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Analysis: Hezbollah backs Iran ambassador as conflict deepens Lebanon rifts

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Analysis: Hezbollah backs Iran ambassador as conflict deepens Lebanon rifts

Beirut, Lebanon – On March 24, Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi declared Iran’s ambassador to Beirut persona non grata and gave him until March 29 to leave the country.

But two days after the deadline, Ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani is still in Lebanon.

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The incident comes amid another Israeli war and invasion of Lebanon, which has so far killed more than one thousand people and displaced more than 1.2 million others in just one month.

It has also highlighted a deep political divide in the country – between supporters and opponents of the pro-Iranian Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah. The debate over Hezbollah’s weapons and Iran’s role in Lebanon has taken on a new dimension with the US-Israeli war on Iran and with Hezbollah’s re-entry into war with Israel, reportedly under the command of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

“The ambassador’s refusal to leave reflects a deeper political contest over legitimacy and authority,” Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, told Al Jazeera.

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IRGC calling the shots

Iran’s influence on Lebanon started to take shape in 1982, when the IRGC helped fellow Shia Muslims form Hezbollah as a response to Israeli invasion and occupation. Over the years, Hezbollah became the most powerful actor in Lebanon, both politically and militarily, in large part due to billions of dollars in Iranian funding.

Hezbollah peaked in popularity in 2000, when the group drove the Israeli military out of south Lebanon, ending an 18-year occupation. But subsequent events, which include engaging in the 2006 war with Israel, deploying fighters to the streets of Beirut in 2008, joining the Syrian civil war in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2011, and sending partisans to attack protesters during a 2019 uprising, eroded much of the group’s support outside of its core constituency.

When Hezbollah entered war with Israel on October 8, 2023, the group had few supporters outside the Shia Muslim community. By the time a ceasefire was agreed with Israel in November 2024, the group was also at its lowest politically and militarily. Israel had killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, mostly Shia, including Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of its military leadership.

With Hezbollah weakened, many in the international community began demanding the disarmament of Hezbollah,  and the Lebanese government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun made it a priority.

But the IRGC reportedly used the calm brought on by the ceasefire to send officials to Lebanon to help Hezbollah restructure. And some analysts believe it was Tehran that made the call for Hezbollah to re-enter the war with Israel on March 2, just a couple of days after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in Tehran.

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Lebanon’s Prime Minister Salam recently made a similar claim, saying that the IRGC is “managing the military operation in Lebanon”. He also accused the Iranian group of firing an attack at Lebanon’s island neighbour to the west, Cyprus.

Ambassador won’t leave

In light of the IRGC’s perceived role in Lebanon, Raggi declared Sheibani persona non grata, effectively removing his diplomatic immunity and asking him to leave the country.

“The Lebanese government’s decision to order the ambassador of Iran out of the country represents a landmark decision in Lebanese politics, given Iran’s profound role in Lebanese politics and its backing for Hezbollah’s militia,” Dania Arayssi, a senior analyst at New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, told Al Jazeera.

But Iran’s Foreign Ministry has said Sheibani won’t leave.

Sheibani’s stay in Lebanon is being backed by Hezbollah, whose officials have made stark statements in local media in recent weeks indicating that the government will have to rescind its decisions on Hezbollah’s disarmament.

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“The cabinet decision to disarm Hezbollah triggered the group to make explicit threats to ‘punish’ those involved,” Arayssi said.

Also in Sheibani’s corner is Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Though Berri is a longtime Hezbollah ally,  following Hezbollah’s reentry into the war in March, he initially supported the government’s decision to ban Hezbollah’s military activity.

‘Authority on paper’

The war on Iran and Hezbollah’s reenergised war campaign, in which it is still firing dozens of attacks and militarily engaging with Israeli troops on the ground in Lebanon, is shifting political fortunes, making it more difficult for the government to remove Hezbollah’s military power.

The group, considered badly weakened before its re-entry into the war, is now exerting more confidence militarily and politically in Lebanon.

That is likely connected to Iran’s fortunes, as the government there appears to be holding on to power despite a month of attacks and assassinations.

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For his part, Sheibani cannot be stopped or arrested as long as he stays inside the Iranian compound.

Hezbollah’s critics say that the Iranian government’s refusal to abide by the government decision undermines the state’s authority, which has been faltering since the war began. Many of Hezbollah’s most fervent opponents have continued calling for their disarmament, but analysts say that is increasingly difficult while the group is actively fighting Israel, particularly on Lebanese territory.

“The state is asserting its authority on paper,” Salamey said. “But it is constrained in practice by internal divisions and competing claims of legitimacy, with each step testing the boundaries of Lebanon’s power-sharing system.”

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Michigan’s Dominance Poses Threat to NCAA Title Game Ratings

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Michigan’s Dominance Poses Threat to NCAA Title Game Ratings

As much as cable’s dwindling reach presents an obvious challenge to pay-TV advertisers, Michigan’s tendency to blow out its opponents may prove to be the biggest drain on the audience deliveries for Monday night’s national championship game.

