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Europe’s gas prices have broken a new record. How high can they go?

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Europe’s gas prices have broken a new record. How high can they go?

There isn’t any stopping Europe’s fuel payments.

On Wednesday, future fuel costs on the Title Switch Facility (TTF), the continent’s main buying and selling hub, reached €292 per megawatt-hour, a stratospheric determine in comparison with the €27 set a 12 months in the past.

The brand new all-time excessive follows a stunning announcement by Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled power large, who final week stated it could quickly shut down Nord Stream 1 — which pipes fuel from Russia to Germany — for a three-day upkeep operation, carried out alongside Siemens.

Gazprom argues the pipeline should be checked for cracks, dents, leaks and different potential glitches. 

European politicians have repeatedly accused the corporate of weaponising power flows and exploiting technical questions as an excuse for piling stress on nations at Vladimir Putin’s will.

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“Upon the completion of upkeep operations, supplied that no malfunctions are recognized, fuel transmission might be resumed on the price of 33 million cubic metres per day,” Gazprom stated.

The speed barely represents 20% of the pipeline’s capability to hold as much as 167 million cubic metres each day. The dwindling flows have compelled Germany, Nord Stream’s foremost recipient, to set off the second part of its power emergency plan and bail out Uniper, an importer of wholesale Russian fuel.

However even earlier than Gazprom took the sudden resolution, fuel costs throughout Europe had begun a brand new regular rise. By late July, the earlier document excessive achieved in early March, shortly after Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine, was shattered.

Up to now, August has seen a seemingly unstoppable rise in fuel costs, bringing the continent dangerously near the €300 per megawatt-hour barrier. 

A warmer-than-usual summer season and a subsequent improve in air con use have additionally fuelled the upward pattern, along with a extreme drought that has shrunk hydropower and restricted exercise in nuclear crops.

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On the similar time, governments are dashing to replenish their fuel storage forward of the winter season, as fears of widespread discontent develop by the day. The procuring spree has inevitably swollen costs, with capitals keen to foot the costly invoice.

“The subsequent 5 to 10 winters might be tough,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has warned.

Whereas storage performs a key function within the safety of provides, it’s removed from being a panacea for the EU’s a number of power woes: the bloc has a capability to retailer over 100 billion cubic metres (bcm) of fuel – 1 / 4 of its annual 400 bcm consumption.

Aware of those shortcomings, member states have already established a plan to voluntarily cut back fuel demand by 15% earlier than subsequent spring. The unprecedented effort is supposed to cushion the influence of a complete cut-off of Russian flows, a drastic state of affairs that has in latest months gone from distant to doubtless.

As fuel costs proceed to climb, a urgent query emerges: simply how excessive can they go?

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“In concept, there isn’t any restrict. The market, because it all the time does, is factoring within the worst circumstances, the worst interpretation,” Jonathan Stern, a analysis fellow on the Oxford Institute for Power Research, instructed Euronews.

“If Nord Stream 1 would not resume flows after the three-day upkeep, there isn’t any option to say how unhealthy costs can go. A minimum of, till we see how chilly winter is – that is most likely when costs will peak.”

‘Severely provide constrained’

Hypothesis is an inherent a part of Europe’s power market.

The system is as we speak liberalised and responds to the elemental dynamics of provide and demand. In the course of the worst months of the pandemic, when financial exercise just about floor to a halt, future fuel costs on the TTF fell under the €10 per megawatt-hour, main producers to very large losses.

This was not all the time the case: earlier than the 2000s, most fuel contracts have been primarily based on a long-term perspective and linked to the value of one other essential fossil gasoline: oil. The indexation provided certainty and stability however proved too inflexible and synthetic to take care of the challenges of the brand new millennium.

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The market steadily moved to shorter contracts primarily based on real-time financial developments, which resulted in decrease and extra aggressive costs for each trade and customers. This flexibility was deemed important to spice up transparency and accommodate the inexperienced transition.

The swap, nevertheless, left Europe extra uncovered to cost volatility: as demand for fuel rose, so did the payments.

