Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada presented a budget update on Tuesday showing that his government’s deficit would be less than projected last fall and that the country’s economy would most likely grow over the coming year despite several key industries being buffeted by President Trump’s tariffs.

The spring economic update, a mini budget of sorts, came exactly one year after Mr. Carney returned the Liberal Party to power in his first political campaign and a few weeks after special elections and defections to the Liberals by members of other parties gave him a majority and the voting control of Parliament he had been denied in that election.

But if Mr. Carney intends to use his newfound political control to change direction, there was no indication. Instead, the update underscored his broad push to reduce Canada’s economic dependence on the United States by expanding trade with other countries and cutting government spending in some areas to expand military spending and large infrastructure projects like pipelines and nuclear power reactors.

“The world has been more uncertain than ever, but despite that, the Canadian economy has been resilient,” François-Philippe Champagne, the finance minister, told reporters on Tuesday. “We’re definitely entering a new world order.”

Mr. Carney, the former central banker of Canada and England, was an investment executive until he moved into politics last year. At that time, the Conservatives seemed certain to win the election to come. Justin Trudeau, the Liberal leader at the time, had become unpopular after more than nine years in office, and his government was seen as profligate by many voters.

But Mr. Carney’s background in finance reversed the party’s fortunes when voters appeared to be searching for stability in the midst of Mr. Trump’s trade war on Canada and his calls to turn the country into the 51st U.S. state.

Since then, Mr. Carney has, publicly at least, appeared to largely operate as his own finance minister. He again upstaged Mr. Champagne this week by announcing the only major change to be found in the update. On Monday, Mr. Carney said that Canada would set up a sovereign wealth fund like those found in Norway and several oil-rich nations in the Middle East. While the fund of 26 billion Canadian dollars, about $19 billion, is considerably smaller than those other countries’ pools of money, Canadians will be able to invest their own money in Canada’s new projects.

The update clarified that the 26 billion Canadian dollars will be pulled out of the government’s general revenues over the next three years.

The only other significant measure outlined in the update was a plan to spend 2 billion Canadian dollars, or $1.5 billion, to train 80,000 to 100,000 people in skilled construction jobs, and an additional 3.4 billion Canadian dollars, or about $2.5 billion, to fund apprenticeships.

That program follows similar efforts by the federal government and provinces going back several years to deal with Canada’s chronic shortage of construction workers.

Mr. Champagne said that previous efforts had been fragmented but that the new program would be more comprehensive.

“How many people know all these programs and all these agencies?” he said.

The document also forecast that, despite declines in the jobs-heavy automotive, steel, aluminum and forestry industries brought on by American tariffs, the economy would grow by 2 percent this year. Last year, it reached 1.7 percent after falling by 0.6 percent in the final three months.

The government said that it now expected the deficit for the current fiscal year, which began this month, to be 67 billion Canadian dollars, 11 billion dollars less than it had anticipated in the November budget.

While the recent spike in oil prices is being felt by Canadian motorists, air travelers and many industries, it is benefiting Canada’s oil industry and increasing tax revenues as well as employment in that sector. Overall, the government now expects its revenues to be 9 billion Canadian dollars higher than forecast in part because fewer people are likely to lose their jobs.

In the months since November’s budget, it remains unclear exactly what jobs and programs will be lost to budget cuts. And the government has introduced a variety of new spending measures like the investment fund and a temporary removal of a federal tax on gasoline and diesel fuel to partly offset the recent price hikes.

Mr. Champagne repeatedly said that the deficit remained low relative to other industrialized nations and that the government was “fiscally prudent” and careful where it cut.

“By spending less, we can invest more in the things that really matter to Canadians,” he said.

Andrew here. We’ve got an exclusive on Barry Diller’s plan to overhaul IAC and change its name to People.

We’re also looking at whether the criminal case against Jay Powell is really over, and whether OpenAI has fallen behind its own expectations — and what that would mean for its race to go public. More below.

Is OpenAI falling further behind?

Until yesterday, the conversation around OpenAI was about Elon Musk’s lawsuit against the artificial intelligence giant.

But OpenAI may have bigger problems.

A new report raises questions about the ambitious spending plans of its C.E.O., Sam Altman, and the company’s standing in the A.I. race.

