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• A decade after declaring its caliphate, ISIS no longer controls any land, has lost many leaders, and is mostly out of the news.
• The group continues to recruit members and conduct deadly attacks globally, including recent operations in Iran and Russia.
• ISIS sleeper cells in Syria and Iraq continue to attack government forces and U.S.-backed Syrian fighters.

A decade after the Islamic State militant group declared its caliphate in large parts of Iraq and Syria, the extremists no longer control any land, have lost many prominent leaders and are mostly out of the world news headlines.

Still, the group continues to recruit members and claim responsibility for deadly attacks around the world, including lethal operations in Iran and Russia earlier this year that left scores dead. Its sleeper cells in Syria and Iraq still carry out attacks against government forces in both countries as well as U.S.-backed Syrian fighters, at a time when Iraq’s government is negotiating with Washington over a possible withdrawal of U.S. troops.

The group that once attracted tens of thousands of fighters and supporters from around the world to come to Syria and Iraq, and at its peak ruled an area half the size of the United Kingdom was notorious for its brutality. It beheaded civilians, slaughtered 1,700 captured Iraqi soldiers in a short period, and enslaved and raped thousands of women from the Yazidi community, one of Iraq’s oldest religious minorities.

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“Daesh remains a threat to international security,” U.S. Army Maj. Gen. J.B. Vowell, the commanding general of Combined Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve, said in comments sent to The Associated Press. Daesh is the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group.

“We maintain our intensity and resolve to combat and destroy any remnants of groups that share Daesh ideology,” Vowell said.

In recent years, the group’s branches have gained strength around the world, mainly in Africa and Afghanistan, but its leadership is believed to be in Syria. The four leaders of the group who have been killed since 2019 were all hunted down in Syria.

In 2013, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, then the leader of the Islamic State in Iraq group, which was formed as an offshoot of al-Qaida, distanced himself from the al-Qaida global network and clashed with its branch in Syria, then known as the Nusra Front. The group renamed itself the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and launched a military campaign during which it captured large parts of Syria and Iraq.

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In early June 2014, the group captured the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest, as the Iraqi army collapsed. Later that month, it opened the border between areas it controlled in Syria and Iraq.

On June 29, 2014, al-Baghdadi appeared as a black-robed figure to deliver a sermon from the pulpit of Mosul’s Great Mosque of al-Nuri in which he declared a caliphate and urged Muslims around the world to swear allegiance to it and obey him as its leader. Since then, the group has identified itself as the Islamic State.

“Al-Baghdadi’s sermon — an extension of the extremist ideology of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi — continue to inspire ISIS members globally,” said retired U.S. Army officer Myles B. Caggins III, senior nonresident fellow at the New Lines Institute and former spokesman for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. He was referring to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al-Qaida’s leader in Iraq who was killed in a U.S. strike in 2006.

From the self-declared caliphate, the group planned deadly attacks around the world and carried out brutal killings, including the beheading of Western journalists, setting a Jordanian pilot on fire while locked inside a cage days after his fighter jet was shot down, and drowning opponents in pools after locking them in giant metal cages.

A coalition of more than 80 countries, led by the United States, was formed to fight IS and a decade , the alliance continues to carry out raids against the militants’ hideouts in Syria and Iraq.

Iraqi Army soldiers secure streets in a village recently liberated from Islamic State militants outside Mosul, Iraq, on Dec. 1, 2016. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban, File)

The war against IS officially ended in March 2019, when U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces captured the eastern Syrian town of Baghouz, which was the last sliver of land the extremists controlled.

Before the loss of Baghouz, IS was defeated in Iraq in July 2017, when Iraqi forces captured the northern city of Mosul. Three months later, IS suffered a major blow when SDF captured the Syrian northern city of Raqqa, which was the group’s de-facto capital.

The United Nations says the group still has between 5,000 and 7,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq.

Still, at least in Iraq, government and military officials have asserted that the group is too weak to stage a comeback.

“It is not possible for (IS) to claim a caliphate once again. They don’t have the command or control capabilities to do so,” Iraqi army Maj. Gen. Tahseen al-Khafaji told the AP at the headquarters of the Joint Special Operations Command in Baghdad, where Iraqi officers and officials from the U.S.-led coalition supervise operations against the extremists.

