World
The Iran War and Angry Voters
Much of Britain goes to the polls today. There are local elections in England, and parliamentary elections in Wales and Scotland. They are a big test for the government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose Labour Party is bracing for crushing losses. If pollsters are right, the right-wing populist Reform U.K. party will win the highest overall vote share.
There are many reasons Europe’s political center is so unpopular. Starmer’s counterparts in Germany and France are also polling at historic lows. But the war in Iran isn’t helping. Today I write about how the economic crisis sparked by the war is accelerating the rise of the nationalist right across Europe.
How the Iran war is boosting Europe’s far right
Last week I was in Germany, where I met with officials, journalists and a leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany party. I was struck by how much the conversation had shifted from just a few months ago, when I was last there. People not only expect the AfD to win an outright majority in state elections in September — they openly discuss the possibility of the AfD running, or at least joining, the federal government after the next national election.
The AfD is now the strongest party in opinion polls. Recent surveys show that it would win between 26 and 28 percent of the vote if elections were held today. That puts it ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democrats, at 22 to 24 percent, and at nearly twice the level of the Social Democrats, his coalition partner.
The far right has been on the rise for years. And Merz’s government has failed to deliver on many fronts, from infrastructure to economic growth, accelerating that rise. But what’s striking is that the AfD’s most recent surge in the polls — and the latest decline of the center-right and center-left — coincide with the economic fallout from the war in Iran.
That’s emblematic of a wider phenomenon. Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, incumbent governments around the world have been facing voters who are angry about the economic pain the war has inflicted. But in Europe in particular, where the most prominent opposition increasingly comes from right-wing populist parties, that has meant a near-continent-wide boost for the far right.
‘Crisis entrepreneurship’
The war has battered economies around the world. Protests over rising energy costs have rocked capitals from Dublin to Nairobi to Manila.
But Europe is noteworthy because populist parties across the continent have a well-honed playbook for capitalizing on just this sort of voter frustration. And they’re turning to it now.
I spoke to Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, who has interviewed far-right leaders for his new book, “Surviving Chaos.” He told me how the so-called new right in Europe thrives in the midst of crisis.
Right-wing populist parties use crises like the war, Leonard said, “to build their own legitimacy by showing that the mainstream parties are overwhelmed by them and unable to control the country’s destiny.” Then, they argue that the government response to the crisis highlights how these mainstream parties are not on the side of the people.
The AfD offers perhaps the starkest examples of this kind of “crisis entrepreneurship,” Leonard said. Born out of Europe’s debt crisis in the early 2010s as an anti-euro party, it used the migrant crisis of the mid-2010s to reinvent itself as an anti-immigrant party. It then tapped into anti-vaccine sentiment during the pandemic to present itself as the party of freedom.
In every one of these crises, Leonard said, the AfD argued that mainstream parties were on the side of foreigners or elites: They wanted to bail out Greeks, or let in refugees, or deprive Germans of basic freedoms.
The energy crisis resulting from the war is another opportunity for the AfD, Leonard said. It may show that not only are mainstream parties unequipped to manage a complicated world, but once again, with their efforts to, say, ban nuclear power and reduce fossil fuel reliance, they’re out of touch.
For parties like the AfD, Leonard said, an event like the war is “kind of manna from heaven.”
Solving the Trump problem
Starmer, who has been unpopular for a long time, was never going to have a good election.
But in January, before the war, he gave a speech about how Britain had turned a corner. Growth was projected to be 1.3 percent this year and an interest rate cut seemed imminent. Now, in the face of rising inflation, that cut has been shelved and the economy is barely expected to grow at all. With Britain predicted to take the biggest hit of any major economy as a result of the war, polls show Labour could lose three-quarters of its current seats.
In Germany, no far-right party has held power at the state or federal level since the end of World War II. But polls show the AfD could win an outright majority in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt this fall. That would render the firewall — the longtime consensus among other parties never to go into coalition with the far right — irrelevant.
