While there is still plenty of time until the 2024 college football season kicks off — for BYU and Utah State, the season is 100 days away, and 98 for Utah — that doesn’t stop the influx of discussion about the upcoming year.
One of the staples of preseason chatter is ESPN’s SP+ rankings, and earlier this week, Bill Connelly released his latest edition, i.e., the post-spring edition, and there are varying expectations for the three Utah FBS schools.
For the Utes, the 2024 season presents the chance to make a big impression in a new conference, the Big 12, while making a run at the expanded College Football Playoff with Cam Rising back and healthy.
For the Cougars, this year is projected to be another difficult learning season as the program adjusts to life at the power conference level.
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And for the Aggies, there’s been plenty of turnover again, though perhaps less pessimism surrounds the program heading into 2024 — and a hope the school can finish in the upper half of the Mountain West.
What does Connelly’s latest SP+ rankings — which are calculated on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history — project for these three schools?
These insights give a glimpse at how Utah, BYU and Utah State are viewed on a national scale heading into the year.
As Connelly explains, “SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”
Where does BYU football rank in ESPN’s post-spring SP+ rankings?
BYU ranks No. 67 nationally in the SP+ metrics with an overall minus-2.0 rating, a two-spot drop from the preseason SP+ rankings released in February.
That includes BYU rating No. 63 on offense, No. 84 on defense and No. 11 on special teams.
By comparison, the Cougars were No. 60 overall in last year’s post-spring ESPN SP+ rankings. BYU went 5-7 last season.
The Cougars rank 12th among the new-look Big 12 Conference in the SP+ rankings, just ahead of Colorado (No. 69) and Cincinnati (No. 70) and just behind Baylor (No. 61). Only two of BYU’s conference games this season — at Houston (No. 79) and vs. Arizona State (No. 88), both in late November — come against Big 12 teams below the Cougars in the SP+ rankings.
There are four Big 12 teams in the top 25 of the SP+ rankings: Kansas State (No. 17), Utah (No. 18), Oklahoma State (No. 20) and Arizona (No. 24). BYU plays all four this season, with only one road game at the Utes.
BYU is ranked more than 40 spots below one of its two FBS nonconference opponents — SMU comes in at No. 23 — while the other, Wyoming, is behind the Cougars, at No. 87.
The Big 12 is third among all FBS leagues in average SP+ ranking, behind only the SEC and Big Ten.
BYU ranks 55th nationally in returning production at 65%, per Connelly’s numbers. That includes ranking No. 52 on offense (66%) and No. 51 on defense (64%).
Where does Utah football rank in ESPN’s post-spring SP+ rankings?
Utah ranks No. 18 nationally in the SP+ metrics with an overall 16.1 rating, a one-spot drop from the preseason SP+ rankings released in February.
That includes Utah rating No. 39 on offense, No. 11 on defense and No. 34 on special teams.
By comparison, the Utes were No. 14 overall in last year’s post-spring ESPN SP+ rankings. Utah went 8-5 last season while dealing with a litany of injuries.
The Utes rank second among the new-look Big 12 Conference in the SP+ rankings in their first year in the league, just one spot behind Kansas State (No. 17) and ahead of Oklahoma State (No. 20) and Arizona (No. 24). Utah plays at Oklahoma State and home against Arizona in back-to-back weeks to start conference play, but avoids playing Kansas State.
Utah is ranked well ahead of its two FBS nonconference opponents — Baylor comes in at No. 61, while Utah State is No. 101. While both Utah and Baylor are now in the same conference, that will be a non-league game.
The Big 12 is third among all FBS leagues in average SP+ ranking, behind only the SEC and Big Ten.
Utah ranks 43rd nationally in returning production at 66%, per Connelly’s numbers. That includes ranking No. 61 on offense (63%) and No. 33 on defense (69%).
Big 12 teams in the post-spring SP+ rankings
17. Kansas State.
18. Utah.
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20. Oklahoma State.
24. Arizona.
30. Iowa State.
34. West Virginia.
36. TCU.
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37. Kansas.
42. Texas Tech.
48. UCF.
61. Baylor.
67. BYU.
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69. Colorado.
