World
Analysis: Concerns raised in Brussels over EU-Tunisia migration pact
Concerns are increasing in Brussels over the July migration pact agreed between the European Union and Tunisia with analysts saying European aid is increasingly being used to prop up authoritarian and autocratic leaders in North Africa.
The EU Ombudsman’s office asked the European Commission how it intends to monitor the rights of those affected and what assessment was made of its impact on rights before its signing.
The deal will see the EU give Tunisia 100 million euros ($106.6m) to combat undocumented immigration.
However, the agreement with Tunisia, pitched at the time as a breakthrough in the bloc’s dealings with irregular migration, has instead benefited leaders who actively restrict their citizens’ rights in return for the promise of energy deals and draconian, and frequently violent restrictions, on refugees and migrants, analysts say.
“Look at the facts,” Amine Ghali, director of the Al-Kawakibi Democracy Transition Center in Tunis said. “People across the region are struggling more now than they have in the last 20 years. Their leaders and governments have contributed nothing to their social and economic welfare.”
The evidence from rights bodies is damning. Reports from Human Rights Watch point to Egypt, currently struggling to implement the reforms mandated by its latest International Monetary Fund bailout, maintaining an authoritarian regime where forced disappearances and torture remain commonplace.
In Algeria, after the COVID-19 pandemic ended mass anti-government protests that erupted in 2019, a crackdown on rights is well under way. Journalists, lawyers and rights defenders, as well as their families, have all been targeted by state apparatus.
In Morocco, rights groups point to the routine harassment of activists, with the state making regular use of the country’s penal code to imprison its critics.
In Libya, wracked by chaos since its 2011 revolution, warring militias exert control over the lives of its citizens, while in Tunisia – seen as the success story of the Arab Spring – President Kais Saied has reversed many of the gains made since the revolution that overthrew former leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
Lack of freedom
There appears to have been a change in the perspective since 2011 when European leaders appeared to accept that post-policy had been overly reliant on maintaining stability.
“In 2011, there was this kind of mea culpa,” Ghali said. “Europe admitted to its mistakes and seemed intent on creating this sense of a new era, of embedding democracy and rights across the region… Now it’s only about security and stability.”
According to ARTICLE 19, a human rights advocacy group, North African societies are among the world’s most restrictive when it comes to freedom.
Nevertheless, the EU continues to help sustain governments through energy deals and aid in return for their help in stopping the flow of refugees and migrants.
“There’s an increasing dichotomy emerging between ‘say’ and ‘do’ in Europe’s relations with North Africa,” David Diaz-Jogeix, ARTICLE 19’s senior director of programmes said. “While the EU can talk about its values, for North Africa it’s just about stopping migration. Essentially, through aid and energy deals, the EU is giving the region’s leaders permission to do what they want.
“By dealing with them in this way, the EU is giving their leaders legitimacy. They’re normalising their rule,” Diaz-Jogeix concluded.
Earlier this year, in the face of mounting international concern over widespread violence being experienced by Black sub-Saharan asylum seekers and refugees as a result of a speech given by the Tunisian president in February, the EU handed over millions in aid, with the promise of more, if terms could first be agreed with the IMF.
Authorities in Libya have been accused by rights groups of complicity in the systematic abuse and torture of refugees and migrants. According to Amnesty International, thousands are subject to arbitrary detention by various militias, armed groups and security forces.
In Algeria, with its rich energy resources, the EU and Italy have already been active in shoring up their presence while turning a blind eye to the demands of former pro-democracy protesters, many now languishing in jail.
Sources within the EU have been quoted as saying both Morocco and Egypt are in the bloc’s sights for an expansion of the Tunisia deal.
Changing attitudes
Nevertheless, EU states find themselves experiencing an unprecedented cost of living crisis, with individual households making the very real choice between heating and eating.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also placed an intense strain upon the EU’s energy strategy with energy resources in Africa now, quite literally, a matter of life and death for many.
That European attitudes to North Africa have undergone a dramatic shift is true, but so too has the character of the EU.