Britain and Germany are not set to hold national elections until 2029, provided their weakened governments last that long. The next big European country to hold a national election where the far right might triumph is France in April next year.
When Trump was re-elected, Europe’s nationalist right celebrated. But his tariffs and threats to invade Greenland increasingly made him a liability with voters. The Trump boost became a Trump problem.
Ironically, perhaps, the war in Iran — which is as unpopular in Europe as anything the president has ever done — is helping far-right parties to solve that problem now.
For more: A sense of disaffection and frustration is rampant across Britain, opinion polls suggest. It will likely fuel an electoral disaster for Starmer’s party. Here’s what to know about the elections.
Conflicting messages on the state of Iran negotiations
Iran and the U.S. offered contradictory and rapidly changing assessments on the state of the war and peace talks yesterday.
Trump, hours after threatening more attacks on Iran, said in remarks from the Oval Office that the U.S. had “very good talks” with Iran in the last 24 hours. “We’re in good shape, and now we’re doing well, and we have to get what we have to get,” he said.
Iran gave a different take. Its Foreign Ministry spokesman said yesterday that the government was reviewing an American plan to end the war and would give its response to Pakistan, which is mediating talks. Earlier in the day, another official dismissed a reported proposal to end the war as “more a list of American wishes than a reality.”
For more: For Iran, lifting the U.S. military blockade of its ports and relieving pressure on its economy is one of the main incentives to seek a deal, my colleague Farnaz Fassihi writes. The country is running out of space to store its oil.
Israel applies the Gaza model in Lebanon
An analysis of satellite images, photos and videos verified by The Times shows the scope of Israel’s campaign in southern Lebanon. Widespread demolitions have flattened expanses in at least two dozen towns and villages near the border, with damage to government offices, schools, hospitals and mosques.
Israel says its operations are aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. Videos show that Israeli soldiers are using the same tactics in Lebanon that they employed in Gaza, including controlled demolitions. Take a look.
Football: Paris Saint-Germain defeated Bayern Munich to set up a Champions League final against Arsenal. Read the highlights.
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World Cup or bust
It’ll be tough for Argentina fans at the World Cup this year. Supporters have always flocked to the tournament in the tens of thousands. But this year, for the first time, FIFA has adopted dynamic pricing.
Argentina’s struggling economy often forces people to work two or even three jobs to make ends meet. And the new pricing system, similar to the way airline and concert tickets are sold, means tickets to see the most popular teams have spiked to staggering levels. Individual tickets for Argentina games now top $800, double the price of equivalent tickets for other teams in their group.
“It’s like they are trying to make some business with our passion,” one fan said. Still, some are selling their cars, maxing out credit cards and sleeping 10 to a room, just so they can go. Read more about the most expensive World Cup ever.
Cremini mushrooms, chickpeas and bulgur wheat mimic the texture of ground meat in this vegetarian twist on Swedish meatballs. Seasoned generously with allspice and nutmeg and blanketed in a velvety mushroom gravy, they are excellent over egg noodles or mashed potatoes.
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Iran, Trump shares draft agreement with Israel and other allies
US President Donald Trump has circulated the draft peace agreement for the war with Iran among allies, including Israel, while attempts are underway to prevent new ceasefire violations from escalating and derailing any agreement. Meanwhile, in an effort to accelerate negotiations, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, will be in Washington today to meet with his US counterpart, Marco Rubio.
Yesterday, Tehran targeted a US air base in Kuwait after Washington struck what it called an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the fragility of the situation as both negotiating parties refuse to give in on the final points of disagreement. On Wednesday, Trump’s cabinet was scheduled to discuss the deal, but Axios – which reported on the terms of the deal reached – reported that the US president needed a few more days to reflect on the eventual go-ahead.
