Connect with us

Washington

Analysis | Biden’s arguments for staying in the 2024 race, parsed

Published

on

Analysis | Biden’s arguments for staying in the 2024 race, parsed


There are surely good reasons for President Biden to resist pressure to drop out of his 2024 reelection race. They’re just not always the ones he and his team put forward.

In recent days, Biden and his campaign have offered a number of justifications for why he shouldn’t cave to that pressure and pass the torch to someone else. Often, the suggestion is that he’s best-positioned to take on Donald Trump or even the only one who can defeat him — despite Biden’s poor poll numbers. Even more often, it involves a novel reading of the electoral landscape that bears little resemblance to the available data.

So as Democrats continue their lengthy internal debate, we thought it worth parsing some of the arguments put forward by the incumbent and his team.

“All the data shows that the average Democrat out there who voted — 14 million of them that voted for me — still want me to be the nominee, number one. … I wanted to make sure I was right, that the average voter out there still wanted Joe Biden. And I’m confident they do.”

Advertisement

“I’m getting so frustrated by the elites … in the party who — they know so much more.” (Monday MSNBC “Morning Joe” interview)

There is clearly an effort afoot to pitch this as powerful people trying to push Biden out. But it’s not just the “elites” who want Biden to step aside, nor is it clear that the “average” Democratic voter wants him to stay. Indeed, as much as half of Biden’s base wants him out, according to multiple polls, and it appears the average Democratic voter is straddling the fence.

In a post-debate CNN poll, Democratic-leaning voters said 56 percent to 43 percent that their party would have a better chance with “someone else.” A New York Times-Siena College poll showed Democrats split almost evenly on whether their party should have a different nominee. In a CBS News-YouGov poll, 46 percent of Democrats said Biden shouldn’t be running, versus 54 percent who said he should.

Yes, polls can be off. But even if these are off by a few points, that’s a huge proportion of the base that wants someone else — even long after the primaries ended with Biden as the presumptive nominee.

“Number two, remember all this talk about how I don’t have the Black support? Come on. Give me a break. Come with me. Watch. Watch.” (“Morning Joe”)

Advertisement

It would be shocking if Biden didn’t win a strong majority of Black voters. But the real question is how much support he bleeds among this extremely important and often overwhelmingly Democratic group. And virtually every poll shows him struggling, relative to past Democrats.

Democrats haven’t taken less than 80 percent of the Black vote since at least 1972, and Biden won them 92 percent to 8 percent in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center’s Validated Voter survey.

A large-sample May poll from the Pew Research Center showed Biden ceding about twice as many Black voters — 18 percent — in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. That poll showed more than half of Black voters wanted to replace Biden in the race.

“The New York Times had me down 10 points before the debate — nine now, or whatever the hell it is. … New York Times had me behind before anything having to do with this [debate] — had me behind 10 points. Ten points, they had me behind. Nothing’s changed substantially since the debate in the New York Times poll.” (Friday ABC News interview)

The Times-Siena poll just before the debate actually had Biden trailing by between three and seven points, not 10 points, depending on whether you include third-party candidates and whether you focus on likely or registered voters.

Advertisement

(Indeed, no high-quality poll this year — as compiled by FiveThirtyEight — has shown Biden trailing Donald Trump by double digits.)

Biden’s deficit in the Times-Siena poll grew after the debate to between five and eight points, depending on how you slice it. The shifts in this and other polls have generally been within the margin of error, but there have been enough polls showing a small shift against Biden to logically assume there has been a shift.

Other polls since then also suggest voters are even more concerned about Biden’s age and acuity and view him less positively. His deficit in the national FiveThirtyEight average of polls has grown by about two points since the debate, and his average approval rating has hit an all-time low of about 37 percent.

“Pres Joe Biden is the only person standing between us and another Donald Trump term …” (Biden spokesman T.J. Ducklo on Saturday)

While not explicitly saying that only Biden can beat Trump, that has been the tenor of much of the pushback. Biden and his allies will often note that he’s the only candidate who has actually beaten Trump (in 2020), for instance.

For what it’s worth, Biden said in December that “probably 50” Democrats were capable of defeating Trump. Months earlier, Biden said that he wasn’t the “only” one who could beat Trump and protect democracy but that he was “best-positioned” to do it. (Trump, it bears noting, has been involved in a total of only three competitive campaigns, including the 2016 primaries and general election.)

