There are surely good reasons for President Biden to resist pressure to drop out of his 2024 reelection race. They’re just not always the ones he and his team put forward.
Washington
Analysis | Biden’s arguments for staying in the 2024 race, parsed
So as Democrats continue their lengthy internal debate, we thought it worth parsing some of the arguments put forward by the incumbent and his team.
“All the data shows that the average Democrat out there who voted — 14 million of them that voted for me — still want me to be the nominee, number one. … I wanted to make sure I was right, that the average voter out there still wanted Joe Biden. And I’m confident they do.”
“I’m getting so frustrated by the elites … in the party who — they know so much more.” (Monday MSNBC “Morning Joe” interview)
There is clearly an effort afoot to pitch this as powerful people trying to push Biden out. But it’s not just the “elites” who want Biden to step aside, nor is it clear that the “average” Democratic voter wants him to stay. Indeed, as much as half of Biden’s base wants him out, according to multiple polls, and it appears the average Democratic voter is straddling the fence.
In a post-debate CNN poll, Democratic-leaning voters said 56 percent to 43 percent that their party would have a better chance with “someone else.” A New York Times-Siena College poll showed Democrats split almost evenly on whether their party should have a different nominee. In a CBS News-YouGov poll, 46 percent of Democrats said Biden shouldn’t be running, versus 54 percent who said he should.
Yes, polls can be off. But even if these are off by a few points, that’s a huge proportion of the base that wants someone else — even long after the primaries ended with Biden as the presumptive nominee.
“Number two, remember all this talk about how I don’t have the Black support? Come on. Give me a break. Come with me. Watch. Watch.” (“Morning Joe”)
It would be shocking if Biden didn’t win a strong majority of Black voters. But the real question is how much support he bleeds among this extremely important and often overwhelmingly Democratic group. And virtually every poll shows him struggling, relative to past Democrats.
Democrats haven’t taken less than 80 percent of the Black vote since at least 1972, and Biden won them 92 percent to 8 percent in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center’s Validated Voter survey.
A large-sample May poll from the Pew Research Center showed Biden ceding about twice as many Black voters — 18 percent — in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. That poll showed more than half of Black voters wanted to replace Biden in the race.
“The New York Times had me down 10 points before the debate — nine now, or whatever the hell it is. … New York Times had me behind before anything having to do with this [debate] — had me behind 10 points. Ten points, they had me behind. Nothing’s changed substantially since the debate in the New York Times poll.” (Friday ABC News interview)
The Times-Siena poll just before the debate actually had Biden trailing by between three and seven points, not 10 points, depending on whether you include third-party candidates and whether you focus on likely or registered voters.
(Indeed, no high-quality poll this year — as compiled by FiveThirtyEight — has shown Biden trailing Donald Trump by double digits.)
Biden’s deficit in the Times-Siena poll grew after the debate to between five and eight points, depending on how you slice it. The shifts in this and other polls have generally been within the margin of error, but there have been enough polls showing a small shift against Biden to logically assume there has been a shift.
Other polls since then also suggest voters are even more concerned about Biden’s age and acuity and view him less positively. His deficit in the national FiveThirtyEight average of polls has grown by about two points since the debate, and his average approval rating has hit an all-time low of about 37 percent.
“Pres Joe Biden is the only person standing between us and another Donald Trump term …” (Biden spokesman T.J. Ducklo on Saturday)
This is a close election. It will be until the end. Pres Joe Biden is the only person standing between us and another Donald Trump term which, as we know from Project 2025, would be far worse. Now is the time to stand behind the only guy to ever beat Trump, so we can do it again. https://t.co/HtvWWDvw4R
— TJ Ducklo (@TDucklo) July 6, 2024
While not explicitly saying that only Biden can beat Trump, that has been the tenor of much of the pushback. Biden and his allies will often note that he’s the only candidate who has actually beaten Trump (in 2020), for instance.
For what it’s worth, Biden said in December that “probably 50” Democrats were capable of defeating Trump. Months earlier, Biden said that he wasn’t the “only” one who could beat Trump and protect democracy but that he was “best-positioned” to do it. (Trump, it bears noting, has been involved in a total of only three competitive campaigns, including the 2016 primaries and general election.)
