World
State of the Union: How distant elections can affect Europe
In this edition of State of the Union, we focus on how elections in faraway places like Taiwan and the United States can affect Europe. We also take a look at the latest regarding support for Ukraine.
While the war in Ukraine approaches the two-year mark, there has been some sort of shadow-boxing this week over potential peace talks.
While in Davos, Ukrainian president Zelenskyy got the Swiss government to host a peace conference at some point in the future – without inviting Russia.
Then Moscow’s foreign minister Lavrov shot back saying that Ukraine would not decide when to begin any serious talks and that “the West” was not interested in negotiations anyway.
“The West” meanwhile seemed to get its act together as far as further military support is concerned.
Some EU countries committed to additional measures.
And the EU in general is now ready to approve its 50-billion-euro package soon with or without Hungary that has been blocking it for months.
“It’s very important to engage with all 27 member states of the European Union to get the 50 billion euro for four years up and running”, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Euronews in Davos.
“My personal priority is to have an agreement by 27. If this is not possible, we are prepared for an agreement by 26.”
There is a renewed sense of urgency, as aid for Ukraine from its biggest donor by far, the United States, is mired in political infighting in Washington.
And then there is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House next year, however speculative at this point, which could mean an end to US support for Ukraine altogether.
A nightmare for many in Europe – but a nightmare against which there is a great remedy, according to the Belgian EU presidency: just wake up!
“If 2024 brings us ‘America first’ again, it will be more than ever ‘Europe on its own’.”, Belgian prime minister Alexander De Croo said in a speech before the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
“We should as Europeans not fear that prospect. We should embrace it. We should embrace it by putting Europe on a more solid footing. Stronger, more sovereign, more self-reliant.”
True, Trump won the Iowa caucuses overwhelmingly this week, but it is still a long way to go to election day in November.
The U.S. presidential election is not the only one with major ramifications for Europe this year.
A week ago, the people of Taiwan elected a new president who basically refuses to cave before Beijing who considers the island a runaway province.
The European reaction to this democratic expression was rather muted – is Europe too fearful of negative reactions from Beijing?
Questions to Mareike Ohlberg, senior fellow at the Indo-Pacific Program of the German Marshall Fund and head of the Stockholm China Forum who joined Euronews from Berlin.
ADVERTISEMENTEuronews: So, the election in Taiwan was one of the most closely watched geopolitical events of the year. Yet, in the run-up of the vote, the European Union barely noticed it at all – is Taiwan a too hot a potato?
Ohlberg: There is, of course, still some reluctance and commenting on it to some degree. Presumably there is still some nervousness about offending China to some degree. So there is a little bit of a dance around some of that. But overall, people here are paying much more closely attention now than just a few years ago.
Euronews: The official EU position is: yes, to bilateral ties with Taiwan, but no political recognition or diplomatic recognition. That being said, do you see an opportunity for closer cooperation now that the election is over?
Ohlberg: I think what we can do is continue some of the corporation that’s already been taking place or some more close coordination we’ve had in the last couple of years. I mean, we’ve had some visits, primarily from Parliament’s delegations visiting Taiwan. That is one thing that has happened. And then we’ve also seen some careful, more careful ties at the ministerial level, where, for instance, ministers, went to Taiwan to talk to their Taiwanese counterparts. And I think it’s particularly these smaller cooperations establishing ties and making sure that Europe is invested in Taiwan, where I see the most benefit.
Euronews: EU parliamentary and government delegations made 28 visits to Taiwan last year, a new record – how do you interpret that interest?
ADVERTISEMENTOhlberg: Europe can’t really offer Taiwan that much in terms of security and concrete defense. I think Europe doesn’t have the capacity to do that. But one thing that Europe can do, is signal an interest in Taiwan and try to signal to the Chinese government that Europe has a vested interest in stability in the Taiwan Strait, and that Europe would be firmly opposed to any attempt to change the status quo through military means or through coercion.
Euronews: Hanging over all this is, of course, fear of retaliation from Beijing. Does the EU have the stomach to pick a fight with the Chinese Communists over even symbolic agreements with Taiwan?
