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State of the Union: How distant elections can affect Europe

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State of the Union: How distant elections can affect Europe

In this edition of State of the Union, we focus on how elections in faraway places like Taiwan and the United States can affect Europe. We also take a look at the latest regarding support for Ukraine.

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While the war in Ukraine approaches the two-year mark, there has been some sort of shadow-boxing this week over potential peace talks.

While in Davos, Ukrainian president Zelenskyy got the Swiss government to host a peace conference at some point in the future – without inviting Russia.

Then Moscow’s foreign minister Lavrov shot back saying that Ukraine would not decide when to begin any serious talks and that “the West” was not interested in negotiations anyway.

“The West” meanwhile seemed to get its act together as far as further military support is concerned.

Some EU countries committed to additional measures.

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And the EU in general is now ready to approve its 50-billion-euro package soon with or without Hungary that has been blocking it for months.

“It’s very important to engage with all 27 member states of the European Union to get the 50 billion euro for four years up and running”, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Euronews in Davos.

“My personal priority is to have an agreement by 27. If this is not possible, we are prepared for an agreement by 26.”

There is a renewed sense of urgency, as aid for Ukraine from its biggest donor by far, the United States, is mired in political infighting in Washington.

And then there is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House next year, however speculative at this point, which could mean an end to US support for Ukraine altogether.

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A nightmare for many in Europe – but a nightmare against which there is a great remedy, according to the Belgian EU presidency: just wake up!

“If 2024 brings us ‘America first’ again, it will be more than ever ‘Europe on its own’.”, Belgian prime minister Alexander De Croo said in a speech before the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

“We should as Europeans not fear that prospect. We should embrace it. We should embrace it by putting Europe on a more solid footing. Stronger, more sovereign, more self-reliant.”

True, Trump won the Iowa caucuses overwhelmingly this week, but it is still a long way to go to election day in November.

The U.S. presidential election is not the only one with major ramifications for Europe this year.

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A week ago, the people of Taiwan elected a new president who basically refuses to cave before Beijing who considers the island a runaway province.

The European reaction to this democratic expression was rather muted – is Europe too fearful of negative reactions from Beijing?

Questions to Mareike Ohlberg, senior fellow at the Indo-Pacific Program of the German Marshall Fund and head of the Stockholm China Forum who joined Euronews from Berlin.

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Euronews: So, the election in Taiwan was one of the most closely watched geopolitical events of the year. Yet, in the run-up of the vote, the European Union barely noticed it at all – is Taiwan a too hot a potato?

Ohlberg: There is, of course, still some reluctance and commenting on it to some degree. Presumably there is still some nervousness about offending China to some degree. So there is a little bit of a dance around some of that. But overall, people here are paying much more closely attention now than just a few years ago.

Euronews: The official EU position is: yes, to bilateral ties with Taiwan, but no political recognition or diplomatic recognition. That being said, do you see an opportunity for closer cooperation now that the election is over?

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Ohlberg: I think what we can do is continue some of the corporation that’s already been taking place or some more close coordination we’ve had in the last couple of years. I mean, we’ve had some visits, primarily from Parliament’s delegations visiting Taiwan. That is one thing that has happened. And then we’ve also seen some careful, more careful ties at the ministerial level, where, for instance, ministers, went to Taiwan to talk to their Taiwanese counterparts. And I think it’s particularly these smaller cooperations establishing ties and making sure that Europe is invested in Taiwan, where I see the most benefit.

Euronews: EU parliamentary and government delegations made 28 visits to Taiwan last year, a new record – how do you interpret that interest?

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Ohlberg: Europe can’t really offer Taiwan that much in terms of security and concrete defense. I think Europe doesn’t have the capacity to do that. But one thing that Europe can do, is signal an interest in Taiwan and try to signal to the Chinese government that Europe has a vested interest in stability in the Taiwan Strait, and that Europe would be firmly opposed to any attempt to change the status quo through military means or through coercion.

Euronews: Hanging over all this is, of course, fear of retaliation from Beijing. Does the EU have the stomach to pick a fight with the Chinese Communists over even symbolic agreements with Taiwan?

Ohlberg: I if you’re alluding to bilateral trade agreements, I don’t really think that’s going to happen soon. There’s been a push for that, for instance, in the European Parliament. There is some reluctance on the Commission side, on various other sides. I don’t expect that to happen. But I do think there are other ways and other channels how ties with Taiwan, including trade ties, can be intensified. That may not have the same effect, but that are also helpful in this regard.

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Earth bids farewell to its temporary 'mini moon' that is possibly a chunk of our actual moon

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Earth bids farewell to its temporary 'mini moon' that is possibly a chunk of our actual moon

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — Planet Earth is parting company with an asteroid that’s been tagging along as a “mini moon” for the past two months.

