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2024 MLB 'Wild-Card Era' Franchise Rankings: Rangers break into top 10, Cubs fall out

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2024 MLB 'Wild-Card Era' Franchise Rankings: Rangers break into top 10, Cubs fall out

As Jonah Heim squeezed the final strike of the 2023 postseason and Josh Sborz spiked his mitt on the mound to celebrate the Texas Rangers’ first World Series title, a thought crossed my mind: How will this change the franchise rankings?

See, the Wild-Card Era (1995 to present) franchise rankings are not a creation of my fallible mind. They are borne from a tested, trusted, completely objective, never-been-questioned, all-math, no-bias formula borrowed from football writer Bob Sturm and tweaked to fit baseball’s postseason structure.

Winning the World Series (WS): 9 points
Losing in the World Series (WSL): 6 points
Losing in the Championship Series (CS): 3 points
Losing in Division Series (DS): 2 points
Losing in Wild Card (WC): 1 point

As of last year, the scoring system also incentivizes division titles (+1 point) and penalizes prolonged losing cycles, docking teams (-1 point) each time they lose at least 90 games in consecutive seasons.

Tally the point totals for the past 29 seasons, from 1995 to 2023, and the result is the franchise rankings as listed below — along with each team’s point totals from the past decade, and average points per season. Tiebreakers are World Series wins, then World Series losses, then Championship Series appearances, then Division Series appearances, then division titles.

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The Pirates’ 76-86 season in 2023 didn’t dig their hole deeper, but it didn’t get them out of it, either. Since winning the 1979 World Series, they have reached the postseason six times — three-year runs from 1990-92 and 2013-15. The team is hoping its next core will author another such run. After signing Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller to extensions, the Pirates need continued progression from young big leaguers — Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinki, Henry Davis — and top prospects Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Termarr Johnson.

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Total playoff years: 13DS, 14WC, 15WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

8

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

Average: -.14 points per season

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The Royals bottomed out at 106 losses last season, tying the 2005 Royals for most losses in franchise history, and fell to 29th in this year’s franchise ranking as they were vaulted by the Orioles. After seven consecutive losing seasons, the Royals clearly are trying to turn a corner now. This winter, they guaranteed Bobby Witt Jr. $288.7 million, filled out their bench and pitching staff with free agents, and unveiled plans for a proposed downtown Kansas City ballpark. This fall marks a decade since the Royals ended their 29-year playoff drought and reached the World Series — then won it a year later. It remains the case that no team has made the playoffs fewer times in the Wild-Card Era than the Royals.

Total playoff years: 14WSL, 15WS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

9

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

Average: .24 points per season

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With the Detroit Lions defeating the Los Angeles Rams in January for their first playoff win since 1992, the Reds now own the longest active streak of not advancing in the playoffs among the four major US men’s sports leagues. Cincinnati swept the Dodgers in the 1995 NLDS, then were swept by the Braves in the NLCS, and they haven’t advanced in any of their four playoff seasons since. The current Reds core has a chance to remove themselves from that trivia answer. The lineup has several potential stars and only one projected starter over the age of 28.

Total playoff years: 95CS, 10DS, 12DS, 13WC, 20WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: -2 points (MLB rank: 30th)

The Orioles jumped two spots in this ranking by winning 101 games and the AL East last year, even if their playoff run fizzled fast. Adley Rutschman was AL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2022, Gunnar Henderson won the award in 2023, and now top prospect Jackson Holliday is one of the favorites to win in 2024. The Orioles still have the best farm system in baseball, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, even after trading top-100 prospect Joey Ortiz and former top-100 prospect DL Hall to Milwaukee for former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes.

Total playoff years: 96CS, 97CS, 12DS, 14CS, 16WC, 23DS

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Consecutive 90-loss seasons

8

Last decade: 7 points (MLB rank: t-19th)

The Blue Jays are one of a few teams toward the bottom of this list that would fare better if this exercise included the entire 1990s instead of starting in 1995. Toronto won back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993, but didn’t return to the playoffs for another 21 years. Though the Blue Jays have been a playoff team five times in the past nine seasons, including 2023, they’ve been swept in the Wild-Card Series in their last three tries. Even after failing to land a premier free agent this offseason, the Blue Jays have the bats, gloves and arms to be a division winner in 2024 — but so do three other teams in the AL East.

Total playoff years: 15CS, 16CS, 20WC, 22WC, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

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0

Last decade: 10 points (MLB rank: 15th)

The Rockies stayed in the same spot in the franchise rankings but were deducted a point for having back-to-back 90-loss seasons. They chased 94 losses in 2022 with 103 in 2023 — their first triple-digit loss total in franchise history. Todd Helton is a Hall of Famer, bringing back memories of the Rockies’ magical run to the 2007 World Series. The other bit of good news is that Nolan Jones could be a certified star in Colorado. But this doesn’t look like it’ll be the Rockies’ year to win their first division title. FanGraphs has their current playoff odds at 0.1 percent; their odds of winning the NL West, however, are 0.0 percent.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 07WSL, 09DS, 17WC, 18DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

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Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

The Brewers won their division last season yet still have the same points total. What gives? Well, time for a mea culpa. In auditing and updating the franchise rankings spreadsheet last month, I discovered an error. From 2001 to 2004, the Brewers lost 94, 106, 94 and 94 games, respectively, so they should have been deducted three points. I had only deducted one. To Brewers fans: I regret the error, just as the Brewers surely regret that era. As The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner wrote recently, Milwaukee has not finished last in their division since 2004. The Brewers have never won a World Series and have only one pennant (1982), but they’re reliably solid in a small market. They are now without Corbin Burnes, but they still have plenty of talent on the roster, plus Law’s No. 2 farm system.

Total playoff years: 08DS, 11CS, 18CS, 19WC, 20WC, 21DS, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 11 points (MLB rank: 14th)

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The Mariners had the pieces to be a playoff team again last season, having already exorcized demons in 2023 to end a two-decade postseason drought. But after getting hot in the second half Seattle stumbled in September and was eliminated from the playoffs with one game left in the season. On paper, they have one of the league’s best pitching staffs for 2024. The lineup still features Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford, but it has been overhauled with the additions of a new Mitch (Garver), an old Mitch (Haniger), Luke Raley and Jorge Polanco in hopes of getting more runs and fewer whiffs.

Total playoff years: 95CS, 97DS, 00CS, 01CS, 22DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 2 points (MLB rank: t-25th)

Never let it be said that this franchise-ranking formula doesn’t punish teams that subject their fans to prolonged down cycles (see also: Brewers blurb). The Nats/Expos lost five points for consecutive 90-loss seasons in the 1990s and 2000s, which they more than made up for with five playoff seasons (and a World Series title) in the 2010s. But their current rebuild has cost them another two points. There were some positive signs last year, like Lane Thomas’ 20-20 season, CJ Abrams’ second half and the law firm of (Josiah) Gray and (MacKenzie) Gore figuring some things out. Next, we await the arrival of top prospects Dylan Crews, James Wood and Brady House.

