The most important college football games of the season are still to come, but there is a fair case to be made that Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl, which pits San Diego State against North Texas, is the most interesting contest of the entire campaign.

There may be no bigger stylistic contrast in college football than between the Mean Green and the Aztecs. It’s a classic battle between an unstoppable force and an immovable object.

What’s more is that both of these teams were among the most impressive in the Group of 5 this season, and narrowly missed out on being in the mix for the playoff bids that eventually went to Tulane and James Madison.

North Texas saw its dream come crashing down in the AAC Championship against the Green Wave, while San Diego State had its season derailed by an overtime loss to New Mexico in the final week of the campaign.

The odds make this game even more compelling, as the bookies are having a tough time separating these two teams. North Texas (11-2) is a 3.5-point favorite over San Diego State (9-3).

The tale of the tape for the New Mexico Bowl is an absolute beauty.

San Diego State vs. North Texas odds, prediction

Only four teams in college football allowed fewer points per game than San Diego State, which also ranked fifth overall in yards per play and first in FBS in yards allowed per pass attempt.

The Aztecs held seven different opponents (including Boise State and California) to single digits in 2025.

San Diego State’s offensive numbers are vanilla at best, but the Aztecs rarely needed to light up the scoreboard to get results. When your defense is allowing 12.6 points per game, you can afford to plod your way down the field.

And now for something completely different.

No team scored more points than North Texas this season. In fact, only one team (Texas Tech) came within 30 points of the Mean Green by season’s end.

North Texas averaged six touchdowns per game, scored 45-plus points in nine of its 13 contests and hit the 30-point mark in every game except for the AAC Championship against Tulane.

On paper, this sets up for a classic. Styles make fights, as they say.

But this is 2025, so there will be some homework to do before this tilt.

Betting on College Football?

Earlier this month, it was announced that North Texas head coach Eric Morris was hired to replace Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State. The rest of the Mean Green’s staff would be in place for the bowl game, so you’d think Morris’ departure wouldn’t be a huge deal, save for one thing: There’s a lot of noise that his quarterback, Drew Mestemaker, would be hitting the portal after the bowl game.

Mestemaker, a freshman who walked onto the team in 2024, led the nation with 4,129 passing yards and finished third with 31 touchdown passes. The AAC Offensive Player of the Year has been adamant that he won’t decide on transferring until after the bowl game.

We’ll take Mestemaker at his word, but it did seem peculiar that he and his teammates put forth their worst effort in their most recent game, which was when rumors about the quarterback’s intentions really started to percolate. It was already announced that his head coach was headed to Oklahoma State, and many pundits were beginning to connect the dots.

Against other defenses, North Texas could win despite a distracted performance from Mestemaker and the rest of the offense, but the Mean Green will not be able to get away with it against San Diego State.

I expect this game to be played on the Aztecs’ terms, and that should spell doom for North Texas and any punter looking to back the Mean Green on Saturday.

The Play: San Diego State moneyline (+145, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers just win bowl games.

Drake Lindsey connected on a 12-yard pass to Jalen Smith in overtime to give Minnesota a thrilling 20-17 win over New Mexico in the Rate Bowl at Chase Field on Dec. 26.

It is Minnesota’s ninth straight bowl victory. It is 7-0 in bowl games under coach P.J. Fleck.

New Mexico took a 17-14 lead in overtime after Luke Drzewiecki hit a 36-yard field goal, but Minnesota was able to top that with a 4-play, 25-yard drive, culminating with the Smith touchdown reception, his second of the game.

“It was a concept we ran all year,” Jalen Smith, who was named the Offensive Player of the Game, said. “The offensive line held up. It was just me doing the easy part.”

It was the third overtime game in Rate Bowl history.

The game didn’t feature a lot of scoring through the first three quarters, with Minnesota taking a 7-6 lead into halftime, getting its first-half touchdown on a 10-yard pass from Lindsey to Smith late in the second quarter.

It remained that way until the fourth quarter, when Minnesota extended its lead to 14-6 on a 5-yard run from Darius Taylor with 13:30 left in the fourth.

But New Mexico got back into the game just 12 seconds later on a 100-yard kickoff return from Damon Bankston, the longest in Rate Bowl history. Jack Layne tied the game with a pass to Keagan Johnson on the two-point conversion.

Minnesota DL Anthony Smith was the defensive player of the game after recording six tackles, four of which were for a loss, and two sacks.

“I wouldn’t want to be on any other team,” Smith said. “And that is why I am coming back for my fifth year. I love these guys.”

Lindsey went 18-for-28 for 147 yards, with two touchdown passes.