Direct military negotiations between Israel and Lebanon start today at the Pentagon
The first direct meeting between Lebanese and Israeli military delegations opens today at the Pentagon as part of the negotiations promoted by the United States after the truce that came into effect, at least on paper, in mid-April. The talks take place while Israel intensifies raids and bombardments in Lebanon, including the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Jewish state has issued several forced displacement orders to Israeli civilians in Nabatiye and Tyre, the two main Lebanese cities in the south of the country. Beirut’s armed forces come to the table with a position defined by President Joseph Aoun, who is considered close to the United States: a complete ceasefire, an end to Israeli operations, withdrawal from the occupied areas in the south, and increased army deployment along the border. Beirut also demands the release of Lebanese prisoners, the return of displaced persons, and international support for reconstruction. The meeting follows two previous negotiating sessions held in Washington on 14 and 15 May, which led to the extension of the ‘truce’ for 45 days. The United States, engaged in large-scale negotiations with Hezbollah supporter Iran, is aiming to strengthen direct military coordination between the two sides. In this sense, a new political round at the State Department is scheduled for 2 and 3 June. However, the most delicate knot remains on the table: Israel claims the right to conduct preventive operations against threats considered imminent, a formula contested by Beirut and at the centre of internal Lebanese tensions. At the same time, Washington continues to exert pressure on the Hezbollah disarmament dossier, while the Shiite movement reiterates its rejection of direct negotiations and continues its operations against the Israeli occupation forces in southern Lebanon. According to data gathered from Lebanese sources, more than 4,500 Israeli violations, more than 5,500 homes destroyed, and direct or indirect Israeli military control over more than 65 locations in South Lebanon have been recorded since the start of the mid-April ‘truce’.
Emir Qatar hears Trump, ‘priority to political and diplomatic solutions’
Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has asked US President Donald Trump to “prioritise political and diplomatic solutions” in the Middle East, in the context of negotiations between Washington and Tehran for a possible agreement. The request came during a phone call between the two leaders, during which international efforts to reduce tensions in the region were addressed. This was reported by the Qatari state agency Qna. Al Thani emphasised ‘the need to prioritise political and diplomatic solutions, as well as dialogue between all parties, to consolidate regional security and stability and avoid further tensions and escalation’. Washington meanwhile confirmed an agreement in principle with Iran to extend the 60-day truce and guarantee shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but the understanding remains pending Trump’s approval and has not yet been confirmed by Tehran.
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Israeli and Lebanese military delegations opened Pentagon-mediated talks Friday morning in Washington, launching a new U.S.-brokered security coordination track aimed at preventing renewed escalation along the Israel–Lebanon border and shoring up a fragile ceasefire reached in mid-April.
A State Department official told Fox News Digital that, “As we have continuously stated, the only path to lasting peace is through direct negotiations between the two sovereign governments.”
The discussions mark a shift from diplomatic negotiations into direct military coordination, with talks expected to focus on ceasefire enforcement, border stability, Israeli withdrawal from parts of southern Lebanon and the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces in containing Hezbollah.
ISRAEL MOVES TOWARDS CEASEFIRE DEAL WITH HEZBOLLAH: REPORTS
Michael Needham, counselor for the U.S. Department of State, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Nada Hamadeh Moawad, and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter pose for a photo before a meeting at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on April 14, 2026. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo)
The talks come weeks after a U.S.-brokered ceasefire first reached during the broader regional conflict tied to the U.S.–Iran war. While large-scale fighting has eased, Israeli forces continue operating inside parts of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah maintains drone and rocket capabilities, keeping tensions high along the border.
The ceasefire was extended on May 15 for another 45 days, creating pressure on both sides to show progress before the current arrangement expires.
But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse.
“This will be the first meeting between representatives of the militaries since the start of the negotiation process between Lebanon and Israel,” Ahmed Sharawi, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told Fox News Digital.
Representing Lebanon in the talks is Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal, who previously served as commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon, an area where Hezbollah maintains a strong presence. Hezbollah is the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization.
“What we should expect is talks regarding de-confliction and what the expectations are for the LAF in terms of the broader disarmament plan against Hezbollah’s weapons,” he said.