Total playoff years: 12DS, 14DS, 16DS, 17DS, 19WS

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Consecutive 90-loss seasons

7

Last decade: 16 points (MLB rank: 8th)

I ended last year’s blurb this way: Unless Luis Arraez bats .400, offense will likely be an issue again in 2023. He flirted with .400 until July! Offense was indeed an issue, one the Marlins addressed by adding Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the trade deadline. Losing Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara to Tommy John surgery was a massive blow softened by the performances of Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Braxton Garrett as the Marlins secured a wild-card spot. The Marlins have never won their division, and odds are against that changing in 2024, but they have enough intriguing talent to stay on the fringe of the playoff picture.

Total playoff years: 97WS, 03WS, 20DS, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

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5

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

Believers in positive regression will find no finer team to back than the 2024 Padres. The club’s late owner, Peter Seidler, spent big in his final years to bring a World Series to San Diego, and so cutting payroll was a priority this offseason. The team is now without one of the best hitters (Juan Soto), starters (Blake Snell) and closers (Josh Hader) in the game. The amount of talent they’ve lost is staggering, underscoring how strange it was to see them come up short in 2023. The lineup still has Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts locked in long-term and Ha-Seong Kim in the fold for another season. The rotation has Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, depth replenished in the Soto trade and now, after A.J. Preller’s Wednesday night blockbuster, another ace-caliber starter: Dylan Cease.

Total playoff years: 96DS, 98WSL, 05DS, 06DS, 20DS, 22CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

4

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Last decade: 2 points (MLB rank: t-24th)

The Tigers took a surprising second place in the AL Central last season, their best finish since 2016, though few confused them for a contender. They saw encouraging signs in 2023 from Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene (when healthy), Kerry Carpenter and several pitchers, especially Tarik Skubal. They’ve added a handful of veterans this offseason — Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Shelby Miller and Andrew Chafin — and have a couple top prospects approaching the majors. Better days should be ahead for an organization that hasn’t gained a franchise-ranking point (and, in fact, has lost two) since 2014.

Total playoff years: 06WSL, 11CS, 12WSL, 13CS, 14DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

7

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

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We begin the way we always do, with an updated win/loss record since the 2007 name change.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: 645-972 (.399)

Tampa Bay Rays: 1,366-1,125 (.548)

The 2023 Rays raced out to a record-setting start and still managed to win 99 games despite being without star shortstop Wander Franco and losing starters Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to elbow surgeries. They’ve continued team-building their way this winter — prioritizing young regulars and undervalued platoon players and relievers — and will, in all likelihood, be a handful for the rest of the AL East in 2024.

Total playoff years: 08WSL, 10DS, 11DS, 13DS, 19DS, 20WSL, 21DS, 22WC, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

9

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Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

When writing a year ago “it’s hard to argue the White Sox are better than they were in 2022, and their farm system is one of the weakest in baseball,” I somehow still fell woefully short of predicting their 2023 season. The White Sox self-destructed. They fired Ken Williams and Rick Hahn, lost 101 games and moved seven veterans at the trade deadline. The positive outcome is that the farm system no longer stinks. Law ranked them 10th and noted, “This is about as good as their system has ever looked.” The same cannot be said of their major-league roster. The White Sox have had consecutive 90-loss seasons only once since 1995; they’re projected to add a second this season. They are playing for the future, as evidenced by the Dylan Cease trade Wednesday night.

Total playoff years: 00DS, 05WS, 08DS, 20WC, 21DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 3 points (MLB rank: t-22nd)

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The Mets haven’t advanced in the playoffs since their pennant-winning 2015 season. After the Mets won 101 games in 2022, the 2023 season saw Edwin Díaz injured, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer traded, and the Mets missing the playoffs by nine games. They still have the highest payroll in the game, but expectations are lower this season. Spring training started with a sour note as Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a right shoulder strain. FanGraphs gives the Braves a 98.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, the Phillies at 59 percent and the Marlins and Mets tied at 29.5 percent.

Total playoff years: 99CS, 00WSL, 06CS, 15WSL, 16WC, 22WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 9 points (MLB rank: 16th)

The Twins blew some long-standing narratives to smithereens last fall by ending their 18-game postseason losing streak and sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. Then they lost Sonny Gray to free agency, traded Jorge Polanco and cut payroll. They remain the favorite in the AL Central — a division they’ve won three of the past five years — but may be leaving the door open. The Pablo López-led rotation has upside; Jhoan Duran and the bullpen are nasty; and a lineup that starts with Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Max Kepler is likely to do some serious damage.

Total playoff years: 02CS, 03DS, 04DS, 06DS, 09DS, 10DS, 17WC, 19DS, 20WC, 23DS

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Consecutive 90-loss seasons

6

Last decade: 8 points (MLB rank: t-17th)

Before 2022, the A’s hadn’t endured a 100-loss season since 1979. Now they’ve done it two years in a row for the first time since 1964-65. They lost a rankings point for that, dropped one spot in the rankings and will surely continue in that downward direction. Law ranked their farm system last. In 2023, Brent Rooker had an early breakout, Ryan Noda and Zack Gelof emerged and Esteury Ruiz led the AL with 67 steals. But overshadowing all of that in Oakland is the team’s desire to flee to Las Vegas and fans’ attempts to make their objections heard.

Total playoff years: 00DS, 01DS, 02DS, 03DS, 06CS, 12DS, 13DS, 14WC, 18WC, 19WC, 20DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

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2

Last decade: 4 points (MLB rank: 21st)

Let’s break down the Wild-Card Era Angels by decade.

1995-99: 387-405 (.489)

2000s: 900-720 (.556)

2010s: 822-798 (.507)

2020s: 176-208 (.458)

Just as I suspected. The Angels are feeling rather fourth place-ish. They haven’t had a winning record since 2015 (their last “of Anaheim” season), haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, and haven’t won a playoff game since 2009. A 2023 recap: Arte Moreno didn’t sell the team, and GM Perry Minasian didn’t trade Shohei Ohtani before the season, didn’t trade him after the season, made a big bet as a trade deadline buyer and lost. Now the Angels trudge toward whatever is next. They have Mike Trout and Law’s 29th-ranked farm system, and no Ohtani.

Total playoff years: 02WS, 04DS, 05CS, 07DS, 08DS, 09CS, 14DS

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Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 3 points (MLB rank: t-22nd)

The Cubs hold the third tiebreaker (Championship Series appearances) over the Angels but were knocked out of the top 10 this year after being jumped by the Diamondbacks and Rangers. The Cubs ended the 2023 season one game back of a wild-card spot. The Chicago roster, though, hasn’t changed substantially since. They lost Marcus Stroman, brought back Cody Bellinger, traded for Michael Busch and signed Shota Imanaga and Héctor Neris. They also have the No. 5 farm system, per Law. The NL Central race should be compelling; FanGraphs projects all five teams between 77 and 84 wins.

Total playoff years: 98DS, 03CS, 07DS, 08DS, 15CS, 16WS, 17CS, 18WC, 20WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

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3

Last decade: 20 points (MLB rank: 4th)

Snakes alive. They climbed three spots in this year’s ranking. They also didn’t exist at the start of the Wild-Card Era, so if we look at their average points per season they rank 10th, ahead of the Phillies by 0.01. Indeed, here come the D-Backs. They may not have won the offseason like the division-rival Dodgers, but they have Corbin Carroll and Zac Gallen and enough talent surrounding them to make noise again in 2024. As for the new arrivals: Eduardo Rodríguez fortifies a rotation that could have used one more starter last fall, Eugenio Suárez gives Arizona more thump at third base, and Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk are mix-and-match platoon options at DH and in the outfield.

