Finance
Expert's rogue 2026 RBA interest rates prediction: 'Pay the price'
Two experts believe Aussie homeowners won’t get any mortgage relief until at least 2026. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold interest rates at the 13-year high of 4.35 per cent following its two-day September meeting.
Not a single expert from Finder’s research was tipping a cut from this meeting and the overwhelming majority (15) believe the first round of cuts will happen in February 2025. But Richard Holden, Professor of Economics at UNSW Business School, told Yahoo Finance homeowners should expect to hold their breath longer — much longer.
“We’re not going to solve this inflation problem by cutting rates. We’re going to make it worse,” he said.
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He and Malcolm Wood, Ord Minnett’s head of institutional research, reckon the first rate cut won’t come until sometime in 2026.
The RBA has been insistent that inflation has to come into the 2-3 per cent range before rates should be cut.
Governor Michele Bullock said a lot of work needs to be done to get inflation down and all but ruled out a rate cut this year.
Will you be forced to sell your home if the RBA doesn’t cut rates this year? Email stew.perrie@yahooinc.com
At the post-meeting press conference, Bullock said the bank isn’t convinced inflation is moving in the direction it needs for a cut.
“The board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target before any decisions are made about a reduction in interest rates, so we really need to see progress on underlying inflation coming back down toward the target,” she said.
Where is inflation at the moment?
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows inflation has fallen dramatically since the 2022 peak of 7.8 per cent.
On Wednesday, new figures revealed it dropped to its lowest point in nearly three years to just 2.7 per cent in the 12 months to August, which is down from 3.5 per cent in July.
But a big factor in that fall are the state and federal electricity subsidies handed out after July 1.
Holden said it’s “misleading” to focus on headline inflation because it can be swayed by things like government handouts.
He said the number to keep your eyes on is trimmed inflation, which is also called core inflation or underlying inflation.
This “smooths out the impact of temporary or irregular price changes” like from subsidies and excludes the top and bottom 15 per cent of price changes to give a more accurate reflection of what’s going on in Australia’s economy. The economist said that number is much harder to move.
“Underlying inflation is a long game,” he told Yahoo Finance.
The RBA also noted that trimmed inflation has been particularly sticky over the past few months.
“Our current forecasts do not see inflation returning sustainably to target until 2026,” it said in its September meeting notes.
“In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters and has fallen very little over the past year.”
Trimmed inflation came in at 3.4 per cent for August, which is still a considerable drop from the 3.8 per cent in July.
Economist and Yahoo Finance contributor Stephen Koukoulas has argued the RBA should feel comfortable cutting interest rates soon based on headline inflation.
“The RBA is refusing to cut interest rates because it is guessing that the step lower in inflation in August will be temporary, a call that is based on faith not facts,” he wrote.
“In the end, the markets embraced the low inflation result and yet again discounted the RBA view of the economy by pricing in a better than even chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut before the end of 2024 and a total of 125 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of 2025.”
But what about other countries cutting their interest rates?
The US Federal Reserve announced last week it was finally reducing its interest rates from a 23-year high.
In a near-unanimous decision, the rate was slashed by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 4.75 to 5 per cent.
It was the first rate cut since 2020 and experts are predicting there will be two more rate cuts by Christmas, four more cuts in 2025 and twice again in 2026.
Inflation peaked in the US in June 2022 at 9.1 per cent and is now at 2.5 per cent.
The US’s move brought it in line with other major nations including the European Union, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, Denmark, Switzerland, China, and many others.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said waiting longer to reduce the federal funds rate compared to other nations “really paid dividends” as it allowed policymakers to get more comfortable about the downward path of inflation.
Holden said Australia will likely have to follow a similar path.
“It’s a real shame that we didn’t do what the US and the UK and Canada and Europe and New Zealand did, which was take our medicine early on, raise rates more aggressively, deal with the problem, not be so lavish with government spending,” he explained to Yahoo Finance.
“You can see the fruits of that… look at America… that’s the story of what we should have done, and we haven’t done it, and we’re all paying the price for it.”
When do the Big Four banks think interest rates will drop?
Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to cut rates in December 2024. It thinks there will be five 0.25 per cent cuts by the end of 2025, taking the cash rate to 3.10 per cent.
Westpac thinks there will be a cut in February 2025, with four 0.25 per cent cuts in total to bring the cash rate down to 3.35 per cent.
NAB thinks it will be in May 2025, although it says February is possible, with five 0.25 per cent cuts down to 3.10 per cent.
ANZ has forecast a February 2025 cut, with three cuts in total to bring the cash rate down to 3.60 per cent.
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Finance
How Applied Materials Is Driving Transformation of the Finance Function with SAP Taulia
Within the global manufacturing industry, maintaining a competitive edge requires a delicate balance between driving internal efficiency and fostering strong external relationships. For Applied Materials, a leader in materials engineering solutions for the semiconductor industry, this challenge became the foundation for a strategic finance transformation program, with an SAP Taulia solution emerging as a key enabler.
