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Colorado vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model

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Colorado vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model


A pair of Big 12 teams that have diverged from their preseason expectations meet up as No. 17 Colorado plays host to Utah on Saturday. Let’s check in with the new prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Colorado was picked to finish No. 11 in the Big 12 standings back during the preseason, but has moved into second-place in the conference with a 5-1 league record and controlling its destiny in the championship picture, and thus the College Football Playoff race.

Utah was the preseason Big 12 title favorite, but slid to 1-5 in conference play and ranking 108th among 134 FBS teams in scoring production, with 22 points per game.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Buffaloes and Utes square off in this Big 12 matchup?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Colorado and Utah compare in this Week 12 college football game.

The models are siding with the Buffaloes over the Utes, but by a very slim margin in this game.

SP+ predicts Colorado will defeat Utah by a projected score of 26 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 3.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Buffaloes a 58 percent chance of outright victory over the Utes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Colorado is an 11.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Colorado at -450 and for Utah at +340 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

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If you do, you’ll be in the company of a majority of bettors, who expect the Buffaloes will dominate the Utes by double digits, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Colorado is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big point spread.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Utah will either take out the Buffs in an upset, or keep the final margin under a dozen points in a loss.

Colorado is top 25 nationally by averaging out 10.5 points better than its opponents this season when adding up the points in the wins and losses.

Utah is 1 of 3 teams in FBS that comes in with a perfect 0.0 point margin in its games in 2024.

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Those margins have diverged over the last three games of the season.

Colorado has been 17.3 points better than the competition in that span, while Utah has been 3.3 points worse than opponents over that time.

Things even out a little more depending on the venue.

Utah has been 2.3 points better than opponents when playing on the road, while Colorado has been 5 points better on average than the other team when at home.

Most other analytical models also favor the Buffaloes over the Utes in this Big 12 clash.

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That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Colorado has emerged as the favorite at home, coming out ahead in 75 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the remaining 25 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Colorado is projected to be 9.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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More … Colorado vs. Utah prediction: What the analytics say

Colorado is second among Big 12 teams with a 24.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Buffaloes will win 9.4 games this season.

Utah hasn’t factored in the playoff conversation for quite a while, but there’s still a chance it can make a bowl game this postseason.

The index gives the Utes a win total projection of 5 games and a 24.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

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When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 10 a.m. Mountain
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Utah nonprofit creates events, experiences for disadvantaged children

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Utah nonprofit creates events, experiences for disadvantaged children


A simple moment watching a child laugh changed everything for Ivan Gonzalez.

Eight years ago, Gonzalez was working at the Ronald McDonald House when he had an idea to throw a birthday carnival for the kids staying there.

“Let’s do a carnival, birthday carnival for the kids,” he said.

MORE | Pay It Forward

What happened during that event stuck with him.

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“There I was watching this kid play whack-a-mole, just having a blast, laughing,” Gonzalez said. “And then I see his mom kind of with happy tears because he’s enjoying himself.”

That moment led to something bigger.

Gonzalez realized the experience shouldn’t stop with just one event or just one group of kids.

“I said, wait, we can do this not just for kids in the hospital,” he said with excitement.

So he started a nonprofit called Best Seat in the House, which creates events and experiences for children who often face difficult circumstances.

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“We provide events and experiences for disadvantaged kids,” Gonzalez said.

The organization serves children battling cancer and other medical conditions, refugee children, kids living in poverty, those in foster care and children with special needs.

“These kids grow up too fast,” Gonzalez said.

For Gonzalez, the mission is deeply personal.

“I grew up very poor,” he said.

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He remembers the people who stepped in for his family when they needed it most.

“The local church, we weren’t even a part of it,” he described. “My parents couldn’t afford Christmas gifts and I still remember the gifts they gave me. They didn’t even know me.”

Today, he hopes to create that same feeling for other children through his nonprofit.

“Kids live in poverty and they don’t know where the next meal is coming from, let alone going to a play or to a game,” Gonzalez said.

But for Gonzalez, the reward isn’t the events themselves, it’s the joy they create.

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“You can give me a billion dollars, all the money in the world,” he says as tears roll down his face. “I won’t trade these opportunitieskids just enjoying life.”

Because of his work giving back, KUTV and Mountain America Credit Union surprised Gonzalez with a Pay it Forward gift to help him continue creating those moments for kids across Utah.

For more information on supporting Best Seat in the House, click here.

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‘Don’t release him ever. Please.’ Family of slain Utah teen calls for justice at parole hearing

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‘Don’t release him ever. Please.’ Family of slain Utah teen calls for justice at parole hearing


SALT LAKE CITY — Francisco Daniel Aguilar says he’s sorry for shooting and killing his girlfriend, 16-year-old Jacqueline “Jacky” Nunez-Millan, a Piute High School sophomore, in 2023.

But just as he did when he was sentenced, he didn’t have much of an explanation on Tuesday as to why he shot her not once, but twice.

“It just kinda happened. I was mad. And I stepped out (of my truck) and started shooting,” he said. “When I saw her fall, I just kind of panicked, I just went and shot her again.”

But Jacky’s friends and family members say even before she was killed, Aguilar already had a history of violence, and they now want justice to be served.

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“You don’t accidentally take a gun, you don’t accidentally grab a knife … you don’t accidentally shoot someone, those are all choices,” a tearful Rosa Nunez, Jacky’s sister, said at Tuesday’s hearing. “Keep him where he needs to be.