Ohlberg: I if you’re alluding to bilateral trade agreements, I don’t really think that’s going to happen soon. There’s been a push for that, for instance, in the European Parliament. There is some reluctance on the Commission side, on various other sides. I don’t expect that to happen. But I do think there are other ways and other channels how ties with Taiwan, including trade ties, can be intensified. That may not have the same effect, but that are also helpful in this regard.
World
Trump threatens to bomb Iran unless they end nuclear weapons program and begin talks on new deal
JERUSALEM—President Donald Trump’s overtures via a letter to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to jump-start talks on dismantling Tehran’s illicit nuclear weapons program, were met with rejection by the theocratic state on Sunday, following Trump’s latest threat to the regime.
Trump told NBC on Saturday that “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” he said. “But there’s a chance that if they don’t make a deal, that I will do secondary tariffs on them like I did four years ago.”
Trump added the U.S. and officials from the Islamic Republic are “talking.”
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday “We don’t avoid talks; it’s the breach of promises that has caused issues for us so far,” according to the Associated Press. He added, “They must prove that they can build trust.” The White House did not immediately respond to Iran’s rejection of the talks, the AP reported.
Pezeshkian still noted that in Iran’s response to the letter that indirect negotiations with the Trump administration were still possible.
WALTZ TELLS IRAN TO GIVE UP NUCLEAR PROGRAM OR ‘THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES’
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the media during elections in Tehran, Iran, on May 10, 2024. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The apparent return of Iran’s regime to its standard playbook of opaque indirect talks between the U.S. and Tehran’s rulers raises questions about whether Trump would greenlight military strikes to eradicate Iran’s vast nuclear weapons program.
After Iran launched two massive missile and drone attacks on Israel last year, Trump could also aid the Jewish state in knocking out Iran’s nuclear weapons apparatus.
Indirect talks between the U.S. and the world’s worst state-sponsor of terrorism, according to Democratic and Republican administrations, have not compelled Iran to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital that the Iranians “do not want to provide President Trump with a casus belli to strike Iran’s nuclear program. There may be indirect and non-public responses through various intermediaries. I think some Iranian officials perceive a fissure among President Trump’s national security team on Iran. This explains Iran’s foreign minister’s comment in recent days that President Trump’s letter to the supreme leader poses challenges as well as opportunities.”
TRUMP VINDICATED AS EXPLOSIVE REPORT CONFIRMS IRAN SUPERVISES HOUTHI ‘POLITICAL AND MILITARY AFFAIRS’
Iran’s first functioning nuclear power plant in Bushehr, Iran, on April 28, 2024. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Brodsky said, “These Iranian officials seek to bypass experienced hands like President Trump’s national security advisor and secretary of state, who have been demanding the dismantlement of Iran’s entire nuclear program in keeping with President Trump’s long-standing and rightful position on this issue, and cultivate individuals around President Trump who do not have experience with Iran or are considered non-traditional conservatives who would be more receptive to their entrees.”
Trump promised that “bad things” would happen to Iran if the regime does not come to the table for nuclear negotiations. “My big preference is that we work it out with Iran, but if we don’t work it out, bad things are gonna happen to Iran,” he said on Friday.
Iran is enriching uranium to 60%, just shy of the 90% weapons-grade. Experts say it could have a nuclear weapon within weeks if it were to take the final steps to building one. Fox News Digital reported in late March that Iran’s regime has enriched enough uranium to manufacture six nuclear weapons, according to a U.N. atomic agency report.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian at U.N. headquarters in New York, Sept. 24, 2024. (Reuters/Caitlin Ochs)
Alireza Nader, an Iranian-American expert on Iran, told Fox News Digital, “Khamenei may be signaling that he’s not interested in negotiations, but his regime desperately needs economic relief. Otherwise, another popular uprising against him could start. Khamenei doesn’t have the cards.”
There is widespread discontent among Iranians against the rule of 85-year-old Khamenei.
TRUMP REINSTATES ‘MAXIMUM PRESSURE’ CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN
President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet at the White House, Feb. 4, 2025. (Reuters/Elizabeth Frantz)
Iran’s has upped the ante ever since Trump told FOX Business he sent a letter to Khamenei. Iran has disclosed video footage of its underground “missile city.”