OpenAI has missed its user and revenue targets, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing anonymous sources. Internally, it had sought to hit one billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025, a goal it still hasn’t announced, and has seen users defect to rivals.

Sarah Friar, its C.F.O., has told fellow executives that she’s worried about paying for future computing contracts at the current business trajectory, The Journal adds, while directors have been re-examining its data center plans.

Altman and Friar told The Journal that any suggestion that the company would pull back on computing power investments was “ridiculous.”

The reporting amplifies worries that OpenAI is losing ground, as Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude take more market share, especially in the hugely important enterprise market.

The company last week introduced an A.I. model that it says outperforms on many benchmarks. And it has redoubled efforts to make its Codex A.I. coding tool more competitive against Anthropic’s Claude Code.

Why that matters: Altman has embraced hugely expensive ambitions to expand the company’s computing capacity. But OpenAI has had to pull back on building its own expansive data center clusters, given pushback from potential lenders.

If it’s falling further behind on business goals, that could further constrain OpenAI’s growth initiatives.

OpenAI is already taking a risk by revamping its relationship with Microsoft, historically its biggest backer. The two companies said on Monday that OpenAI would now be free to provide its models on other cloud providers, but that it also would trim a key revenue-sharing arrangement with Microsoft.

OpenAI says it now has more business flexibility. But Martin Peers of The Information questioned that premise, since it’s unclear whether Amazon’s AWS customers would be willing to switch over from Claude.

What about the I.P.O.? Remember that some executives want to take the company public by year end. Is that still possible? (Shares of companies linked to OpenAI, including SoftBank and Oracle, were down on The Journal’s report.)

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

A man accused in the White House correspondents’ dinner attack is charged. Federal prosecutors formally accused Cole Tomas Allen of trying to assassinate President Trump; a note that the authorities said had been written by him appeared to express anger about the administration. Some Republicans in Congress amplified Trump’s claim that the episode strengthened his desire for a White House ballroom.

Oil prices climb as Trump spurns Iran’s latest offer. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, surpassed $111 on Tuesday after the president on Monday said he was unsatisfied with Tehran’s proposal, which called for resuming full ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — including the end of a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports — but left unresolved the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, officials said.

Shares in Bayer fall after a setback at the Supreme Court. Some justices appeared skeptical on Monday of the German conglomerate’s argument, backed by the Trump administration, that state-level lawsuits over the safety of its Roundup weedkiller should be barred. The E.P.A. has ruled Roundup as safe; a Supreme Court ruling could complicate product safety regulations in the U.S.

Diller remakes his empire

Barry Diller is hitting the reset button. Again.

The media mogul plans to announce on Tuesday a broad overhaul of IAC, his digital media empire, DealBook is first to report. Its holding company will rename itself People, after its magazine empire, which will become a bigger focus of operations. And it will lean heavily into its 26 percent stake in MGM.

In the current evolution of the e-commerce market, Diller told DealBook in an interview, new opportunities in areas in which IAC has historically invested big — including online search and marketplaces — became few and far between.

Don’t call this a sunset for Diller’s empire. The media mogul pushed back against the idea that he’s winding down the business. “That’s exactly what they said the last time this happened,” he said. “I like that it’s good clay.”

In a memo to employees seen by DealBook, Diller summed up the company’s evolution over about 30 years, from an owner of local TV stations to support the Home Shopping Network into what it is today:

I bought into little Silver King Communications in 1995. It had about $40 million in sales, and as it evolved over the next decades, we became HSN, then USA Networks and finally, in 2003, IAC/Interactive Corp, and then even more simply, IAC Inc.

People, the company, will get leaner, as it shifts to a focused media conglomerate from a sprawling digital one:

• It will cut 77 positions, and some high-level executives like its C.F.O., Christopher Halpin, and its chief legal officer, Kendall Handler, will depart. The company employs about 3,500 people.

• The existing leadership team at its People division, led by Neil Vogel, will take the reins of the parent company.

• The company expects to generate about $40 million in annual savings.

Diller is particularly excited about what he calls “inversions,” big investments People can make in branded products and services, based on its magazine titles. Instead of licensing brands to others, he sees an opportunity to build or buy businesses that take advantage of the authority of People’s publications.

