Connect with us

Washington

Analysis | Biden’s arguments for staying in the 2024 race, parsed

Published

on

Analysis | Biden’s arguments for staying in the 2024 race, parsed


There are surely good reasons for President Biden to resist pressure to drop out of his 2024 reelection race. They’re just not always the ones he and his team put forward.

In recent days, Biden and his campaign have offered a number of justifications for why he shouldn’t cave to that pressure and pass the torch to someone else. Often, the suggestion is that he’s best-positioned to take on Donald Trump or even the only one who can defeat him — despite Biden’s poor poll numbers. Even more often, it involves a novel reading of the electoral landscape that bears little resemblance to the available data.

So as Democrats continue their lengthy internal debate, we thought it worth parsing some of the arguments put forward by the incumbent and his team.

“All the data shows that the average Democrat out there who voted — 14 million of them that voted for me — still want me to be the nominee, number one. … I wanted to make sure I was right, that the average voter out there still wanted Joe Biden. And I’m confident they do.”

Advertisement

“I’m getting so frustrated by the elites … in the party who — they know so much more.” (Monday MSNBC “Morning Joe” interview)

There is clearly an effort afoot to pitch this as powerful people trying to push Biden out. But it’s not just the “elites” who want Biden to step aside, nor is it clear that the “average” Democratic voter wants him to stay. Indeed, as much as half of Biden’s base wants him out, according to multiple polls, and it appears the average Democratic voter is straddling the fence.

In a post-debate CNN poll, Democratic-leaning voters said 56 percent to 43 percent that their party would have a better chance with “someone else.” A New York Times-Siena College poll showed Democrats split almost evenly on whether their party should have a different nominee. In a CBS News-YouGov poll, 46 percent of Democrats said Biden shouldn’t be running, versus 54 percent who said he should.

Yes, polls can be off. But even if these are off by a few points, that’s a huge proportion of the base that wants someone else — even long after the primaries ended with Biden as the presumptive nominee.

“Number two, remember all this talk about how I don’t have the Black support? Come on. Give me a break. Come with me. Watch. Watch.” (“Morning Joe”)

Advertisement

It would be shocking if Biden didn’t win a strong majority of Black voters. But the real question is how much support he bleeds among this extremely important and often overwhelmingly Democratic group. And virtually every poll shows him struggling, relative to past Democrats.

Democrats haven’t taken less than 80 percent of the Black vote since at least 1972, and Biden won them 92 percent to 8 percent in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center’s Validated Voter survey.

A large-sample May poll from the Pew Research Center showed Biden ceding about twice as many Black voters — 18 percent — in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. That poll showed more than half of Black voters wanted to replace Biden in the race.

“The New York Times had me down 10 points before the debate — nine now, or whatever the hell it is. … New York Times had me behind before anything having to do with this [debate] — had me behind 10 points. Ten points, they had me behind. Nothing’s changed substantially since the debate in the New York Times poll.” (Friday ABC News interview)

The Times-Siena poll just before the debate actually had Biden trailing by between three and seven points, not 10 points, depending on whether you include third-party candidates and whether you focus on likely or registered voters.

Advertisement

(Indeed, no high-quality poll this year — as compiled by FiveThirtyEight — has shown Biden trailing Donald Trump by double digits.)

Biden’s deficit in the Times-Siena poll grew after the debate to between five and eight points, depending on how you slice it. The shifts in this and other polls have generally been within the margin of error, but there have been enough polls showing a small shift against Biden to logically assume there has been a shift.

Other polls since then also suggest voters are even more concerned about Biden’s age and acuity and view him less positively. His deficit in the national FiveThirtyEight average of polls has grown by about two points since the debate, and his average approval rating has hit an all-time low of about 37 percent.

“Pres Joe Biden is the only person standing between us and another Donald Trump term …” (Biden spokesman T.J. Ducklo on Saturday)

While not explicitly saying that only Biden can beat Trump, that has been the tenor of much of the pushback. Biden and his allies will often note that he’s the only candidate who has actually beaten Trump (in 2020), for instance.

For what it’s worth, Biden said in December that “probably 50” Democrats were capable of defeating Trump. Months earlier, Biden said that he wasn’t the “only” one who could beat Trump and protect democracy but that he was “best-positioned” to do it. (Trump, it bears noting, has been involved in a total of only three competitive campaigns, including the 2016 primaries and general election.)

As for whether Biden is best-positioned? The limited polling we have shows other Democrats performing similarly to Biden in some cases and better in a couple of cases. Michelle Obama leads Trump by double digits in a Reuters-Ipsos poll, and Vice President Harris did slightly better than Biden in the CNN poll (though worse than Biden in other polls).

And many other potential candidates are far less well-known, which often depresses poll numbers. That leaves open the possibility that voters could find them more compelling than a president with a 37 percent approval rating.

The fact that many Democratic Senate candidates are currently running better than Biden in their states would surely suggest that someone else could at least theoretically be stronger in the presidential race. Of course, that’s just in theory.