70. Cincinnati.
79. Houston.
88. Arizona State.
Where does Utah State football rank in ESPN’s post-spring SP+ rankings?
Utah State ranks No. 101 nationally in the SP+ metrics with an overall minus-11.0 rating, a six-spot drop from the preseason SP+ rankings released in February.
That includes Utah State rating No. 49 on offense, No. 132 on defense and No. 92 on special teams.
By comparison, the Aggies were No. 116 overall in last year’s post-spring ESPN SP+ rankings. Utah State went 6-7 last season with a bowl game loss.
The Aggies rank eighth among Mountain West teams in the SP+ rankings, just behind Colorado State (No. 98) and Hawaii (No. 100) and slightly ahead of San Diego State (No. 14).
Utah State’s conference opener will be against the highest-ranked MWC team in the SP+ rankings, No. 38 Boise State. The game is set for Oct. 5 in Boise.
Utah State will play three FBS nonconference opponents this year — both Utah (No. 18) and USC (No. 21) are in the SP+ top 25, while Temple is three from the bottom at No. 132.
The MWC is sixth among all FBS leagues in average SP+ ranking, behind fellow Group of 5 league the Sun Belt Conference and ahead of the American Athletic Conference.
Utah State ranks 86th nationally in returning production at 57%, per Connelly’s numbers. That includes ranking No. 43 on offense (68%) and No. 110 on defense (47%).
That’s a significant improvement over the post-spring SP+ returning production numbers last year, when Utah State ranked 127th nationally (41%).
Mountain West Conference teams in the post-spring SP+ rankings
This story is part of a series on the future of Utah’s Coal Country. Read the first story about labor in the coal mines.
On the Friday evening after Thanksgiving, the Main Street of Helper, Utah, was pitch-black. The streetlights were off, and patches of ice dotted the sidewalk. At 6 p.m., a collection of small lights came into view from the south end of the street and slowly clarified into a procession of school children, holding flameless candles in mitten-covered hands as they sang “Jingle Bells.”
A crowd of about 40 people followed the kids into a small snow-covered park. Everyone gathered around the stage, where Mayor Lenise Peterman read a proclamation from Gov. Spencer Cox declaring Helper as Utah’s Christmas Town for the 35th year.
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“Park City was trying to take our title,” said Mark Montoya, a co-director of Helper’s Christmas Festival, after Peterman read Cox’s statement. “But we didn’t let them. They don’t have a proclamation.” Montoya, an exuberant and warm middle-aged man, was born in Helper, a small town of 2,000 people in Carbon County, halfway between Salt Lake City and Moab, and he has never left.
The winners of the Miss Carbon County contest, wearing tiaras and sashes, took the stage next and led a countdown: “Ten, nine, eight. …” The crowd joined in, and the second they shouted “ONE,” the entire town lit up. Strings of white twinkle lights outlined each brick building. A colorfully illuminated train decoration brightened the park, which is next to the Union Pacific station where the “helper” engine — the town’s namesake — still waits, ready to assist trains up the nearby steep canyon. Even Big John, a towering statue of a coal miner, was wearing a Santa hat.
Helper’s two-week Christmas Festival started in 1990, as nearby coal mines were shutting down and laying off workers. The once-bustling town was, for years, the hub of Utah’s Coal Country known for its bars, brothels (the last one closed in 1977) and an assortment of restaurants whose diverse cuisine reflected the immigrants drawn to the mines from all over the world. “We’re the black sheep of Utah,” Montoya told High Country News. By the 1980s, though, Helper was practically a ghost town. “It was just desolate, like there was nothing here,” Montoya said. “That was half the reason why people started the annual Helper Light Parade. They did it to kind of lift the spirits of the community.”
In the 1990s, artists began buying abandoned buildings on Main Street, lured by the low prices, the town’s eccentric industrial history and the nearby scenery, especially the surrounding Book Cliffs. In 1995, they started an Arts Festival that attracted some visitors. Then the Balance Rock Eatery opened in 1999, and travelers on their way to Moab two hours south began pulling off the highway to grab lunch. Life returned to Helper as tourism increased, and some of the young professionals who had fled Carbon County began moving back home.
