Finance
DeepSeek sell-off reminds investors of the biggest earnings story holding up the stock market
Monday’s swift sell-off in the markets serves as a reminder for not only what’s been the driving force of the bull market thus far, but also what investors have been expecting to come in 2025. It’s all about big tech earnings.
New developments from Chinese artificial intelligence DeepSeek sparked the rout as investor concerns over brewing competition in the AI space for Nvidia (NVDA) and other big tech names prompted pause in the US AI trade.
Nvidia stock dropped more than than 11%. Meanwhile fellow “Magnificent Seven” members Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL,GOOG), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) were all off 2% or more in early trading. Broadcom (AVGO), another large player in the AI space, was down more than 12%.
“When expectations are high, one skeptical headline can knock the market off its axis,” Ritholtz Wealth Management chief investment strategist Callie Cox wrote in a note on Monday. “That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.”
A slowdown in Big tech’s rapid earnings growth has been a risk to the market that strategists have been talking about for more than a year. With with index valuations near multi-decade highs and the 10 largest stocks comprising nearly 40% of the S&P 500, strategists have argued the rapid rally in stocks is increasingly on thin ice.
But unlike other risks like higher interest rates or sticky inflation, there hasn’t been a clear story for why the exceptional Big Tech earnings growth story would collapse. For now, this weekend’s DeepSeek AI model launch appears to be a tangible reason for investors to question whether the high earnings expectations will truly follow through.
In 2024, Magnificent Seven earnings outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 index by 30 percentage points, per research from Goldman Sachs. And while that margin is expected to slow in the year ahead, causing some to call for a broadening out of stock market returns, big tech earnings growth remains a key pillar of the bull market thesis.
The “Magnificent Seven” stocks are expected to grow earnings by 21.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the 9.7% earnings growth projected for the other 493 tech stocks. The year-over-year growth rate for the “Magnificent Seven” is expected to slow in the first quarter, before accelerating once more to year-over-year earnings growth of more than 24% in the third quarter.
As Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays, pointed out in his 2025 outlook, given the large earnings growth expected for Big Tech throughout the year, the group is “likely to remain as critical of an EPS growth driver for the S&P 500 as the group was [in 2024].”
Finance
When should kids start learning about money? Advice from local financial advisor
REDMOND, Wash. — When should kids start learning about money, and preparing for adult expenses like rent, car payments, and insurance?
It’s a question asked recently by an ARC Seattle viewer.
We took the question to Adam Powell, Financial Advisor at Private Advisory Group in Redmond. Powell talked with ARC Seattle co-anchor Steve McCarron to share insights on the right age to form money habits, common financial mistakes parents unknowingly pass down to their children, and practical tips to set kids up for long-term financial success.
Find more ARC Seattle stories on our YouTube page.
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Finance
Soft-saving era? Gen-Z embraces new financial trend that puts experiences over long-term planning
LOS ANGELES (KABC) — Many Gen-Zers are adopting a financial approach that prioritizes quality of life in the present, a trend that’s being called “soft saving.”
Bob Wheeler, a CPA, described the mindset as a shift in how young adults balance their current lifestyle with longterm planning.
“It’s really a financial approach of ‘I want to make sure I have a good quality of life, and I’m thinking about the future,’ but not as much as the present,” Wheeler said.
For many Gen Z consumers, that can mean spending more on experiences – like vacations or concerts – rather than saving for major purchases like a car or home.
Wheeler said the approach can offer emotional benefits.
“I think there are definitely benefits, I mean, less anxiety, feeling like life is what you want it to be, fulfillment, versus saving for later on,” he said.
Still, financial experts caution against ignoring longterm stability. Wheeler encouraged young workers to take advantage of employer-sponsored retirement plans.
“They’re not going to do the max. They’re going to do enough to make sure they’re getting the match from your employer, so maybe they’re doing 3% or 5%. Maybe they’re not maxing out their IRAs. Maybe they’re doing $2,500,” he said.
