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China's Belt and Road Initiative is bringing new risks to Europe
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China’s grand vision of the world-changing BRI may have not been realised, but something else is emerging in its wake — a powerful lever to bend authoritarian-leaning countries toward Chinese interests, Elaine Dezenski writes.
Hungary was the first European country to sign on to China’s trillion-euro Belt and Road Initiative. With Italy leaving the Belt and Road, or BRI, last year, and others in Europe expressing concern about engagement with China, Budapest may also soon be one of the last remaining links of the BRI to Europe.
By all appearances, the BRI is in retreat, with Chinese infrastructure spending down around the world as Beijing deals with a troubling track record of BRI corruption, waste, debt distress, and failing projects.
But as the infrastructure and ambitions for the BRI fade, something more dangerous may be rising up to take its place — an authoritarian alliance of security, surveillance, and repression that puts Europe at risk.
A railway worth a thousand years od debt
Hungary exemplifies this shift. Like many BRI countries, Hungary signed up for a massive infrastructure project it both didn’t need and couldn’t afford.
The €3.8 billion Serbia-Hungary railway project, financed by Chinese loans under the BRI, is expected to be completed by 2025, but some estimates suggest that it will take a further 979 years — or nearly a millennium — for Hungary to break even on the project.
Hungary’s BRI issues are not unique. As described in a new report on the BRI, “Tightening the Belt or End of the Road”, many BRI projects around the world face serious challenges, from hydroelectric dams with thousands of cracks in Ecuador, to promised infrastructure that was never built in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to massive debt distress in Zambia.
But despite the problems for host countries and the large portfolio of failing loans for China, Beijing has still been successful at building influence across authoritarian-leaning regimes, who are eager to follow the Chinese model of single-party state control and high-tech domestic repression.
Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Angola have all purchased AI-powered surveillance and facial recognition technology from China — presumably to track or intimidate political opponents.
Of 90 countries that could be categorised on a spectrum from “closed authoritarian” to “flawed democracies,” China had sold its surveillance tech to 54 of them — often under the banner of the BRI.
NATO and the EU facing an existential crisis?
Hungary, a member of both the European Union and NATO that has been sliding deeper into authoritarianism over the past decade, is a perfect target for Beijing’s security-based BRI aspirations — the export of political repression with Chinese characteristics. Viktor Orban’s right-wing nationalist government seems an odd match for Communist China, but they share a commitment to what Orban has himself described as an intentionally “illiberal state”.
Furthering their mutual interest in preventing domestic dissent, Beijing announced new bilateral cooperation between China and Hungary on “security and law enforcement capacity building under the Belt and Road Initiative”.
This new BRI security cooperation comes during a period where Hungary has been leveraging its position in European alliances to, water down or obstruct EU support for Ukraine, oppose EU efforts to criticise China for human rights abuses and impede and delay Sweden’s attempts to join NATO.
Hungary’s willingness to enter security arrangements with Xi Jinping and do the bidding of Vladimir Putin while, simultaneously, maintain membership in NATO and the EU is deeply troubling and presents an existential crisis for those alliances.
On top of that, Chinese economic integration in Hungary presents risks of its own. Already home to Europe’s largest Huawei logistics and manufacturing base outside of China, China battery giant, CATL, has announced plans to build a €7.3bn plant near the Hungarian town of Debrecen — allowing China to dominate electric vehicle supply chains from inside the EU.
This is similar to moves from other Chinese companies, like carmaker BYD, that are considering building factories in Mexico in an attempt to circumvent trade restrictions that would otherwise apply under the US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement.
It’s time to wake up to the risk of overreliance on China
As the US and its allies have awoken to the risk of overreliance on Chinese supply lines, Hungarian officials are taking the opposite approach, going so far as to call de-risking suicidal.
This position, however, doesn’t impact Hungary alone. The entire EU market is open to Chinese manipulations through the Hungarian economy, such as dumping of cheap goods to prop up the failing Chinese economy or undermining domestic European industries with subsidised competitors.
As German chemical giant BASF seeks to disengage from China’s Xinjiang region, leaked documents indicate that China is planning to build a chemical hub in Hungary.
ADVERTISEMENTChina’s grand vision of the world-changing BRI may have not been realised, but something else is emerging in its wake — a powerful lever to bend authoritarian-leaning countries toward Chinese interests.
For Hungary, this is detrimental to its citizens, its neighbours, and Europe as a whole.
Elaine Dezenski is senior director and head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, DC.
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The United Kingdom on Monday blamed an Iran-linked proxy group for a string of antisemitic arson attacks targeting British Jewish sites, prompting the government to ban Tehran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and impose sweeping new powers to crack down on foreign-backed sabotage.
British officials said the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right (IMCR) publicly claimed responsibility for seven attacks this year targeting Jewish and Israeli-linked locations, as well as a Persian-language media outlet critical of Iran’s government. According to the U.K. government, members of the IRGC’s elite Qods Force were “almost certainly” directing the group’s operations across Europe.