The harmless space rock will peel away on Monday, overcome by the stronger tug of the sun’s gravity. But it will zip closer for a quick visit in January.

NASA will use a radar antenna to observe the 33-foot (10-meter) asteroid then. That should deepen scientists’ understanding of the object known as 2024 PT5, quite possibly a boulder that was blasted off the moon by an impacting, crater-forming asteroid.

While not technically a moon — NASA stresses it was never captured by Earth’s gravity and fully in orbit — it’s “an interesting object” worthy of study.

The astrophysicist brothers who identified the asteroid’s “mini moon behavior,” Raul and Carlos de la Fuente Marcos of Complutense University of Madrid, have collaborated with telescopes in the Canary Islands for hundreds of observations so far.

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Currently more than 2 million miles (3.5 million kilometers) away, the object is too small and faint to see without a powerful telescope. It will pass as close as 1.1 million miles (1.8 million kilometers) of Earth in January, maintaining a safe distance before it zooms farther into the solar system while orbiting the sun, not to return until 2055. That’s almost five times farther than the moon.

First spotted in August, the asteroid began its semi jog around Earth in late September, after coming under the grips of Earth’s gravity and following a horseshoe-shaped path. By the time it returns next year, it will be moving too fast — more than double its speed from September — to hang around, said Raul de la Fuente Marcos.

NASA will track the asteroid for more than a week in January using the Goldstone solar system radar antenna in California’s Mojave Desert, part of the Deep Space Network.

Current data suggest that during its 2055 visit, the sun-circling asteroid will once again make a temporary and partial lap around Earth.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Israel confirms death of missing Abu Dhabi rabbi: 'Abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism’

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Israel confirms death of missing Abu Dhabi rabbi: 'Abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism’

Israeli officials on Sunday confirmed the death of an Abu Dhabi rabbi who had been missing since Thursday. 

“The UAE intelligence and security authorities have located the body of Zvi Kogan, who has been missing since Thursday, 21 November 2024,” the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on X. “The Israeli mission in Abu Dhabi has been in contact with the family from the start of the event and is continuing to assist it at this difficult time; his family in Israel has also been updated.” 

“The murder of Zvi Kogan, of blessed memory, is an abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism. The State of Israel will use all means and will deal with the criminals responsible for his death to the fullest extent of the law,” the statement added. 

RABBI FEARED KIDNAPPED, KILLED BY TERRORISTS AFTER GOING MISSING, PROMPTING INVESTIGATION

Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a Chabad emissary, had been missing since Thursday. (Chabad.org via X)

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Rabbi Zvi Kogan was an emissary of the Chabad Lubavitch movement, a prominent and highly observant branch of Hasidic Judaism based in Brooklyn’s Crown Heights neighborhood in New York City.

The 28-year-old was a resident of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates when he went missing Thursday. He is a citizen of both Moldova and Israel.

According to his LinkedIn, Kogan worked as a recruiter and was “passionate about volunteering and serving [his] community.”

Rabbi Zvi Kogan's grocery store

A man walks past Rimon Market, a Kosher grocery store managed by the late Rabbi Zvi Kogan, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024.  (AP Photo/Jon Gambrell)

‘CHEERLEADING FOR TERRORISM’: TWITCH STAR CALLED FOR NEW 9/11, DISMISSED HORROR OF OCT 7

The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office announced its investigation into the unusual disappearance on Saturday. At the time, the statement said the disappearance appeared to be related to “a terrorist incident” but did not elaborate.

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The United Arab Emirates’ Ministry of Interior had confirmed it was investigating Kogan’s disappearance, but described his citizenship solely as a “Moldovan national.” 

Jew praying in UAE

Rabbi Levi Duchman performs morning prayers on the roof of the Jewish Community Center of the UAE on March 22, 2021, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.  (Andrea DiCenzo/Getty Images)

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The Rimon Market, a Kosher grocery store that Kogan managed on Dubai’s busy Al Wasl Road, was shut Sunday, according to the Associated Press. It had been a target of anti-Israel protests. 

Kogan’s wife, Rivky, is a U.S. citizen who lived with him in the UAE. She is the niece of Rabbi Gavriel Holtzberg, who was killed in the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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‘Optical illusion’: Key takeaways from COP29

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‘Optical illusion’: Key takeaways from COP29

Rich countries have pledged to contribute $300bn a year by 2035 to help poorer nations combat the effects of climate change after two weeks of intense negotiations at the United Nations climate summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku.

While this marks a significant increase from the previous $100bn pledge, the deal has been sharply criticised by developing nations as woefully insufficient to address the scale of the climate crisis.