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The command, which was formed to lead operations against the group starting weeks after the caliphate was declared, remains active.

Al-Khafaji said that IS is now made up of sleeper cells in caves and the desert in remote areas, as Iraqi security forces keep them on the run. During the first five months of the year, he said, Iraqi forces conducted 35 airstrikes against IS and killed 51 of its members.

Also at the headquarters, Sabah al-Noman of the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service said that having lost its hold on Iraq, the militant group is focused mostly on Africa, especially the Sahel region, to try to get a foothold there.

Smoke rises as Iraq’s elite counterterrorism forces fight against Islamic State militants to regain control of al-Bakr neighborhood in Mosul, Iraq, on Dec. 12, 2016. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban, File)

“It is not possible for them to take control of a village, let alone an Iraqi city,” he said. He added that the U.S.-led coalition continues to carry out reconnaissance and surveillance in order to provide Iraqi forces with intelligence, and the security forces “deal with this information directly.”

Although IS appears to be under control in Iraq, it has killed dozens of government forces and SDF fighters over the past several months in Syria.

“Daesh terrorist cells continue in their terrorist operations,” SDF spokesman Siamand Ali said. “They are present on the ground and are working at levels higher than those of previous years.”

In northeast Syria, SDF fighters guard around 10,000 captured IS fighters in around two dozen detention facilities — including 2,000 foreigners whose home countries have refused to repatriate them.

The SDF also oversees about 33,000 family members of suspected IS fighters, mostly women and children in the heavily-guarded al-Hol camp, which is seen as a breeding center for future extremists.

Their worst attack since the group’s defeat occurred in January 2022, when the extremists attacked the Gweiran Prison, or al-Sinaa — a Kurdish-run facility in Syria’s northeast holding thousands of IS militants. The attack led to 10 days of fighting between SDF fighters and IS militants that left nearly 500 dead on both sides, before the SDF brought the situation under control.

Caggins said that the U.S.-led coalition’s “military advice and assistance” to Iraq Security Forces, Kurdish Iraqi fighters and the SDF “is essential to maintain dominance against ISIS remnants as well as securing more than 10,000 ISIS detainees at makeshift jails and camps in Syria.”

Johannesburg, South Africa – Nearly a month since landmark national elections saw the African National Congress (ANC) lose its majority for the first time, forcing it to form a coalition to govern South Africa, a deadlock stemming from the allocation of cabinet positions threatened to topple the whole house of cards.

Tense negotiations, mainly between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA), the two biggest parties in the coalition, led to delays this week of President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing his cabinet in the Government of National Unity (GNU).

Fears were heightened and markets reacted badly to news of DA leader John Steenhuisen threatening to withdraw from the coalition amid leaks of letters between the two parties’ leaders showing them at loggerheads.

But by Friday, as Ramaphosa was due to meet Steenhuisen, the political bartering that characterised the last two weeks of talks showed signs of an imminent agreement.

The rand – which fell amid news of the discord – strengthened following indications that a cabinet announcement was pending and that the government would include the market-friendly, right-leaning DA.

Political analyst Khaya Sithole said markets were in favour of the DA being part of the GNU – a multiparty coalition – because the party is unlikely to demand radical shifts in economic policy.

“A GNU with the DA gives the perception that there will be continuity in economic policy because the ANC will maintain the trajectory it was on,” Sithole told Al Jazeera.

He said the DA – which holds 87 parliamentary seats compared with the ANC’s 159 – would not demand new policies or have sufficient political muscle to push through radical changes.

“Markets are buying into the continuation of government policies and programmes,” Sithole said, adding that, “an ANC partnership with the DA does not upend the script.”

He said markets adversely reacted to fears that the DA may pull out of the GNU because the alternative – a possible allegiance between the ANC, the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and other smaller parties – represented uncertainty.

Leaked letters

The negotiations between parties in the GNU over cabinet positions were marked by a flurry of meetings and correspondence between Ramaphosa and party leaders.