“The influx of millions of people during the migration crisis of 2015 really changed everything,” Susi Dennison of the European Council on Foreign Relations said.
At that time, more than one million predominantly Syrian refugees fled to Europe, accentuating lingering resentment towards immigration within the bloc and appearing to justify the claims of the far-right that Europe’s way of life was under threat.
“After that, the EU shifted to viewing its foreign policy more pragmatically,” Dennison said. “The idea was to deliver aid on a quid pro quo basis. That is, aid would be delivered in return for democratic reform,” she said of Europe’s early attempts to help improve the lives of many within the countries where refugees and migrants were coming from.
“However, more and more, controls on migration and energy deals have come to take precedence over democracy and rights as consideration for EU aid,” she added.
Politically, far-right governments have already taken power in many of Europe’s member states, not least in Italy, where the hardline Georgio Meloni serves as prime minister.
“Across Europe, we’re seeing the nature of human rights and who is entitled to them being debated and redefined. This is especially true of Georgio Meloni, who seems to fixate on what she calls legal migration in return for aid and energy. There’s no real place in that conversation for refugees or asylum seekers,” Dennison told Al Jazeera.
“Her views, which we’d previously have called far-right, are finding ground across Europe as, at least the more relevant parts of her vision each finds its audience with different European leaders, depending upon their need,” she said.
The European Commission, for its part, insists that its migration policies are devised in conjunction with a variety of NGOs and the UNHCR.
“[The migration pact] aims at creating a fairer, efficient, and more sustainable migration and asylum process for the European Union,” an EU spokesperson said. “It is designed to manage and normalise migration for the long term, providing certainty, clarity and decent conditions for people arriving in the EU. It also seeks to establish a common approach to migration and asylum that is based on solidarity, responsibility, and respect for human rights.”
However, this will do little to placate the hungry and the desperate who continue to undertake weeks-long journeys across Africa for the chance of new lives, or just survival, in Europe.
More than 170,000 have crossed irregularly into the continent this year, according to the United Nations. Around 2,700, that we know of, have died in the attempt. The true number is likely much higher.
Very few have probably given much thought to Europe’s politics.
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World
Israel keeping its ‘eyes open’ for Iranian attacks during Trump transition period, ambassador says
Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon tells Fox News Digital that his country is keeping its “eyes open” for any potential aggression from Iran during the Trump transition period, adding it would be a “mistake” for the Islamic Republic to carry out an attack.
The comments come after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed earlier this week that Iran would retaliate against Israel for the strategic airstrikes it carried out against Tehran on Oct. 26. Araghchi was quoted in Iranian media saying “we have not given up our right to react, and we will react in our time and in the way we see fit.”
“I would advise him not to challenge us. We have already shown our capabilities. We have proved that they are vulnerable. We can actually target any location in Iran. They know that,” Danon told Fox News Digital.
“So I would advise them not to make that mistake. If they think that now, because of the transition period, they can take advantage of it, they are wrong,” he added. “We are keeping our eyes open and we are ready for all scenarios.”
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Danon says he believes one of the most important challenges for the incoming Trump administration will be the way the U.S. deals with Iran.
“Regarding the new administration, I think the most important challenge will be the way you challenge Iran, the aggression, the threat of the Iranian regime. I believe that the U.S. will have to go back to a leading position on this issue,” he told Fox News Digital.
“We are fighting the same enemies, the enemies of the United States of America. When you look at the Iranians, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, all those bad actors that are coming against Israel… that is the enemy of the United States. So I think every American should support us and understand what we are doing now,” Danon also said.
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Danon spoke as the U.S. vetoed a draft resolution against Israel at the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday.
The resolution, which was overseen by Algeria, sought an “immediate, unconditional and permanent cease-fire” to be imposed on Israel. The resolution did not guarantee the release of the hostages still being held by Hamas within Gaza.