The Wolverines have buzzsawed through the 2025-26 hoops campaign on rampage mode, racking up the fourth-biggest scoring average for a Power Four team (87.8 points per game), or nearly 11 points higher than UConn’s output (76.9). And if Michigan seemed averse to taking its foot off the gas during the regular season, Dusty May’s squad has all but tear-assed its way through March Madness, becoming the first-ever team to score 90 points or better in each of its five tournament games.

Michigan’s offense has been particularly relentless down the stretch—so much so that its last two games were effectively decided before the half. The Wolverines were up 48-26 against Tennessee after the first 20-minute stretch of their Elite Eight matchup, which did CBS no favors. Per Nielsen, the Sunday afternoon broadcast averaged 7.49 million viewers, a far cry from the 13.4 million viewers who took in UConn-Duke in the lead-out window. (And let this be a lesson to fair-weather fans who bail at the midway mark: While the Huskies were down 44-29 at the half, they would go on to Laettner their way to a delirious 73-72 victory, courtesy of Braylon Mullins’ 35-foot buzzer beater.)

After Michigan dispatched the Vols by a 33-point margin, the Big Ten outfit did a similar number on fellow No. 1 seed Arizona in the Final Four. At the half, the Wolverines had established a 48-32 lead over the Wildcats, and, thanks in part to a 26-12 advantage in points off turnovers, Michigan would propel itself to the title game with a suspense-free 91-73 win.

All told, Michigan has posted a relentless 21.6-point average margin of victory in the tourney since it breezed past Howard 101-80 in the opening round. That game averaged 4.52 million viewers on CBS.

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Through the Final Four, Michigan in this year’s tourney has averaged 94.4 points per game while allowing its opponents to put up 72.8. UConn’s offense hasn’t been nearly as prolific, averaging 73.2 points per game, although its D has been downright miserly. Over the last five games, the Huskies have ceded a stingy 65.0 points per outing. That said, Michigan is a 6.5-point favorite—which, as it just so happens, are the same odds UConn boasted ahead of the opening tip of the 2023 and 2024 championship games.

Speaking of which, those two games were the least-watched title tilts on record, as UConn’s 76-59 defeat of San Diego State in 2023 averaged 14.7 million viewers on CBS, while the following year’s 75-60 win over Purdue eked out 133,000 more impressions.

UConn has never been a huge TV draw, as its 2004 win over Georgia Tech averaged a relatively meager 17.1 million viewers, down from 18.6 million for the previous year’s Syracuse-Kansas game and off 28% compared to Maryland-Indiana in 2002 (23.7 million). That said, the Huskies’ first national title appearance averaged 26.3 million viewers in 1999, although its opponent—Mike Krzyzewski’s Duke Blue Devils—have long been the college game’s star attraction. Duke’s 1992 victory over Michigan averaged a staggering 34.3 million viewers, making it the second most-watched college basketball game in history. (Top honors go to the Bird vs. Magic/Indiana State-Michigan State slugfest in 1979, which averaged 35.1 million viewers on NBC.)

Of course, UConn has a whole lot of history on its side, having never lost a title in six trips. While the North Carolina Tar Heels have matched the Huskies in the W column, UNC has also lost a half-dozen championship bouts. Kentucky is 8-4, with its last victory coming against Kansas in 2012, while even mighty UCLA tasted defeat twice in the course of amassing a record 11 crowns. John Wooden’s program ran up a perfect 10-0 mark from 1964 to 1975.

If UConn manages to preserve its unblemished streak, TNT Sports may have a shot at coming within shooting distance of last year’s Florida-Houston turnout (18.1 million viewers). As much as cable’s reach puts TBS et al at something of a disadvantage, it’s worth noting that CBS has the dubious distinction of drawing the all-time low in 2023. Still, the gap separating the broadcast networks from their cable counterparts is not inconsiderable; including those fans who access their favorite cable channels via a virtual MVPD, the reach of the TNT Sports portfolio now lags the old school over-the-air nets by more than 20 million households.

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Michigan appeared in three of the 10 most-watched games of the regular season, so a close contest could go a long way toward boosting Monday night’s TV numbers. And clearly there’s been interest throughout this year’s tourney, which through the Elite Eight is averaging a 33-year high of 10.3 million viewers per window. Deliveries are up 9% versus the year-ago stretch, and while Nielsen’s upgraded ratings methodology is responsible for some of those gains, the fact that CBS and the TNT sports nets have met their March Madness guarantees is the only thing that really matters to their advertisers.

In the absence of any significant makegoods, the media partners are on pace to split more than $1 billion in total advertising revenue. If UConn and Michigan can keep things close on Monday night, the broadcast network and its cable colleagues will have a real shot at making a profit, as the combined rights fee for this year’s tourney was $1.02 billion. A nailbiter will also go a long way toward justifying the inevitable hike in next year’s pricing, which will be necessitated by yet another bump in the NCAA payout.

In 2027, the fee will reach $1.05 billion. By the time the 2030 rolls around, escalators will push the buy-in to $1.17 billion—up 14.2% compared to this year’s rate.

