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DeepSeek sell-off reminds investors of the biggest earnings story holding up the stock market

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DeepSeek sell-off reminds investors of the biggest earnings story holding up the stock market

Monday’s swift sell-off in the markets serves as a reminder for not only what’s been the driving force of the bull market thus far, but also what investors have been expecting to come in 2025. It’s all about big tech earnings.

New developments from Chinese artificial intelligence DeepSeek sparked the rout as investor concerns over brewing competition in the AI space for Nvidia (NVDA) and other big tech names prompted pause in the US AI trade.

Nvidia stock dropped more than than 11%. Meanwhile fellow “Magnificent Seven” members Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL,GOOG), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) were all off 2% or more in early trading. Broadcom (AVGO), another large player in the AI space, was down more than 12%.

“When expectations are high, one skeptical headline can knock the market off its axis,” Ritholtz Wealth Management chief investment strategist Callie Cox wrote in a note on Monday. “That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.”

A slowdown in Big tech’s rapid earnings growth has been a risk to the market that strategists have been talking about for more than a year. With with index valuations near multi-decade highs and the 10 largest stocks comprising nearly 40% of the S&P 500, strategists have argued the rapid rally in stocks is increasingly on thin ice.

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But unlike other risks like higher interest rates or sticky inflation, there hasn’t been a clear story for why the exceptional Big Tech earnings growth story would collapse. For now, this weekend’s DeepSeek AI model launch appears to be a tangible reason for investors to question whether the high earnings expectations will truly follow through.

In 2024, Magnificent Seven earnings outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 index by 30 percentage points, per research from Goldman Sachs. And while that margin is expected to slow in the year ahead, causing some to call for a broadening out of stock market returns, big tech earnings growth remains a key pillar of the bull market thesis.

The “Magnificent Seven” stocks are expected to grow earnings by 21.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the 9.7% earnings growth projected for the other 493 tech stocks. The year-over-year growth rate for the “Magnificent Seven” is expected to slow in the first quarter, before accelerating once more to year-over-year earnings growth of more than 24% in the third quarter.

As Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays, pointed out in his 2025 outlook, given the large earnings growth expected for Big Tech throughout the year, the group is “likely to remain as critical of an EPS growth driver for the S&P 500 as the group was [in 2024].”

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Goldman Sachs Sets $1 Trillion M&A Record

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Goldman Sachs Sets  Trillion M&A Record

Breaking a six-month record, the investment banking giant capitalizes on a surging wave of global megadeals.

Goldman Sachs said it had advised on more than $1 trillion of announced global mergers and acquisitions so far this year, the fastest any investment bank has reached that milestone in a six-month period, citing data from capital markets data provider Dealogic.

The bank attributed the milestone to a string of marquee mandates, including serving as co-financial adviser to Dominion Energy on its roughly $67 billion sale to rival utility NextEra Energy, announced last month, along with other major transactions.

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Rise of the Megadeal

Goldman reported that its investment banking fees rose 48%, to $2.8 billion in the first quarter. It’s a reflection of the “K-shaped” M&A market, where megadeals are the dominant force, but deal volumes are declining, and mid-market activity is subdued. 

Data compiled by PwC revealed that the global M&A market is on track to reach $4 trillion in 2026, a 13% annual increase, with major sales estimated to account for 48% of deal value worldwide, a significant expansion from two years ago. 

“Goldman has been the global leader in M&A advisory fees for more than 90 consecutive quarters. The fact that it’s reaping benefits from a moment of megadeal activity simply proves the strength of its franchise,” said Mark Narron, senior director at Fitch Ratings. “However, advisory revenues are generally a small share of total revenues. In 2021, which was Goldman’s record year for advisory, advisory revenues contributed only 10% of total revenues.” 

Fitch says it’s difficult to forecast whether Goldman’s advisory revenues will continue to climb, given the cyclical nature of advisory fees and uneven regional M&A trends — with most deal activity still concentrated in the U.S.

Fitch expects M&A activity to be sensitive to market conditions, economic growth, geopolitical events, and interest rates. Global growth is estimated to decelerate to 2.8% this year, according to the latest OECD economic outlook report. Inflationary pressures are rising in advanced and emerging economies due to energy shocks from the Iran conflict. Prices in the G20 economies are expected to climb to 4% in 2026. In a “prolonged disruption” scenario, inflation could rise further, which may prompt hawkish interest rate responses from central banks.

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Peter Taberner is a contributing writer based in the U.K.

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Rodriguez fires campaign manager over finance filing issues – Civic Media

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Rodriguez fires campaign manager over finance filing issues – Civic Media

MADISON, Wis. (Civic Media) – Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, a Democratic candidate for governor, fired her campaign manager Sunday after discovering problems with campaign finance filings, her campaign said.

The campaign said the person was terminated effective immediately following an internal review that found “serious mismanagement and inaccuracies” in reports they prepared. Staff identified the issues late last week and alerted Rodriguez, who then moved to secure campaign accounts and remove the staffer.

The campaign said it plans to contact the Wisconsin Ethics Commission on Monday to correct the filings ahead of a key reporting deadline Wednesday.

Full statement below.

“The Sara Rodriguez for Wisconsin campaign has terminated its campaign manager, effective today, after discovering serious mismanagement and inaccuracies in campaign finance filings she prepared. An initial review found that the manager filed inaccurate and incomplete campaign finance reports. The campaign will be in contact with the Wisconsin Ethics Commission first thing Monday morning to ensure the inaccuracies are corrected. The moment Sara learned of these inaccuracies, she acted swiftly and decisively removed her. The campaign will continue to build support to win in August and beat Tom Tiffany in November.”

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Wedding budget: How to decide what to spend on your big day

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Wedding budget: How to decide what to spend on your big day

Weddings, and the amount they cost, can run the gamut from a small, DIY ceremony in the backyard to a massive bash that shuts down Madison Square Garden. Obviously, the latter may only be within reach for certain pop stars and their football-playing partners, but that still leaves a wide range for how much you and your soon-to-be spouse could potentially spend.

When making the determination, it is important to weigh two things: making your big day a special one and honoring your financial reality. Your wedding may mark the start of your next chapter, but your finances are what will largely shape your future as a married couple.

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