Total playoff years: 99DS, 01WS, 02DS, 07CS, 11DS, 17DS, 23WSL

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

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Last decade: 8 points (MLB rank: t-17th)

The Phillies in the past two years have played in a World Series and come one win short of appearing in another. After flailing for most of the 2010s, they’ve built a formidable core and so far have spent to keep it mostly intact. They let Rhys Hoskins walk in free agency this winter but brought back Aaron Nola and extended Zack Wheeler. This is more or less a run-it-back year for Philadelphia. They have the horses, and they have them healthy for now. But they’ll need to click from the jump if the Phillies are going to win their first division title since 2011.

Total playoff years: 07DS, 08WS, 09WSL, 10CS, 11DS, 22WSL, 23CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 7 points (MLB rank: t-19th)

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A World Series title doesn’t guarantee you a top-10 spot in the franchise rankings, but the nine points the Rangers bagged for winning their first ring last fall got them there. It was far from an ideal season for Texas. Jacob deGrom made only six starts before suffering an elbow injury. Nathan Eovaldi and Corey Seager both missed significant time in the regular season. The team fell out of first place and nearly lost their wild-card spot. But Seager, Adolis García, Josh Jung and Evan Carter led the Rangers lineup in October, and the pitching arms of Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery, José Leclerc and Josh Sborz did the rest. There are reasons to doubt the Rangers in 2024, but they’re about as good as they were last spring.

Total playoff years: 96DS, 98DS, 99DS, 10WSL, 11WSL, 12WC, 15DS, 16DS, 23WS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

The Guardians couldn’t give Tito Francona a storybook finish to his likely Hall of Fame career. They played .500 ball in the first half, were 10 games worse than that in the second half and finished third (or lower) in the AL Central for the first time since 2015. Their overall position on this list is incredibly respectable, especially since they’re the only one of the top 13 teams without a World Series title juicing their numbers. The Guardians have made the playoffs 13 times in the 29 years of the Wild-Card Era, won the division 11 times and captured three pennants. With José Ramírez, a young cast of hitters and a strong pitching staff, the Guardians have a shot at the AL Central crown this season.

Total playoff years: 95WSL, 96DS, 97WSL, 98CS, 99DS, 01DS, 07CS, 13WC, 16WSL, 17DS, 18DS, 20WC, 22DS

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Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 17 points (MLB rank: t-6th)

Three World Series titles will take you a long way, so the Giants are still sitting pretty here at No. 7 despite not seeing much playoff success since 2014. They backslid from 107 wins in 2021 to 81 in 2022 to 79 in 2023, leading to manager Gabe Kapler’s ouster. This offseason they signed Jordan Hicks, Jorge Soler and Jung Hoo Lee, traded for former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and waited out the market to land free agent Matt Chapman on a remarkably palatable three-year contract with two opt-outs. The Giants, however, still seem undermanned as they face an uphill climb in a division led by the Dodgers and the defending NL champs in Arizona.

Total playoff years: 97DS, 00DS, 02WSL, 03DS, 10WS, 12WS, 14WS, 16DS, 21DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

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1

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

Houston has reached the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons, played in four World Series and twice — including 2023 — fallen one win short. They are tied with the Dodgers for most points in the past decade; Houston holds the tiebreaker. They’d be in the top five in this year’s franchise rankings if not for the three points deducted for 90-loss seasons in the early 2010s. For now, they’re well clear of the Giants and Guardians and nipping at the heels of the Red Sox. In 2024, the Astros return almost the same lineup as last season, but with an offensive upgrade at catcher in Yainer Díaz. They’ll have Justin Verlander back in the rotation, once healthy. And they have two top-end closers in Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly.

Total playoff years: 97DS, 98DS, 99DS, 01DS, 04CS, 05WSL, 15DS, 17WS, 18CS, 19WSL, 20CS, 21WSL, 22WS, 23CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

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Last decade: 46 points (MLB rank: t-1st)

The long-term organizational momentum the Red Sox built with four World Series titles in the past 20 years has stalled. They’ve finished last in the AL East the past two seasons, with identical 78-84 records, and now they have a new chief baseball officer, Craig Breslow, but not a significantly upgraded roster. The Red Sox have strong left-handed hitters but could use some thunder from the right side at Fenway Park. With free-agent add Lucas Giolito out for the season, Boston needs another starter or two to lead the pitching staff alongside Brayan Bello. There’s still time to start spending, but the Red Sox so far have shown no urgency.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 98DS, 99CS, 03CS, 04WS, 05DS, 07WS, 08CS, 09DS, 13WS, 16DS, 17DS, 18WS, 21CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 19 points (MLB rank: 5th)

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This wasn’t necessarily the top headline of the Dodgers’ offseason, but they finally ran down the Red Sox and stole fourth place in the franchise rankings. They are a Death Star. The Dodgers have an 11-year playoff streak going, with 10 division titles in that stretch. If the franchise rankings covered only the past decade, the Dodgers would be tied with the Astros at No. 1. They’ve operated at a 102-win clip in manager Dave Roberts’ eight years in Los Angeles, and all of that was before they added [huge breath] Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton and Teoscar Hernández, and re-signed Clayton Kershaw, Jason Heyward and Kiké Hernández. Probably a team to watch in 2024.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 96DS, 04DS, 06DS, 08CS, 09CS, 13CS, 14DS, 15DS, 16CS, 17WSL, 18WSL, 19DS, 20WS, 21CS, 22DS, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 46 points (MLB rank: t-1st)

No movement in our top three for 2024, but a couple teams are in striking distance of the Cardinals this season. After three consecutive wild-card exits, St. Louis had a deeply disappointing 2023, finishing 71-91. It was their first losing season since 2007, and their first 90-loss season since 1990. The Cardinals overhauled their pitching staff this winter, bringing in veterans Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge. The talent in their lineup is still eye-popping, so with halfway decent pitching and positive regression from a few hitters the Cardinals could be back in 2024.

Total playoff years: 96CS, 00CS, 01DS, 02CS, 04WSL, 05CS, 06WS, 09DS, 11WS, 12CS, 13WSL, 14CS, 15DS, 19CS, 20WC, 21WC, 22WC

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Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 15 points (MLB rank: 9th)

The only one of our top three teams to reach the postseason in 2023, the Braves won the NL East for the sixth consecutive season before bowing out again in the NLDS. They’ve already won a World Series in this competitive window, but it feels like they’ve left a lot on the table. The good news for Braves fans, and bad for most others, is the team’s current core isn’t going anywhere. The Braves have built a behemoth without a top-five payroll, as reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II all have agreed to long-term extensions.

