Business
Commentary: A proposed new ‘fix’ for Social Security that harms workers and protects the rich
How worried are America’s wealthy about the possibility they’ll be hit with a higher tax for Social Security?
Plenty, judging from the endless creativity of their proposals to improve the program’s fiscal condition by cutting benefits rather than raising revenue (typically from our most affluent taxpayers).
The latest run at this fence comes from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which as I’ve explained before is an offspring of the late billionaire hedge fund operator Peter G. Peterson, who was an obdurate foe of Social Security. The committee dubs its proposal the “Six Figure Limit,” which is accurate enough: It would cap annual Social Security benefits at $50,000 per person, or $100,000 per couple.
The $100,000 amount will continue to erode to the point that it is a subsistence level benefit unrelated to prior earnings, just as conservatives have been advocating since 1936.
— Nancy Altman, Social Security Works
Make no mistake: This is a benefit cut. It’s part and parcel of the enduring Republican and conservative project to protect their rich patrons from paying taxes to cover their fair share of the costs of social programs.
As recently as a White House event Wednesday, President Trump revived the old “guns or butter” debate—it was Lyndon Johnson who said during the Vietnam War that the country could afford both, but Trump stated that as long as “we’re fighting wars…it’s not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things.”
Trump said those programs should be taken up by the states, which would have to raise their own taxes, allowing the federal government to “lower our taxes.”
The committee claims its proposal would affect only the richest, but that’s true only as a snapshot of current conditions. About 1.2 million of the 53.6 million retirees receiving benefits today, or about 2.3%, receive enough from Social Security to breach the $50,000 annual cap.
Typically they’re retirees who earned the maximum taxable wage income — $184,500 this year — almost every year of their work careers, and also opted to defer receiving their benefits until age 70 to receive a higher monthly stipend. Thanks mostly to inflation, however, the cap will creep into the middle class as sure as water seeks its own level; that may take years, but by the time today’s youngest workers retire, it would be entrenched in the system.
The proposal reflects one of Pete Peterson’s hobby horses, which was the idea that scads of money could be saved by means-testing Social Security so billionaires like himself don’t get handouts they don’t need.
The Six Figure Limit reads like a stepchild of that notion, but as I’ve reported before, the problem with it is that means-testing Social Security wouldn’t save the program much money unless you started cutting means-tested benefits at incomes as small as $50,000.
The CRFB’s proposal, as embodied in an explanatory manifesto posted on its website, doesn’t explain why $100,000 should be the cutoff, other than that maybe it’s a nice round number.
“This is a program that, when you go back to its founding, was a measure of protection against falling into poverty,” Marc Goldwein, the committee’s senior policy director, told CBS News. “The fact that an income support program would pay six figures is a little silly.”
I asked the committee what’s “silly” about a couple receiving $100,000 from Social Security after they’ve paid for it all their working lives, and given that U.S. median household income was $1,071 when Social Security was founded in 1935 and today it’s $83,730. I didn’t hear back.
The committee acknowledges that only “a small fraction of retirees” currently receive benefits of $50,000 or more today. But it frets that “$100,000 benefits will become increasingly common as Social Security’s benefit formula leads benefits to grow over time.” This isn’t quite true: It’s economic growth, more than the benefit formula, that does that, by advancing average wages.
Social Security advocates and experts have responded to the proposal with disdain. Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, labels it a “Trojan horse.”
That’s because of its proposed structure. The committee presents three possible models: Two would fix the cutoff at $50,000 per person for 20 or 30 years. The third would allow it to increase in accordance with the chained consumer price index, a little-used inflation metric that rises more slowly than the commonly used urban CPI.
Either way, Altman observes, “the $100,000 amount will continue to erode to the point that it is a subsistence level benefit unrelated to prior earnings, just as conservatives have been advocating since 1936.”