Advertisement

“I don’t care what those big names [liberals and Democrats suggesting he drop out] think. They were wrong in 2020. They were wrong in 2022 about the red wave. They’re wrong in 2024. … Not only were they wrong, I said they were wrong beforehand. … I was not surprised; I predicted it.” (“Morning Joe”)

Biden was counted out by some in the 2020 primaries, after losing the first three states. (His big win in South Carolina put him on course for victory.) But he was the widely acknowledged favorite in the general election throughout. And general elections are more predictable, because of partisanship.

As for 2022, while plenty of analysts and politicians floated the possibility of a “red wave,” that generally didn’t come from liberals and Democrats. And high-quality polling was not as troubling for Democrats then as it is now. Indeed, predictions of a red wave largely ignored the quite-accurate polls.

“I carried an awful lot of the Democrats the last time I ran in 2020.” (ABC News)

Biden did over-perform most key Democratic Senate candidates in the 2020 election — 8 of 10, to be exact — making it plausible that his performance helped them.

Advertisement

There is some question about how much of that was voters just not liking Trump, but exit polls showed a slight majority of voters (52 percent) had a favorable opinion of Biden at the time.

That said, Biden’s image is in a far different place now; his favorable rating is about 38 percent. (Favorability is more of a personal measure, while approval pertains to job performance.)

“But if any of these guys don’t think I should run, run against me. Go ahead. Announce for president. Challenge me at the convention.” (“Morning Joe”)

There is no plausible path for anyone else at the convention if Biden doesn’t drop out. But that’s not because the base doesn’t want it, necessarily; it’s because the vast majority of the delegates are pledged to Biden after his performance in the primaries.

“The voters — and the voters alone — decide the nominee of the Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that.” (Monday letter to fellow Democrats)

Advertisement

It’s valid to point out that Biden was the overwhelming choice of Democratic primary voters. Big-name Democrats could have challenged him. They didn’t, for a variety of reasons, and he won big.

Having delegates pick the new nominee or coronating Harris is clearly less of a democratic process.

But the idea that urging him to drop out is ignoring democracy is a bit of a stretch. His allies aren’t talking about delegates overturning the results; they are talking about persuading Biden to willingly drop out in light of new evidence raising concerns about his ability to campaign. And voters who were reluctant to vote for him in the primaries didn’t have a real, viable alternative.





Source link

Advertisement

Washington

Portland State tabs Division II coach to take over football program

Published

on

Portland State tabs Division II coach to take over football program


Less than three weeks after firing longtime football head coach Bruce Barnum, Portland State has found a replacement in an attempt to revive the struggling program.

The school reached an agreement this week with Central Washington head coach Chris Fisk, a source close to the program confirmed. The Wildcats went 48-22 in Fisk’s four-year tenure and reached the Division II playoffs each of the last three years.

He was expected to meet with his players in Ellensburg Friday morning.

Originally from Pocatello, Idaho, Fisk was previously the co-offensive coordinator and coached the offensive line at CWU. He held the same role at NAIA Southern Oregon from 2011-15.

Advertisement

Fisk was among 12 candidates who interviewed for the position, with Fisk emerging quickly as teh favorite.

He is expected to be introduced at Portland State early next week.

Central Washington finished 10-2 this season, including a 9-0 mark in the Lone Star Conference to win the 10-team league. Last month, the American Football Coaches Association honored Fisk as the Division II Super Region 4 Coach of the Year.  

The 48-year-old Fisk steps into the position with a mountain of challenges ahead of him. The obstacles facing Portland State football have been well-told, from their lack of resources to playing home games nearly 15 miles from campus at Hillsboro Stadium.

Fisk will also face fundraising challenges, especially in the age of NIL and revenue sharing — areas that PSU has admittedly lagged.

Advertisement

His predecessor, Barnum, went 39-75 in 11 seasons, posting a winning record just once. Barnum often lamented the school’s need to play multiple “money” games each season against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents to subsidize costs.

This fall, the Vikings went 1-11, with their lone win coming on Nov. 1 at Cal Poly. Barnum was fired on Nov. 22 with one year and $210,000 remaining on his contract.

It was not immediately clear how much Fisk will earn in his first season, but the salary is expected to be similar to that of Barnum.

Fisk is the second head coach hired by athletic director Matt Billings since he ascended to athletic director last winter. In April, he tabbed former Portland Pilots star Karlie Burris to lead the women’s basketball program.



Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Washington

Dulles passenger hurt after getting stuck in baggage claim equipment

Published

on

Dulles passenger hurt after getting stuck in baggage claim equipment


A passenger got stuck in baggage claim equipment at Washington Dulles International Airport on Thursday morning and is hurt, authorities say.

The adult made “an unauthorized entry into the baggage delivery system” and got trapped, the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority said.

Stream NBC4 newscasts for free right here, right now.

  WATCH HERE
Advertisement

The person needed to be freed by fire and rescue crews and was taken to a hospital at about 9 a.m.

No information was immediately released on how the person got stuck in the equipment or the extent of their injuries.