Total playoff years: 95WS, 96WSL, 97CS, 98CS, 99WSL, 00DS, 01CS, 02DS, 03DS, 04DS, 05DS, 10DS, 12WC, 13DS, 18DS, 19DS, 20CS, 21WS, 22DS, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

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2

Last decade: 24 points (MLB rank: 3rd)

The Yankees are still the class of the Wild-Card Era, though they certainly haven’t been baseball’s top franchise recently. The overall body of work is immensely impressive: In the 29 seasons included in this exercise, the Yankees have 24 playoff berths, 15 division titles, seven AL pennants and five World Series titles. (Only one title and pennant, however, in the past two decades.) In 2023, the Yankees narrowly avoided their first losing season since 1992, but their 80 losses still were their most of the Wild-Card Era. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and Carlos Rodón all missed significant time with injury. Gerrit Cole was the AL Cy Young and also the Yankees’ only reliable starter last season, but now there’s uncertainty regarding his health for 2024. The Yankees will have Judge, Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo across the outfield. They added Marcus Stroman to the rotation. We’ll see if that’s enough.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 96WS, 97DS, 98WS, 99WS, 00WS, 01WSL, 02DS, 03WSL, 04CS, 05DS, 06DS, 07DS, 09WS, 10CS, 11DS, 12CS, 15WC, 17CS, 18DS, 19CS, 20DS, 21WC, 22CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

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Last decade (since 2014): 17 points (MLB rank: t-6th)


Rank

  

Team

  

Total

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Average

  

Decade

  

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1

110

3.79

17

2

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81

2.79

24

3

72

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2.48

15

4

68

2.34

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46

5

66

2.28

19

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6

65

2.24

46

7

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48

1.66

14

8

48

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1.66

17

9

37

1.28

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14

10

33

1.14

7

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11

30

1.15

8

12

Advertisement

29

1

20

13

29

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1

3

14

25

0.86

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4

15

22

0.76

8

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16

21

0.72

9

17

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19

0.66

3

18

19

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0.73

14

19

17

0.59

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1

20

17

0.59

2

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21

16

0.55

1

22

Advertisement

14

0.48

16

23

14

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0.48

2

24

14

0.48

Advertisement

11

25

10

0.34

1

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26

10

0.34

10

27

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9

0.31

7

28

9

Advertisement

0.31

-2

29

7

0.24

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14

30

-4

-0.14

1

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(Top illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos by Justin Berl / Getty Images; Rob Tringali / Sportschrome; Matt Dirksen / Getty Images; Brian Blanco / Getty Images) 

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Culture

NFL Draft 2024 Round 1 grades: Falcons, Broncos get Cs for Penix, Nix; Bears earn two A's

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NFL Draft 2024 Round 1 grades: Falcons, Broncos get Cs for Penix, Nix; Bears earn two A's

Welcome to The Athletic’s pick-by-pick grades for Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft. We broke down every selection as the drama unfolded throughout Thursday night. Which teams found the prospect (or prospects) they needed? Who might regret their decision down the line?

Of course, we won’t have full, accurate answers to those questions for a few seasons, so our grades tried to take everything into account — pick value, trade costs, what the board looked like at the time of the selection and so on.

Here’s how everyone did:

(Note: Scott Dochterman provided grades for odd-numbered picks, Nick Baumgardner for even-numbered picks.)

NFL Draft 2024 tracker: Live blog, pick-by-pick grades and analysis
Big board best available: Who’s left from Dane Brugler’s Top 300?
Full draft order: Team picks for all 257 selections
“The Athletic Football Show”: Watch live reaction to the draft

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There was only one rational path for the Bears to take, and they took it. With the top pick and a shot at Williams in hand, the Bears practically gave away well-liked former first-rounder Justin Fields earlier this offseason. This selection is the right choice at the right time for a franchise that hasn’t had a starting Pro Bowl quarterback since Sid Luckman in 1942. In short order, Williams (6-foot-1, 214 pounds) could be just the third Pro Bowl QB overall for the Bears in the Super Bowl era.

The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner can lead in multiple ways and make every throw from any position, including on the run. He didn’t throw an interception on third or fourth down during his USC career and is seemingly in control in tight situations. He does need to work on fumbling issues (33 overall and 16 lost during his college career, counting his first season at Oklahoma).

Grade: A

GO DEEPER

NFL Draft 2024 ‘The Beast’ Guide: Dane Brugler’s scouting reports and player rankings

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It’s a new day in Washington D.C., now complete with a new QB. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, Daniels threw for 57 touchdowns to just seven picks in two years with the Tigers. He was one of the most improved players in the country during that stretch, too. An electric dual-threat passer with elite speed and short-area quicks in space, Daniels is unique and built for the modern game.

Some had Daniels a bit behind Drake Maye, though Daniels was worthy of a top-five choice this year. He has to be better against pressure and show he can throw inside the numbers, but he’s a serious playmaker who knows how to lead and brings with him a terrific work ethic.

Grade: A

The Patriots had options to trade down and perhaps stockpile talent at other positions, but their need at quarterback was greater. It’s a risk for New England, which couldn’t turn Mac Jones into a success, but it’s the right one.

When one looks at Maye (6-4, 223), they can see a carbon copy of the prototypical quarterback. There’s no question he has every tangible quality NFL personnel seek at the position, and his intangible gifts are obvious, as well. But his career trajectory will tilt upward if he can slow down a bit and make all of the plays. That’s going to require patience from the Patriots’ front office, coaches and players — and from Maye himself.

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Considering his potential, Maye may have the most upside of any quarterback in the draft. That’s worth betting on.

Grade: A

The Cardinals have more capital to work with in this draft than any other team, and GM Monti Ossenfort gets things started with a bang by adding a great new friend for Kyler Murray. Harrison is arguably the most complete receiver prospect we’ve seen in a decade, with no true holes in his game. His ability to adjust to off-target throws — deep and underneath — is unmatched in this class.

A trade down definitely could’ve made Arizona’s draft haul even greater, but the Cardinals needed a wide receiver. There’s nothing wrong with sticking and taking the best player at an area of need. Great pick, and possibly an elite one.

Grade: A

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Jim Harbaugh built Michigan into a national champion by fortifying its offensive line. He now will attempt to do the same with the Chargers. Harbaugh had plenty of opportunities to trade down, but starting his tenure with an elite left tackle was too much to discard.

After beginning his career as a tight end, Alt slid to left tackle midway through his freshman year at Notre Dame and never vacated the position, making 33 consecutive starts. He has the requisite arm length (34 1/4 inches), quickness (1.73-second 10-yard split), strength and natural ability to play left tackle for a decade-plus in the NFL. His father, John Alt, was a stalwart left tackle with the Kansas City Chiefs in the 1980s and 1990s.

Grade: A-minus

Nabers is an electric playmaker and arguably this class’ most dangerous ball carrier in space. An incredibly smooth and explosive athlete with great ball skills, Nabers was an instant contributor in the SEC for LSU and made 161 catches (playing with Jayden Daniels) the last two seasons. There were some scouts who had Nabers ranked ahead of Harrison — he’s that good.

The Giants have questions about Daniel Jones, to be sure. But they still have so much work to do that bringing a first-round QB in to compete for the job wouldn’t have made much sense. Nabers is an awesome talent and will instantly make one of the slowest offenses faster. This is a sensible, efficient and potentially explosive draft pick.