The CRFB manifesto is a scary document. It asserts that the cap would be a boon for economic growth by reducing federal borrowing and prompting retirees to rely more on resources such as personal savings and investment returns.
This happens, it says, according to “a large body of research” finding that “workers — especially high-income workers — increase their private retirement savings in response to reductions in expected public pension benefits.” In other words, if you’re afraid your Social Security is going to be cut, you put more in your IRA.
That makes sense, but only superficially. First, what about everyone other than “high-income workers”? Many middle- and working class households already struggle to meet common everyday expenses, let alone saving for college and retirement. Where will they find the money they’ll need once Social Security is gutted?
Second, who says workers invariably save more when they’re afraid of Social Security cuts? The committee footnotes this assertion to a Congressional Budget Office meta-analysis of 30 studies, conducted in 1998. What did the CBO learn? It was that no one knows.
Some studies, the CBO said, found that each dollar of expected Social Security reduces personal savings, but the range of reduction was “between zero and 50 cents.” In other words, the phenomenon may or may not be real. And if not, this pillar of the Six Figure Limit crumbles to dust. People will be thrown back on personal resources that don’t exist.
The CRFB manifesto contains other specious arguments. For example, it argues that America’s Social Security benefits are unduly generous in global terms. It validates this conclusion by comparing the maximum benefit in the U.S. in 2024 ($93,452 for a couple) to those of such other advanced economies as France ($69,403 in purchasing parity with the U.S.), Canada ($43,608) and the Netherlands ($41,765).
Yet the comparisons are suspect. National pension systems are highly diverse. France’s social security program, for example, is a mandatory supplement to private pensions, unlike in the U.S. In some countries, old-age benefits are part of broad social programs that include universal government-paid healthcare as well as government child care and other social services that don’t exist in the U.S. I asked the CRFB to respond to these issues, but received no reply.
It’s important to keep in mind that proposals like this have one fundamental goal: sparing the wealthy from an increase in their Social Security payroll tax, which is the only way to ensure the program’s fiscal feet stand on dry ground other than cutting benefits.
This year, the tax of 12.4% is levied on wage income up to $184,500, with half paid out of worker paychecks and half directly by employers. That means workers will pay a maximum $11,439, with employers paying the same.
On wages higher than the income tax cap, the rate drops to zero. For someone with income of, say, $500,000, the effective rate for each side falls from 6.2% to about 4.3%; for those with $1-million incomes, it falls to 2.28% on each side. Since the tax is on wage income alone, wealthier taxpayers get an additional break — half of the income or more for the richest Americans is in the form of investment income, which isn’t taxed at all for Social Security.
Making such so-called unearned income part of their tax base and eliminating the tax cap would improve Social Security’s fiscal balance far more than the Six Figure Limit, but that would significantly increase the Social Security tax liability of millionaires and near-millionaires. That may explain why their cat’s paws in Congress and at conservative think tanks expend so much energy finding alternatives to a tax hike.
It’s tempting to relegate this latest idea to the pile of transparent maneuvers to avert a higher Social Security tax, but the danger is that policymakers and pundits will parrot the argument that $100,000 is just too much for a retirement pension. The Washington Post editorial board started the process on March 24 with an unsigned editorial headlined, “Nobody needs over $100,000 per year in Social Security benefits.”
The piece balanced the putative generosity of Social Security against the federal government’s $39-trillion debt and a federal deficit “larger than during the Great Depression,” as though those are the consequences of providing for 53 million retirees, disabled persons and their dependents, rather than enormous tax cuts provided for the wealthy. The Post’s owner, Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, is one of the richest men on Earth.
Anyway, the Post’s screed elicited a well-deserved beat-down from Max Richtman, president of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, who crisply informed the board that its editorial was “based on the fallacy that Social Security is a welfare program. It is, in fact, social insurance.”
As he explained, “workers pay into the program and receive payments to replace income upon retirement, disability or the death of a family breadwinner. These are the ‘hazards and vicissitudes of life’ that President Franklin D. Roosevelt referred to when signing Social Security into law.”