“We’re the black sheep of Utah.”
Montoya, however, had never had any desire to leave. “I just love this town,” he said. He has experienced Helper’s transition firsthand: He’s been involved in the Christmas Festival since its inception, selling hot chocolate out of an old Coca-Cola wagon when he was a teenager. Montoya, who works as the town’s mail carrier, also manages several new AirBnBs and long-term rentals. “I’d go from walking down the street and seeing all these vacant, dilapidated buildings to this,” he said, gesturing to the nearly full Main Street. “This is so much better.”
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Change is hard, though, and not all locals support the transition from a coal-based economy to one that relies on tourism and the arts. Since 2020, Carbon County hasn’t produced any coal, and the Carbon Power Plant, just three miles north of town, shuttered in 2015. The residents who still depend on the coal industry travel 40 to 90 minutes south to work at the mines and power plants in Emery County. For Helper, the energy transition is about more than fuel replacement; it’s about diversifying the economy while also honoring the generations of workers who kept the lights on.
Montoya likens what’s happening in Helper to producing an ongoing play. “It takes everybody to make that play work,” he said. “And when you’re telling a story, sometimes you introduce new characters along the way.”
Scenes from the Helper Light Parade. The town’s two-week Christmas Festival started in 1990, as nearby coal mines were shutting down and laying off workers.
A FEW DAYS AFTER the lighting ceremony, locals gathered in the town cemetery for the annual Luminary Memorial Service. Historically, they used classic luminarias — paper bags aglow with candles — but this year they placed purple, green and blue solar lights near the headstones.
Some of the oldest graves there belong to Italian families who immigrated to the area in the late 1800s. On the south end of Main Street, “welcome” is engraved on the sidewalk in the 27 languages — from Greek to Japanese — that were spoken in Helper at the beginning of the 20th century.
Early miners in Carbon County faced racism, poverty and the daily, deadly risks of hard work underground. “These were really harsh conditions,” Roman Vega, curator of Helper’s Western Mining and Railroad Museum, said. “You had a lot of accidents. You had a lot of deaths.”
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The Italian workers went on strike in the early 1900s, and Mary Harris Jones — the legendary “Mother” Jones, the iconic labor organizer — marched down Main Street with the miners. The United Mine Workers of America became a strong presence in the region, and every year on Labor Day, the UMWA celebrated the local workers and labor unions. Montoya fondly remembers the excitement — a big picnic, coal-shoveling contest and games for kids.
Montoya’s own great-grandparents moved to Carbon County from New Mexico in the 1940s. “All my coal-mining ancestors, my uncles and my grandfathers, they were all union members,” Montoya said. His father, who worked for the railroad, was also part of a union. Today, Montoya continues that legacy as the union steward for the Northwest region of the National Association of Letter Carriers.
Montoya has always considered Helper’s Main Street to be his “stomping grounds,” ever since he was a kid stocking shelves at the pharmacy in exchange for a soda. He has spent more than 25 years delivering the mail and, on his route, he can track the town’s evolution. Main Street’s once-abandoned buildings are now brightened by neon signs and fresh paint. Eighteen of them were restored by local developer Gary DeVincent and his wife, Malarie, a former Helper City Council member, who also own some of the AirBnBs and rentals Montoya manages.
“(The tourists) love the history of old towns,” Montoya said. “It’s a big draw.”
DURING THE FIRST WEEK of December, the Main Street businesses decorated their storefronts. Friar Tuck’s Barbershop, owned by Kylee Howell, won the window-decorating contest. A toy train that once circled her grandparents’ Christmas tree ran along the front of the display, one of its cars filled with snow-covered coal. In the corner, a tall rainbow-striped candy cane from Montoya served as a festive replacement for Howell’s usual pride flag.