Trump also told FOX Business, “I would rather negotiate a deal.”
He continued, “I’m not sure that everybody agrees with me, but we can make a deal that would be just as good as if you won militarily. But the time is happening now, the time is coming up.
“Something is going to happen one way or the other. I hope that Iran, and I’ve written them a letter, saying I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing for them.”
Brodsky said, “That means the Islamic Republic may dangle a JCPOA-like deal, with minor modifications from the previous 2015 agreement. Iranian media has been hyping such an arrangement.”
In 2018, Trump withdrew from the Obama-negotiated Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action deal because, he argued, that the agreement failed to ensure Iran would not build nuclear weapons and did not codify restrictions against Tehran’s missile program and sponsorship of Islamist terrorism.
IRAN’S LEADER WARNS US COULD RECEIVE ‘SEVERE SLAPS’ FOLLOWING TRUMP’S THREATS TO HOUTHIS
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies has analyzed where Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is located. (Image provided by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) )
Brodsky said, “These Iranian officials believe they can lure the Trump administration into this arrangement and then President Trump will wave a magic wand and bring the entire Republican Party along with Democrats to support the deal and make it more politically durable than the 2015 JCPOA. This is all despite President Trump’s consistent and strong record in rejecting the JCPOA framework. It reflects desperation in Tehran and a desire to buy time with another failed diplomatic gambit. But it’s important to have eyes wide open here as to the games the Iranians will (and are already) playing.”
While Trump’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified on Tuesday before the Senate Intelligence Committee that the intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003,” she did note that Iran increased its enriched uranium stockpile.
In sharp contrast to U.S. intelligence since 2003, Fox News Digital has previously reported that European intelligence agencies believe Iran is working toward testing an atomic weapon, and sought illicit technology for its nuclear weapons program.
Counter-proliferation experts, like the prominent physicist and nuclear specialist David Albright, have told Fox News that European intelligence institutions use an updated definition of construction of weapons of mass destruction to assess Iran’s progress in contrast to America’s alleged obsolete definition.
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Fox News Digital sent press queries to the U.S. State Department and the National Security Council.
Fox News Digital’s Morgan Phillips and the Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
Donald Trump hints at exploring paths to a third term as United States president despite constitutional limits.
US President Donald Trump has said he is “not joking” about seeking a third term in office, which is barred by the United States Constitution.
Speaking in a phone interview with NBC News on Sunday, Trump directly addressed speculation over a potential third term, saying, “No, I’m not joking. I’m not joking,” but added, “It is far too early to think about it.”
“There are methods which you could do it, as you know,” he said, without elaborating on potential legal or political avenues.
The US Constitution’s 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two four-year terms, whether consecutive or not.
The 22nd Amendment says that “no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice”.
Trump was asked in the NBC interview about a scenario where his running mate, Vice President JD Vance, could assume office before stepping aside to allow him to take over. Trump acknowledged the possibility, stating, “That’s one” approach.
“But there are others, too,” he added, without elaborating further.
‘We’re working on it’
Overturning the 22nd Amendment would require a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress and ratification by three-quarters of the 50 US states.
Trump, who began his second, non-consecutive term in January, has repeatedly alluded to extending his time in office.
Some of his allies have also floated the idea of keeping him in power beyond 2028, while Trump himself has occasionally teased about the possibility, often in ways that taunt his political opponents.
If he were to pursue another term in the 2028 election, Trump, who was the oldest president to be inaugurated in the US in January 2025, would then be 82 years old.
The precedent of a two-term limit dates back to 1796, when George Washington voluntarily stepped down after two terms.
This tradition remained largely unchallenged for more than 140 years until Franklin D Roosevelt won a third term in 1940 amid the Great Depression and World War II. Roosevelt died months into his fourth term in 1945, prompting Congress to formalise term limits with the 22nd Amendment in 1951.
Longtime Trump adviser Steve Bannon suggested in a March 19 interview with NewsNation that Trump may seek re-election in 2028.
“We’re working on it,” Bannon said, adding that his team was exploring ways to reinterpret the definition of term limits to facilitate a third term.
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