Sharawi said the chances of a broader breakthrough remain limited so long as Hezbollah remains heavily armed and politically entrenched inside Lebanon.
“The biggest obstacle here is that the Lebanese state is yet to present a feasible plan to disarm Hezbollah,” he said.
LAWMAKERS QUESTION WHETHER US MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO CAPITALIZE ON HEZBOLLAH’S WEAKENED STATE
But analysts say the central question overshadowing the talks is whether Lebanon can realistically curb Hezbollah’s military power without risking internal collapse. (Ibrahim AMRO / AFP via Getty Images)
He pointed to the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, which placed responsibility for disarming Hezbollah on the Lebanese state.
“We are yet to see the confiscation of one single bullet from Hezbollah,” Sharawi said.
He also warned that Hezbollah’s deep support among Lebanon’s Shiite population complicates any attempt to move toward normalization with Israel.
“There’s a fear of a civil war,” he said. “That also accounts for the Lebanese state’s unwillingness to disarm Hezbollah.”
The talks opened as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled Israel intends to maintain military pressure on Hezbollah despite the negotiations.
Sharawi argued the Trump administration nevertheless appears determined to push the process forward as part of a broader effort to weaken Iranian influence in the region.
“The reason behind these meetings is that President Trump is really trying to push for a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon,” he said. “Peace between these two countries could really undermine Hezbollah and its influence in Lebanon.”
WALTZ SAYS TRUMP HAS CREATED ‘BEST CHANCE IN OUR LIFETIME’ TO BREAK HEZBOLLAH’S GRIP ON LEBANON
Churches in the southern Lebanese town of Rmeish remained standing throughout the conflict, as residents say the community resisted Hezbollah attempts to launch rockets from the area. (Jusoor News)
Israeli analysts similarly described the talks less as a breakthrough and more as a strategic signal aimed at Hezbollah.
“The war between us and Hezbollah is continuing,” Yossi Kuperwasser, senior project manager at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former head of the Research Division of Israeli Military Intelligence, told Fox News Digital.
“There is no doubt the Lebanese government does not have a monopoly on the use of force in Lebanon,” he said.
‘OVERBLOWN’ REPORTS ON ISRAEL–LEBANON NORMALIZATION RISK HINDERING BORDER TALKS BEFORE THEY BEGIN: OFFICIAL
IDF troops discovered a Hezbollah weapons cache near a UNIFIL post in southern Lebanon in 2024. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)
Kuperwasser said expectations for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough should remain low, but argued the talks themselves send an important political message.
“The purpose of these talks is first and foremost to send a message to Hezbollah and also to the Americans,” he said. “Both sides are prepared to sit together against Hezbollah and signal that they are moving, even if slowly, toward normalization between Israel and Lebanon.”
He argued Hezbollah has been weakened politically and militarily by the ongoing conflict and by growing frustration among Lebanese civilians displaced by the fighting.
“For years Hezbollah portrayed itself as the defender of Lebanon,” Kuperwasser said. “Now many Lebanese see Hezbollah as responsible for the suffering Lebanon is experiencing.”
Kuperwasser added that while Israel supports strengthening the Lebanese army, Beirut fears direct confrontation with Hezbollah could ignite another civil war.
“The Lebanese government fears military action against Hezbollah would lead to civil war,” he said. “That fear shapes everything.”
The talks also come amid mounting domestic pressure inside Israel, where critics of Netanyahu have accused the government of pursuing containment rather than decisive military victory against Hezbollah.
Speaking Friday during a visit to Israel’s northern front, Netanyahu said Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River and were operating across multiple parts of Lebanon.
“We are operating in Beirut, in the Bekaa Valley, across the entire front and striking Hezbollah hard,” Netanyahu said.
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A woman holds her dog as she walks past burned cars a day after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, on April 9, 2026. (Emilio Morenatti/AP)
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s leadership is attempting to balance growing American pressure with fears of internal instability and renewed sectarian conflict.