Richtman is right about Social Security, and the CRFB is wrong. For the beneficiaries who have been saved from poverty in their old age or after disability, the difference is more than rhetorical. It’s a fact of life.
Business
Is OpenAI Falling Further Behind in the A.I. Race?
Andrew here. We’ve got an exclusive on Barry Diller’s plan to overhaul IAC and change its name to People.
We’re also looking at whether the criminal case against Jay Powell is really over, and whether OpenAI has fallen behind its own expectations — and what that would mean for its race to go public. More below.
Is OpenAI falling further behind?
Until yesterday, the conversation around OpenAI was about Elon Musk’s lawsuit against the artificial intelligence giant.
But OpenAI may have bigger problems.
A new report raises questions about the ambitious spending plans of its C.E.O., Sam Altman, and the company’s standing in the A.I. race.
OpenAI has missed its user and revenue targets, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing anonymous sources. Internally, it had sought to hit one billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025, a goal it still hasn’t announced, and has seen users defect to rivals.
Sarah Friar, its C.F.O., has told fellow executives that she’s worried about paying for future computing contracts at the current business trajectory, The Journal adds, while directors have been re-examining its data center plans.
Altman and Friar told The Journal that any suggestion that the company would pull back on computing power investments was “ridiculous.”
The reporting amplifies worries that OpenAI is losing ground, as Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude take more market share, especially in the hugely important enterprise market.
The company last week introduced an A.I. model that it says outperforms on many benchmarks. And it has redoubled efforts to make its Codex A.I. coding tool more competitive against Anthropic’s Claude Code.
Why that matters: Altman has embraced hugely expensive ambitions to expand the company’s computing capacity. But OpenAI has had to pull back on building its own expansive data center clusters, given pushback from potential lenders.
If it’s falling further behind on business goals, that could further constrain OpenAI’s growth initiatives.
OpenAI is already taking a risk by revamping its relationship with Microsoft, historically its biggest backer. The two companies said on Monday that OpenAI would now be free to provide its models on other cloud providers, but that it also would trim a key revenue-sharing arrangement with Microsoft.
OpenAI says it now has more business flexibility. But Martin Peers of The Information questioned that premise, since it’s unclear whether Amazon’s AWS customers would be willing to switch over from Claude.
What about the I.P.O.? Remember that some executives want to take the company public by year end. Is that still possible? (Shares of companies linked to OpenAI, including SoftBank and Oracle, were down on The Journal’s report.)
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
A man accused in the White House correspondents’ dinner attack is charged. Federal prosecutors formally accused Cole Tomas Allen of trying to assassinate President Trump; a note that the authorities said had been written by him appeared to express anger about the administration. Some Republicans in Congress amplified Trump’s claim that the episode strengthened his desire for a White House ballroom.
Oil prices climb as Trump spurns Iran’s latest offer. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, surpassed $111 on Tuesday after the president on Monday said he was unsatisfied with Tehran’s proposal, which called for resuming full ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — including the end of a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports — but left unresolved the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, officials said.
Shares in Bayer fall after a setback at the Supreme Court. Some justices appeared skeptical on Monday of the German conglomerate’s argument, backed by the Trump administration, that state-level lawsuits over the safety of its Roundup weedkiller should be barred. The E.P.A. has ruled Roundup as safe; a Supreme Court ruling could complicate product safety regulations in the U.S.
Diller remakes his empire
Barry Diller is hitting the reset button. Again.
The media mogul plans to announce on Tuesday a broad overhaul of IAC, his digital media empire, DealBook is first to report. Its holding company will rename itself People, after its magazine empire, which will become a bigger focus of operations. And it will lean heavily into its 26 percent stake in MGM.
In the current evolution of the e-commerce market, Diller told DealBook in an interview, new opportunities in areas in which IAC has historically invested big — including online search and marketplaces — became few and far between.