And while Diller-owned titles like People and Southern Living may not have the same sparkle as Condé Nast’s magazines, they’re significantly larger and more profitable.

The bottom line: Diller’s management philosophy of “getting smaller to get bigger” will be tested once more.

Powell and the Pirro factor

The criminal investigation trailing Jay Powell, the Fed chair, has been quieted — at least for now.

But will that be enough to end the succession drama hanging over the central bank? On that matter, Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney in Washington, is worth watching, legal experts told Niko Gallogly.

Recap: On Friday, Pirro said the Justice Department would drop its investigation into Powell over his handling of the $2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s headquarters.

The move mollified Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, who has a key vote on the Senate Banking Committee. He had threatened to withhold support for the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick to lead the Fed, until the investigation was closed.

What stands in the way of Pirro reopening an inquiry? Very little, legal experts say. “A U.S. attorney has exceptionally broad discretion to open and close investigations,” Jonathan Shaub, a professor at the University of Kentucky’s law school, told DealBook. “Once they’ve gotten the confirmation through, if they want to reopen it, she could do that.”

Another factor: Pirro, a Trump loyalist, could continue the investigation in secrecy. “Pirro has the discretion to say whatever she wants on the record, but do the opposite behind the scenes,” Jed Shugerman, a law professor at Boston University, told DealBook.

It’s worth noting that Pirro has said she would “not hesitate” to reopen the investigation. And Todd Blanche, the acting attorney general, signaled in an interview with NBC on “Meet the Press” on Sunday that the investigation remained active, though, as he said, it will now be handled by the inspector general.

The big threat remains. Dropping the investigation “gives cover” to Tillis to advance Warsh’s nomination, but it does little to stop the Trump administration’s attacks on the Fed, Shugerman said. “In reality, President Trump’s threats against Powell” and the administration’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, “are bells that cannot be unrung.”

Central bank watchers fear that Trump’s threats to Fed independence could weaken the institution. Now all eyes are on Powell, as Fed policymakers convene their two-day meeting on Tuesday. Will Powell stay, or will he go?

Guyana’s wartime oil boom

The energy shock wrought by the war in the Middle East has established winners and losers across the globe, and thrust some countries into an outsize role in international markets.

Tiny, oil-rich Guyana is one. The South American country has become a surprising power player amid the war’s upheaval, Vivienne Walt reports.

The nation’s president, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, has been courted by President Trump, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. On Friday, Wall Street will focus on how Guyana factors into Big Oil’s profit push, when Exxon Mobil and Chevron report first-quarter results.

Exxon is so far the biggest winner in Guyana’s bonanza. It made a giant discovery in 2015 in the country’s offshore Stabroek block, which holds an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and gas — enough to keep producing for decades. Exxon has a 45 percent controlling stake in the project, alongside Chevron (through its acquisition last year of Hess) and a Chinese producer, CNOOC.

As of late 2025, the consortium was producing more than 900,000 barrels of oil a day. Exxon forecasts capacity could expand to 1.7 million barrels per day by 2030.

“Guyana is going to be a very, very important part of Exxon’s business in the region,” Roxanna Vigil, a regional expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DealBook.

Others are muscling in. Guyana has asked Indian companies to bid on new drilling sites when they come up for auction this year. The country has made it clear that it wants closer ties with New Delhi, which has helped build roads and a stadium for cricket-crazed Guyanese. Negotiations between the countries to build Guyana’s first refinery are underway.

Last decade, Exxon and Hess secured deals in which they pay the government of Guyana a relatively small royalty fee of 2 percent. It’s unlikely that new partners, including India, will get similar terms. “We have learned from the mistake,” Ali told DealBook in a 2024 interview.

Another issue hanging over Guyana: Venezuela has a decades-old claim over about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, including some of Stabroek. That dispute is expected to go to trial in the International Court of Justice next month.

The verdict will be widely watched, as it could determine control of some of the richest oil fields in the region — and which oil producers reap the profits.

THE SPEED READ

Deals

• Shell agreed to buy ARC Resources, a Canadian shale oil and gas producer, for $13.6 billion, the oil giant’s biggest deal in more than a decade. (Bloomberg)

• Silver Rock Capital Partners, a spinoff from Michael Milken’s family office, has raised more than $4 billion for a private credit fund. (FT)

Technology and artificial intelligence

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