Neither the Israeli Embassy in Washington nor the Lebanese Embassy in Washington immediately responded to requests for comment. The Pentagon did not have anything to add when asked to comment.
The United Nations has confirmed it placed Israel on a blacklist of countries suspected of committing sexual violence against civilians, and pushed back on accusations made by Israel regarding its inclusion.
The list, part of a “conflict-related sexual violence” report released on Friday, prompted Israel’s foreign ministry to say it would sever all ties with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
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Last August, the UN cited “credible information” regarding sexual violence committed by Israeli security forces against Palestinian detainees in prisons and other detention centres, and said UN inspectors had been denied access to the facilities.
“We invited the representative of the UN to come to Israel to check those ridiculous allegations. They chose not to come,” Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon posted on X on Thursday.
“I never received an iota of information on measures taken by the government of Israel on implementation of the preventive measures,” Pramila Patten, the UN official who authored the report, told reporters on Friday at a briefing at the UN’s New York headquarters.
“I have made several requests in writing, and sometimes during meetings, for details about initial steps, including the issuance of orders of command information on access and information on accountability measures, but I did not get any response on the substantive aspect of the preventive measures,” she added.
Patten did confirm that there had been an invitation from Israel, but referred also to disagreements about the scope of the visit and related issues of access and cooperation, and said it ultimately had to be suspended due to Israel’s war on Gaza.
‘Multiple incidents’ in Gaza and occupied West Bank
This year’s report said that in 2025 “the United Nations verified multiple incidents of conflict-related sexual violence, including as a form of torture, inflicted against 14 men, seven women, nine boys and one girl from the Gaza Strip and the [occupied] West Bank.”
It said 13 of the attacks happened last year, and 18 in 2023 and 2024.
“Violations consisted of rape, including with objects, gang rape, attempted rape, physical violence to the genitals, instances of targeted shooting of the genitals, touching of breasts and genitals, strip and cavity searches conducted without apparent security justification, forced nudity and threats of rape,” it said.
“Rape and gang rape, in some cases repeated, were perpetrated against nine victims, the majority Palestinians from Gaza,” it said, adding that perpetrators included Israeli armed and security forces. The assaults occurred primarily during detention and interrogation in several sites, including military camps, at checkpoints and during Israeli military operations in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
It said survivors included journalists and human rights defenders and in some cases, the violations were filmed or photographed, including one case of rape.
The report added that sexual violence against female detainees included mostly threats of rape, forced nudity, unwanted touching, and humiliating or degrading strip searches without justification, while men and boys were targeted with rape, attempted rape and violence to the genitals.
This resulted in five male victims suffering severe rectal bleeding or swelling for multiple days or weeks, it added.
Russia added to list alongside Israel
The latest UN report also contains harrowing descriptions of abuses at the hands of Russia’s military after “findings of continued patterns of sexual violence documented”.
The UN human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine had verified 310 cases of conflict-related sexual violence perpetrated by Russian armed and security forces.
It said the cases, including rape, gang rape, genital mutilation, electric shocks and beatings to the genitals, injured 280 men, 26 women and four girls.
The report’s annex lists 77 parties deemed responsible for patterns of conflict-related sexual violence, including 62 non-state actors.
New additions include three non-state armed groups operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Nearly 10,000 cases of conflict-related sexual violence were recorded worldwide last year – more than double the previous year’s figure, the report said.
Being added to the list does not automatically carry specific punitive measures such as sanctions, although public naming and shaming can cause significant reputational damage for the states involved, and those repeatedly listed are barred from UN peacekeeping operations.
Patten said the increase in cases of conflict-related sexual violence verified by the United Nations marks a very disturbing trend that was still only the “very tip of the iceberg”.
“This number can be attributed to the fact that we are going through a time when we have a record number of extremely violent conflicts, and the fact that perpetrators are feeling emboldened by a context of impunity, where this crime is almost cost-free,” she said.
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