Till 2022, the ups and downs have been manageable. The spike skilled in late 2021 within the midst of the financial restoration obtained a middle-of-the-road reply from policy-makers: tax cuts, vouchers for weak households and subsidies for struggling firms.

However the resolution of Russia, the EU’s foremost power provider, to invade Ukraine has stretched the liberalised system to its most excessive limits. Hypothesis surrounding Gazprom’s subsequent transfer is rife and dictates the market’s wild ebbs and flows.

Households now grapple with impossibly costly electrical energy payments, factories slash their manufacturing hours in a bid to avoid wasting energy and governments draft plans for the dreaded chance of fuel rationing. In the meantime, power drives inflation to document highs, central banks rush to hike rates of interest, the euro reaches parity with the greenback and a deep recession looms over all the continent.

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“In case of a recession, our lives might be more durable in some ways, however simpler when it comes to power. Fuel demand will drop and produce costs manner from the place they’re now,” stated Professor Stern.

“Nevertheless, we can’t see ‘regular’ costs anytime quickly – not for a minimum of for 3 to 4 years,” he added, downgrading De Croo’s ominous warning.

The continent, Stern stated, stays “critically provide constrained,” no matter latest offers with the USA, Egypt, Israel, Algeria, Azerbaijan and Canada geared toward diversifying power suppliers.

The most recent information reveals Europe imported document quantities of liquefied pure fuel (LNG) from America, to the detriment of the Asian area, a standard purchaser, as China undergoes a pointy financial slowdown.

However not even this excellent news has been sufficient to pacify fuel costs. The concentrated push in favour of LNG, which affords better selection than pipelines however entails excessive prices to construct coastal terminals, is excepted to take a number of years to completely materialise and simmer Europe’s rattled power market.

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Maps: 7.2-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Peru

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Maps: 7.2-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Peru

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 4 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “light,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown. The New York Times

A major, 7.2-magnitude earthquake struck in the South Pacific Ocean off Peru on Friday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 12:36 a.m. Peru time about 5 miles west of Atiquipa, Peru, data from the agency shows. Follow our coverage here.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Aftershocks in the region

An aftershock is usually a smaller earthquake that follows a larger one in the same general area. Aftershocks are typically minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.

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Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles

Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Peru time. Shake data is as of Friday, June 28 at 1:53 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Friday, June 28 at 8:36 p.m. Eastern.

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US removes Gaza aid pier due to weather and may not put it back, officials say

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US removes Gaza aid pier due to weather and may not put it back, officials say

The pier built by the U.S. military to bring aid to Gaza has been removed due to weather to protect it, and the U.S. is considering not re-installing it unless the aid begins flowing out into the population again, U.S. officials said Friday.

While the military has helped deliver desperately needed food through the pier, the vast majority of it is still sitting in the adjacent storage yard and that area is almost full. Aid agencies have had difficulty moving the food to areas further into Gaza where it is most needed because the humanitarian convoys have come under attack.

EXCLUSIVE: ISRAEL TO BOOST FRESH WATER SUPPLY IN GAZA WITH PLANT UPGRADE AS UN WARNS IT MAY SUSPEND AID

The U.N., which has the widest reach in delivering aid to starving Palestinians, hasn’t been distributing food and other emergency supplies arriving through the pier since June 9. The pause came after the Israeli military used an area near the pier to fly out hostages after their rescue in a raid that killed more than 270 Palestinians, prompting a U.N. security review over concerns that aid workers’ safety and neutrality may have compromised.

A U.S. Army soldier gestures as trucks loaded with humanitarian aid arrive at the U.S.-built floating pier Trident before reaching the beach on the coast of the Gaza Strip, Tuesday, June 25, 2024.  (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

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U.N. World Food Program spokesman Steve Taravella said Friday that the U.N. participation in the pier project is still on pause pending resolution of the security concerns.