‘Crashed into a wall at speed’: Traveler describes Dulles mobile lounge accident

Advertisement

Dulles police officers out after criminal, administrative investigations

Advertisement

Trump says he’s rebuilding Dulles airport while his administration is fixing the ‘people movers’

Advertisement

The emergency comes a week after President Donald Trump said his administration will rebuild the airport, which he called “terrible.”

Last month, a mobile lounge at the airport crashed into a concourse dock, sending 18 people to the hospital. One man told News4 he got a concussion after the people mover shuttle “crashed into a wall at speed.”

New legislation would return airspace regulations around Reagan National Airport to where they were before the midair collision. Transportation Reporter Adam Tuss explains.

Stay with NBC Washington for more details on this developing story.



Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Washington

Record flooding threatens Washington as more heavy rain pounds the Northwest

Published

on

Record flooding threatens Washington as more heavy rain pounds the Northwest


Residents packed up and prepared to flee rising rivers in western Washington state Wednesday as a new wave of heavy rain swept into a region still reeling from a storm that triggered rescues and road closures a day earlier.

In the Pacific Northwest, an atmospheric river was swelling rivers toward record levels, with major flooding expected in some areas including the Skagit River, a major agricultural valley north of Seattle. Dozens of vehicles were backed up at a sandbag-filling station in the town of Mount Vernon as authorities warned residents within the river’s floodplain to be ready to evacuate.

“We’re preparing for what increasingly appears to be a worst-case scenario here,” Mount Vernon Mayor Peter Donovan said.

In the Mount Rainier foothills southeast of Seattle, Pierce County sheriff’s deputies rescued people at an RV park in Orting, including helping one man in a Santa hat wade through waist-deep water. Part of the town was ordered to evacuate over concerns about the Puyallup River’s extremely high levels and upstream levees.

Advertisement

A landslide blocked part of Interstate 90 east of Seattle, with photos from Eastside Fire & Rescue showing vehicles trapped by tree trunks, branches, mud and standing water, including a car rammed into the metal barrier on the side of the road.

Officials also closed a mountainous section of U.S. 2 due to rocks, trees and mud. The state transportation department said there were no detours available and no estimated time for reopening.

Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson declared a statewide emergency Wednesday. “Lives will be at stake in the coming days,” he said.

Skagit County officials were preparing to evacuate 75,000 people, said Robert Ezelle, director of the Washington Military Department’s emergency management division.

Gent Welsh, adjutant general of the Washington National Guard, said hundreds of Guard members will be sent to help communities.

Advertisement

Flooding rivers could break records

The Skagit River is expected to crest at roughly 47 feet (14.3 meters) in the mountain town of Concrete early Thursday, and roughly 41 feet (12 meters) in Mount Vernon early Friday.

Those are both “record-setting forecasts by several feet,” Skagit County officials said, adding that upriver communities should evacuate to high ground as soon as possible and that those living in the floodplain should be prepared to evacuate.

Flooding from the river long plagued Mount Vernon, the largest city in the county with some 35,000 residents. In decades past, residents would form sandbagging brigades when floods threatened, but businesses were often inundated. Flooding in 2003 displaced hundreds of people.

The city completed a floodwall in 2018 that helps protect the downtown. It passed a major test in 2021, when the river crested near record levels.

But the city is on high alert. The historic river levels expected Friday could top the wall, and some are concerned that older levees could fail.

Advertisement

“We’ve seen our floodwall in action and we know it works to a large degree,” said Ellen Gamson, executive director of the Mount Vernon Downtown Association. “But the concern about that kind of pressure on the levy and dike system is real. It could potentially be catastrophic.”

Gamson said many business owners were renting tables to place their inventory higher off the floor. Sheena Wilson, who owns a floral shop downtown, said she stacked sandbags by the doors and cleared items off the floor.

“If the water comes in above table height I’ve got bigger problems than my merchandise,” she said.

Jake Lambly, 45, added sandbags, tested water pumps and moved valuables to the top floor of the home he shares with his 19-year-old son. Lambly said he was concerned about damage in his neighborhood, where people “are just on the cusp of whether or not we can be homeowners.”

“This is my only asset,” he said from his front porch. “I got nothing else.”

Advertisement

RELATED STORY | Families sue Camp Mystic, claiming negligence over deadly flash floods in Texas

Cities respond to flooding

Harrison Rademacher, a meteorologist with the weather service in Seattle, described the atmospheric river soaking the region as “a jet stream of moisture” stretching across the Pacific Ocean “with the nozzle pushing right along the coast of Oregon and Washington.”

Authorities in Washington have knocked on doors to warn residents of imminent flooding in certain neighborhoods, and evacuated a mobile home park along the Snohomish River. The city of Snohomish issued an emergency proclamation, while workers in Auburn, south of Seattle, installed temporary flood control barriers along the White River.

Climate change has been linked to some intense rainfall. Scientists say that without specific study they cannot directly link a single weather event to climate change, but in general it’s responsible for more intense and more frequent extreme storms, droughts, floods and wildfires.

Another storm system is expected to bring more rain starting Sunday, Rademacher said. “The pattern looks pretty unsettled going up to the holidays.”

Advertisement





Source link

Continue Reading

Trending