As for whether Biden is best-positioned? The limited polling we have shows other Democrats performing similarly to Biden in some cases and better in a couple of cases. Michelle Obama leads Trump by double digits in a Reuters-Ipsos poll, and Vice President Harris did slightly better than Biden in the CNN poll (though worse than Biden in other polls).
And many other potential candidates are far less well-known, which often depresses poll numbers. That leaves open the possibility that voters could find them more compelling than a president with a 37 percent approval rating.
The fact that many Democratic Senate candidates are currently running better than Biden in their states would surely suggest that someone else could at least theoretically be stronger in the presidential race. Of course, that’s just in theory.
“I don’t care what those big names [liberals and Democrats suggesting he drop out] think. They were wrong in 2020. They were wrong in 2022 about the red wave. They’re wrong in 2024. … Not only were they wrong, I said they were wrong beforehand. … I was not surprised; I predicted it.” (“Morning Joe”)
Biden was counted out by some in the 2020 primaries, after losing the first three states. (His big win in South Carolina put him on course for victory.) But he was the widely acknowledged favorite in the general election throughout. And general elections are more predictable, because of partisanship.
As for 2022, while plenty of analysts and politicians floated the possibility of a “red wave,” that generally didn’t come from liberals and Democrats. And high-quality polling was not as troubling for Democrats then as it is now. Indeed, predictions of a red wave largely ignored the quite-accurate polls.
“I carried an awful lot of the Democrats the last time I ran in 2020.” (ABC News)
Biden did over-perform most key Democratic Senate candidates in the 2020 election — 8 of 10, to be exact — making it plausible that his performance helped them.
There is some question about how much of that was voters just not liking Trump, but exit polls showed a slight majority of voters (52 percent) had a favorable opinion of Biden at the time.
That said, Biden’s image is in a far different place now; his favorable rating is about 38 percent. (Favorability is more of a personal measure, while approval pertains to job performance.)
“But if any of these guys don’t think I should run, run against me. Go ahead. Announce for president. Challenge me at the convention.” (“Morning Joe”)
There is no plausible path for anyone else at the convention if Biden doesn’t drop out. But that’s not because the base doesn’t want it, necessarily; it’s because the vast majority of the delegates are pledged to Biden after his performance in the primaries.
“The voters — and the voters alone — decide the nominee of the Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that.” (Monday letter to fellow Democrats)
It’s valid to point out that Biden was the overwhelming choice of Democratic primary voters. Big-name Democrats could have challenged him. They didn’t, for a variety of reasons, and he won big.
Having delegates pick the new nominee or coronating Harris is clearly less of a democratic process.
But the idea that urging him to drop out is ignoring democracy is a bit of a stretch. His allies aren’t talking about delegates overturning the results; they are talking about persuading Biden to willingly drop out in light of new evidence raising concerns about his ability to campaign. And voters who were reluctant to vote for him in the primaries didn’t have a real, viable alternative.
Washington
A first look at Jakob Chychrun in Washington Capitals gear
It didn’t take long for Jakob Chychrun to sport Washington Capitals colors.
Fifteen days after his July 1 trade from the Ottawa Senators to the Caps, the defenseman was seen skating at Progressive Auto Sales Arena — the home of the OHL’s Sarnia Sting — wearing red, white, and blue.
“A familiar face joined open skate on Tuesday afternoon!” the Sting wrote on social media. “Check out Jakob’s new sweater 👀”
Chychrun spent two seasons with the junior team (2014-15 and 2015-16), posting two 10-plus goal campaigns and serving as an alternate captain before leaving for the Arizona Coyotes.
In the photos, Chychrun sported an old Capitals practice jersey produced by Adidas. He also rocked his new number six helmet, featuring the Caps’ sponsor Capital One, and navy blue hockey pants. The only part of his equipment that still features Senators’ colors is his CCM gloves.
