some environmental impacts. “It’s the next evolutionary step of any kind of sustainability disclosure regulations,” he said.

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