The journey began in early 2019 with the launch of Agile Finance, an end-to-end transformation initiative designed to support the company’s aggressive growth trajectory, which included a goal to double in size. The initiative was built around three strategic pillars: enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the finance organization, promoting career fulfillment, and establishing a robust digital operating model. The impact was significant, with the finance function achieving approximately 35% productivity gains in its labor force.
The third pillar—the move to a digital operating model—is where the partnership with SAP Taulia began.
“The SAP Taulia Dynamic Discounting solution was introduced not merely as a cost-cutting measure, but as a strategic tool to transform and digitize the interaction with Applied’s extensive, global supplier base,” Junaid Ahmed, corporate VP, Finance at Applied Materials, says. “We understood that to reap the benefits of digitization, we had to ensure the suppliers were on board. It needed to be a win-win outcome.”
Unprecedented flexibility for suppliers
The program empowers suppliers—thousands of them worldwide—to self-select which approved invoices they wish to discount for early payment. This is not a continuous, all-or-nothing commitment but rather a decision made on an invoice-by-invoice basis. This flexibility allows suppliers to manage their working capital needs with greater precision, taking advantage of early payment during their own critical periods, such as quarter-end or year-end, to help meet their own financial targets.
The system also drastically improves transactional efficiency. Suppliers no longer have to call Applied to track invoice status, approval, or payment date. All this information is available 24/7 in the SAP Taulia solution, reducing resource allocation on both sides and ensuring both reap the benefits of moving to an integrated, digital system.
Strategic benefits for Applied Materials
For Applied, the program is a testament to its focus on balancing efficiency with strong supplier relationships. The philosophy is a “win-win” built on a crucial spread: Applied Materials, as a Fortune 500 company with strong cash flow, has a significantly lower cost of capital than many of its suppliers. By funding the discounts, Applied captures a return—the discount income—while offering its suppliers funding at a rate close to their cost of capital, but with greater convenience.
This relationship-focused approach is critical. Applied’s supplier account managers actively support the program because they recognize its mutual benefit, not viewing it as a finance mandate to push costs onto the supply base.
Furthermore, the “dynamic” nature of the discount rates is a powerful risk mitigation tool. Unlike fixed contractual discounts, the rates can be adjusted in response to global economic changes, such as shifts in interest rates. When interest rates rose after the pandemic, Applied was able to adjust the discount rates accordingly with minimal pushback, as the core proposition remains the valuable spread between the parties’ cost of capital.
The SAP Taulia Dynamic Discounting solution has been rolled out globally, giving all suppliers the opportunity to use it. This has been critical over the last 12 months as many businesses around the globe have been subject to new and often unexpected tariff costs impacting their margin and their liquidity.
“The flexibility of the solution means suppliers can access funds when they need them, which helps them navigate some of the economic uncertainty that many businesses are facing,” Dirk Holoubek, managing director, Finance Shared Services, explains. “2025 saw a 23% increase in usage of the discounts, reflecting the pressures that suppliers are feeling right now on their cash flow.”
The solution’s capability to drive sophisticated analytics is also a major strategic asset. It helps provide insights into the different costs of capital between Applied and its supplier base. This data allows for targeted outreach and communication, ensuring that the offer of capital support is proactively extended to the suppliers that need it most.
The strategic value of the solution is further cemented by its ownership. The acquisition of Taulia by SAP brings several advantages.
“Trust is really important to both us and our suppliers,” Ahmed says. “For our suppliers to adopt a new solution, they need to know its technology they can rely on in the long term. Being part of SAP creates that assurance in the long-term future of the program.”
Looking forward, Applied Materials is already focused on the next stage of the transformation project: Agile Finance 3.0, which is focused on enabling the organization to become AI-first. The company is deploying a global, organization-wide AI assistant to drive personal productivity, but the strategic application of AI in the supplier management space is even more profound.
AI is expected to transform decision-making enablement by analyzing critical information and communicating effective options. In the future, AI will be able to proactively assess the specific needs and attributes of the supplier base, enabling Applied to address issues more quickly and resolve them earlier. The benefits are already tangible in e-invoicing: AI has made the solution more flexible and “human-like,” capable of reading minor changes in invoice format that would have previously caused electronic errors. This reduced rigidity and increased flexibility are directly contributing to the overall efficiency of the digital operating model.
By leveraging the SAP Taulia Dynamic Discounting solution, Applied Materials has not only digitized a process but also strategically transformed its financial operations, creating a system that is agile, resilient, and focused on maintaining mutually beneficial relationships with its global supplier ecosystem.
Cedric Bru is CEO of SAP Taulia.
Finance
Houston budget amendment would give financial assistance to help those impacted by a trash fee
HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — Houston City Council could soon consider whether to offer financial assistance to help those who may struggle to afford a proposed trash fee.
This month, council will approve a budget. In it, Mayor John Whitmire doesn’t increase taxes.
However, he does want to charge a $5 monthly fee to cover trash services. A plan to help close the city’s nearly $200 million deficit that doesn’t add up to some.
Speaking in front of council on Wednesday, Super Neighborhood 64 president Lindsay Williams brought more than concerns, she had numbers surrounding the mayor’s proposed $5 monthly trash fee.