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The stripes on the barber pole on Howell’s shop have been twirling there for generations. Howell largely cuts the hair of the “blue-collar dudes” who work at the region’s remaining coal mines, power plants and manufacturing businesses. According to Headwater Economics, such non-service jobs were still the highest-paying jobs in Carbon County last year, though they employed the fewest people. Most jobs these days are in the lower-paying service industries, such as retail. Over 12% of families in Carbon County live below the poverty line, the third-highest rate in the state.
Howell has only been in Helper for four years, but she isn’t new to Carbon County; she lived in the nearby towns of Price and East Carbon until she moved to Salt Lake County as a teenager. Her family went to Helper twice a year, attending the Arts Festival on the third weekend in August and watching the light parade every December. She has fond memories of bundling up, sipping hot chocolate and watching the bright floats trundle down Main Street.
After Howell moved away, though, she never thought she’d return. Then, about four years ago, she and her wife found themselves looking for somewhere more affordable and rural to live.
Helper’s revitalized Main Street first sold Howell on the town. What solidified it for her, though, was the fact that Helper’s mayor was a lesbian. When one of her clients in Salt Lake first told her that, Howell didn’t believe it. But she looked it up, and sure enough, “There’s Lenise with her carabiner and cargo shorts,” Howell recalled.
Lenise Peterman moved to Helper about 10 years ago, a few years after her wife, Kate Kilpatrick, ventured here to fulfill her dream of being an artist. Since then, Kilpatrick has recorded the stories and painted the portraits of roughly 180 Helper locals.
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When Peterman ran for mayor, she fully embraced the economic transition. “While we can respect and honor what the coal industry has done and been for us, it’s not the path to the future, and we need to decide if we’re just going to hold our breath and wait for a coal mine to close or a plant to close,” she told High Country News, “or we can proactively determine who we are and what we want to do, and let’s go do it.” That was her platform, and the town voted for it.
Now, Helper’s Main Street is busy nearly every weekend during summer, from its “First Friday” gallery strolls to the bimonthly Helper Saturday Vibes street fair, originally brought to Helper by the organizer of Park City’s summer market.
It’s hard work keeping a small town afloat, though. Peterman constantly applies for grants to fund infrastructure improvements. Tourism brings revenue through sales and transient room taxes, and the city has updated things like event permits to mitigate the impact on city resources. But the changes have also sparked controversy: New permits have increased the cost of putting on some special events. Last summer, one longtime local, Mike James, moved his Outlaw Car Show, which he started three years before the Christmas Festival began, to a town 35 miles away.
“While we can respect and honor what the coal industry has done and been for us, it’s not the path to the future.”
There have also been dramatic changes in the housing market. A couple of decades ago, Montoya said, there may have been as many as 20 houses for sale on his mail route. Now, there’s maybe two at any given time, and they’ll likely be snapped up within a week, he said. In a roughly eight-year period, he watched one small two-bedroom house go from $68,000 to $175,000. Now, a 1,600-square-foot home sells for over $400,000.
While Montoya still views tourism as a good path for the town, he said the AirBnBs should stay on Main Street. “I don’t think there’s a need for that in neighborhoods,” he said. “Those houses need to be available for people to move into.”
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Small destination towns like Helper can fall into what researchers at Headwaters Economics call the “amenity trap.” As a place becomes increasingly attractive to tourists and wealthy homebuyers — people who want amenities — it often becomes too expensive for all but the very well-off. The coal industry has always had its booms and busts, but a tourism-based economy can prove equally precarious, creating an economy based on low-paying service jobs and unaffordable housing.
Peterman told High Country News that the town’s planning and zoning commission is looking at possibly limiting AirBnBs, though she’s “not super keen” on telling people what they can do with their property. Ultimately, Peterman views tourism as just one piece of the puzzle. She hopes the town can attract another industry that resonates with its amenities. “Why aren’t we building ATVs?” she wondered.
HOUSING COSTS IN HELPER have gone up, but they’re still a far cry from the prices in Moab and Park City. Howell, Montoya and others told High Country News that they’re not worried about Helper following in the footsteps of Utah’s more famous former mining towns. Helper lacks the amenities that other, wealthier towns boast; there is no nearby ski resort to attract millions of visitors or Arches National Park in the backyard. Instead, visitors have access to less well-known public lands, such as the San Rafael Swell, and, above all, the town has a history that it takes pride in.