Don’t call this a sunset for Diller’s empire. The media mogul pushed back against the idea that he’s winding down the business. “That’s exactly what they said the last time this happened,” he said. “I like that it’s good clay.”
In a memo to employees seen by DealBook, Diller summed up the company’s evolution over about 30 years, from an owner of local TV stations to support the Home Shopping Network into what it is today:
I bought into little Silver King Communications in 1995. It had about $40 million in sales, and as it evolved over the next decades, we became HSN, then USA Networks and finally, in 2003, IAC/Interactive Corp, and then even more simply, IAC Inc.
People, the company, will get leaner, as it shifts to a focused media conglomerate from a sprawling digital one:
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It will cut 77 positions, and some high-level executives like its C.F.O., Christopher Halpin, and its chief legal officer, Kendall Handler, will depart. The company employs about 3,500 people.
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The existing leadership team at its People division, led by Neil Vogel, will take the reins of the parent company.
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The company expects to generate about $40 million in annual savings.
Diller is particularly excited about what he calls “inversions,” big investments People can make in branded products and services, based on its magazine titles. Instead of licensing brands to others, he sees an opportunity to build or buy businesses that take advantage of the authority of People’s publications.
And while Diller-owned titles like People and Southern Living may not have the same sparkle as Condé Nast’s magazines, they’re significantly larger and more profitable.
The bottom line: Diller’s management philosophy of “getting smaller to get bigger” will be tested once more.
Powell and the Pirro factor
The criminal investigation trailing Jay Powell, the Fed chair, has been quieted — at least for now.
But will that be enough to end the succession drama hanging over the central bank? On that matter, Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney in Washington, is worth watching, legal experts told Niko Gallogly.
Recap: On Friday, Pirro said the Justice Department would drop its investigation into Powell over his handling of the $2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s headquarters.
The move mollified Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, who has a key vote on the Senate Banking Committee. He had threatened to withhold support for the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick to lead the Fed, until the investigation was closed.
What stands in the way of Pirro reopening an inquiry? Very little, legal experts say. “A U.S. attorney has exceptionally broad discretion to open and close investigations,” Jonathan Shaub, a professor at the University of Kentucky’s law school, told DealBook. “Once they’ve gotten the confirmation through, if they want to reopen it, she could do that.”
Another factor: Pirro, a Trump loyalist, could continue the investigation in secrecy. “Pirro has the discretion to say whatever she wants on the record, but do the opposite behind the scenes,” Jed Shugerman, a law professor at Boston University, told DealBook.
It’s worth noting that Pirro has said she would “not hesitate” to reopen the investigation. And Todd Blanche, the acting attorney general, signaled in an interview with NBC on “Meet the Press” on Sunday that the investigation remained active, though, as he said, it will now be handled by the inspector general.
The big threat remains. Dropping the investigation “gives cover” to Tillis to advance Warsh’s nomination, but it does little to stop the Trump administration’s attacks on the Fed, Shugerman said. “In reality, President Trump’s threats against Powell” and the administration’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, “are bells that cannot be unrung.”
Central bank watchers fear that Trump’s threats to Fed independence could weaken the institution. Now all eyes are on Powell, as Fed policymakers convene their two-day meeting on Tuesday. Will Powell stay, or will he go?
Guyana’s wartime oil boom
The energy shock wrought by the war in the Middle East has established winners and losers across the globe, and thrust some countries into an outsize role in international markets.
Tiny, oil-rich Guyana is one. The South American country has become a surprising power player amid the war’s upheaval, Vivienne Walt reports.
The nation’s president, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, has been courted by President Trump, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. On Friday, Wall Street will focus on how Guyana factors into Big Oil’s profit push, when Exxon Mobil and Chevron report first-quarter results.