As for whether Biden is best-positioned? The limited polling we have shows other Democrats performing similarly to Biden in some cases and better in a couple of cases. Michelle Obama leads Trump by double digits in a Reuters-Ipsos poll, and Vice President Harris did slightly better than Biden in the CNN poll (though worse than Biden in other polls).

And many other potential candidates are far less well-known, which often depresses poll numbers. That leaves open the possibility that voters could find them more compelling than a president with a 37 percent approval rating.

The fact that many Democratic Senate candidates are currently running better than Biden in their states would surely suggest that someone else could at least theoretically be stronger in the presidential race. Of course, that’s just in theory.

Advertisement

“I don’t care what those big names [liberals and Democrats suggesting he drop out] think. They were wrong in 2020. They were wrong in 2022 about the red wave. They’re wrong in 2024. … Not only were they wrong, I said they were wrong beforehand. … I was not surprised; I predicted it.” (“Morning Joe”)

Biden was counted out by some in the 2020 primaries, after losing the first three states. (His big win in South Carolina put him on course for victory.) But he was the widely acknowledged favorite in the general election throughout. And general elections are more predictable, because of partisanship.

As for 2022, while plenty of analysts and politicians floated the possibility of a “red wave,” that generally didn’t come from liberals and Democrats. And high-quality polling was not as troubling for Democrats then as it is now. Indeed, predictions of a red wave largely ignored the quite-accurate polls.

“I carried an awful lot of the Democrats the last time I ran in 2020.” (ABC News)

Biden did over-perform most key Democratic Senate candidates in the 2020 election — 8 of 10, to be exact — making it plausible that his performance helped them.

Advertisement

There is some question about how much of that was voters just not liking Trump, but exit polls showed a slight majority of voters (52 percent) had a favorable opinion of Biden at the time.

That said, Biden’s image is in a far different place now; his favorable rating is about 38 percent. (Favorability is more of a personal measure, while approval pertains to job performance.)

“But if any of these guys don’t think I should run, run against me. Go ahead. Announce for president. Challenge me at the convention.” (“Morning Joe”)

There is no plausible path for anyone else at the convention if Biden doesn’t drop out. But that’s not because the base doesn’t want it, necessarily; it’s because the vast majority of the delegates are pledged to Biden after his performance in the primaries.

“The voters — and the voters alone — decide the nominee of the Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that.” (Monday letter to fellow Democrats)

Advertisement

It’s valid to point out that Biden was the overwhelming choice of Democratic primary voters. Big-name Democrats could have challenged him. They didn’t, for a variety of reasons, and he won big.

Having delegates pick the new nominee or coronating Harris is clearly less of a democratic process.

But the idea that urging him to drop out is ignoring democracy is a bit of a stretch. His allies aren’t talking about delegates overturning the results; they are talking about persuading Biden to willingly drop out in light of new evidence raising concerns about his ability to campaign. And voters who were reluctant to vote for him in the primaries didn’t have a real, viable alternative.





Source link

Advertisement

Washington

Trae Young, Washington Wizards agree to new 4-year, $212M contract: Source

Published

on

Trae Young, Washington Wizards agree to new 4-year, 2M contract: Source


Half a year can be an eternity in the NBA.

Seven months ago, as Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks headed toward a divorce, Young’s value within the league had never been lower.

On Monday, Young and the Washington Wizards agreed to a new four-year, maximum-salary contract worth approximately $212.9 million, according to a league source. The fourth year of the contract will be a player option.

Young’s first-year salary is estimated to be $49.5 million, which amounts to 30 percent of the projected 2026-27 salary cap of $165 million. During the 2029-30 season, the final year of the contract, Young will earn $56.9 million if he accepts his player option.

Advertisement

Wizards officials would love it, of course, if Young can return to the form that made him an All-NBA Third Team player during the 2021-22 season. But at the very least, they place significant value on knowing that their team’s offense will start with him on most occasions, and that he will be around to shoulder a large portion of the scoring load while the team’s young players, who comprise the team’s long-term nucleus, continue to improve.

Wizards get the No. 1 draft pick. Will it make a difference?

David Aldridge

That Young will receive such large annual salaries no doubt will come as a shock to many observers, especially after Young’s reputation took a beating toward the end of his Hawks tenure. The NBA rumor mill, which is often inaccurate, predicted months ago that any new deal between Young and the Wizards would average no more than $40 million annually.