The attacks included fires at synagogues, Jewish charity ambulances and other Jewish community sites in London. No injuries were reported.
DESANTIS ANNOUNCES PLANS TO USE NEW STATE LAW TO TARGET DOZENS OF ALLEGED TERRORIST GROUPS
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosts a reception with the Jewish community to discuss efforts to tackle antisemitism, at Downing Street, in London, July 13, 2026. (Reuters/Suzanne Plunkett/Pool)
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the new measures send a clear message to foreign adversaries seeking to sow violence.
“We will never let Britain be a playground for states who want to spread fear, division and violence on our streets,” Starmer said. “Anyone acting on behalf of those who threaten our national security should be in no doubt that there is no place for you in Britain.”
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer discusses efforts to tackle antisemitism at Downing Street in London, Monday, July 13, 2026. (Suzanne Plunkett/Pool Photo via AP)
If Parliament approves the designations later this week, anyone carrying out acts of sabotage — including arson — on behalf of the IRGC, IMCR or Russia’s GRU Volunteer Corps could face life imprisonment. Supporting or assisting the groups could carry prison sentences of up to 14 years.
The British government said the new authorities, created under the National Security (State Threats) Act 2026, will make it easier for prosecutors to secure convictions because they will no longer have to prove a direct foreign government connection in every case.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood accused both Tehran and Moscow of relying on criminal proxies to conduct hostile operations inside the United Kingdom.
“Iran and Russia are using proxies and thugs to do their dirty work on our shores,” Mahmood said. “I have rapidly designated three groups so those working for them will be tracked down and put behind bars.”
ISRAEL FORTIFIES BORDER WITH JORDAN AS IRAN SEEKS NEW TERROR PATH
The government said IMCR emerged online earlier this year and has also claimed responsibility for attacks on synagogues in Belgium and the Netherlands. British intelligence officials say Iran-backed proxy groups have increasingly recruited members of criminal organizations to carry out sabotage, intimidation and physical attacks across Europe, often targeting Jewish communities and Iranian dissidents.
Charred remains of ambulances belonging to Hatzola, a Jewish community organization, which were set on fire in an incident that the police say is being treated as an antisemitic hate crime, in London, March 23, 2026. (Hannah McKay/Reuters)
According to the U.K., MI5 identified at least 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots against individuals in Britain over the past year. The government has already sanctioned more than 550 Iranian-linked individuals and entities and has pledged £250 million ($334,662,500) over three years to strengthen security for Jewish communities, including increased protection for synagogues, schools and community centers.
Britain also designated Russia’s GRU Volunteer Corps, saying the group acts as a proxy for Russian military intelligence by recruiting individuals online to conduct sabotage, arson and other hostile operations.
The crackdown comes just weeks after two Romanian men were sentenced to prison for stabbing a journalist working for a Persian-language television station in London, an attack a British judge said was carried out on behalf of the Iranian state.
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Iran did not immediately comment on Monday’s announcement, according to The Associated Press.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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The European Union has sanctioned VK Company, which dominates Russia’s online sphere, for colluding with the Kremlin to identify critics of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and curtail access to independent sources of information.
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VK Company runs VKontakte, the country’s most popular social media site. Often described as “the Russian Facebook”, it has an estimated 70 million users.
The decision, taken on Monday by foreign ministers, points the finger at VK Company and an associated firm for developing and managing Max App, which is state-backed and comes pre-installed on all phones and tablets sold in Russia.
Citing experts, Brussels argues that Max App has “extensive surveillance features” that Russian authorities use to track online communications, gather data, monitor address books, identify user location and install autonomous updates.
The imposition of Max App has helped the state crack down on competitors, such as WhatsApp, Instagram and Telegram, and on VPNs, the private networks that Russians employ to bypass increasingly stringent state restrictions on the Internet.
“VK has cooperated with Russian authorities in their repressive actions, including by providing them with data concerning users of its services who posted content criticising Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, or other content banned by the authorities,” the legal text says.
“VK has also participated in the government-ordered ban on the use of VPNs, through which Russian internet users could previously access independent content.”
Monday’s decision introduces an asset freeze and prohibits EU companies from making funds available to VK Company. In a statement to Russian state-owned media outlet TASS, the firm said that its applications and services remained “available to users as normal”.
Besides VK Company, the EU also sanctioned Citadel, VAS Experts and Norsi-Trans, three companies that provide hardware and software for the so-called System of Operative Investigative Measures that Russian authorities use to track online communication and target journalists, opposition figures, minority groups and ordinary citizens.
The restrictions were adopted under a special regime dedicated to punishing human rights violations.
Separately, the EU sanctionednine individuals and four entities accused of carrying out “malicious” cyber attacks against several member states.
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