Exxon is so far the biggest winner in Guyana’s bonanza. It made a giant discovery in 2015 in the country’s offshore Stabroek block, which holds an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil and gas — enough to keep producing for decades. Exxon has a 45 percent controlling stake in the project, alongside Chevron (through its acquisition last year of Hess) and a Chinese producer, CNOOC.
As of late 2025, the consortium was producing more than 900,000 barrels of oil a day. Exxon forecasts capacity could expand to 1.7 million barrels per day by 2030.
“Guyana is going to be a very, very important part of Exxon’s business in the region,” Roxanna Vigil, a regional expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DealBook.
Others are muscling in. Guyana has asked Indian companies to bid on new drilling sites when they come up for auction this year. The country has made it clear that it wants closer ties with New Delhi, which has helped build roads and a stadium for cricket-crazed Guyanese. Negotiations between the countries to build Guyana’s first refinery are underway.
Last decade, Exxon and Hess secured deals in which they pay the government of Guyana a relatively small royalty fee of 2 percent. It’s unlikely that new partners, including India, will get similar terms. “We have learned from the mistake,” Ali told DealBook in a 2024 interview.
Another issue hanging over Guyana: Venezuela has a decades-old claim over about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, including some of Stabroek. That dispute is expected to go to trial in the International Court of Justice next month.
The verdict will be widely watched, as it could determine control of some of the richest oil fields in the region — and which oil producers reap the profits.
THE SPEED READ
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Technology and artificial intelligence
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We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.
Business
California drone maker to spend billions of dollars as it expands manufacturing in the state
A Californian drone manufacturer plans to pour billions of dollars into the defense technology industry, which is booming in the state.
The San Mateo-based company, Skydio, will invest $3.5 billion in domestic manufacturing over the next five years, the company announced Friday.
Defense technology operations, along with aerospace and artificial intelligence, have flocked to California, even as retail and fast-food chains bail out of the Golden State.
The funding is meant to expand the country’s domestic manufacturing of drone technology over the next five years. The company plans to create more than 2,000 new jobs and support the development of over 3,000 more U.S.-based positions across the industry.
The company expects most new jobs will be California-based, though some will be with its American suppliers, a Skydio spokesperson told The Times on Monday.
The investment comes during a time when demand for autonomous drones is at an all-time high. The investment is part of the company’s broader efforts “to ensure the future of flight is built in America,” according to the company’s news release.
In the U.S. and elsewhere, the drone market has been largely dominated by Chinese companies and companies dependent on Chinese parts. Skydio says it is trying to change that.
“U.S. innovation invented the airplane, ramped up manufacturing to win WWII, put a man on the moon, broke the sound barrier, and commercialized space travel,” Adam Byr, company co-founder and chief executive, said in the release. “American companies can compete and win in the civilian drone market against products from our adversaries.”
Skydio plans to open a U.S. manufacturing facility that is five times larger than its current San Francisco Bay Area space.
Skydio is one of the biggest drone makers outside of China. It says it is supplying flying robots to more than a thousand public safety agencies in the country, every branch of the U.S. military and 29 allied nations.
California’s economy reached a record $4.25 trillion last year, despite claims that the state is bleeding business. Business leaders of popular chains, including the state’s own In-N-Out, have heavily criticized California’s high taxes and stringent regulations.
The company exodus, however, has been outpaced by the number of businesses moving into the state, which is home to almost 400 billion-dollar startups, according to CB Insights.
Hermeus, a hypersonic aircraft company, recently announced its move to El Segundo, joining aerospace companies such as True Anomaly and Voyager Technologies that recently opened plants in Long Beach.
Skydio’s investment will pour $1 billion into boosting domestic production of vital parts and components used to build drones.
Skydio has warned against relying on international suppliers after the drone maker was cut off from its supply of Chinese batteries when it was blacklisted by Beijing in October, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The Chinese government used supply chains as a weapon to advance the country’s interests, Bry said in a blog post.
“No Western drone manufacturer is safe,” he wrote.