But in recent weeks, Wizards decision-makers became convinced that, with the NBA’s new anti-tanking measures compelling more teams to compete, Young was going to command maximum-salary contract offers from other franchises through either a straight free-agent signing or a sign-and-trade proposal.

Advertisement

Because the Wizards hold Young’s Bird rights, the Wizards had the latitude to offer Young up to a five-year contract with 8 percent annual raises. But Young’s new four-year deal instead features 5 percent year-over-year raises, the maximum year-over-year raise that any other team could have offered Young as a non-Bird free agent. For Washington, the difference between signing Young to 5 percent raises instead of 8 percent raises will amount to a total savings of $8.9 million over four years.

Wizards officials are not concerned that Young’s new contract will age poorly and prevent them from making future moves to improve their roster. Anthony Davis, who is due to earn $58.5 million in 2026-27, and Young are now Washington’s highest-paid players on its young roster, but the person with the third-largest salary is big man Alex Sarr, who will be paid the relatively small sum of $12.3 million this season. At the earliest, the Wizards do not expect to approach the dreaded first apron until the 2028-29 season, when any new rookie-scale contract extensions for Sarr and Kyshawn George would go into effect.

Plus, Wizards officials reason that Young, who will turn 28 years old in September, will remain in his prime years through the end of his contract. The onerous large contracts that age the worst — potentially Jimmy Butler’s current deal with the Golden State Warriors and Paul George’s current deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, for example — tend to be contracts in which players already are past their primes at the start of their contracts.

Young is by no means a perfect player. Undersized at 6 feet 1, and undeniably more focused on the offensive end of the floor, he tended to be a significant defensive liability throughout his Hawks tenure. That trend could worsen if he begins to lose a step (or two) over the next several years.

At the same time, though, Wizards officials have always known that their lineups would have to feature enough positional size and enough defensive-oriented players to compensate for Young’s shortcomings — in the same way that the defensive liabilities of LaMelo Ball, Jalen Brunson, Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving and Donovan Mitchell (and others) are compensated for by their respective teams.

Advertisement

The Wizards’ decision-makers believe Davis and youngsters Bilal Coulibaly, Davis, George, Sarr and whomever they pick first overall in Tuesday night’s draft will develop into strong enough defenders to help Young.

Young appeared in only five games for Washington last season after his trade from Atlanta for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. That was a large enough sample size to demonstrate how his gravity and his passing skill could create open shots for his new teammates. George, Tre Johnson and others should receive more wide-open 3-point looks when Young directs the offense, and Sarr and Davis should feast on lobs from Young in pick-and-rolls.

Only 16 players in NBA history have averaged at least 20 points and 10 assists per game in the same season, according to Basketball Reference. Young is one of those players, and he has done it three times, during the 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons. The only other players who have had at least three seasons of at least 20 points and 10 assists per game are James Harden (four times), Kevin Johnson (three times), Magic Johnson (three times), Oscar Robertson (five times), Isiah Thomas (four times) and Russell Westbrook (five times).

The franchise expects Young to make Washington’s offense more efficient and, because opponents will have to take the ball out of their net more often, give Washington’s defense more opportunities to set itself.

July 6 is the first day when new free-agent contracts may be signed and made official.

Advertisement



Source link

Continue Reading

Washington

Trump claims vandals will force drainage of algae-plagued Reflecting Pool – WTOP News

Published

on

Trump claims vandals will force drainage of algae-plagued Reflecting Pool – WTOP News


President Trump did not provide evidence that vandals damaged the Reflecting Pool. The $14 million renovation marked the latest in his efforts to beautify Washington, D.C.

In an aerial view from the Washington Monument, crews remove algae from the bottom of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool after recent renovations on June 19, 2026.
(Courtesy CNN)

Courtesy CNN

algae in the reflecting pool
Algae floats from the bottom of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool after recent renovations, in Washington, D.C., on June 19, 2026.
(Courtesy CNN)

Courtesy CNN

Reflecting pool after renovations
A view of the Reflecting Pool after recent renovations following a directive from President Donald Trump to paint it blue in Washington, D.C., on June 16, 2026.
(Courtesy CNN)

Courtesy CNN

Reflecting pool during renovations
The Lincoln Memorial is seen at the top as the blue coating of the Reflecting Pool continues, Tuesday, May 19, 2026, in Washington.
(Courtesy CNN)

Courtesy CNN

Advertisement

(CNN) — President Donald Trump claimed Saturday, without providing evidence, that vandals damaged the algae-plagued Reflecting Pool on the National Mall and that the water will need to be drained for repairs.