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Grade: A

Tennessee absolutely needed a tackle as part of its offensive line reconstruction, and Latham has the potential to become an anchor for a decade. But is this the right spot for him? He was a right tackle at Alabama, and the Titans have a glaring need at left tackle. If Latham can make that move, it’s perfect. If not, this becomes a question mark.

Perhaps the most powerful player in the draft, Latham caves in defenses when run blocking. He’s massive (6-5 1/2, 342) with an 85-inch wingspan and 35-inch arms. A second-team All-American last fall, Latham didn’t miss a game and made 27 consecutive starts at Alabama.

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Grade: B

And we’ve found our first stunner. Months after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal worth up to $180 million, the Falcons go quarterback —  and not J.J. McCarthy. Instead, it’s Penix, the nearly 24-year-old lefty. This is beyond interesting and, for Cousins, perhaps feels like a bit of deja vu from his days alongside Robert Griffin III.

Penix is a talented passer, to be sure. But there are questions here: his age, his health (he’s had multiple leg injuries), his consistency as an accurate passer and the fact Cousins is making a fortune. Penix doesn’t throw the ball over the middle with nearly the same confidence he shows outside the numbers. He’s going to have to figure out better answers versus pressure.

But his arm talent is outstanding, and it’s hard to bet against his perseverance. At No. 8, though? This feels a reach. Time will tell.

Grade: C

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9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

The Bears have remade their offense in two short years, and by selecting Odunze after getting Williams at No. 1, Chicago may have changed the trajectory of its franchise for perhaps the next decade. With Odunze, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore working with Williams, the Bears have a potentially explosive offense. (Yes, let that sink in.)

The FBS leader in receiving yards last year (1,640), Odunze (6-3, 212) has great size and length that eventually should lead to him playing X receiver. He’s fast and explosive (32 catches of 20-plus yards last year). With very good speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and a wide catch radius, Odunze can make big plays down the field in contested situations.

In most drafts, he’d be the top receiver chosen and among the favorites for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

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Grade: A-plus

What an offseason for the Vikings. After making a big pre-draft move, Minnesota was able to land a quarterback (and climb one spot) without surrendering its other first-round pick. (The Vikings sent Nos. 11, 129 and 157 to the Jets for this spot and No. 203.) All this mere months after Minnesota lost Cousins, its previous franchise QB.

McCarthy’s skill set has had NFL evaluators on alert for three years, though his work inside Michigan’s run-heavy offense made it very difficult to totally project what he’ll be immediately in the NFL. A very tough, aggressive passer in the mold of his former coach (Harbaugh), McCarthy’s an unquestioned winner (63-3 record since high school).

He may need to learn behind Sam Darnold for a minute, but this is a great long-term fit with Kevin O’Connell — and he could be more ready early on than some believe.

Grade: A

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11. New York Jets (from MIN): Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

In the debate between need and want, the Jets went with the latter, and in doing so laid a foundation for the future up front. Fashanu likely will get thrown in as a rookie and could become an anchor for the next decade. As tempting as tight end Brock Bowers had to be here, the Jets made the right move. Fashanu is a left tackle, and that’s important for the Jets’ future.

Massive and explosive, Fashanu was a force for the Penn State offensive line the last two seasons. He considered leaving for the NFL after the 2022 season but chose to return and became a consensus All-American, the Big Ten’s Offensive Lineman of the Year and a finalist for the Campbell Trophy (the “Academic Heisman”).

Grade: A

The 2024 quarterback thirst is very real. Make it six QBs gone in the top 12.

This one, somehow, didn’t feel as shocking as the Penix pick —  in part because that already happened. There’s a lot to like about Nix. In fact, the conversation surrounding the former Oregon passer is very similar to the one about Penix: He’s older and comes with physical limitations. Unlike Penix, though, Nix played in a very college-style offense at Oregon.

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But Sean Payton knows quarterbacks, and Denver can’t go anywhere without one. The fit here does work, as Nix’s quick release and poise should fit pretty well with Payton’s scheme. Still, as with the Penix pick, it sure feels like Denver could’ve gotten more value here. It’s a bold move, if nothing else.

Grade: C-plus

To justify this pick, you have to think of Bowers as a pass catcher, not strictly as a tight end. When you consider that his versatility will allow him to play alongside last year’s second-round tight end, Michael Mayer, then it could be a major coup. The Raiders will need to work heavily out of 12 personnel to make this fit. It’s a great value, but did Bowers fill a need?

That said, Bowers is a steal at this point. The first two-time Mackey Award winner as the nation’s top tight end, Bowers is a mismatch wherever he lines up — inline, slot, backfield or out wide. Few pass catchers find a way to get open like he does, and his 8.5 yards-after-catch average over his three seasons at Georgia is a rare number for his position. He was the best player on the field every time he stepped on it.

Grade: B-plus

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The rush on quarterbacks really helped out a lot of teams in the back half of Round 1. It helped the Saints here, in a big way. Fuaga was a top-two tackle on some NFL boards, top-three on several more. And there wasn’t a team in the league more in need of tackle help than the Saints, who just landed a road grader.

Fuaga (6-5, 324) was dominant at times on the Beavers’ right side last season, as arguably the best run blocker in the country. This is a culture pick as much as anything else, too — Fuaga will help improve the team’s overall toughness up front. Great value for the Saints in the middle of the first round.

Grade: A

It took 15 picks, but Indianapolis finally selected this draft’s first defensive player. And the Colts got a good one in Latu, who might have been the best defensive player in college football last season (13.0 sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss). Indianapolis, meanwhile, ranked 28th in scoring defense, 24th in run defense and allowed 22 rushing touchdowns.

Latu should help in every area, and he’ll also entere the NFL as one of its best stories. His NFL dream nearly was derailed by a neck injury in 2020, which caused him to miss two seasons and led him to medically retire while at Washington; he was cleared to play again after surgery, then transferred to UCLA in 2022.

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The only question is whether a cornerback might have been a more impactful pick, but Latu is a keeper.

Grade: B-plus

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Good things come to those who wait? Sure, we’ll go with that. The Seahawks have had a need right in the middle of their defense for what seems like several years now. And after early runs on quarterbacks and tackles pushed the top defenders down, Seattle hit a whopper by landing the top interior defensive lineman in this draft.

Murphy, who can play nose or three-tech, is extremely powerful and explosive with a lethal punch at the point of attack. A smaller body in the Aaron Donald mold, Murphy is all gas off the line of scrimmage, and his natural leverage makes him a bear to deal with inside. Some teams valued him as a top-10 prospect in this draft. This is terrific value for new Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald.

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Grade: A

17. Minnesota Vikings (from JAX): Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

After losing Danielle Hunter in free agency, the Vikings needed some pass-rush punch. So, Minnesota jumped up six spots (sending Nos. 23 and 167 plus third- and fourth-round picks in 2025 to Jacksonville) and grabbed perhaps the draft’s most athletic pass rusher. Turner was considered by many to be a possible top-10 pick. Edge was a need for the Vikings, too, probably equal to cornerback.

Turner (6-2, 247) was a consensus first-team All-American last season after posting 11.0 sacks, 15.5 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. He solidified his first-round status with an impressive combine (4.46 40-yard dash, 40 1/2-inch vertical, 34 3/8-inch arms). He should replace Hunter quite nicely.