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Mauro compares Iran rescue of missing colonel to Maduro capture, credits intelligence preparation

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Mauro compares Iran rescue of missing colonel to Maduro capture, credits intelligence preparation

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U.S. intelligence agencies had already done the groundwork needed to locate a missing colonel inside Iran, Paul Mauro said Monday, arguing the operation relied on intelligence gathered well before the mission began.

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“You’ve got to collect, you collect, you collect and a lot of it sometimes you’re never going to use,” Mauro told “Fox & Friends.”

“The key is when you need it, it has to be there.”

Mauro pointed to the Maduro case, which unfolded at the behest of the Trump administration in January, noting U.S. forces’ ability to pinpoint where the Venezuelan dictator and his wife were going to be at the time in order to make an effective capture.

RESCUE EXPERT SAYS MOST DANGEROUS MOMENT COMES AFTER ‘JACKPOT’ CALL IN RECOVERY BEHIND ENEMY LINES

War Secretary Pete Hegseth shakes the hand of an American airman on a covert CENTCOM visit with troops in theater. (War Secretary/X)

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“They got him as they were running to a safe room without a scratch. Everybody comes out without a scratch,” he said.

“They got them as they were fleeing. That’s how detailed the messaging was, and that’s how synchronized the operation was.”

Mauro said that same level of preparation and coordination was on display in the Iran mission, where U.S. forces rescued a missing U.S. weapons systems officer from a downed F-15E following a multi-day search inside enemy territory.

TRUMP CALLS RESCUE OF DOWNED AIR FORCE PILOT AN ‘EASTER MIRACLE’

Artificial intelligence is a big factor in the Iran war and Iran realizes it. (iStock)

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U.S. intelligence was able to act quickly to retrieve the missing colonel once his location was confirmed.

“[This] was one of those situations where the bell rang. ‘Guys, what [have] you got?’ President turns around, [War Secretary] Hegseth turns around, [and] they all talk to [CIA Director John] Ratcliffe and they say, ‘What [have] you got, director?’ and fortunately it was there.”

Mauro said the operation highlights a broader fact about intelligence work that is apparent to those working within its community: its success comes down to the people running the sources.

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“At the end of the day… it comes down to people,” he said.

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“If you think that you can sit in a cubicle someplace and get everything you need to be done, that’s not how it’s going to go. You need people in country, in dangerous areas, Americans working on our behalf that you’ll never hear about… they’re running the sources so that, again, when you need it, they say, ‘My source is good.’

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US Supreme Court clears path for Steve Bannon criminal case dismissal

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US Supreme Court clears path for Steve Bannon criminal case dismissal

Bannon, an ally of US President Donald Trump, served a four-month prison sentence after his 2022 conviction for contempt of Congress.

The United States Supreme Court has cleared the way for the Justice Department to move forward with dismissing a criminal case against Steve Bannon, a key ally of President Donald Trump, who was convicted after refusing to testify or provide documents to Congress despite being issued a subpoena.

The department’s request to drop Bannon’s case was one of ‌multiple actions it has taken that have benefited allies and supporters of the Republican president since Trump returned to office last year.

Bannon served a four-month prison sentence after being convicted in 2022 on two counts of contempt of Congress for refusing to provide documents or testify to the House committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by Trump supporters.

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Trump’s Justice Department, in urging the Supreme Court to toss the lower court’s decision, told the justices in court papers that it has determined that dismissing Bannon’s case “is in the interests of justice”. The department had already filed a motion to dismiss the case at the trial court level.

Evan Corcoran, a lawyer for Bannon, welcomed the Supreme Court’s action on Monday.

“It has been one battle after another for five years, but today the Supreme Court vacated an unjust conviction, and in doing so validated a fundamental rule – like oil and water, politics and prosecution don’t mix,” Corcoran said.

A dismissal would remove Bannon’s conviction from the record, but would have little practical impact because he has already served his sentence.

Who is Steve Bannon?

Bannon, 72, served as a key adviser to Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign and his chief White House strategist in 2017 during Trump’s first term in office before a falling out between them that was later patched up.

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Bannon was released from prison a week before Trump’s victory over Democrat Kamala ‌Harris in ⁠the 2024 US presidential election.

Bannon cast himself as a political prisoner and told reporters upon his release, “I am far from broken. I have been empowered by my four months at Danbury federal prison.”

Bannon resumed hosting his “War Room” podcast.

A firebrand, Bannon helped articulate the “America First” right-wing populism and stout opposition to immigration that has helped define Trump’s presidency.

Bannon has played an instrumental role in right-wing media, promoting right-wing causes and candidates in the US and abroad.

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Lawyers for Bannon raised various legal arguments to contest the subpoena, including issues related to executive privilege, a legal principle that lets a president keep certain communications private, and the congressional committee’s authority to issue the subpoena.

Trump also pardoned many people convicted in connection with the January 6 US Capitol riot, as well as several political allies facing other criminal cases related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election, which Trump lost to former US President Joe Biden.

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