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President Xi in Paris, Met Gala in New York and a rate decision in London

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President Xi in Paris, Met Gala in New York and a rate decision in London

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This article is an on-site version of our The Week Ahead newsletter. Subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Sunday. Explore all of our newsletters here

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Get out your glad rags because it’s time for the rich and powerful to show off in front of the cameras. Yes, New York is hosting the annual Met Gala and the theme is Sleeping Beauties: Reawakening Fashion. Will Elon Musk turn up again looking like an awkward teenager in his white tie and tails? For more details, read the excellent Fashion Matters newsletter. FT subscribers can sign up here.

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China’s President Xi Jinping may well be hoping that a bit of French fashion chic will rub off on him as he arrives in Paris for the first of several European state visits this week. Monday will be the key meeting with both French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen. Xi will then travel to Serbia and Hungary.

This week’s newsworthy rate setters are the Bank of England and, to a lesser extent, the Reserve Bank of Australia. Neither is expected to move rates, but watch out for signals that cuts are coming soon. UK watchers will be looking out for the first stab at first-quarter GDP numbers on Friday, expected to confirm the general perception of an economy at best only able to produce sluggish growth. Elsewhere, China looks to trade and Germany to factory orders.

It’s a delayed start to the week for the financial markets in London, Tokyo and Seoul due to the May Day and Children’s Day public holidays, but still a fairly busy week for corporate news. Media is a strong theme for this week’s results, with Disney, Fox, Warner Bros Discovery and (big for the UK) ITV all reporting. Also, on Tuesday, BP reports first-quarter numbers, with analysts expecting strong growth in gas trading but weaker fuel margins. Will there be any more changes to the senior management team in the wake of the Bernard Looney scandal?

One more thing . . . 

This is a bumper week for British anniversaries. Monday not only marks a year since King Charles III was crowned at Westminster Abbey (and he now has a pretty scroll to prove it), but is the 30th anniversary of the Channel Tunnel’s formal opening and the 70th of Roger Bannister breaking the four-minute mile.

Before the week is out, it will also be another significant anniversary (at least to me): my birth. This will be celebrated by my finally getting to see Nye at London’s National Theatre (as endorsed by my employer) with supper at the (equally eagerly anticipated) theatre restaurant Lasdun. If you don’t believe me on that last point, read this persuasive review from the world’s most eloquent food critic (IMHO) Tim Hayward.

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How do you intend to spend the week ahead, and what are your priorities? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • China, EU, France, Germany, India: Caixin/HCOB/HSBC April services purchasing managers’ survey (PMI) data

  • Japan/South Korea: Children’s Day. Financial markets closed

  • UK/Ireland: May Day bank holiday. Financial markets closed

  • Results: BioNTech Q1, Tyson Foods Q2, Westpac HY

Tuesday

  • Apple hosts a product launch event called Let Loose with the usual secrecy around the device being unveiled, though many expect a new iPad tablet

  • Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision

  • Germany: March industrial orders and foreign trade figures

  • Japan: April services PMI data

  • UK: BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor and Halifax House Price index

  • Results: Adecco Q1, ANZ HY, Bouygues Q1, BP Q1, Deutsche Post Q1, Electronic Arts Q4, Geberit Q1, Heidelberg Materials Q1, IAC Q1, Infineon Technologies Q2, IWG Q1, Kenvue Q1, Lyft Q1, Nintendo FY, Reddit Q1, Ricoh FY, Saudi Aramco Q1, UBS Q1, UniCredit Q1, Walt Disney Co Q2

Wednesday

  • US Federal Reserve’s Exploring Careers in Economics event in Washington. Speakers include Fed board vice-chair Philip Jefferson

  • Brazil: Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) rate-setting decision announced

  • Germany: March industrial production

  • Results: Ahold Delhaize Q1, Airbnb Q1, Alliance Pharma FY, Alstom FY, Anheuser-Busch InBev Q1, Bertelsmann Q1, Boohoo FY, BMW Q1, Continental Q1, Fox Corp Q3, Henkel Q1, Itochu FY, Match Q1, OSB Q1 trading update, Puma Q1, Renishaw trading update, Skanska Q1, Toyota FY, Tripadvisor Q1, Uber Q1, Wetherspoon trading update