Grade: A

Mims might be the freakiest athlete in the entire draft. The 6-7, 340-pounder has 36 1/8-inch arms, a near 87-inch wingspan and 11 1/4-inch hands. He’s simply a massive human. He also runs like a tight end and can deliver a punch that will decleat anybody. His ceiling is more or less out of this world.

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His floor, however? That’s another conversation. Mims started just eight games over three years at Georgia, missing six last year with an ankle injury. A right tackle only in college, Mims still makes a ton of youthful mistakes with his eyes and feet and will fall off blocks far too easily. However, with time in an NFL system and the right offensive line coach, he could develop into a true star.

Grade: B-plus

The Rams lost Aaron Donald, one of the greatest defensive linemen in NFL history, and needed to find some way to replace him. Verse likely won’t equal what Donald brought (nor would anyone else), but he was a nice choice for a team that hadn’t made a first-round pick since 2016. Chop Robinson might be more explosive with a higher upside, but Verse was more productive in college.

A workmanlike technician with a motor, Verse (6-4, 254) became an All-American after beginning his career at Albany as a no-star recruit. He played three seasons in the FCS (including one as a redshirt), then transferred to Florida State and posted back-to-back nine-sack seasons. Although he may not wow observers physically, Verse boasts one of this class’ top work ethics, which will serve him well in the NFL.

Grade: B

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One of the most versatile linemen in this draft, Fautanu is bit oddly shaped for his position — in a good way. At 6-3, 317, Fautanu plays low to the ground but also has great length (34 1/2-inch arms). A left tackle at Washington, Fautanu is athletic and a possible five-position prospect. The Steelers announced him as a tackle, but he also could play guard and maybe even center.

The Steelers need help in the middle of their offensive line, so it won’t be a shock if he gets a shot there. If that doesn’t work out, though, he could play opposite Broderick Jones or inside at guard. This is a great pick and an outstanding value.

Grade: A

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With both of its starting edge rushers (Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb) coming back from season-ending injuries, Miami needed reinforcements, even if just to rotate. The Dolphins picked up perhaps the best player available, and one with plenty of upside. They could have used an offensive lineman, but an earlier run at that position helped nudge them toward Robinson.

One of the most feared pass rushers in the Big Ten, Robinson commanded attention last year on Penn State’s elite defense. He picked up just four sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in 10 games, but he was regularly double teamed in passing situations. The 6-3, 254-pounder has elite get-off at the line of scrimmage, which was validated by his 4.48 40 at the combine.

Grade: B-plus

Many wondered if Philadelphia might move up to address its obvious need at corner. Instead, with six quarterbacks going in the top 12, the corners fell to the Eagles.

One of the humblest players in the draft, Mitchell turned down big NIL money offered by SEC schools to stay at Toledo and finish his degree. As a player, he’s big, long and extremely fast — Mitchell burned a 4.33 at the combine, posted a 38-inch vertical and a broad jump of 10 feet, 2 inches, and was downright dominant at the Senior Bowl. He improved every day at Toledo and wound up with a whopping 52 passes defended over three years.

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For Philadelphia, this couldn’t have gone better.

Grade: A

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After losing receiver Calvin Ridley in free agency, the Jaguars needed a replacement who could stretch the field and develop into a No. 1 option for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Thomas might cover both needs. He’s got tremendous athletic ability and is capable of catching double-digit touchdown passes as a rookie.

At LSU, playing alongside Nabers, Thomas (6-3, 209) was a third-team All-American and led the country in touchdown catches (17) last season, while posting 68 receptions for 1,177 yards (17.3 yards per catch). At the combine, he ran a 4.33 40, the second-fastest time among all receivers.

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Grade: A-minus

The hometown fans were concerned that the Lions might trade out of the first round. But as the corners started falling Thursday night, GM Brad Holmes couldn’t help but pick up the phone. Detroit moved up five spots (sending Nos. 29 and 73 to Dallas for No. 24 and a 2025 seventh-round pick) and filled a big need.

Like the Eagles, the Lions landed outstanding value in the 20s — Arnold and Mitchell were pretty clearly the top two corners in this draft. For Detroit, this was also a perfect fit for the team’s established culture. Arnold is a confident corner who plays with swagger, loves to work, loves tough coaching and loves to win. Arnold will reunite with former Alabama teammate Brian Branch in a new-look Detroit secondary. Another great value pick.

Grade: A

The Packers had needs both along their offensive line and in the secondary. They opted for Morgan rather than addressing that secondary, which intercepted a league-low seven passes last season. Morgan certainly is a first-round prospect, but Green Bay missed a chance to improve at its most vulnerable spot.

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Largely considered a guard, Morgan (6-5, 311) started 37 games over five seasons at Arizona. His arm length (32 7/8 inches) probably will keep him inside, but he could kick outside, if necessary. He should be able to start right away at right guard.

Grade: C

Up there with Fautanu among the most versatile linemen in this class, Barton gained college starting experience at both center and tackle. He’ll most likely get a shot inside with the Buccaneers, who announced him as a center (and are in need of a center) but also could use a boost at guard.

One of the most powerful linemen in the class, Barton doesn’t have ideal length to play outside in the NFL. His power and IQ (along with his feet) are more than enough to be terrific inside, though.. He’s probably an interior-only lineman in the NFL, but he has a chance to be very good for a long time.

Grade: A-minus

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27. Arizona Cardinals: Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri

The Cardinals ranked last in run defense, 31st in scoring defense and allowed 4.7 yards per carry last season. They needed a talent infusion along their defensive line, and Robinson should provide it, likely as a 3-4 defensive end.

The best word to describe Robinson is “massive.” With a frame that could lead him to an edge or interior role, Robinson (6-5, 285) has positional flexibility up and down the line. He also boasts an extraordinary wingspan (84 3/8 inches) and incredible hand size (10 5/8 inches). At Missouri, Robinson was productive (8.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss) and earned first-team All-SEC honors. He also was considered the leader on a team that beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, and he was voted the practice player of the week at the Senior Bowl.

Grade: A-minus

28. Kansas City Chiefs (from BUF): Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

Patrick Mahomes has yet to meet a player he can overthrow. We’ll see if Worthy gives him a run for his money.

The Chiefs moved up from the end of Round 1 — sending picks 32, 95 and 221 to Buffalo for Nos. 28, 133 and 248 — and snagged the fastest player in this draft. (Worthy set the combine record with a 4.21-second 40 earlier this spring.) This feels like a very good fit for Kansas City’s offense, and for Mahomes in particular, as Worthy is dynamic with the ball in his hands.

However, he’s also very small, at just 165 pounds. Whether or not he’ll be able to hold up with a high catch volume deep into a season is a fair question. Worthy can be inconsistent with his hands, too, and his play strength will limit some of what he can do a the next level. Was he a first-round prospect in this draft, especially with some of the talent still on the board? Maybe. But it’s tough to hate the fit.

Grade: B

Dallas had big holes at two spots, center and right tackle, and filled the one on the outside here. It’s an upside move, as Guyton could start at right tackle and perhaps flip to left tackle in time. If he reaches his potential, he could form a solid tandem with Tyler Smith.