A familiar face joined open skate on Tuesday afternoon! Check out Jakob’s new sweater 👀#Stingfootprint | #ALLCAPS pic.twitter.com/ymvAlMm82Q
— Sarnia Sting (@StingHockey) July 18, 2024
Chychrun will be the first player to wear number six with the Capitals since Joel Edmundson did so last season. Famously, Michal Kempny and Calle Johansson wore the digit in the past.
Chychrun has had an eventful summer beyond his trade to the Capitals. He also proposed to his longtime girlfriend, Olivia Ibrahim.
After missing the playoffs with the Senators, Chychrun is really excited to start his time with Washington. He was one of seven major acquisitions general manager Brian MacLellan made over the offseason to remake the team.
“I’m thrilled honestly,” Chychrun said. “I think it’s a great fit for me personally and I’m just so excited to be able to help contribute to this team and try to take this team into the playoffs.”
Washington
Washington Post branded ‘thoughtless’ over tweet on hostage’s parents
Jewish organizations and figures slammed the Washington Post on Friday for an X post, and accompanying article, on the parents of hostage Omer Neutra.
In a social media post sharing an article on Neutra’s parents, the Washington Post wrote “Omer Neutra has been missing since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. When his parents speak publicly, they don’t talk about Israel’s assault on Gaza that has killed over 38,000 Palestinians according to local officials. Experts have warned of looming famine.”
The Washington Post later deleted the post, sharing “A previous post referencing the below story was unacceptable and did not meet our editorial standards, and The Post has deleted it. The reporter of the story was not involved in crafting the tweet. We have taken the appropriate action regarding this incident. https://wapo.st/3zZ6Lwz”
A previous post referencing the below story was unacceptable and did not meet our editorial standards, and The Post has deleted it. The reporter of the story was not involved in crafting the tweet. We have taken the appropriate action regarding this incident.…
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 19, 2024
The site posted about the article again, this time writing “Omer Neutra, an American hostage in the Israel-Hamas war, has been missing since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. His parents have mounted a relentless effort to get him released, speaking to anyone who might be able to support their cause.”
They added, “We’ve deleted a previous tweet for this story that mischaracterized the efforts of Neutra’s parents.”
Omer Neutra, an American hostage in the Israel-Hamas war, has been missing since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. His parents have mounted a relentless effort to get him released, speaking to anyone who might be able to support their cause. https://t.co/QC1y8OmogZ
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 19, 2024
ADL CEO Jonathan Greenblatt, sharing a screenshot of the post, wrote “Are you kidding me, @washingtonpost? You may have deleted the post, but the thoughtless characterization of Omer Neutra’s parents – who have spent the last 287 days not knowing the fate of their son after he was kidnapped by terrorists on Oct 7 – remains in your article.
“In what world did anyone find it acceptable to publish in the first place?
“And to add insult to injury, the article cites “local officials,” aka the Gaza Health Ministry, which is run by Hamas – the terror organization that launched the barbaric 10/7 massacre that led to the ongoing war.”
Are you kidding me, @washingtonpost? You may have deleted the post, but the thoughtless characterization of Omer Neutra’s parents – who have spent the last 287 days not knowing the fate of their son after he was kidnapped by terrorists on Oct 7 – remains in your article.In what… pic.twitter.com/hHY4FrHrVI
— Jonathan Greenblatt (@JGreenblattADL) July 19, 2024
The American Jewish Committee also commented on the X post, stating “The parents of Israeli-American hostage Omer Neutra have one goal: TRYING TO FREE THEIR SON from Hamas captivity. That’s all they need to say. How could this tweet have been posted? Shame on @WashingtonPost for calling the Neutra’s morality into question.”
The parents of Israeli-American hostage Omer Neutra have one goal: TRYING TO FREE THEIR SON from Hamas captivity.That’s all they need to say.How could this tweet have been posted? Shame on @WashingtonPost for calling the Neutra’s morality into question. pic.twitter.com/ogx95SfV0C
— American Jewish Committee (@AJCGlobal) July 19, 2024
Israel’s embassy to the United States also took issue with the post, sharing on X “Even after updating their offensively misleading tweet, @washingtonpost still insisted on saying that 22-year-old American hostage, Omer Neutra, has been “MISSING” since October 7th. This isn’t a game of hide and seek. Omer was KIDNAPPED to GAZA by HAMAS TERRORISTS and has been held captive in unimaginable conditions for over 9 months.”
