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‘Bonkers’ Bond Trading May Be Sending a Grim Signal About the Economy

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‘Bonkers’ Bond Trading May Be Sending a Grim Signal About the Economy

Within the usually tame marketplace for authorities bonds, buyers have been left reeling from a number of the most chaotic buying and selling situations they’ve ever seen, entrenching considerations in regards to the broader economic system because the collapse of Silicon Valley Financial institution.

It’s the sort of buying and selling that makes the usually extra turbulent inventory market appear calm: Whereas the S&P 500 has edged greater within the two weeks because the federal authorities took management of SVB, components of the federal government bond market have been subjected to strikes not seen because the Eighties, when the economic system fell into recession after the Federal Reserve’s final main struggle towards inflation.

The wild buying and selling strikes on the coronary heart of the monetary system. U.S. authorities bonds, referred to as Treasuries, are the bedrock of worldwide markets. An increase or fall in Treasury yields, which transfer in the wrong way to their value, can ripple by means of to every thing from mortgages to firm borrowing — affecting trillions of {dollars}’ value of debt.

Often, yields on these bonds rise and fall in tiny increments measured in hundredths of a proportion level, or “foundation factors.” However up to now two weeks, the yield on two-year Treasury notes has constantly moved inside a variety of 0.3 to 0.7 proportion factors every day.

Which will nonetheless appear incremental, but it surely’s as a lot as 15 instances the typical over the previous decade.

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The biggest day-to-day transfer in yields this month, when the two-year yield on March 13 slid to three.98 p.c from 4.59 p.c, was the largest lurch decrease since 1982 — worse than something merchants witnessed within the 1987 “Black Monday” inventory market crash, the bursting of the tech bubble on the flip of the century or the 2008 monetary disaster.

“These are monster strikes for single days,” stated Sonal Desai, chief funding officer at Franklin Templeton Fastened Earnings. “It’s utterly bonkers.”

When merchants discuss gyrations in any market, they describe it as volatility. Loosely, that refers back to the measurement and pace of actions out there. Within the inventory market, one measure of volatility — the Vix Index, also referred to as Wall Avenue’s “worry gauge” — rose over the previous couple of weeks, however to not ranges that conveyed systemic panic. Its nonetheless nicely under the place it was in previous crises, like the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic or 2008. It’s not even at its highest stage up to now 12 months.

However within the Treasury market, an analogous volatility measure has hit ranges final seen on the finish of 2008, simply a few months after Lehman Brothers’ fall triggered financial pandemonium.

“What we now have gone by means of, I’ve by no means seen it earlier than,” stated George Goncalves, head of macro technique at MUFG Securities. “It was off the charts.”

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Even since that March 13 plunge, the yield on two-year notes has gyrated sharply greater and decrease. In a interval of tension over the state of the economic system, these swings stand out. Illustrated on a chart they resemble a sound wave that quieted after the final monetary disaster however is rising louder once more.

“The volatility is simply excessive,” stated Greg Peters, co-chief funding officer at PGIM Fastened Earnings. “How can one trust round investing, how does one put a stake within the floor and say they firmly consider one thing, when it’s simply so, so unstable?”

That additionally means that these swings gained’t finish quickly, particularly as buyers contemplate extra financial information and altering outlooks for every thing from the Fed’s plan for rates of interest as to whether the monetary system has stabilized or not.

“There’s simply a lot uncertainty,” Mr. Peters stated. “The volatility creates volatility.”

It’s not simply the turbulence that has rattled buyers however the sharp change in what it communicates in regards to the well being of the economic system.

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On March 7, simply three days earlier than Silicon Valley Financial institution collapsed, the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, spoke to Congress and opened the door to elevating rates of interest greater and quicker than beforehand thought, in response to hotter-than-expected inflation information. The 2-year yield rose above 5 p.c for the primary time since 2007 — an indication that buyers had been listening to Mr. Powell and pricing within the prospect of upper rates of interest.

However the collapse of the financial institution meant these bets shortly soured, crushing some buyers. On Thursday, the two-year yield stood at simply 3.83 p.c, and buyers have since positioned bets that the Fed will start slicing rates of interest this 12 months in a bid to assist the economic system — a forecast that implies “the mom of all recessions” is on the horizon, Ms. Desai stated.

She thinks that is an overreaction, not less than for now, she stated. She notes that inventory markets have remained resilient and that company bonds, which mirror the chance that firms might fall into bother, have but to set off alarm bells.