Still raw and developing, Guyton started 14 games at Oklahoma — 13 at right tackle, one at left tackle — before declaring for the draft. He also started one game as a tight end at TCU in 2021. Guyton (6-7 1/2, 322) has the requisite body for an NFL tackle (34 1/8-inch arms). It might take him some time, but his upside is immense.

Grade: B

One of the fastest players on the board (4.28 40 at the combine), Wiggins is quick off the line of scrimmage and also possesses excellent second-level speed — a combination that makes him incredibly difficult to beat vertically. Wiggins’ length (6-1 with almost 31-inch arms) is also a plus. He got his hands on a combined 25 passes over the last two seasons at Clemson.

The question marks here are size and power. Wiggins weighed 173 pounds at the combine, before checking in at a reported 182 pounds at his pro day. He was mainly an outside-only corner in college, and it remains to be seen how much he can give the Ravens against the run. He’s a first-round talent in this draft, though, to be sure.

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Grade: A-minus

This feels like either a reach or an insurance policy, in case Brandon Aiyuk ends up getting dealt. Pearsall will make some tough catches and could wind up running plenty of interior routes alongside tight end George Kittle.

A five-year veteran who spent three seasons at Arizona State and two at Florida, Pearsall (6-1, 189) built a reputation for his toughness and ability to haul in difficult catches. Last year with the Gators, Pearsall caught 65 balls for 965 yards (14.8 yards per catch) and four scores. As a junior, Pearsall averaged 20.0 yards per catch (33-661) with five scores. He also ran a 4.41 40 at the combine and had a 42-inch vertical jump.

Grade: B-minus

The Panthers moved up one spot (picks 33 and 141 to Buffalo for Nos. 32 and 200) to snag help for QB Bryce Young.  A 6-1, 221-pounder with a 40-inch vertical, Legette is a powerful blend of speed (4.39 40) and explosion. He looks and runs a lot like Seattle star DK Metcalf.

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There are concerns, however. Before his breakout 2023 season (71 catches for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns), Legette had a combined 42 receptions over his previous four years. He’s also 23 years old and not yet a consistent route runner. But he is a credible deep threat who will provide help as a returner. Would Texas’ Adonai Mitchell or Georgia’s Ladd McConkey have been a better option here?

Grade: C-plus

(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; Photo of Michael Penix Jr.: CFP / Getty Images)

 

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Cousins stunned Falcons drafted Penix Jr. in first round

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Cousins stunned Falcons drafted Penix Jr. in first round

The Atlanta Falcons made a surprising selection taking former Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Among those shocked by the selection was their current projected starting quarterback, Kirk Cousins.

The Falcons called Cousins when they were on the clock to let him know they were taking Penix, his agent, Mike McCartney, told The Athletic. When Cousins signed with the team this offseason, the Falcons told him they would be drafting a quarterback in the later rounds of this draft. He was stunned when they took one in the first round, and Cousins’ biggest concern is that the pick doesn’t help the team for the upcoming season.

Part of the reason Atlanta selected Penix is that it believes it won’t have a top pick in coming drafts with Cousins under center the next few years, a team source told The Athletic.

The Falcons signed Cousins this offseason to a four-year deal worth $180 million, including $100 million guaranteed. The 35-year-old quarterback is recovering from the torn Achilles tendon he sustained in Week 8 last season. Cousins said at his introductory news conference in March that he could take drops and make passes, but if added, “I think the minute I would have to leave the pocket is where you’d say, ‘Yeah, he’s still recovering from an Achilles.’”

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Opinions varied on Penix

I didn’t think the Falcons would use the eighth pick for Penix, that’s for sure, but I do think Penix was a really interesting prospect in this draft.

Two former head coaches with strong track records were among the people I spoke with during the draft process who had Penix as their No. 2 quarterback in this draft, behind Caleb Williams. It seemed like very few people agreed with this assessment.

My feel during Super Bowl week was that Penix would be gone by the middle of the first round, but the recent chatter surrounding him made me feel like that was a stretch. With quarterbacks, there can be great volatility. If a team loves one, the team should take him. And when teams feel set at the position already, they simply do not select them most of the time. That is how someone like Penix can go earlier than expected while an Aaron Rodgers waits longer than expected.  — Mike Sando, National NFL writer

Required reading

(Photo: Jorge Lemus / NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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Concerns over fans' U.S. visa wait times for 2026 World Cup: 'Your window might already be closed'

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Concerns over fans' U.S. visa wait times for 2026 World Cup: 'Your window might already be closed'

Concerns have been raised with the United States government, including an official meeting in the White House, over fears supporters may be deterred from the 2026 men’s World Cup owing to excessive wait times to process visa applications to visit the country.

The tournament begins in 777 days and it will be at least another 18 months before many countries will be assured of qualification, yet the wait times for U.S. visa interviews in two Mexican cities are already in excess of 800 days, while it is 685 days in the Colombian capital of Bogota.

In a statement to The Athletic, the U.S. Department of State (which oversees international relations) insisted it is determined to reduce wait times but also encouraged supporters in affected countries to start applying for visas now, over two years out from the tournament and with the line-up still unknown.

The 2026 edition of world football’s governing body FIFA’s flagship tournament will include 48 nations for the first time and will be held in 16 cities in the U.S, Canada and Mexico.

It will also be the first World Cup without an overarching local organising committee, which means FIFA is tasked with pulling everything together, in conjunction with the many layers of stakeholders and bureaucracy across three nations and 16 host cities, each of which have differing levels of private and taxpayer support.

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The three host countries also have differing entry criteria for visitors, which has the potential to create visa confusion for fans seeking to follow their team deep into the tournament across multiple borders.

Several host cities, including the location for the final — New York/New Jersey — are also concerned about the wait times for visas, and the potential impact on income from tourism during the tournament, but the cities are currently allowing FIFA and the travel industry to lead the conversations with the government. Some of those who have spoken to The Athletic wished to remain anonymous, owing either to sensitivity around discussions or to protect working relationships.

Travis Murphy is the founder of Jetr Global Sports + Entertainment and a former American diplomat who also once ran international government affairs for the NBA.

“My concern is this could be a disaster (in 2026),” he said. “The concerns are absolutely there on the city level. The cities are thinking, ‘They are FIFA, so they must have it under control.’ But when you realise how FIFA worked in the past with previous hosts in Qatar and Russia, it doesn’t necessarily work in the United States.

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“We’re just a completely different animal in terms of how our government operates and how we communicate. And frankly, the emphasis that we place on soccer as a sport in our country.

“If this was the Super Bowl, the World Series or the NBA finals, we’d be having a different conversation. Soccer is not the biggest sport in our country. And I think that’s a fundamental lack of understanding by FIFA, perhaps just taking it for granted that it is the case everywhere in the world. But it’s not yet in the United States.”

In recent months, U.S. travel industry representatives and FIFA have raised concerns with the U.S. Department of State and the White House as the respective groups seek to organise how millions of tourists will enter the U.S. during the five-week tournament in June and July 2026. In January 2024, FIFA strengthened its staff in D.C. when it hired Alex Sopko, the former chief of staff for the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs at the White House, to be its new Director of Government Relations.

