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Trump vs Biden: who is winning with six months to go?

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Trump vs Biden: who is winning with six months to go?

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Donald Trump has a small polling lead over Joe Biden in the critical swing states with six months to go before US voters elect their next president on November 5.

It marks a stunning reversal for Trump, who exited the White House in 2021 with a record-low approval rating of 29 per cent after a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6 in a bid to overturn his electoral loss.

More registered voters now view Biden’s presidency to be a failure compared with Trump’s, according to a recent CNN poll — 55 per cent of US respondents said Trump’s presidency was a success compared with 39 per cent for Biden.

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Biden’s approval rating has dropped by 19 percentage points since the start of his presidency, to 35 per cent in April, according to Pew Research.

Still, the 2024 election looks to be an exceptionally close rematch of the 2020 race, when just 43,000 votes out of 155mn cast delivered victory for Biden. 

With six months to go, here is where the race stands.

What are the polls saying right now?

National polling has been tight. Trump and Biden are both polling just above 40 per cent, with Trump currently holding a slender edge of 0.8 percentage points, well within bounds of statistical error, according to FiveThirtyEight’s averages. The independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr has been polling at about 10 per cent, though support for such candidates tends to be higher in pre-election polling than in actual elections.

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But US presidential elections are not decided by a national vote. Rather they are decided by winner-takes-all contests in the 50 states, which send electors to the Electoral College. Whichever candidate secures 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes president.

In seven crucial “swing states” — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump leads Biden by between one and six points.

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What are the issues that will decide the election — and who’s leading on them?

The top priority for US voters remains the economy — an issue that has boosted Trump against Biden. 

Overall, 41 per cent of voters trust Trump with the economy, compared with just 35 per cent for Biden, according to the latest Financial Times poll conducted with the University of Michigan Ross School of Business.

A recent CNN poll found that 65 per cent of registered voters called the economy “extremely” important to their vote — higher than any other issue — and near levels not seen since October 2008.

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While inflation has certainly hurt Biden, political views of the economy also play a role. Of those who said the economy was “poor”, 41 per cent said a change in political leadership in Washington would improve their perception of the economy, while 37 per cent said lower inflation and 14 per cent said better personal finances.

Other top issues include immigration — where polling suggests voters believe Trump is more competent than Biden — and protecting democracy, preserving abortion rights and lowering healthcare costs. Biden is stronger on the last three.

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Most Americans do not vote based on foreign policy. But voters have consistently said they think the US is spending too much on military and financial aid to Ukraine and Israel, according to monthly FT-Michigan Ross polling. This could help Trump.

Though Trump has not said that he will cut funding for either country, the former president has made clear that he expects other countries in Europe to step up their defence spending when it comes to countering Russia. Republicans have also stalled congressional efforts to approve aid to the two countries — only relenting in mid-April after months of deadlock.

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Perhaps even more important than the issues is how voters view Biden and Trump as people. 

A majority of voters say Trump, 77, is more physically and mentally fit than Biden, 81, but are less confident that Trump will act ethically in office. According to an April poll by Pew Research, 62 per cent of registered voters said they were not confident Biden is mentally up to the job, compared with 59 per cent who said they were not confident that Trump would act ethically.

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Trump is facing four criminal indictments, including federal and state charges that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election. A majority of independent Americans believe Trump is guilty in the four cases, according to a Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll. And 24 per cent of registered voters who support Trump say that if the former president is convicted, they might reconsider, according to a CNN poll.

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Who’s got more money and where is it being spent?

Biden has massively outraised Trump in the money race, leaving Biden groups with $66mn more on hand than Trump groups by the end of March.

Trump’s coffers have been drained by his legal fees. His donors have paid $76mn on Trump’s lawyers since January 2023 — 26 per cent of the total raised for the ex-president.

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Biden’s campaign has already spent more than $39mn on ads this year, according to AdImpact, compared with $25mn for Trump. But much of Trump’s ad spend went towards the presidential primary, as he fought off well-funded Republican challengers, including Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

Future Forward Pac, a pro-Biden super Pac that can raise unlimited sums, has already booked $130mn in ads beginning in September, targeting the seven swing states and Nebraska’s one electoral vote in Omaha.

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What the Supreme Court did on the final day of its term

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What the Supreme Court did on the final day of its term

The U.S. Supreme Court

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The Supreme Court Tuesday upheld the long-established right of children born on U.S. soil to automatic American citizenship, regardless of their parents’ immigration status. In so doing, the court rejected President Trump’s most aggressive attempt to limit immigration in the United States.

Writing for the court majority, Chief Justice John Roberts traced birthright citizenship back to the founding of the nation. Just as the colonists demanded “the rights of Englishmen” more than 250 years ago, he said, Congress, after the Civil War, amended the Constitution to specify automatic citizenship for any child born on U.S. soil.

“Citizenship then and now was the right to have rights”—and the framers of the 14th amendment extended that promise to every free born person in this land. He concluded: “We keep that promise today.”