Trump said police arrested “many additional people” for the vandalism, though one told CNN he was merely touching a piece of partially detached blue material from the recent renovation.

A senior administration official said police arrested five people for vandalism and issued federal citations to five others. The official said there were 14 police reports over vanadlism including for an alleged incident where a more than 250-foot section was cut with a blade.

“The Reflecting Pool was never so beautiful as it was just one week ago,” Trump said, adding that it will repaired quickly. Trump’s recent renovation, totaling $14 million, marked the latest in the president’s efforts to beautify Washington, DC, with architectural changes that have included building a White House ballroom and refurbishing run-down fountains.

Now, what was meant to be a straightforward task to return the century-old pool to its intended glory ahead of America’s 250th anniversary has become a spectacle, drawing tourists and locals to the pool for the wrong reason.

Advertisement

Three-time US Olympian David Hearn told CNN that police arrested him Friday after he said he touched a flap of blue material partially detached from the bottom of the pool. Hearn, who says he has a background in material science, told CNN he checked it out following a bike ride after reading reports of algae in the water and paint or sealant peeling off the bottom.

Hearn said he was curious about a partially attached blue flap he saw at the bottom of the Reflecting Pool. Upon reaching into the water, Hearn said he “sort of felt the end” and “bent it around a little bit.”

Hearn said a US National Park Service staffer instructed him not to reach into the water. After Hearn returned to his bike, he said was soon encountered by National Guard members and eventually arrested by the US Park Police. He said he was charged with destruction and defacing government property and disobeying a government employee.

The Olympic canoeist denied vandalizing the Reflecting Pool and said his actions were that of a “curious citizen.”

“There’s nothing about the Reflecting Pool that was in any different condition after I left there than it had before I went by there yesterday. I didn’t remove anything. I didn’t break, tear, peel, or rip, or destroy anything,” Hearn said Saturday.

Advertisement

He is set to appear in court on July 9. CNN has reached out to the US Park Police and the National Park Service to ask about Hearn’s account and for information on any other arrests.

Pet project for the president

Earlier this year, the president described the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool as “absolutely filthy,” vowing to clean up the landmark and make it “look gorgeous, beautiful” so it reflects the federal monuments around it.

But with the Fourth of July and America’s 250th anniversary fast approaching, the pool that sits near the feet of Abraham Lincoln’s statue has instead come to reflect the deep divisions over those beautification efforts — and Trump’s presidency itself.

Trump on Friday first echoed claims that surfaced in right-wing circles that the pool’s broader problems are a result of vandalism, and linked it to the etching of “8647” into the grass on the National Mall days prior, adding that law enforcement is investigating.

“We’ve had some real problems with Vandalism at the beautiful Reflecting Pool,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, without citing evidence. He said the algae was “75% gone” and the “vandalized” area will be fixed early next week.

Advertisement

Tourists and local residents alike have flocked to the site in recent days, shooting video of the murky green water for social media posts that feature either a condemnation of Trump’s presidency or a passionate defense of the effort to clean up DC. Some peeled off strips of the blue material to take as souvenirs. Others filmed federal workers pouring bottles of hydrogen peroxide into the water.

The Interior Department has dismissed the visible signs of algae that have only become more abundant as DC’s warm, muggy weather fosters its growth. In a post on X Wednesday, the department’s press office touted its efforts to clear out the algae and described the water as being “crystal clear.”

CNN has reached out to the Interior Department for comment and additional details on the cleanup efforts.

Trump set out in late March to accomplish the renovation that has eluded previous presidents. In a post on Truth Social, he criticized the Biden administration for not taking on the project after a $34 million reconstruction effort under President Barack Obama proved unsuccessful.

In the weeks that followed, Trump expanded the scope of the project and ordered cosmetic changes, including painting the bottom of the pool “American flag blue.” The paint change immediately sparked a lawsuit from a nonprofit group, which argued the project violated federal laws requiring the Interior Department to complete a consultation process before beginning the work.

Advertisement

The president also wanted the project to be complete before July Fourth, an expedited timeline that the administration acknowledged drove up the cost — nearly seven times as much as the initial estimate of $1.8 million.