In a statement to The Athletic, a FIFA spokesperson said the organisation is working closely with U.S. Government in the planning and preparation for the World Cup, including regular discussions on critical topics such as immigration and visas, and adding it recognises “the urgency of these matters.”

The visa delays ahead of the World Cup were raised in a meeting at the White House on Wednesday, April 17, with senior administration officials in conversation with the United States Travel Association (U.S. Travel). 

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Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of U.S. Travel, was present in the meeting. He describes visa wait times as a “massive issue” but added: “We came away confident that the White House recognises the significance of the 2026 World Cup and will take concrete steps to streamline aspects of the travel experience for the more than eight million anticipated visitors.”

Freely available data on the website of the Department of Consular affairs details the lengthy wait times currently impacting visitor visas from markets that may be highly relevant during the World Cup, which begins in 778 days.

Forty-one countries, including much of Europe, Japan, South Korea and Australia, are part of a visa waiver programme — ESTA — to enter the United States, which means citizens of these countries can travel without obtaining a visa, so as long as their trip for tourism or business does not exceed 90 days.

However, many people, estimated by U.S. Travel to represent 45 per cent of those who visit the States, do require visas for entry. These documents, called a B1/B2 visa, also require in-person appointments at a U.S. Embassy or Consulate to take digital photographs and fingerprints, as well as an interview, in which the candidate must state their intention to return to their home countries and explain their reasons for visiting the United States.

Infantino

FIFA president Gianni Infantino announces the 2026 match schedule in February (Brennan Asplen/FIFA via Getty Images)

Wait times for a visa interview at a U.S. consulate in the Mexican cities of Mexico City and Guadalajara are currently 878 days and 820 days respectively, so an application made today may not be approved before the World Cup begins. In the Colombian capital of Bogota, the current wait time is 685 days, while Panama City is 477 days and Quito in Ecuador is 420.

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The 2026 World Cup is guaranteed to include the U.S, Mexico and Canada as hosts but five more nations may yet qualify from North and Central America, while up to seven may enter from the South American Football Confederation. Wait times are also dramatic in the Turkish city of Istanbul, where it takes 553 days for an appointment, as well as in Morocco, semi-finalists at the World Cup in 2022, where the wait time is 225 days.

In a statement to The Athletic, the state department said: “We encourage prospective FIFA World Cup visitors who will need U.S. visas to apply now – there is no requirement to have purchased event tickets, made hotel reservations, or reserved airline tickets to qualify for a visitor visa.”

Freeman attributes the current visa delays to the shutdown of consular offices during the coronavirus pandemic but also outlines long-standing issues.

“The U.S. is the world’s most desired nation to visit, but our market share is slipping and it’s in a large part due to long visa wait times,” he said. “If you are Colombian and want to come and bring your kids in 2026, your window might already be closed.”

A World Cup is further complicated because many supporters may wait until their nations have secured qualification to organise their trip. For the Americas, this will largely be in winter 2025 — the play-offs may be as late as March 2026 — while nations will only know the cities in which their teams will be competing following the draw, which is usually held eight months out from the tournament.

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During the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, visitors were able to expedite their entry into the country by applying for a Hayya card, effectively a fan pass for World Cup ticket holders that acted as a visa for the tournament. A repeat pass is not expected to be approved by the U.S, particularly at a time of global tensions both in the Middle East and following Russia’s invasion of and continued war against Ukraine.

Freeman warned: “The U.S. is not going to change its visa policies in the short term to frankly cater to FIFA. I think where you may see the U.S. adjust some of its approach is in cooperation with Mexico and Canada. So once teams have qualified within the tournament, how do we streamline their ability to cross borders and attend games in other markets later in the tournament? I believe that’s where there will be greater cooperation and some of those discussions are already taking place.”

The answer may simply be additional staff and investment, such as deploying more consular officers at embassies, a method which has helped significantly reduce wait times from Brazil and India over the past year. Congress set aside $50million for the U.S. State Department to “reduce passport backlogs and reduce visa wait times” in a bill signed into law by U.S. President Joe Biden in March but it was not specified how and where the money will be invested.

There is a precedent for visa issues causing delays at major international sporting events in the United States. Kenya’s Ferdinand Omanyala, who set the African 100metres record of 9.77 seconds in 2021, only received his visa documentation the day before the men’s 100 metres heats began at the World Athletics Championships in Eugene, Oregon in 2022.

After securing his visa in Kenya, he took a five-hour flight to Qatar, endured a six-hour layover, then a 14-hour flight to Seattle, another three-hour layover and last of all, a one-hour flight to Oregon. He landed at 4.15 pm and immediately went to the track, where the heats commenced at 6.50pm.

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Omanyala competes in the men’s 100m heats on July 15, 2022 (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

The sprinter said: “If you are hosting a championship, you need to waive (visa requirements) for athletes. It’s a lesson for the host country in the future, and the U.S. is hosting the Olympics in 2028 (in Los Angeles), so they need to learn from this and do better next time.”

Murphy added: “There were hundreds of athletes who were unable to travel. The World Athletics Championships was was a relatively small event compared to the magnitude of what we’re talking about with the 48-team World Cup and the millions and millions of people involved, in terms of what needs to happen.”

Playing rosters are usually only approved in the final months before a tournament, but the U.S. is expected to expedite processing to ensure players and support staff from federations are able to arrive in time for the World Cup.

The U.S. Department of State attributes the issues at World Athletics to the pressures felt by consular officers coming out of the pandemic and told The Athletic that wait times for “P-visas”, generally used by members of professional sports teams coming to participate in athletic competitions, are “low worldwide”.

Murphy said the National Security Council has established a working committee on the matter for the White House but caveated his optimism with a reminder that more instant priorities are Israel, Gaza and Ukraine. He said: “This is not a priority beyond the host cities, FIFA itself and the members of Congress who represent those host cities. But in terms of there being a broad approach that is all-encompassing and has a wide swath of support in Congress, there’s just nothing there. There’s no bills or initiatives in Congress that are focused on this.”

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He added: “The conversations that needed to have started a year plus ago are not at a point where they need to be. And when you’re talking about the U.S. Government, it is essentially at a state of standstill in terms of any major movement that needs to happen from now until November of this year (when there is a Presidential election).”

The Department of State insisted it is “committed to facilitating legitimate travel to the United States while maintaining high national security standards.”

Its statement continued: “We are pleased to be an active participant in a working group with FIFA and other stakeholders on plans for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The Bureau of Consular Affairs recognizes the importance of international inbound tourism, including for mega sporting events such as the FIFA World Cup, and is working tirelessly to facilitate secure travel to the United States. We have significantly reduced visa wait times over the past two years.”

One of the peculiarities of the U.S. political system is that there is no sports ministry to facilitate such discussions. In its absence, Murphy calls for a special envoy to be appointed, with the World Cup likely to be followed by the women’s edition in 2027 before the Olympics in LA in 2028.

He said: “There has to be somebody centralised to organise those conversations. That’s relatively easy to do. If it’s somebody that has the respect and attention of the cabinet agencies, they can have a conversation with Capitol Hill and that’s going to go a long way to getting things done.”

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(Top photo: Patrick Smith/FIFA via Getty Images)

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