As a substitute, Ms. Desai stated, she thinks that buyers have grown to anticipate the Fed to come back to their rescue as quickly as monetary markets sputter.

“It feels rather more just like the market desperately needs to be thrown the lifeline within the type of rate of interest cuts,” she stated.

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Others learn the strikes otherwise, arguing that buyers ignore the extra dour sign from the Treasury market at their peril, and {that a} recession is the truth is on the way in which.

“We now have had this fantasy that we will increase charges and that it wouldn’t depart its imprint on markets and the economic system,” Mr. Goncalves stated. “Why are we in shock? I feel the injury is finished.”

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Eight arrested in multimillion-dollar retail theft operation, Los Angeles County sheriff officials say

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Eight arrested in multimillion-dollar retail theft operation, Los Angeles County sheriff officials say

Eight people were arrested on suspicion of organized retail theft after authorities discovered several million dollars’ worth of stolen medicines, cosmetics and other merchandise at multiple Los Angeles locations, sheriff officials said.

The retail goods were stolen by crews of organized shoplifters at stores in California, Arizona and Nevada, according to detectives. The stolen items were then taken to various locations in L.A. County where they were sold to various “fence” operations, officials said.

Authorities investigating retail theft refer to people who buy stolen goods and then resell them for a profit as “fences.”

The Sheriff’s Department said they had also recovered a stolen firearm and a large sum of cash, according to a release sent late Friday.

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The suspects, who were not named, are being held on $60,000 bail each.

Early Thursday morning, sheriff‘s detectives performed raids at a dozen locations in Los Angeles thought to be involved in the crime ring, according to KCAL CBS.

At a small South L.A. market, they found boxes of stolen Motrin, Theraflu and other goods stacked floor to ceiling, the report said. Store tags were still affixed to much of the merchandise. The location appeared to be where the goods were relabeled for sale, officials said.

Detectives said they worked with the help of stores, including CVS and Walmart, to track the illegal operation.

The stolen merchandise is often sold online, officials said, including on Amazon.

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The investigation is ongoing. Anyone with information should contact the Organized Retail Crimes Task Force at (562) 946-7270.

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Bob Bakish is ousted as CEO of Paramount Global as internal struggles explode into public view

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Bob Bakish is ousted as CEO of Paramount Global as internal struggles explode into public view

Paramount Global’s months-long internal struggles spilled into full view Monday as Chief Executive Bob Bakish was ousted and pressure mounted for the company’s directors to accept — or reject — a takeover bid by David Ellison’s Skydance Media.

Moments before the company announced its first-quarter earnings, Paramount issued a statement announcing Bakish’s departure. The company said three of its top entertainment executives would run the firm: Paramount Pictures CEO Brian Robbins; CBS CEO George Cheeks; and Showtime/MTV Entertainment Studios chief Chris McCarthy.

Bakish’s firing comes during a tumultuous period for the company as its traditional TV and movie studio businesses decline amid head winds for the media industry. Bakish also was at odds with controlling shareholder Shari Redstone, who is seeking an exit.

Redstone, who has presided over the steep decline of her family’s media heirloom, is in a bind. She doesn’t want the company built by her father, the late, ferocious mogul Sumner Redstone, carved up and sold for parts at auctions. Paramount includes the CBS television network, MTV, Nickelodeon, BET and the Paramount Pictures movie studio on Melrose Avenue.

But Paramount’s common shareholders are wary of the two-phased deal with Skydance because Redstone will get a premium for her family’s shares.

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Paramount is in the midst of a 30-day exclusive negotiating period with Ellison, a tech scion whose Skydance Media has teamed up with investment firms RedBird Capital and KKR to acquire Redstone’s National Amusements holding company. On Sunday, Skydance sweetened its offer by $1 billion, with money earmarked for Paramount’s B-class, or nonvoting, shareholders, according to three people familiar with the deal but not authorized to comment. National Amusements holds 77% of Paramount’s voting shares.

The exclusive negotiating period ends Friday. It is unclear whether Skydance and RedBird have given Paramount’s board a deadline to accept its revised offer. Skydance and its partners have been wrangling with Paramount’s independent board members over how much money will go to common shareholders, two knowledgeable people said. Skydance and its partners have pressed for more of the proceeds to pay down Paramount’s debt.

The company’s credit last month was downgraded to “junk” status by ratings agency S&P Global.

Bakish was opposed to the Skydance transaction, a stance that infuriated Redstone, who in 2016 handpicked Bakish to run the company, then known as Viacom. In recent weeks, senior company executives also raised questions about Bakish’s leadership and the strength of his long-range plan in their conversations with board members — a development that expedited Bakish’s departure from the company, the sources said.