Business
The Rise of the High-Range, Less Expensive E.V.
It’s a weird moment for electric vehicles in the United States. Sales have fallen since the Trump administration ended the $7,500 tax credit, and car manufacturers are canceling models. And while it’s likely that the recent surge in gas prices will push more people to E.V.s, it probably won’t happen fast.
But if there’s a bright spot in the E.V. market, it’s the budget, high-range car — a corner of the market that’s growing in number of models and, in some cases, even in sales.
E.V.s under $40,000 can now go as far as the most expensive models of a decade ago.
Range anxiety has long been a sticking point for potential E.V. owners, especially in winter. Most people don’t need to drive far every day, but they want to know they can make the occasional big trip.
For a long time, price and range were highly correlated: More expensive models went much farther on one charge. That’s not the case anymore. Some expensive cars have estimated ranges above 400 miles — notably some Lucid and Rivian models — but others offer less range than cars $50,000 cheaper.
Range and price aren’t everyone’s top criteria — there are charging speeds, horsepower, reliability, aesthetics, size and more to consider. But if your primary concern is just how far the car can get you on a single charge without breaking the bank, consider this unusual but useful metric: miles of range per dollar spent.
At a starting price of $32,000, the 2026 Nissan Leaf gets nearly 10 miles of total range for every $1,000 of sticker price, with Chevrolet’s $37,000 Equinox EV close behind. The most expensive E.V.s score much worse on this metric — three miles per $1,000 or fewer — but they’re luxury cars.
(Note that price and range vary even for a single model, depending on the trim; we looked at the cheapest price and longest range for each car and picked the one with the highest ratio of miles to dollars.)
Just five years ago, the best cars in this metric couldn’t top six miles per $1,000. (After adjusting for inflation.)
A big part of that trajectory is battery technology: Prices for lithium-ion batteries, the primary type used for E.V.s, have fallen to around $100 per kilowatt-hour in 2025, from $1,000 in the early 2010s, according to BloombergNEF. Battery density has gone up too.
As battery costs fell and manufacturers built more E.V.s, ranges rose and prices fell. Tesla’s cheapest Model 3 climbed to a range of 321 miles this year, up from 220 when it was launched in the late 2010s, while its inflation-adjusted price decreased.
Or consider the Leaf, which debuted 15 years ago.
By 2016, the cheapest Leaf had 84 miles of range and cost around $30,000, the equivalent of $40,000 today.
Nissan’s $32,000 2026 Leaf has a range of more than 300 miles.
Some automakers have released entirely new models under $40,000 in recent years, including the Chevrolet Equinox and the Subaru Uncharted. And the end of the tax credit led others to drop prices on existing cars: Tesla introduced a trimmed-down, significantly cheaper Model 3, and Hyundai slashed its Ioniq 5 prices by roughly the same amount as the credit.
Altogether, the cheaper end of the market has boomed, and the average price of a new E.V. has fallen. (Used E.V. prices fell, too, and sales climbed.)
There’s still a lot of bad E.V. news among automakers, who have canceled models and pulled back on battery manufacturing. New E.V. sales dropped 27 percent from early 2025 to early 2026. But models that offered a high-range, lower-price trim seemed to weather the downturn better — some of them even picked up in sales, while others held relatively steady despite the end of the tax credit.
New E.V.s still can’t beat new gas cars on sticker price and range. A standard Toyota Corolla can go more than 400 miles on a tank of gas, and costs around $25,000.
Still, the costs of driving a gas car add up: If gas prices settled back to $3.50 per gallon, that relatively efficient Corolla would cost more than $1,100 for the average driver each year, and about the same in maintenance. Over a decade, that would total nearly $50,000. (Car purchase included.)
The $32,000 Leaf would cost around $600 each year to drive, at average U.S. electricity prices, and about the same in maintenance, according to federal estimates. It would add up to $45,000 over the decade.
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