While Helper’s transformation into an art and tourist town might seem like it conflicts with its mining history, those two strands are also intertwined. One of the co-founders of the Arts Festival, Thomas Williams, was a miner in Utah’s coalfields before becoming a painter. Williams passed away a few years ago, but his paintings of his fellow miners still hang at the Balance Rock Eatery.
Scenes from a Saturday morning “Breakfast with Santa.” Residents gather; Billy Deeter carves ham; Chanel and Jesse Candelaria, with their children Lennen, 8, and Sunny, 2, visit with Santa.
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This relationship has helped some former miners embrace the changes. “I’m really happy about it,” Celso Montoya, Mark Montoya’s uncle and a retired coal miner, said. “These artists come here, and they’ve brought the town back up.” He loves the new brewery that opened on the north edge of Main Street a year and a half ago. He always gets the prosciutto sandwich. “After I finish it, and I’m walking out, I look up and say, ‘Take me, Lord, if you want.’”
As Helper continues to move forward, the Christmas Festival offers a sense of continuity. During its last two days, Brenda Deeter, who co-directs Christmas Town with Mark Montoya, spent hours cooking a “Breakfast with Santa” and back-to-back chili dinners in the town’s civic center. It was a true family affair, with Deeter’s children, grandchildren and in-laws flipping waffles by morning and dishing chili over kielbasa sausages — a town classic, a remnant from its history of immigration — by night.
“These artists come here, and they’ve brought the town back up.”
While the locals devoured the chili, Montoya and his friend Tyler Nelsen, who works at the Hunter coal-fired power plant 45-minutes south, drove around in a golf cart to line up the floats.
Local businesses, from Utah Power Credit Union to the nearby RV Park, created displays with thousands of lights. Intermountain Electronics, the region’s major manufacturing business, stole the show, though, with workers dressed in reindeer costumes who appeared to fly through the air, pulling a red sleigh: They sat on a long black beam attached to a lifting machine called a telehandler, and were raised and lowered by the driver as they cruised down Main Street. The float made Montoya, and the thousands filling the sidewalks, giddy with delight.
The festival ended with a fireworks show set to a soundtrack of Christmas songs on the local radio station. Montoya watched from behind Main Street, next to the railroad track, the outline of the Book Cliffs visible at the edge of town.
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“I want people to discover this place,” he said.
Reporting for this project was supported by theMIT Environmental Solutions Initiative Journalism Fellowship.
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Those who asked Santa Claus for a White Christmas may find what they wanted under the tree… or better yet, on the trees as storms are expected to bring snow to much of Utah on the holiday.
TRACK THE STORMS: Get real-time weather by downloading the FREE Utah Weather Authority app
Southern Utah will wake up on Christmas morning with snow already likely on the ground as a storm moves in overnight. The winds then turn in the afternoon and the snow arrives along the Wasatch Front with a few inches possible in the northern Utah valleys.
Salt Lake City is currently seeing a 60-70 percent chance of receiving over a trace amount of snow, according to the National Weather Service, with the possibility of accumulating snowfall in the benches.
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The mountains are expected to get a decent dump of snow, which will please skiers and snowboarders who have waited through a disappointing start to winter. The resorts up the Cottonwood canyons can see up to 10 inches of snow.
Another storm is expected to impact many of the state’s mountains on Thursday and Friday. Overall, the northern mountain areas could receive up to 3 feet of snow throughout all the storms, with the higher amounts possible in the Bear River Mountains and upper Cottonwoods.
The Thursday-Friday storm will only bring light accumulations to valleys.
Barrett Hayton did not have a concrete answer for Utah Hockey Club’s lackluster second period.
“I don’t know. We’re going to have to sit down and talk about it. I think we have to figure out what causes that,” the forward said. “The mentality we have to figure out.”
It was Hayton’s third-period goal that pulled Utah within one after allowing the Dallas Stars to take a 3-1 lead in the middle frame. However, the attempted comeback was too little too late and the Stars took the two oh-so-valuable divisional points in a 3-2 win at Delta Center Monday night.