Bakish was more open to another proposed deal, favored by smaller shareholders, with private equity firm Apollo Global Management, which has offered $26 billion, including the assumption of Paramount’s debt. Sony Pictures Entertainment has been negotiating with Apollo to join that effort. Most insiders expect that Apollo and Sony would break the company apart, a scenario that Redstone does not want to allow.

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Redstone, according to one person familiar with the matter, has also been frustrated with some of Bakish’s decisions, including not selling Showtime, the premium cable network that the company folded into its television networks and streaming effort. Bakish had dismissed a recent offer of $3 billion for the channel from investors, including former Showtime head David Nevins.

Paramount, meanwhile, has lost more than $2 billion on its streaming service, Paramount+.

“Paramount Global includes exceptional assets and we believe strongly in the future value creation potential of the Company,” Redstone said in a statement. “I have tremendous confidence in George, Chris and Brian. They have both the ability to develop and execute on a new strategic plan and to work together as true partners. I am extremely excited for what their combined leadership means for Paramount Global and for the opportunities that lie ahead.”

In addition, the company faces a crucial Wednesday deadline to strike a new deal with cable distribution giant Charter Communications, which runs the Spectrum TV service.

Paramount entered the Charter negotiations with a weak hand — its cable television channels have suffered from falling ratings amid consumers’ shift to streaming. Paramount relies heavily on the revenue it receives from Charter, Comcast, DirecTV and other distributors.

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“Paramount still has a popular network, an esteemed studio, and solid streaming services, but its business prospects look tenuous as it looks to sell,” EMarketer senior analyst Ross Benes wrote Monday in an emailed statement. “Arranging a new quixotic leadership structure may appease those looking for new blood. But the dramatic removal evokes a feeling of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.”

Less than two minutes after Paramount announced Bakish’s departure, the company reported its earnings results.

At the beginning of a call with analysts, company executives said they would not take questions after reporting their financial results. The call lasted slightly less than 10 minutes.

After Cheeks thanked Bakish for “his many years of leadership and steadfast support for all Paramount Global businesses, brands and people,” McCarthy tried to calm concerns about the new triumvirate leadership structure, saying that he, Cheeks and Robbins have worked together for years.

“It’s a true partnership,” McCarthy said. “We have a deep respect for one another, we’re going to lead and manage this company together.”

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He said the company’s long-term strategic plan would be focused around three pillars — making the most of the company’s popular content, strengthening its balance sheet and optimizing its streaming strategy.

Paramount reported $7.68 billion in revenue for the three-month period that ended March 31, up almost 6% compared with the same period a year earlier. Paramount reported a net loss of $554 million, but that was less than its loss of more than $1 billion from a year earlier.

The company’s streaming division saw increased revenue of nearly $1.88 billion, up 24% compared with a year earlier. The segment’s quarterly loss was $287 million.

The company’s TV media revenue was aided by CBS’ February broadcast of the Super Bowl, which drew a massive audience. Revenue for the television networks division totaled $5.23 billion, up 1% compared with a year earlier. Paramount’s film division revenue totaled $605 million, up almost 3% compared with a year earlier.

The media empire now known as Paramount Global was formed in 2019 from the merger of Viacom Inc. and CBS Corp. But the combination never convinced Wall Street of its promise. In the last year alone, Paramount Global’s stock has lost nearly half of its value.

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“While the mighty Viacom empire declined tremendously under Bakish, who profited handsomely personally, it isn’t clear that another appointed leader would have changed Paramount’s fortune,” Benes of EMarketer wrote in a note to investors. “With a mountain of debt and its primary assets, namely TV, continually losing value, the deep problems facing the company extend beyond any single executive.”

Bakish, who joined Viacom in 1997, was named CEO of Viacom in 2016, after the company’s stock had fallen 45% in two years due to falling ratings at some of its key networks, including Comedy Central and MTV, as well as struggles at its Paramount Pictures film studio.

After Redstone orchestrated the merger of Viacom with CBS, Bakish became CEO of the combined enterprise.

“The Board and I thank Bob for his many contributions over his long career, including in the formation of the combined company as well as his successful efforts to rebuild the great culture Paramount has long been known for,” Redstone said in her statement.

Paramount’s B-class stock rose 3% to $12.25 a share Monday before Bakish’s departure was officially announced. The shares continued to gain slightly in after-hours trading.