Trump made a visit to the site to survey progress, and weeks before it was complete, he began celebrating by posting an AI-generated image to Truth Social of him and some of his Cabinet members smiling while floating in the pool.

‘Residual algae’ woes

But just a day after the reservoir was filled with water, algae was already visible from the water’s edge.

The Interior Department told CNN at the time that the algae was “residual” and a normal part of the early process of restarting water flow.

However, within days, clumps of algae took over the pool, prompting the administration to send in workers to vacuum it out, install a filtration known as the “ozone nanobubbler” and dump in gallons of hydrogen peroxide.

Advertisement

To make matters worse for the Trump administration, earlier this week, blue material at the bottom of pool began peeling off. It is unclear whether the material is paint or sealant or what caused it to come up.

Democrats online were quick to gloat.

“You can’t make this up: after railing about waste, fraud, and abuse, the Trump Administration spent $14 million on a reflecting pool reno that’s now peeling and chock full of algae,” Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon said in a post on X. “I’m pressing to get answers for this embarrassing waste of resources.”

Beyond lawmakers, the pool saga has prompted an online debate, filled with false claims and conspiracy theories.

Left-leaning social media users latched onto a clip of a Fox News personality defending the renovation, incorrectly claiming that he was describing the visibly green water as blue. (He was referring to the pool’s bottom.)

Advertisement

Meanwhile, conservative media personality Grant Stinchfield alleged the excessive algae is a product of liberal “sabotage.”

“Is it nefarious? I tend to think so,” Stinchfield told his online viewers from outside the Reflecting Pool.

A video posted by conservative influencer Nick Sortor on Thursday night has also garnered attention. The video appeared to show “8647” traced into the algae at the bottom of the pool. CNN could not independently see that tracing on Saturday. When used as slang, the number 86 can refer to getting rid of or tossing something out. Trump is the 47th president. The phrase has recently been used to signal opposition to Trump.

Outside the pool, a collection of curiosity seekers and social media influencers have also gathered. One woman showed up with a banner painted with a green “Algae” as she chanted, “Algae’s smarter than MAGA.”

Matthew Weimer of California, who was in Washington, DC, to visit friends, applauded the renovation.

Advertisement

“I think it’s pretty great that somebody cared enough to do something about it,” Weimer said. When asked about criticisms over the pool, he said: “The people who are criticizing, what are they doing to make things better?”

Qayla Sykes, who visited from Connecticut for a bachelorette party, made a quick stop at the National Mall to take in the spectacle.

“It looks pretty gross. I’ve taken about like 20 pictures already, especially of the people cleaning it, because I don’t know if I’ll ever see this again in my lifetime,” she said. “Hopefully not.”

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.

Advertisement



Source link

Continue Reading

Washington

Warm, dry summer outlook could fade Washington’s green and raise fire danger

Published

on

Warm, dry summer outlook could fade Washington’s green and raise fire danger


Sunny skies in Seattle may be giving soccer fans and visitors a picture-perfect look at the Pacific Northwest, but forecasters say the region’s signature green can fade quickly if summer turns hot and dry.

The latest 8-to-14-day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for normal, or slightly above normal, precipitation for Washington state. Forecasters say that is good news for early summer.

SEE ALSO | Puget Sound region braces for more record June heat; data finds many local homes lack A/C

Temperatures, however, are expected to run warmer than usual in the coming weeks. Government forecasters are projecting a 33% to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures over the next several weeks.

Advertisement

Looking deeper into the summer, NOAA’s outlook for July, August and September calls for a 33% to 50% chance of below-normal precipitation in western Washington.

The National Weather Service also expects a hotter-than-normal summer overall, with a 60% to 70% chance of above-normal temperatures.

With summer now underway, fire danger is also a growing concern. The newest fire danger map from the Washington Department of Natural Resources shows high or very high fire danger in central and eastern Washington. The western half of the state is currently listed at moderate fire danger.

Drought conditions are also showing up in parts of the state. The Washington state drought map from the U.S. Department of Agriculture lists parts of western Washington as abnormally dry. Parts of eastern Washington are in a moderate to severe drought.

Forecasters say the immediate signs do not point to extremely dry conditions in western Washington, but residents should be prepared for hotter weather as summer settles in.

Advertisement



Source link

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending