Business
Consumers aren’t clicking the PayPal button. It’s a big problem for California’s fintech pioneer
PayPal, once the cutting-edge trailblazer of digital payments, is struggling to cash in on consumer clicks like it used to.
The San José fintech giant is losing market share to competitors and had to swap out its leadership recently as its shares plunged, and it scrambled for a faster fix.
When online shoppers reach the checkout screen, they’re not clicking on the PayPal button to buy items as much as they did in the past. People have payment options from Apple, Google and others, some of which are easier to use on their smartphones.
A slowdown in PayPal’s branded checkout is at the core of the company’s biggest challenges, analysts and company executives said.
In February, PayPal let go of its chief executive, who had been working to fix the problem, but the company said his “pace of change and execution” over two years didn’t meet the board’s expectations.
In the fourth quarter, PayPal’s online branded checkout growth slowed to 1%. The company reported an adjusted profit of $1.23 per share on revenue of $8.68 billion, missing Wall Street’s expectations.
Since January, PayPal’s stock price has fallen by more than 20%.
“The problem is that transition and push for branded checkout really has not paid off,” said Grace Broadbent, a senior analyst of payments for eMarketer.
PayPal attributed the slowdown partly to the “K-shaped economy,” in which wealthier Americans see their incomes rise while lower-income Americans struggle financially. PayPal has many middle-income customers and some lower-income customers, so a pullback in spending affects use of its payments platform.
Other factors that have hurt it recently include product execution and a hit in high-growth areas such as crypto, gaming and ticketing.
The slowdown raised questions about whether PayPal’s turnaround efforts were working. The company makes most of its money by charging fees for payment services.
“The vast majority of PayPal’s profits come from the branded checkout button,” said Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev. “The yield they get when you click on the branded checkout button is multiples of any other product that they have.”
Now the pressure is on Enrique Lores, who became PayPal’s president and chief executive in March, to get the company back on track. Lores was on PayPal’s board for nearly five years and came from computer and printer maker HP, where he served as chief executive. PayPal is investing $400 million to improve and grow branded checkout this year.
“The payments industry is changing faster than ever, driven by new technologies, evolving regulations, an increasingly competitive landscape, and the rapid acceleration of AI that is reshaping commerce daily,” Lores said in a February statement. “PayPal sits at the center of this change, and I look forward to leading the team to accelerate the delivery of new innovations.”
PayPal has seen growth in its subsidiary Venmo, a social mobile payment app, and its buy-now-pay-later services. The company is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings in May.
“They’re going through some hard times, but I still think there’s a lot of value in PayPal,” Dolev said. “Not that many companies out there that have this kind of moat, which is a global wallet that everyone recognizes.”
Before PayPal transformed into a multibillion-dollar company with 23,800 employees and 439 million active consumer and merchant accounts across roughly 200 markets, the startup weathered a lot of change.
Founded in 1998 under a different company name by Max Levchin, Peter Thiel and Luke Nosek, the startup initially focused on security software for handheld devices before shifting to digital payments.
After merging with Elon Musk’s online bank X.com, the company was renamed PayPal. The platform made it possible for people to securely send money digitally using their email address, which was easier than writing up a check or filling out a money order.
PayPal went public in 2002 and shortly after EBay acquired the startup for $1.5 billion. In 2013, PayPal acquired the fintech company Braintree, which owned the social payment service Venmo, giving PayPal an edge in mobile commerce.
Two years later, it became an independent company when it split from EBay.
PayPal’s founders and early employees, dubbed the “PayPal Mafia” by Fortune magazine in a 2007 story, would go on to invest or build successful Silicon Valley companies.
During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, PayPal was flying high. People spent a lot of time stuck at home and online shopping skyrocketed. PayPal’s stock price peaked in July 2021, but has plummeted since then.
Over the last five years, its share price has dropped more than 80%.
“Now the industry is maturing, so there’s less growth to go around,” Broadbent said.
The competition is heating up, especially in the United States.
PayPal’s core users in the United States are projected to grow by fewer than 1% year-over-year to 92.1 million in 2026, eMarketer forecasts. Nationwide, Apple and Google are expected to see their digital wallet users grow more, reaching 90.5 million and 55 million U.S. users, respectively.
Apple Pay is popular among Gen Z and makes it easy to pay by double-clicking the side of their phone.
“They do so much more shopping on their phone than ever before, so Apple Pay is ingrained in their iPhone,” Broadbent said.
Google has also integrated its payment service into products such as its browser, Google Chrome. Then there are more buy-now-pay-later services that people are taking advantage of as they spread out their spending on expensive items.
Other challenges are on the horizon for payment services.
Tech companies are contending with the rise of artificial intelligence, which could disrupt the way people shop. Tech executives have talked about a future in which AI agents will shop and buy items on behalf of consumers, with their approval.
Last year, PayPal teamed up with AI company Perplexity so people could use its service to purchase products from retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch and Ashley Furniture within Perplexity’s chat interface.
“That’s a future challenge for PayPal that opens up a lot of different dynamics of who’s gonna win,” Broadbent said.
Business
Here’s How Much More You’re Spending on Gas Because of the Iran War
Since the war with Iran broke out, the average American household has spent an extra …
$190.47 on gasoline.
For many households, that is the equivalent of a month’s electricity bill.
Or a week’s worth of groceries for a couple.
The gasoline calculation is part of an analysis conducted by researchers at Brown University as they and others try to assess the economic costs of the prolonged fighting.
Calculating the cost of war — a skipped meal or a drive not made — is an imperfect science. But these estimates can offer a sense of how fighting far away can change behaviors large and small each day, disrupting American life.
Discomfort has not been spread evenly. As the price of gasoline has shot up, the national average is now …
$4.55 a gallon
In Illinois, it is more expensive …
$4.99 a gallon.
In California, it’s …
$6.13 a gallon.
Diesel, which is used to power factories and move most goods around the country, also quickly climbed.
Taken together, the amount of extra money Americans have collectively spent on gasoline and diesel since Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, is staggering:
$0.0 billion
Hunting for cheaper gas, Americans are going to Costcos and Sam’s Clubs more often to fill up their tanks.
Drivers visited Sam’s Club gas stations 18 percent more in the last week of April than the same time last year.
They are filling their tanks with less gas.
One gallon fewer at a time.
They are riding more subways and commuter trains.
They are using bike shares more often.
People rode more buses in March than before the war:
45 million more rides.
People are spending less on essentials.
More than 40 percent of people in a recent poll said they were spending less on groceries and medical care.
They are putting less into savings.
Richer households are spending a relatively small share of their income on gas:
2.7%.
Poorer households are spending far more:
4.2%.
This is not the first time in recent years that the economy has been shocked by war.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices spiked, sending gasoline soaring. At its peak, the national average was …
$5.02 a gallon.
Where things go this time around is anyone’s guess. When the war does end, it will still take weeks or months for energy supplies to level off.
Nearly three out of four goods move across the country by truck.
Many of those trucks are powered by diesel, making them much costlier to drive, and what’s inside them costlier for consumers.
Last month, a tomato cost …
40% more
than it did the same time last year.
More expensive fuel isn’t the only culprit for rising costs. Extreme weather, tariffs and other factors have forced prices up for many industries. Gasoline also becomes more expensive as the summer approaches.
But inflation last month rose at its fastest pace in nearly three years, and gasoline was among the fastest rising categories.
Business
Another California tech company lays off thousands
The layoffs bludgeoning the tech industry continued this week as artificial intelligence reshapes the industry.
Mountain View-based Intuit, the maker of TurboTax, on Wednesday said it was laying off 17% of its workforce, or about 3,000 employees, as part of its restructuring to cut costs and invest in artificial intelligence.
The company said it had slowed down due to “too many organizational layers” and the cuts will simplify the organization to become a “faster, leaner, more focused company.” Intuit said it will close its offices in Reno and Woodland Hills and incur an estimated $300 million to $340 million in restructuring charges.
“We believe we can serve more customers and deliver breakthrough products that fuel our customers’ success by reducing complexity and simplifying our structure,” Sasan Goodarzi, chief executive of Intuit, said in a memo shared with employees.
Intuit announced the layoffs on the same day it reported its third-quarter results, in which revenue jumped 10% from a year earlier, to $8.56 billion.
Intuit adds to the count of more than 114,000 tech-sector employees laid off this year, according to Layoffs.fyi.
Meta laid off 8,000 workers on Wednesday, as the company cuts costs to ramp up investment in AI agents and infrastructure. The ever-expanding list of tech companies that have cut jobs includes Coinbase, Amazon, LinkedIn and more. Some have cited productivity gains enabling fewer workers to accomplish more with AI, while others pointed out restructuring and cost-cutting to prepare for the AI disruption.
In an earnings call, Intuit‘s chief financial officer, Sandeep Aujla, said the cuts were intended to make the organization leaner, and weren’t tied directly to Intuit’s AI use.
“AI is an important part of how we’re evolving as a company, but these decisions were not driven by AI replacing employees,” an Intuit spokesperson reiterated in an email .
Best known for its TurboTax platform, Intuit has branched into accounting with QuickBooks, credit scoring through Credit Karma and email automation via Mailchimp. Facing increased competition for AI-driven tax solutions, the company is integrating AI across its entire portfolio.
“Our AI agents are delivering value at scale, with our accounting AI agents powering recommendations across more than 50 million transactions each week, and business tax AI agents identifying millions of dollars in deductions,” Goodarzi said in the earnings call.
The restructuring will reduce overlapping roles in TurboTax and Credit Karma as the company integrates both into a single team.
A deep sense of anxiety has settled in the tech job market, propelled by consecutive layoffs and coding tasks being automated by AI.
Tech leaders have portrayed the role of human software engineers as a human in the loop, overseeing and verifying AI agents that do the work of coders.
By 2027, software developers are expected to see a 3% job contraction due to AI coding capabilities, according to Labor Automation Forecasting Hub by Metaculus, a popular website where forecasters predict how AI will reshape the workforce.
Business
Older AC and fridge chemicals amp up climate change. Trump just rolled back limits on them
President Trump on Thursday announced that grocery stories and air conditioning companies will be allowed to keep using high-polluting refrigerants for longer than they would have under a law he signed during his first administration.
“This was a tremendous burden, a tremendous cost,” said Trump, surrounded in the Oval Office by executives from supermarket chains including Kroger, Fairway, Neimann Foods and Piggly Wiggly. “It was making the equipment unaffordable, and the actual benefit was nothing.”
The move loosens rules meant to restrict hydroflourocarbons, a class of climate-damaging chemicals used in cooling equipment. HFCs are known as “super pollutants” because their impact on climate change can be tens of thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide during their shorter lifespans.
In the move Thursday, the Environmental Protection Agency extends the deadline for companies to comply with a 2023 rule transitioning refrigerators and air conditioners off HFCs and onto new cooling technologies. Reducing these chemicals and moving to cleaner refrigerants has long been a bipartisan issue.
Trump is also proposing exemptions from a rule requiring leak repairs on large-scale refrigeration systems.
The administration framed the changes as part of its effort to bring down high grocery costs. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said the actions will save $2.4 billion for Americans and safeguard 350,000 jobs.
“Americans who wanted to be able to fix their equipment were instead being required to buy far more costly new equipment and that just doesn’t make any sense,” said Zeldin.
David Doniger, senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the move will not only harm the climate, but U.S. competitiveness in global refrigerant markets as well.
“The EPA is catering to a small group of straggling companies by derailing the shift away from these climate super-pollutants,” he said. “The industry at large supports the HFC phasedown and has already invested in making new refrigerants and equipment, currently installed in thousands of stores.”
Danielle Wright, executive director of the North American Sustainable Refrigeration Council, an environmental nonprofit, said any perceived near-term savings from the rollbacks will be outweighed by the future costs.
“Business owners are far more worried about the escalating cost of keeping aging, high‑global-warming-potential equipment running than they are about the cost of installing new, compliant systems,” she said.
Trump dismissed the climate concerns, saying his changes “are not going to have any impact on the environment.”
He said he wants to get rid of the technology transition rule entirely in the future.
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