This year’s summit, hosted by the oil and gas-rich former Soviet republic, unfolded against the backdrop of a looming political shift in the United States as a climate-sceptic Donald Trump administration takes office in January. Faced with this uncertainty, many countries deemed the failure to secure a new financial agreement in Baku an unacceptable risk.

Here are the key takeaways from this year’s summit:

‘No real money on the table’: $300bn climate finance fund slammed

While a broader target of $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 was adopted, only $300bn annually was designated for grants and low-interest loans from developed nations to aid the developing world in transitioning to low-carbon economies and preparing for climate change effects.

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Under the deal, the majority of the funding is expected to come from private investment and alternative sources, such as proposed levies on fossil fuels and frequent flyers – which remain under discussion.

“The rich world staged a great escape in Baku,” said Mohamed Adow, the Kenyan director of Power Shift Africa, a think tank.

“With no real money on the table, and vague and unaccountable promises of funds to be mobilised, they are trying to shirk their climate finance obligations,” he added, explaining that “poor countries needed to see clear, grant-based, climate finance” which “was sorely lacking”.

The deal states that developed nations would be “taking the lead” in providing the $300bn – implying that others could join.

The US and the European Union want newly wealthy emerging economies like China – currently the world’s largest emitter – to chip in. But the deal only “encourages” emerging economies to make voluntary contributions.

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Failure to explicitly repeat the call for a transition away from fossil fuels

A call to “transition away” from coal, oil, and gas made during last year’s COP28 summit in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, was touted as groundbreaking – the first time that 200 countries, including top oil and gas producers like Saudi Arabia and the US, acknowledged the need to phase down fossil fuels. But the latest talks only referred to the Dubai deal, without explicitly repeating the call for a transition away from fossil fuels.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev referred to fossil fuel resources as a “gift from God” during his keynote opening speech.

New carbon credit trading rules approved

New rules allowing wealthy, high-emission countries to buy carbon-cutting “offsets” from developing nations were approved this week.

The initiative, known as Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, establishes frameworks for both direct country-to-country carbon trading and a UN-regulated marketplace.

Proponents believe this could channel vital investment into developing nations, where many carbon credits are generated through activities like reforestation, protecting carbon sinks, and transitioning to clean energy.

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However, critics warn that without strict safeguards, these systems could be exploited to greenwash climate targets, allowing leading polluters to delay meaningful emissions reductions. The unregulated carbon market has previously faced scandals, raising concerns about the effectiveness and integrity of these credits.

Disagreements within the developing world

The negotiations were also the scene of disagreements within the developing world.

The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) bloc had asked that it receive $220bn per year, while the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) wanted $39bn – demands that were opposed by other developing nations.

The figures did not appear in the final deal. Instead, it calls for tripling other public funds they receive by 2030.

The next COP, in Brazil in 2025, is expected to issue a report on how to boost climate finance for these countries.

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Who said what?

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailed the deal in Baku as marking “a new era for climate cooperation and finance”.

She said the $300bn agreement after marathon talks “will drive investments in the clean transition, bringing down emissions and building resilience to climate change”.

US President Joe Biden cast the agreement reached in Baku as a “historic outcome”, while EU climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra said it would be remembered as “the start of a new era for climate finance”.

But others fully disagreed. India, a vociferous critic of rich countries’ stance in climate negotiations, called it “a paltry sum”.

“This document is little more than an optical illusion,” India’s delegate Chandni Raina said.

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Sierra Leone’s Environment Minister Jiwoh Abdulai said the deal showed a “lack of goodwill” from rich countries to stand by the world’s poorest as they confront rising seas and harsher droughts. Nigeria’s envoy Nkiruka Maduekwe called it “an insult”.

Is the COP process in doubt?

Despite years of celebrated climate agreements, greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures continue to rise, with 2024 on track to be the hottest year recorded. The intensifying effects of extreme weather highlight the insufficient pace of action to avert a full-blown climate crisis.

The COP29 finance deal has drawn criticism as inadequate.

Adding to the unease, Trump’s presidential election victory loomed over the talks, with his pledges to withdraw the US from global climate efforts and appoint a climate sceptic as energy secretary further dampening optimism.

‘No longer fit for purpose’

The Kick the Big Polluters Out (KBPO) coalition of NGOs analysed accreditations at the summit, calculating that more than 1,700 people linked to fossil fuel interests attended.

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A group of leading climate activists and scientists, including former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, warned earlier this month that the COP process was “no longer fit for purpose”.

They urged smaller, more frequent meetings, strict criteria for host countries and rules to ensure companies showed clear climate commitments before being allowed to send lobbyists to the talks.

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