Thursday

  • China: April trade balance figures

  • Russia: Victory Day. Financial markets closed

  • UK: Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee rate-setting decision. Later, the bank will host a virtual Q&A with its chief economist Huw Pill on its latest Monetary Policy Report. Register here. Also, Rics Residential Market Survey and REC-KPMG Jobs Report

  • Results: 3i FY, Asahi Kasei FY, Balfour Beatty AGM trading update, Enel Q1, Ferrovial Q1, ITV Q1 trading update, Nikon FY, Nippon Steel FY, Nissan FY, Panasonic FY, Telefónica Q1, Warner Bros Discovery Q1, Wood Q1 trading update and AGM

Friday

  • Indonesia: Ascension of Jesus Christ holiday. Financial markets closed

  • Eurozone: European Central Bank publishes its last monetary policy meeting minutes

  • Japan: March trade balance figures

  • UK: preliminary Q1 GDP estimate

  • US: University of Michigan May consumer sentiment survey

  • Results: CRH Q1, Honda FY, KDDI FY, IAG Q1, Iveco Q1, Mazda FY, NTT FY, Tata Motors FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • Chad: presidential election first round, with a run-off vote on June 22 if required, the result of constitutional changes approved in a referendum last year

  • France: Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to Paris where he will meet French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen for a state visit

  • Israel: Holocaust Martyrs’ and Heroes’ Remembrance Day aka Yom HaShoah.

  • Panama: winner in the presidential election expected to be announced, after one of the most unusual campaigns since democracy was restored after a US invasion in 1989

  • UK: deadline for candidates to register in the Scottish National party’s leadership contest following the chaotic departure of Humza Yousaf

  • US: 108th annual Pulitzer Prize winners and nominated finalists announced online for prizes in journalism, drama, letters and music. Separately, the Costume Institute Benefit, aka the Met Gala, is held in New York. Here are what attendees wore last year to the fashion industry’s big night out

Tuesday

Wednesday

  • North Macedonia: parliamentary elections and presidential election run-off

  • UK: Prince Harry attends the Invictus Games 10th anniversary service at St Paul’s Cathedral in London

Thursday

  • EU: Europe Day, marking the 1960 declaration issued by Robert Schuman proposing a European continent united in solidarity

  • Russia: military parade in Red Square, Moscow, to mark the second world war victory day

  • UK: City of London Corporation’s Easter Banquet for the Diplomatic Corps, with a speech by foreign secretary Lord David Cameron

Friday

  • Iran: parliamentary election run-off

  • UK: Christopher Berry and Christopher Cash appear in court in London accused of spying for China

Saturday

  • Sweden: Eurovision Song Contest, hosted by last year’s winning nation

  • US: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stages a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey

Sunday

  • Lithuania: presidential election

  • Spain: Catalonia regional parliamentary elections

  • UK: Bafta TV Awards held at London’s Royal Festival Hall

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U.S. soldier charged with suspected Polymarket insider trading over Maduro raid

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U.S. soldier charged with suspected Polymarket insider trading over Maduro raid

Smoke rises from Port of La Guaira in Venezuela on Jan. 3, 2026 after U.S. forces seized the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

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Federal prosecutors on Thursday unsealed an indictment against a U.S. Army soldier, accusing him of using his insider knowledge of the clandestine military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January to reap more than $400,000 in profits on the popular prediction market site Polymarket.

The Justice Department says Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who was stationed at Fort Bragg, in North Carolina, was part of the team that planned and carried out the predawn raid in Caracas earlier this year that resulted in the apprehension of Maduro.

The Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed the actions against Van Dyke, the first time U.S. officials have leveled criminal charges against someone over prediction market wagers.

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According to the indictment, Van Dyke now faces counts of wire fraud, commodities fraud, misusing non-public government information and other charges.

Trading under numerous usernames including “Burdensome-Mix,” Van Dyke allegedly traded about $32,000 on the arrest of Maduro, resulting in profits exceeding $400,000.

“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York. “Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have a duty to protect them and our armed service members, and not to use that information for personal financial gain.”

Van Dyke’s defense lawyer is not yet publicly known. Polymarket did not return a request for comment.

The charges against Van Dyke come at a sensitive time for the prediction market industry, which has been growing exponentially, despite calls in Washington and among state leaders for the sites to be reined in.

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Van Dyke is the first to be charged in the U.S. for suspected Polymarket insider trading, but Israeli authorities in February arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military operations in Iran on Polymarket.