“We’re neck and neck [in the standings] with these guys. That’s a game we really needed and wanted,” Nick Bjugstad said. “Tried to fight back in the third, but that’s a good team. Can’t take a period off. That’s kind of what we did in the second.”
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(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) Dallas Stars left wing Mason Marchment (27) vies for the puck with Utah Hockey Club defenseman Olli Maatta (2) and Utah Hockey Club center Barrett Hayton (27) during the first period of the NHL game at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Monday, Dec. 23, 2024.
The Stars took a 1-0 lead midway through the first period with a goal from Colin Blackwell. Following a Utah turnover in the neutral zone, the Dallas forward broke out off the rush and sniped it past Karel Vejmelka from the right side.
Kevin Stenlund tied things 1-1 for Utah just over a minute later with his fifth goal of the month and sixth of the season. The veteran forward earned net-front positioning and tipped Ian Cole’s blast from the point in at 12:41.
The back-to-back fatigue became evident in the second period for Utah. The team looked disjointed and slow and it cost it.
“It’s a veteran team on the other side who weathered the storm in the first period,” head coach André Tourigny said. “Then they got us where they wanted us and we didn’t play particularly well at that.”
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(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Hockey Club goaltender Karel Vejmelka (70) and defenseman Vladislav Kolyachonok (52) react to a goal from the Dallas Stars during the first period of the NHL game at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Monday, Dec. 23, 2024.
Dallas took advantage of its fresh legs by creating frequent odd-man situations simply by beating Utah to the puck.
That is how Roope Hintz’s goal unfolded. He and Mavrik Bourque blew past Stenlund and Michael Kesselring at Utah’s defensive blueline ahead of a give-and-go sequence which found Hintz uncovered in front. He wristed it in for the 2-1 advantage at 12:39.
Jamie Benn’s tally at 17:50 closely resembled the same play. Wyatt Johnston looped the puck behind the net before hitting a wide-open, net-front Benn who unleashed a one-timer to make it 3-1 heading into the third period.
“I think that second period is the learning lesson, obviously. We knew coming into this game it’s a four-point game, division game. Those matchups are huge,” Hayton said. “We’re all pissed off about it and disappointed and frustrated in ourselves. That’s a big game and sucks for it to go that way.”
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(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) prepares to shoot as Utah Hockey Club left wing Matias Maccelli (63) defends during the second period of the NHL game at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Monday, Dec. 23, 2024.
Utah’s power play — which had been on a seven-game conversion streak — could barely string passes together and did not establish a cycle in the two chances it was given through 40 minutes. The third line of Bjugstad, Lawson Crouse and Matias Maccelli, however, had noticeable jump at the start of the night as it tried to get its production going.
“When you’re not scoring as a line you try to figure out what to do. But for us it’s just simplifying,” Bjugstad said. “Just have to find a way to score. That’s kind of all I’ve got on that front.”
Hayton’s goal came at 11:39 of the final stanza and gave his team just under nine minutes to hunt for an equalizer it ultimately did not find. After Utah won an offensive-zone faceoff, Hayton got between the hash marks and deflected in Nick Schmaltz’s shot from the left side for the 3-2 scoreline and his second goal in two games.
Clayton Keller picked up the secondary assist on the play which extended his point streak to five games — he’s had 10 points through that stretch.
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“Proud of the effort of the guys,” Tourigny said. “Proud of the pushback we had. We all talk about the second period which is totally true and fair, but in the third period we had a hell of a pushback and the guys never quit.”
(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Hockey Club celebrate a goal against the Dallas Stars during the first period of the NHL game at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Monday, Dec. 23, 2024.
Utah will now have three NHL-mandated days off for the holidays before returning to Delta Center on Friday to host the Colorado Avalanche — another Central Division opponent.
Despite Utah’s two-game losing streak, the team remains confident about its overall play in December and the position it has put them in heading into the new year.
“It’s on us. They pushed, but we have to understand that’s game management,” Bjugstad said. “We’ve got to learn, we’ve got to move on. I think this team has a lot of upside so we want to fulfill that.”