While always meant to be temporary and never touted as a complete solution to the problems getting humanitarian aid into Gaza, President Joe Biden’s $230 million project has faced a series of setbacks since aid first rolled ashore May 17 and has been criticized by relief groups and congressional Republicans as a costly distraction.

The pier has been used to get more than 19.4 million pounds, or 8.6 million kilograms, of food into Gaza, but has been stymied not only by aid pauses but unpredictable weather. Rough seas damaged the pier just days into its initial operations, forcing the military to remove it temporarily for repairs and then reinstall it. Heavy seas on Friday forced the military to remove it again and take it to the Israeli port at Ashdod.

Several U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss military movements, said the military could reinstall the pier once the bad weather passes in the coming days, but the final decision on whether to reinstall it hasn’t been made.

Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, acknowledged that she doesn’t know when the pier will be reinstalled. “When the commander decides that it is the right time to reinstall that pier, we’ll keep you updated on that.,” she said.

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She also said Friday that there is a need for more aid to come into Cyprus and be transported to the pier. She noted that the secure area onshore is “pretty close to full,” but that the intention is still to get aid into Gaza by all means necessary. She said the U.S. is having discussions with the aid agencies about the distribution of the food.

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But, she added, “Of course, if there’s not enough room in the marshalling yard, then it doesn’t make sense to put our men or women out there when there’s nothing to do.”

Palestinians are facing widespread hunger because fighting in the nearly nine-month Israel-Hamas war, Israeli restrictions on border crossings that are far more productive than the sea route and the attacks on the aid convoys have severely limited the flow of food, medicine and other supplies.

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Meloni condemns antisemitism among ruling party's youth league

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Meloni condemns antisemitism among ruling party's youth league

Left-wing news outlet Fanpage claimed it had video evidence of some National Youth members using racist slurs and making a Nazi salute.

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Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has condemned racist and antisemitic remarks made by some members of the ruling Brothers of Italy party’s youth league.

Speaking to reporters in Brussels, Meloni said antisemitism and racism are incompatible with the party after two leading members of the National Youth resigned over alleged antisemtic remarks made against a Jewish Senator.

“I have said many times and repeat, I think that those who have racist, antisemitic or nostalgic feelings have simply got their home wrong, because these feelings are incompatible with the Brothers of Italy, they are incompatible with the Italian right, they are incompatible with the political line which we have clearly defined in recent years, and therefore I do not accept that there are ambiguities on this,” she said.

Meloni’s comments come after a report appeared in the left-wing online newspaper, Fanpage, which claimed it had video and audio recordings of some National Youth members using racist slurs and making Nazi salutes.

But Meloni also took a swipe at Fanpage’s reporting methods.

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“I think that if we want to call it a journalistic investigation, the same attitude and the same investigation would be carried out in all the youth organisations of other political parties. We don’t know what could come out, we won’t know. You know why? Because in the history of the Italian Republic, what Fanpage did with Brothers of Italy is a first,” she said.

“It has never even been considered that they could infiltrate a political organisation, secretly record its meetings, also record the personal affairs of minors.”

The Fanpage investigation, entitled ‘Melonian Youth’, has sent shockwaves through the Brothers of Italy at the same time as Meloni has been seeking to cement a reputation as a moderate voice on the EU stage.

There has also been outrage from members of the Jewish Community of Rome, with some calling on Meloni to punish the youth wing members exposed in the investigation. 

“The Jewish Community of Rome condemns the shameful images of racism and antisemitism that emerged from the Fanpage investigation,” president Victor Fadlun posted on X.

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He’s urged the party to take “appropriate action,” saying it was “imperative that society” reacts against discrimination.

Brothers of Italy has its roots in the Italian Social Movement (MSI), formed in 1946 as a successor to Benito Mussolini’s fascist movement that ruled Italy for more than 20 years.

Meloni has repeatedly condemned the racist, anti-Jewish laws enacted by Mussolini in 1938 in a bid to turn her party into a mainstream conservative force.

But she has also ignored calls to declare herself “anti-fascist”, prompting some of her critics to say she has failed to fully distance herself from neo-fascism.

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