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Senate Adopts GOP Budget, Laying the Groundwork to Fund ICE and Reopen DHS

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Senate Adopts GOP Budget, Laying the Groundwork to Fund ICE and Reopen DHS

The Senate early Thursday morning adopted a Republican budget blueprint that would pave the way for a $70 billion increase for immigration enforcement and the eventual reopening of the Department of Homeland Security.

Republicans pushed through the plan on a nearly party-line vote of 50 to 48. It came after an overnight marathon of rapid-fire votes, known as a vote-a-rama, in which the G.O.P. beat back a series of Democratic proposals aimed at addressing the high cost of health care, housing, food and energy. The debate put the two parties’ dueling messages on vivid display six months before the midterm elections.

Republicans, who are using the budget plan to lay the groundwork to eventually push through a filibuster-proof bill providing a multiyear funding stream for President Trump’s immigration crackdown, used the all-night session to highlight their hard-line stance on border security, seeking to portray Democrats as unwilling to safeguard the country.

Democrats tried and failed to add a series of changes aimed at addressing cost-of-living issues, seizing the opportunity to hammer Republicans as out of touch with and unwilling to act on the concerns of everyday Americans.

Here’s what to know about the budget plan and the nocturnal ritual senators engaged in before adopting it.

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The budget blueprint is a crucial piece of Republicans’ plan to fund the Department of Homeland Security and end a shutdown that has lasted for more than two months. After Democrats refused to fund immigration enforcement without new restrictions on agents’ tactics and conduct, the G.O.P. struck a deal with them to pass a spending bill that would fund everything but ICE and the Border Patrol. Republicans said they would fund those agencies through a special budget bill that Democrats could not block.

“We can fix this with Republican votes, and we will,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and the Budget Committee chairman. “Every Democrat has opposed money for the Border Patrol and ICE at a time of great peril.”

In resorting to a new budget blueprint, Republicans laid the groundwork to deny Democrats a chance to stop the immigration enforcement funding. But they also submitted themselves to a vote-a-rama, in which any senator can propose unlimited changes to such a measure before it is adopted.

The budget measure now goes to the House, which must adopt it before lawmakers in both chambers can draft the legislation funding immigration enforcement. That bill will provide yet another opportunity for a vote-a-rama even closer to the November election.

Democrats took to the floor to criticize Republicans for supercharging funding for federal immigration enforcement rather than moving legislation that would address Americans’ concerns over affordability.

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“This is what Republicans are fighting for,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the Democratic leader. “To maintain two unchecked rogue agencies that are dreaded in all corners of this country instead of reducing your health care costs, your housing costs, your grocery costs, your gas costs.”

Democrats offered a host of amendments along those lines, all of which were defeated by Republicans — and that was the point. The proposals were meant to put the G.O.P. in a tough political spot, showcasing their opposition to helping Americans afford high living costs. Fewer than a handful of G.O.P. senators crossed party lines to support them.

The G.O.P. thwarted an effort by Mr. Schumer to require that the budget measure lower out-of-pocket health care costs for Americans. Two Republicans who are up for re-election this year, Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Dan Sullivan of Alaska, voted with Democrats, but the proposal was still defeated.

Republicans also squelched a move by Senator Ben Ray Lujan, Democrat of New Mexico, to create a fund that would lower grocery costs and reverse cuts to food aid programs that Republicans enacted last year. Ms. Collins and Mr. Sullivan again joined Democrats.

Also defeated by the G.O.P.: a proposal by Senator John Hickenlooper, Democrat of Colorado, to address rising consumer prices brought on by Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran; one by Senator Edward J. Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, to require the budget measure to address rising electricity prices, and another by Mr. Markey to create a fund to bring down housing costs.

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Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat who is up for re-election in Georgia, also sought to add language requiring the budget plan to address health insurance companies denying or delaying access to care, but that, too was blocked by Republicans.

While Republicans had fewer proposals for changes to their own budget plan, they also sought to offer measures that would underscore their aggressive stance on immigration enforcement and dare Democrats to vote against them.

Mr. Graham offered an amendment to allocate funds toward a deficit-neutral reserve fund relating to the apprehension and deportation of adult immigrants convicted of rape, murder, or sexual abuse of a minor after illegally entering the United States. It passed unanimously.