During talks, the DA’s demands for specific powerful ministerial positions prompted a stern warning by Ramaphosa in a letter, leaked to the media, that the “DA has jeopardised the foundation of setting up a Government of National Unity by moving the goalposts”.

The DA began negotiations with a long list of demands which included 11 cabinet minister posts, a dozen deputy minister positions – including the deputy finance post – and other changes in governance legislation.

The party first demanded the deputy president position but conceded when ANC negotiators pushed back.

The ANC labelled the initial demands from the DA as “outrageous” and sought to negotiate with other parties as a backup.

A subsequent meeting between Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen appeared to have settled differences and calmed tensions.

However, after agreeing to six positions in the cabinet, the DA dug in.

Steenhuisen – in a letter to Ramaphosa – threatened to withdraw from their coalition agreement if Ramaphosa did not award the party eight ministerial positions.

“On a pure proportional basis, out of a Cabinet of 30, the DA’s share of support within the GNU translates to nine positions rather than the six that are currently on the table. Similarly, we cannot see the rationale for reducing the number of DA Deputy Ministries to only four,” Steenhuisen said in a letter to Ramaphosa dated June 24.

Ramaphosa took a hardline response, giving the DA a take-it or leave-it offer, after refusing to increase the number of positions offered to the DA.

“I must advise that we are continuing to hold discussions with other parties over the portfolios they could occupy as we seek to finalise the agreement on the GNU. I need to advise that the task of setting up government is quite urgent as we cannot continue with this paralysis,” Ramaphosa wrote in a letter dated June 25 that was leaked to the media.

The DA has 21 percent of electoral support compared with the ANC’s 40 percent. The other parties who have signed a declaration of intent make up 8.5 percent of combined electoral support.

‘Almost done’

On Friday, media reports quoting DA officials said the party is still committed to working out a deal with Ramaphosa.

Meanwhile, Fikile Mbalula, the ANC secretary-general, posted on X that parties were “almost done with GNU discussions … It will be done as promised.”

Good morning South Africa almost done with GNU discussions,In the best interest of all south africans . It will be done as promised.

— ANC SECRETARY GENERAL | Fikile Mbalula (@MbalulaFikile) June 28, 2024

Also on Friday, Ramaphosa announced that the opening of the new parliament would take place on July 18.

The 71-year-old leader was re-elected for a second full term after the ANC’s unprecedented loss of support in the May 29 election – the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994 that the party got less than a 50 percent majority.

In the aftermath, the ANC opted to form a coalition government. But they decided against a firm grand coalition with the DA, and opened up negotiations with the smaller parties represented in government to be part of the GNU.

The GNU now comprises 10 parties, including the nationalist Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), right-wing populist Patriotic Alliance (PA), and the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC), among others.

Political analyst and commentator Lukhona Mnguni said the DA’s demands proved that their participation in government alongside the ANC remained “an absolute gamble for them”.

“They want enough insulation from the ANC and they want to prove that they have enough isolation from the ANC,” Mnguni told Al Jazeera.

He said the DA fears being swallowed by the ANC in the GNU and want to assert themselves despite the ANC having twice as much support as they have.

“The fight is about their political interest as political parties and how it affects their standing in the 2029 elections,” he said.

‘Anxieties’ and differing interests

Mnguni said the back and forth gave an indication of the “anxieties” the DA had about being part of government with the ANC and other smaller parties.

While the DA preferred a grand coalition with the ANC to co-govern the country, the ANC has insisted on bringing smaller parties into a unity government.

Following its list of demands, ANC leaders accused the DA of negotiating in bad faith and pushed back on all fronts.

“The ANC’s actions show vulnerability and assertiveness. The two could be a dangerous combination because it can create a deadlock,” Mnguni noted.

During a final series of talks between Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen, the latter insisted that the DA be awarded the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition.

That ministry is key in developing economic policy and oversees the government’s transformation efforts, as well as efforts to break monopolies.

The DA, a largely white-led party, is not in support of all the ANC’s Black empowerment programmes.

The party’s demand for the trade and industry position raised the ire of ANC leaders who insisted that the DA were overplaying their hand in negotiations.

Mnguni said the DA sought to ensure they had influence in the executive.

“Both parties could back out,” he said when asked about the possibility of the DA walking out of the GNU.