Jalen Smith had six catches for 64 yards, with two touchdown receptions.

Darius Taylor rushed the ball 24 times for 116 yards and a touchdown.

Fleck lauded the Rate Bowl after his team’s win.

“What an elite experience,” the Minnesota head coach said after the game. “There are a lot of bowls out there, but they know how to do it first class.”

Jack Layne finished the game 14-for 25 passing for New Mexico, with 88 yards passing and one pass intercepted.

Bankston rushed 10 times for 57 yards for the Lobos.

Minnesota had 252 total yards, while New Mexico had 204.

It was New Mexico’s first bowl appearance since 2016. The Lobos finished the year 9-4 under first-year coach Jason Eck.

“I thought we fought our tail off today,” Eck said. “We just came up a little bit short. I thought we particularly played well on defense … We were struggling to move the ball, it really didn’t end up hurting up because our defense did a great job.”

The Golden Gophers ended the year with an 8-5 record.

Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.

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Yonke’s prediction: Eck gets the better of Fleck in the Rate Bowl.

Bowl season ramps up in a big way Friday with a three-game slate, highlighted by a compelling Power Conference vs. Group of 5 clash in the Rate Bowl between the New Mexico Lobos and Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Jason Eck has emerged as a popular name on the coaching carousel for good reason, and he’ll look to notch his 10th win in his first season with the Lobos against a very beatable Big Ten opponent.

See why my New Mexico vs. Minnesota predictions and college football picks for the Rate Bowl on Friday, December 26 are backing the Lobos.

New Mexico vs Minnesota predictions for the Rate Bowl

Who will win the Rate Bowl?

New Mexico will pull off the upset.

The Lobos have the better metrics overall and seem to have made a home run hire with Jason Eck. Finding a 10th win would be a massive victory for this program, and the momentum is heading in the right direction for a team that won six games and probably should’ve featured in the Mountain West championship game if we lived in a just society.

New Mexico vs Minnesota best bet: New Mexico +2.5 (-110)

Much has been made about the fact that the Minnesota Golden Gophers are 6-0 in bowl games under PJ Fleck. That’s all well and good — and it is of importance whether or not a coach has a reason to motivate his team in the wild era of current bowl games — but it’s not the only handicapping factor.

What stands out most to me is that Minnesota wasn’t a very good football team in 2025.

They had a young quarterback, injured running backs, uninspiring wide receivers, a terrible offensive line, and a bad defense that allowed far too many crippling big plays. Even though they finished 7-5, the Gophers ranked outside the Top 90 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball and needed great fortune to go bowling. 

The Gophers were also dreadful away from Minneapolis, losing all five games by an average margin of 24.4 points. They weren’t even competitive. 

The New Mexico Lobos finished the season with six consecutive wins, building significant momentum in Year 1 of the Jason Eck era. He’s truly revitalized this program, and they’d love nothing better than to put an exclamation point on the season by toppling a very beatable Power Conference opponent.

Now that is motivation.

The Lobos have better metrics on both sides of the ball and are stout in the trenches (12th in stuff rate offensively, 19th defensively) — a necessary component when stepping up in competition. Give me the underdog.

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New Mexico vs Minnesota same-game parlay

Minnesota’s defense has been bad enough that New Mexico should have very realistic expectations of finding the end zone several times.

If the Lobos fail in that mission, it’d be a massive disappointment against a Gophers defense that ranks 116th in success rate and 106th in PFF’s overall defensive grade. 

On the other side of things, New Mexico is solid defensively, but not elite. The expectation is for Minnesota to feature star running back Darius Taylor in this matchup, and start Drake Lindsey will hope to build confidence heading into next season.

The Gophers cashed the Over in every game away from home this season, so here’s betting on another. 

New Mexico vs Minnesota SGP

• New Mexico +1.5
• Over 43.5 

New Mexico vs Minnesota game predictions

New Mexico vs Minnesota spread prediction

The Lobos will cover this spread, making it five times in their last six games that they’ve done so. Eck’s squad was an underdog in six games this season and covered the spread in four of those contests. Count them out at your own peril.

New Mexico vs Minnesota Over/Under prediction

This game will sneak over the total due to Minnesota’s overrated defense that frankly hasn’t done much of anything well this season. The Gophers have allowed at least 38 points in four of their five games away from Minneapolis, so you can’t trust them in the bowl game.

New Mexico vs Minnesota odds

• Spread: New Mexico +1.5 (-110) | Minnesota -1.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: New Mexico +110 | Minnesota -130
• Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)

New Mexico vs Minnesota trend to know

Minnesota is 0-5 ATS away from home. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico vs Minnesota.

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