Senator Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, sought to bar Medicaid payments to Planned Parenthood, which provides abortion and other services, and criticized the organization for providing transgender care to minors. Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, also attempted to tack on the G.O.P. voter identification bill, known as the SAVE America Act. Both proposals were blocked when Democrats, joined by a few Republicans, voted to strike them as unrelated to the budget plan.

The Republicans who crossed party lines to oppose their own party’s proposals for new voting requirements were Ms. Collins along with Senators Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.

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Ms. Collins and Ms. Murkowski also opposed the effort to block payments to Planned Parenthood.

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Who is John Phelan, the US Navy Secretary fired by Pete Hegseth?

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Who is John Phelan, the US Navy Secretary fired by Pete Hegseth?

The firing of US Navy Secretary John Phelan is the latest in a shakeup of the American military during the war on Iran, now in its eighth week.

The Pentagon said Phelan would leave office immediately.

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“On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy,” said chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell. “We wish him well in his future endeavours”.

His firing comes at a critical moment, with US naval forces enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports and ships, and maintaining a heavy presence around the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas passes during peacetime.

Although the Pentagon gave no official reason for the dismissal, reports indicate the decision was linked to internal disputes, including tensions with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

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Phelan’s removal is part of a broader pattern of dismissals and restructuring within the US military under President Donald Trump’s administration – including during the current war.

So, who is John Phelan, and what impact could his firing have on US military strategy?

Who is John Phelan?

As the US Navy’s top civilian official, Phelan had various responsibilities, including overseeing recruiting, mobilising and organising, as well as construction and repair of ships and military equipment.

He was appointed in 2024 as a political ally of Trump, despite having no prior military or defence leadership experience.

Before entering government, Phelan was a businessman and investment executive, as well as a major Republican donor and fundraiser — a background that is fairly common among Trump appointees and advisers. The US president’s two top diplomatic negotiators, for instance, are Steve Witkoff — a real estate businessman with no prior diplomatic experience – and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

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According to the Reuters news agency, Phelan’s tenure quickly became controversial. He faced criticism for moving too slowly on shipbuilding reforms and for strained relationships with key Pentagon figures, including Hegseth and his deputy, Steve Feinberg.

rump with U.S. Marine Corps Lieutenant General Michael Borgschulte and Secretary of the Navy John Phelan (R) before the game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Army West Point Black Knights at M&T Bank Stadium [File: Tommy Gilligan/Imagn Images/Reuters]

In addition, Phelan was reportedly under an ethics investigation, which may have weakened his standing in the administration.

Navy Undersecretary Hung Cao, who was also reported to have a difficult relationship with Phelan, has become acting secretary. Fifty-four-year-old Cao is a 25-year Navy veteran who previously ran as a Republican candidate for the US Senate and House of Representatives in 2022 and 2024 respectively, but was unsuccessful on both occasions.

Democrats have criticised Phelan’s removal, calling it “troubling”.

“I am concerned it is yet another example of the instability and dysfunction that have come to define the Department of Defense under President Trump and Secretary Hegseth,” said Senator Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

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Who else has the Trump administration fired since the war with Iran began?

Phelan’s removal is the latest in a series of senior military leaders being fired or are leaving during the US-Israeli war on Iran, in addition to others since Trump was re-elected.

Among the most notable dismissals was Army Chief of Staff General Randy A. George, in the first week of April. George was appointed in 2023 under former US President Joe Biden.

According to reports, Hegseth also fired the head of the Army’s Transformation and Training Command, a unit concerned with modernising the army, and the Army’s chief of chaplains. The Pentagon has not confirmed their dismissal.

Why is Phelan’s dismissal significant?

The 62-year-old’s removal comes during a fragile ceasefire with Iran, as the ⁠⁠US continues to move more naval assets into the region.

The Navy is central to enforcing Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports to restrict Iran’s oil exports and apply economic pressure on Tehran, as the US president looks eager to wrap up the war, which is deeply unpopular to many Americans.

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However, there are no indications that Trump is willing to end the blockade or other naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, as negotiations between Washington and Tehran have come to a standstill.

Tensions have escalated in recent days after the US military seized an Iranian container ship. The US claimed it was attempting to sail from the Arabian Sea through the Strait of Hormuz to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.

Tehran responded by describing the attack and hijack as an act of “piracy”.

Iran has since captured two cargo ships and fired at another.

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