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Granderson: Here's one way to bring college costs back in line with reality

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Granderson: Here's one way to bring college costs back in line with reality

It took me by surprise when my son initially floated the idea of not going to college. His mother and I attended undergrad together. He was an infant on campus when I was in grad school. She went on to earn a PhD.

“What do you mean by ‘not go to college’?” I pretended to ask.

My tone said: “You’re going.” (He did.)

Opinion Columnist

LZ Granderson

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LZ Granderson writes about culture, politics, sports and navigating life in America.

The children of first-generation college graduates are not supposed to go backpacking across (insert destination here). They’re supposed to continue the climb — especially given that higher education was unattainable for so many for so long. The thought of not sending my son to college felt like regression for our family. In retrospect, our conversation said more about the future.

A 2023 study of nearly 6,000 human resources professionals and leaders in corporate America found only 22% required applicants to have a college degree.

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The labor shortage is one aspect of the conversation. The shift in academia’s place in society is more significant.

I’m sure that sounds like a good thing for young people joining the workforce. As an educator, my concern is what happens to a society if only the wealthy pursued higher education. Oh, that’s right: We did that already, back before there was a middle class … and paid vacations.

Though it must be said the lowering of hiring requirements isn’t the only threat to the college experience.

Academia has publicly mishandled the campus tensions and student protests that began after the Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, and that certainly hasn’t been good for academia either. Neither has canceling commencement speakers … or commencement itself. Add in the rising costs — up nearly 400% in 30 years compared with 1990 rates — and, well, the college bubble hasn’t quite burst, but it’s hemorrhaging.

Forgiving student loan debt — whether you agree with the idea or not — addresses the past.

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The future of colleges depends on the future of labor. If employers are making it easier to enter corporate America without a degree, then universities must adjust how much cash they try to extract from students and their families, because the return on investment will be falling.

College enrollment has already been declining for a decade, and it’s not because Americans have become less ambitious or less willing to invest in their children’s futures. It’s because of eroding confidence that a degree guarantees a higher quality of life.

Imagine that your high school senior is interested in going to college and wants to major in education or communication or the arts. The sticker price for tuition, even at a state school, is going to look pretty steep. If your child were headed toward a degree in engineering or business, that same tuition might feel like a better bet.

There’s no reason tuition rates couldn’t vary to reflect this reality. Colleges and universities should set tuition rates for classes based on the earning potential of the discipline studied.

If our groceries stores can figure out a way to charge us more for organic produce, then surely this great nation can devise a system to set college costs that accounts for future earnings.

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For example, according to the National Education Assn., the starting salary for a teacher in California is about $55,000, the fourth highest in the nation. For California residents, the cost to attend UCLA comes to almost $35,000 a year, without financial aid. That math just doesn’t work.

It’s easy to see why 20% of the nation’s teachers work a second job during the school year to make ends meet. Between 2020 and 2022, the nation lost about 300,000 educators, and we’re facing a teacher shortage. To address the issue, a number of states have loosened the teacher certification rules to make it easier to get more bodies in the classroom, which sounds … less than ideal.

Instead, why not lower the cost of credit hours for college students pursuing a degree in education? Wouldn’t parents feel more comfortable knowing the people in the classroom set out to teach and earned the credentials?

If colleges don’t find ways like this to lower costs for at least some students, higher education will become a relic. Just as cable cutting reshaped the economics of the TV industry, the trend of corporate America moving away from degree requirements is going to put pressure on universities to make some big changes.

There have already been tectonic shifts in a short period of time. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, colleges lost international students, who once propped up many institutions by paying higher rates than Americans.

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Attendance by Americans is forecast to plummet starting next year. Because of low birth rates and low rates of immigration, the U.S. has fewer young people in the classes graduating from high school after 2025.

And perhaps most importantly, our confidence in college is slipping. In 2015, when my son graduated from high school, Gallup found nearly 60% of Americans had a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in our higher education system. It was under 50% in 2018. It was under 40% last year.

No telling what that number is today.

Which is sad because there is still so much to value — beyond career choices — to a liberal arts education. Given how we live, college is one of the few places we have left in America where young people from different walks of life can meet. That’s important to the health of a nation as diverse — and segregated — as we are.

Colleges will naturally shrink because of demographics, and they can use this time to adjust their business models as well and charge fairer prices. We need young people to be able to replenish all career fields, and that includes art and music and education. It’s time to rethink the economic approach so they aren’t saddled with debt that those careers can’t repay.

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@LZGranderson

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