Even after updating their offensively misleading tweet, @washingtonpost still insisted on saying that 22-year-old American hostage, Omer Neutra, has been “MISSING” since October 7th. This isn’t a game of hide and seek.Omer was KIDNAPPED to GAZA by HAMAS TERRORISTS and has… pic.twitter.com/I3D4WoOUmN
— Embassy of Israel to the USA (@IsraelinUSA) July 19, 2024
About the Washington Post article
While the social media post claimed that Neutra is “missing,” the article did acknowledge that he was taken hostage but did not mention that it was Hamas terrorists who abducted him.
The article explicitly mentioned Neutra’s parents, Orna and Ronen, “The couple declined to discuss their own political affiliations, saying it’s irrelevant.”
The author also charged that both Orna and Ronen “don’t talk about the ferocity of Israel’s counterattack, which has killed more than 38,000 Palestinians and left nearly 90,000 injured” when they speak publicly. The author attributed this figure to the Gaza health ministry, failing to mention its affiliation with Hamas.
What’s happening in Gaza is “horrible,” Orna told the Washington Post, while asserting that Hamas could end it by releasing the hostages. Ronen shared Orna’s belief, telling the Post Hamas is “not only holding hostage our son, they’re also holding hostage the people of Gaza.”
Omer Neutra
Neutra, 22, is an American-Israeli who deferred his college admission to Binghamton University to join the IDF.
Neutra was working as a tank commander on October 7, and his family had not heard from him since the day before the attack.
Born in New York only a month after September 11, Orna told Republican National Conference attendees how, during her pregnancy, she was “just trying to get him out of harm’s way. And it’s just insane that 23 years later, he was caught in this vile terrorist attack.”
Washington
Analysis | What Families USA’s new boss brings to the table
Q&A: Where Anthony Wright wants to lead Families USA
Anthony Wright, the new executive director of Families USA, is hitting the ground running.
Last week, Wright started his new role in Washington after 22 years as executive director of Health Access California. I caught up with him to discuss his vision for one of the nation’s leading health-care advocacy organizations. Our conversation has been edited for brevity and clarity.
Health brief: Are there lessons you learned at Health Access California that you think will be helpful in Washington?
Wright: One lesson is to make sure that there’s a strong consumer voice in the crafting of health-care policy. Patients and the public are sometimes left out of these discussions, but they are the point of the health-care system and should be at the center of the conversation.
Health brief: What health policy issues do you intend to prioritize early in your tenure?
Wright: Right now, we have a government guarantee that nobody has to spend more than 8.5 percent of their income on health coverage, but that’s set to expire in the next year.
If those tax credits are allowed to expire, that would mean a spike in premiums of hundreds of dollars per month on average and potentially around 5 million Americans losing coverage. That’s a crucial policy that we need to get lawmakers on the record about as we go into this fall.
Health brief: How are you preparing for 2025 and the election aftermath?
Wright: We need to be very clear that our health care is on the ballot. There are stark differences on health care that we need to hear from our policymakers on, whether it’s reproductive health, the ACA and its future, the [expanded tax credits] or prescription drug prices.
On prescription drug prices, we could see [the federal government] either expanding both the number of drugs that we negotiate over and having those discounted prices be extended to a much broader set of payers and patients. Or we could see that power be repealed.
In terms of the ACA, it’s not just the 5 million people who could lose coverage under the expiration of those subsidies. It’s the 20 million-plus folks that might lose coverage under a total repeal … [which would bring on] spiking premiums leading the market into a death spiral.
Health brief: Is there anything you achieved in California that you’d like to see replicated on a national scale?
Wright: In California, we worked a lot on the issues of cost and value, and Families USA has also been a leader in that. We created an Office of Health Care Affordability that set a goal for health growth, which a number of states are following.