He also stressed the importance of building an emergency fund, typically enough to cover six months of expenses.
“I want people to enjoy their life now because tomorrow is not promised,” Wheeler said. “I also just really reiterate to them ‘and you need to have some money set aside because we don’t know.’”
But saving for a home may not be practical for everyone. In some places, renting can be cheaper, and tenants avoid maintenance costs.
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Finance
Local M&A advisory firm Matrix acquired by banking giant Citizens Financial – Richmond BizSense
Matri x Capital Markets Group is now a division of Citizens Financial Group. (Image Courtesy Citizens Financial Group)
Matrix Capital Markets Group is used to helping businesses line up mergers and acquisitions.
For its latest transaction, the Richmond-based M&A advisory and investment banking firm was itself the subject of the deal.
Matrix was acquired last week by Rhode Island-based banking giant Citizens Financial Group.
Matrix, along with its nearly three dozen employees, including 20 in Richmond, are now operating as a division of Citizens, within the $226 billion bank’s investment banking arm, Citizens JMP Securities.
Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. It involved an asset purchase that bought out Matrix’s 15 shareholders.
The deal ends Matrix’s 38-year run as an independent firm, a notable streak in an industry where consolidation of smaller firms into larger ones is common.
Matrix was founded in Richmond in 1988 by Scott Frayser and Jeff Moore and has since hit its stride by building a niche in handling deals for companies in the downstream energy and convenience retail sector.
The firm has been run in recent years by president Spencer Cavalier and Cedric Fortemps, co-head of the firm’s largest investment banking team.
Fortemps said Matrix began to search for a larger acquirer last year.
Cedric Fortemps
“The board decided to see if we could find a partner and a transaction that could build on what we’ve built thus far,” Fortemps said.
Matrix enlisted investment banking firm Houlihan Lokey to help in the search and negotiate on its behalf, along with the law firm Calfee as its legal advisor.
Fortemps said Citizen rose to the top of the pack of suitors in part due to JMP Securities’ track record of acquiring smaller firms like Matrix.
“They have acquired four other firms very similar to ours. Seeing the successes they had with those groups… the playbook is really to let the firms continue to operate the way they had,” Fortemps said.
Matrix’s Richmond office in the Gateway Plaza building downtown will continue to operate, as will its second office in Baltimore.
The Matrix brand will continue to be used for the time being but will eventually be phased out.
Fortemps said the firm’s success and particularly its growth in recent years has been fueled by its expertise in working deals for downstream energy clients – such as wholesale fuels distributors, propane and heating oil distributors – and convenience store and gas station chains.
Matrix’s rise in that sector began in 1997, when it hired Tom Kelso, who lived in Baltimore and owned a heating oil fuels distribution business. Kelso, who would eventually serve as the firm’s president prior to Cavalier, had a vision to launch an M&A firm for that industry.
“It took seven to eight years to grow it but eventually we were able to get a reputation of really high quality work and those successes on smaller transactions resulted in us being considered for larger deals,” Fortemps said.
Today, 21of the firm’s 26 investment bankers work on the team that handles deals for those industries. It controls about 40% market share for the M&A market for those sectors, Fortemps said.
The firm closes nearly two dozen transactions a year over the last five years and has closed 500 deals since its inception.
The typical value of its deals is more than $20 million, though the transactions it has closed over the last three years in the energy and convenience retail sectors have grown to $140 million per deal, Matrix said.
Its largest deal to date was closed last year, involving the $1.6 billion acquisition of convenience store chain Giant Eagle.
Matrix also works deals in other industries such as lubricants distribution, automotive after-market suppliers and car washes, as well as outdoor recreation and the marine industry.
After decades of representing buyers and sellers in M&A, Fortemps said the Citizens deal was a new experience for the Matrix team: being the target of the transaction, rather than the ones facilitating it.
“It certainly made me appreciate everything our clients have to go through on the other side of the table,” he said.
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