“It was a shameful resolution because… it didn’t have the linkage between the cease-fire and the call [for] the release of the hostages. And I want to thank the United States for taking a strong position and vetoing this resolution,” Danon said. “I think it sent a very clear message that the U.S. stands with its strongest ally with Israel. And, you know, it was shameful, too, to hear the voices of so many ambassadors speaking about a cease-fire but abandoning the 101 hostages. We will not forget them. We will never abandon them. We will continue to fight until we bring all of them back home.”
Fox News’ Benjamin Weinthal contributed to this report.
World
Fact-check: What do we know about Russia’s nuclear arsenal?
Moscow has lowered the bar for using nuclear weapons and fired a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead into Ukraine, heightening tensions with the West.
Russia’s nuclear arsenal is under fresh scrutiny after an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying an atomic warhead was fired into Ukrainian territory.
President Vladimir Putin says the unprecedented attack using the so-called “Oreshnik” missile is a direct response to Ukraine’s use of US and UK-made missiles to strike targets deep in Russian territory.
He has also warned that the military facilities of Western countries allowing Ukraine to use their weapons to strike Russia could become targets.
The escalation comes days after the Russian President approved small but significant changes to his country’s nuclear doctrine, which would allow a nuclear response to a conventional, non-nuclear attack on Russian territory.
While Western officials, including US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, have dismissed the notion that Moscow’s use of nuclear weapons is imminent, experts warn that recent developments could increase the possibility of nuclear weapons use.
Here’s what we know about Russia’s inventory of atomic weapons.
How big is Russia’s nuclear arsenal?
Russia holds more nuclear warheads than any other nation at an estimated 5,580, which amounts to 47% of global stockpiles, according to data from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
But only an estimated 1,710 of those weapons are deployed, a fraction more than the 1,670 deployed by the US.
Both nations have the necessary nuclear might to destroy each other several times over, and considerably more atomic warheads than the world’s seven other nuclear nations: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United Kingdom.
Of Moscow’s deployed weapons, an estimated 870 are on land-based ballistic missiles, 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and potentially 200 at heavy bomber bases.
According to FAS, there are no signs Russia is significantly scaling up its nuclear arsenal, but the federation does warn of a potential surge in the future as the country replaces single-warhead missiles with those capable of carrying multiple warheads.
Russia is also steadily modernising its nuclear arsenal.
What could trigger a Russian nuclear response?
Moscow’s previous 2020 doctrine stated that its nuclear weapons could be used in response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction “when the very existence of the state is put under threat.”
Now, the conditions under which a nuclear response could be launched have changed in three crucial ways:
- Russia will consider using nuclear weapons in the case of a strike on its territory using conventional weapons, such as cruise missiles, drones and tactical aircraft.
- It could launch a nuclear attack in response to an aggression by a non-nuclear state acting “with the participation or support of a nuclear state”, as is the case for Ukraine.
- Moscow will also apply the same conditions to an attack on Belarus’ territory, in agreement with President Lukashenko.
Is there a rising nuclear threat?
The size of the world’s nuclear stockpiles has rapidly decreased amid the post-Cold War détente. The Soviet Union had some 40,000 warheads, and the US around 30,000, when stockpiles peaked during the 1960s and 70s.
But FAS warns that while the overall number is still in decline, operational warheads are on the rise once again. More countries are also upgrading their missiles to deploy multiple warheads.
“In nearly all of the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces,” Hans M. Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), said in June this year.
Is the West reacting?
When Putin approved the updated nuclear protocol last week, many Western leaders dismissed it as sabre rattling.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Germany and its partners would “not be intimidated” and accused Putin of “playing with our fear.”
But since Russia used a hypersonic ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead in an attack on Dnipro, European leaders have raised the alarm.
“The last few dozen hours have shown that the threat is serious and real when it comes to global conflict,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday.
According to Dutch media reports, NATO’s secretary-general Mark Rutte is in Florida to urgently meet President-elect Donald Trump, potentially to discuss the recent escalation.
NATO and Ukraine will hold an extraordinary meeting in Brussels next Tuesday to discuss the situation and the possible allied reaction, according to Euronews sources.
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