Given my background growing up in the Bronx in the poorest congressional district in the country, being a son of an immigrant from Ecuador and the grandson of immigrants from Ireland and China, and actually even being uninsured for parts of my childhood, issues of access, economic security and equity are a personal passion for me. That’s something I was happy to work on in California and want to continue doing so with this national cap.
On the Hill
Sanders, Cassidy seek subpoena vote for Steward Health CEO
The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee is launching an investigation into the bankruptcy of Steward Health Care, a Dallas-based company with private equity ties that owns 31 hospitals across eight states.
Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and ranking member Bill Cassidy (R-La.) announced that the panel will vote on July 25 to subpoena Steward’s CEO, Ralph de la Torre, to testify at a Sept. 12 hearing on the health system’s financial decisions leading up to its May bankruptcy filing.
Key context: Steward is selling all of its U.S. hospitals to help offload its $9 billion debt, which includes $1.2 billion in loans, $6.6 billion in unpaid rent, nearly $1 billion in unpaid bills from medical vendors and suppliers, and $290 million in unpaid employee wages and benefits.
Steward has blamed rising interest rates, labor costs and insufficient government health insurance reimbursement rates for its bankruptcy. Newly released court documents also show that in the months leading up to the filing, top executives awarded themselves multimillion dollar payouts.
Zooming out: Steward’s bankruptcy is being probed in several states, including Massachusetts and Arizona. The health system is also under scrutiny by the Justice Department, which recently launched a criminal investigation into the company over allegations of fraud and corruption, according to Michael Kaplan of CBS News.
Steward didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The CEO of Steward Health Care is the poster child for the type of outrageous corporate greed that permeates through our health care system. It’s time for this CEO to get off his $40 million yacht and explain how much he’s gained financially while bankrupting Steward Health Care. pic.twitter.com/8tgqiyLaTP
— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) July 18, 2024
Agency alert
FDA allows sales of more tobacco-flavored vapes
The Food and Drug Administration is allowing R.J. Reynolds to keep several e-cigarette products on the market, my colleague Rachel Roubein reports.
Federal health officials authorized sales of seven of the company’s Vuse Alto vaping products, but only for tobacco-flavored pods.
The agency stressed the move “does not mean these tobacco products are safe.” In a statement, the FDA said the company showed the products have the potential to provide a benefit to adults who smoke cigarettes, adding that kids are less likely to use tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes compared to other flavors.
The background: Last year, the FDA denied R.J. Reynolds’s application for several menthol-flavored products, a decision the company has challenged in court. But last month, the agency authorized the first menthol-flavored e-cigarette products, manufactured by NJOY, which drew swift criticism from some public health advocates.
A government watchdog found compliance issues with federal Medicaid eligibility redetermination requirements in nearly all states, including with long-standing requirements.
Key context: A pandemic-era policy prevented Americans from being dropped from Medicaid until it expired in April 2023. This prompted states to review their ballooning rolls and remove those no longer eligible for the safety net program.
The Government Accountability Office identified several compliance issues during the so-called “unwinding.” For instance, about 420,000 eligible individuals, including children, lost coverage because states assessed household, not individual, eligibility, according to the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare Services.
- The watchdog recommended that CMS document and implement oversight practices to prevent and detect state compliance issues with redeterminations. The agency agreed with the GAO’s recommendation.
In other health news
On the move: Joel McElvain is now acting deputy general counsel at HHS, overseeing matters related to CMS. McElvain, a longtime Justice Department official, had previously been serving as HHS special counsel, working on drug-price negotiation.
Quote of the week
“I shouldn’t have to go into medical debt just to be able to live.”
— Virginia Beach resident Robyn DeChabert on a pharmacy charging her $1,700 for a Paxlovid prescription.
Health reads
At RNC convention, Republicans differ on how much to focus on abortion (By Meryl Kornfield and Hannah Knowles | The Washington Post)
What to know about cheaper, imitation weight-loss drugs (By Daniel Gilbert and Teddy Amenabar | The Washington Post)
Covid summer wave spreads across U.S., even infecting Biden (By Fenit Nirappil and Lizette Ortega | The Washington Post)
Sugar rush
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