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The vote was 6-to-3, depending on how you count it. Altogether, five justices signed on to the Roberts’ majority opinion. A sixth, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, agreed only that federal legislation enacted in the 1950s grants automatic citizenship for children born in the U.S.

Justice Clarence Thomas wrote the lead dissent, a 91-page opus that agreed with Trump’s assertion that the 14th amendment only applied to former slaves and their descendants. The Thomas dissent added ominously that he “was not sure that “today’s opinion will stand the test of time.” The dissent was joined by Justice Neil Gorsuch, with Justice Samuel Alito writing a separate dissent.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who, like Thomas is African American, responded to some of the themes in the Thomas dissent.

“Despite his longstanding endorsement of a colorblind society,” she wrote, “Justice Thomas now surprisingly suggests that the citizenship clause was a race-conscious remedial measure relating only to freed slaves.”

Cecillia Wang, legal director of the ACLU, who successfully argued the case at the Supreme Court, said President’s Trump failed attempt to limit birthright citizenship was transparent.

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Rep. Tom Kean returns to Congress, says depression is why he went missing for months

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Rep. Tom Kean returns to Congress, says depression is why he went missing for months

Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., R-N.J., arrives at the U.S. Capitol with his wife Rhonda Kean on June 30.

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New Jersey Republican Thomas Kean Jr. said it was struggles with depression that kept him away from Congress for nearly four months with no explanation to his constituents.

Kean last voted on March 5th, missing numerous votes and other appearances on Capitol Hill since. In April, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters he had spoken to Kean and that he was dealing with an undisclosed medical issue. Kean was not spotted until recently at his New Jersey home.

Speaking from the House floor on Tuesday, the second term lawmaker said he had checked into a hospital for testing several months ago after health concerns, and was subsequently diagnosed with depression.

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“Talking about myself has never come naturally,” Kean said. “But I believe that I owe an explanation to the people of New Jersey’s seventh district, to my colleagues in this chamber and to the American people for my absence.”

Kean said he originally did not think his diagnosis would result in a long-term absence. Doctors recommended he remain in the hospital to address the illness, and it was his fastest route to recovery, he said.

“It is physical. It is emotional,” he said. “And until you experience it yourself, it is difficult to fully understand how powerful this illness could be.”

Kean said he miscalculated how long he would be away, estimating it would be a matter of weeks. However, he said like the roughly 48 million Americans who have battled the illness, he learned there is no timeline for recovery.

“I am grateful that I accepted help,” Kean said. “Today I stand before you healthier, stronger and excited to return to the work that I love.”

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Kean’s absence proved a struggle for House Republicans, who contend with a razor thin majority to pass party priorities. For weeks, Kean and his office declined to share additional details on why he was away, feeding rumors and speculation and raising interest in a member known for his privacy.

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Michigan governor threatens to pull troops from D.C. if used for Trump task force

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Michigan governor threatens to pull troops from D.C. if used for Trump task force

Members of the National Guard stand in front of a large image of U.S. President Donald Trump that hangs from the the Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice Building on May 18, 2026 in Washington, D.C.

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — In a strongly worded letter to the head of Michigan’s National Guard, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer reiterated troops from her state are only to be used for operations surrounding America 250 celebrations in Washington, D.C., and not for President Trump’s long-running — and controversial — joint task force to fight crime. She said that she would pull her troops from the city if that is not the case, in the letter obtained by NPR.

“Please take all necessary measures to ensure the Michigan National Guard is only supporting the narrow and limited America 250 Mission and is in no way supporting the D.C. Safe and Beautiful Mission,” wrote Gov. Whitmer, referencing the official name for the federal task force.

Trump deployed hundreds of troops to Washington, D.C., in August of 2025, in what experts said was a stunning departure from governing norms. He said he did so to address rampant crime, despite declining crime rates at the time. The number of troops in the city has increased over time to more than 4,800 from Washington, D.C. and almost two dozen states, which until recently were exclusively Republican-led.

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Michigan — which has 161 guard members currently in the city — is one of four Democratic-led states that sent members of their National Guard to D.C. in recent weeks, ahead of an influx of tourists for America 250 celebrations. North Carolina and Kentucky each sent one member of their guard, while Minnesota sent more than a hundred last week.

Kentucky confirmed to NPR Monday that it had recalled its one guard member over the weekend, after that member was “diverted to the task force by the federal government without the knowledge or consent of Gov. Beshear of the Kentucky Guard,” Scottie Ellis, a spokesperson for Gov. Beshear, wrote to NPR in an email.

When contacted by NPR, spokespeople for each respective Democratic governor’s office made it clear that their guard members were sent to help specifically with America 250, not for law enforcement purposes as part of the larger ongoing federal joint task force operation. All four states have been clear about their opposition to the Trump administration’s ongoing deployment of National Guard troops to D.C., filing an amicus brief in support of litigation challenging it as recently as May.

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