A plan his team says could climb to $25 a month by 2032. If it does, Williams told council that $300 annual cost would be just .15% of a $200,000 income.
For someone making $15,000, it’s two percent. “More than 13 times the burden for the same trash, same truck and same fee, but not the same pay,” Williams explained.
However, Controller Chris Hollins said the mayor’s not being truthful about the real cost.
“Houstonians are not stupid,” Hollins said. “We should not treat Houstonians like they’re stupid.”
Hollins said the cost may need to be $40 a month. Whitmire didn’t respond to Hollins during the meeting when he asked if he plans to increase the fee.
No matter the cost, some council members want to offer financial relief. Right now, there are no exceptions.
However, an amendment council will consider from Council Member Alejandra Salinas next week would change that.
“If they for whatever reason met the threshold and need an additional need because of the administrative fee, our amendment would allow them to apply for funds through the water fund,” Salinas said.
The trash fee wasn’t the only item from the mayor’s seven and a half billion dollar budget proposal that sparked debate. Hollins said a plan to divert money away from water utilities could drain a billion over the next five years from infrastructure money.
Whitmire disagrees saying there’s more than enough funds to handle the change, and continue with projects.
“We’ve all admitted the budget’s not perfect, but certainly it’s a first start that Houstonians understand and it’s a shame it’s being so politicized because it’s literally people’s lives and death,” Whitmire said.
Council will vote on amendments next week. It has to have a new budget in place by the end of the month.
Copyright © 2026 KTRK-TV. All Rights Reserved.
Finance
How can I illustrate our financial position to a spouse who shows little interest?
Reader question: My spouse has little interest in our financial position. As we age, this concerns me. I try to share some basic information (income, spending, account balances, debt, and so on) each month but rarely get a response. I think graphs or charts might be of more interest to her than a bunch of numbers. What recommendations would you have for illustrating our financial position so that I am not the only person aware of how we are situated? Thanks!
Answer: Your situation is pretty common. Most couples I know develop a division of labor over time, where one person is in charge of financial matters and the other person is less involved. That’s definitely the case for my husband and me. He’s in charge of paying all the monthly bills and preparing our tax returns, but the financial planning and investment decisions are up to me. This type of arrangement might work well for a long time, but can become less sustainable with age, particularly if the “finance person” in the relationship dies or develops a major health issue.
Online tools and mind maps
Illustrating your financial situation with charts and graphs is a great idea that might help your spouse become a little more involved. Morningstar’s Portfolio X-Ray tool includes a variety of images that help illustrate your financial situation. Websites for most major brokerage firms also include some visual tools. Schwab, for example, offers a Portfolio Checkup and a bar graph illustrating your account’s monthly income from dividends and interest income. Vanguard has a Portfolio Watch tool and a variety of performance illustrations, tools, and calculators.
A mind map, which we used with clients when I worked for a financial advisory firm, can be another way to picture your entire financial situation on one page. There are various softwaretemplates for drawing a mind map, or you can simply sketch it out with a large sheet of paper and a pencil. Start with your names at the center of the page. Then draw spokes connecting to various categories, such as names of other family members; investment accounts; real estate and other assets, insurance policies, estate plans, key goals and values, and contact information for accountants, estate planners, and other professionals. It can be helpful to go through the mind map together and make any updates needed at least once a year.
Other ways to communicate about money
A few other ideas—though not related to charts and graphs—might also be useful.
I like the idea of putting together a net worth statement that itemizes cash, taxable accounts, real estate, retirement accounts, and debt for each member of the couple as well as items owned jointly. It’s a good idea to update this document at least once a year and discuss it as a couple. If you set up the document as a spreadsheet, you can include columns with additional information such as account numbers, what each account is used for, which accounts are subject to required minimum distributions, or tax issues like potential capital gains.
Many couples also put together a binder (sometimes humorously called a “Doomsday Book”) that contains information about where to find important paperwork, insurance policies, how bills are paid, what each account is for, steps the surviving spouse will need to take, final wishes, and any other critical information.
A well-qualified financial adviser can bridge the information gap
Finally, you could consider working with a good financial adviser, who can help involve your spouse in financial matters while you’re still living and step in to fully manage investments and personal finance decisions if you pass away before your spouse. Make sure the adviser holds the Certified Financial Planner designation and charges fees that are reasonable. Although a 1% fee is still the industry standard for accounts of $1 million or less, it’s possible to find advisers who charge significantly less, including a few who price their services based on hours worked instead of a percentage of assets under management.
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This article was provided to The Associated Press by Morningstar. For more personal finance content, go to https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance.
Amy C. Arnott, CFA, is a portfolio strategist for Morningstar and co-host of The Long View podcast.
Related links:
What If This Turns Out to Be a Terrible Time to Retire?
https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/what-if-this-turns-out-be-terrible-time-retire
Bill Bengen: ‘Inflation Is the Greatest Enemy of Retirees’
https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/bill-bengen-inflation-is-greatest-enemy-retirees
3 Big Questions to Ask Your Aging Parents
https://www.morningstar.com/personal-finance/3-big-questions-ask-your-aging-parents
Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
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