“Don’t release him ever. Please.”

On Jan. 7, 2023, Aguilar, who was 17 at the time, got into a fight with his girlfriend, Jacky, shot her twice and left her body near a dirt road outside of Circleville, Piute County. He was convicted as an adult of aggravated murder and sentenced to a term of 25 years to up to life in prison.

Because of Aguilar’s age at the time of the offense, board member Greg Johnson explained Tuesday that the Utah Board of Pardons and Parole is required to hold a hearing much earlier than the 25-year mark, mainly to check on Aguilar and “see how things are going.” Aguilar, now 20, is currently being held in a juvenile secure care facility and will be transferred to the Utah State Prison when he turns 25 or earlier if he has discipline violations and is kicked out of the youth facility.

According to Aguilar’s sentencing guidelines, he will likely remain in custody until at least the year 2051.

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During Tuesday’s hearing, Aguilar told the board that he was feeling “stressed out” during his senior year of high school. He said he and Jacky would often have little arguments. But their bigger fight happened when he failed to get her a “promise ring” around Christmastime, he said.

On the night of the killing, the two were arguing about the promise ring and other items, Aguilar recalled. At one point, he grabbed a knife and then a gun because, he said, he wanted to “irritate” and “scare” Jacky. According to evidence presented in the preliminary hearing, Aguilar and his girlfriend had been “trying to make each other angry” when Aguilar took ammunition and a 9mm gun from his father’s room and then drove to the Black Hill area in his truck with Jacky.

Jacky’s friend, McKall Taylor, went looking for her that night and found her. But after Aguilar shot Jacky in the leg, he began shooting at Taylor, who had no choice but to run to her car to get away. Her car was hit multiple times by bullets. Aguilar then shot Jacky a second time as she lay on the ground and Taylor drove away.

On Tuesday, Taylor’s mother, Lori Taylor, read a statement to the board on her daughter’s behalf.

“My innocence and freedom was taken from me,” she said.

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McKall Taylor says the “horrifying events of that night will forever play in my head,” and the sounds of Jacky screaming and the gunshots as well as the sight of Jacky falling to the ground, will never go away.

“Francisco is a murderer who has zero remorse,” her letter states.

Likewise, Rosa Nunez told the board that for her and her family, “nothing in our world has felt safe since” that night as they all “continue to relive this horrific moment.”

After shooting Jacky and driving off, Aguilar says he called his father and “told him I was sorry for not being better, for not making good choices, I told him that I loved him. I was just planning on probably shooting myself, too.”

His father told him that although what he did wasn’t right, “he’d rather see me behind bars than in a casket,” and then told his son to “be a man about it. … This is where you have to change.”

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Aguilar was arrested after his tires were spiked by police.

“An apology won’t fix what I did. I’ll never be able to fix what I did. But I want to say I’m sorry,” he said Tuesday. “I don’t even know how to fix what I did. I’m hoping I’m on the right track now.”

Johnson noted that Aguilar has done well during his short time being incarcerated. But that doesn’t change the fact “the crime was horrific,” he said.

The full five-member board will now take a vote. The board could decide to schedule another parole hearing for sometime in the future or could order that Aguilar serve his entire life sentence. But even if that were to happen, Johnson says Aguilar could petition every so often for a redetermination hearing.

The board’s decision is expected in several weeks.

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The Key Takeaways for this article were generated with the assistance of large language models and reviewed by our editorial team. The article, itself, is solely human-written.



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Lawsuit claims Utah teen killed by counterfeit airbag

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Lawsuit claims Utah teen killed by counterfeit airbag


A wrongful death lawsuit filed in Utah alleges a counterfeit airbag turned a routine crash into a fatal explosion that killed a teenage driver within minutes.

Alexia De La Rosa graduated from Hunter High School in May of 2025. On July 30, 2025, she was involved in a crash.

The lawsuit alleges that when the vehicle’s driver-side airbag deployed, it detonated and sent metal and plastic shrapnel into the cabin.

MORE | Crashes

A large, jagged piece of metal struck Alexia in the chest, and she died minutes later, according to the complaint.

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The lawsuit, filed by Morgan & Morgan in Utah’s Third Judicial District Court, was brought on behalf of Tessie De La Rosa, as personal representative of the estate of her 17-year-old daughter.

The defendants are AutoSavvy Holdings Inc., AutoSavvy Dealerships LLC, and AutoSavvy Management Company LLC.

Morgan & Morgan alleges that the Hyundai Sonata had previously been declared a total loss after a 2023 crash and issued a salvage title. The suit claims AutoSavvy later purchased the vehicle and had it repaired — during which counterfeit, non-compliant, and defective airbag components were allegedly installed — before reselling it to the De La Rosa family.

The complaint further alleges that AutoSavvy knew or should have known the vehicle contained counterfeit and nonfunctional airbag components when it was sold.

“This is the third wrongful death lawsuit we have filed involving alleged counterfeit airbags that we believe turned survivable crashes into fatal incidents,” Morgan & Morgan founder John Morgan said in a statement. “No life should be cut short because a corporation puts profits above safety.”

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Attorney Andrew Parker Felix, who is leading the case, said the firm is committed to uncovering how allegedly illegal airbag inflators enter the stream of commerce and are installed in vehicles sold to consumers.

“To make this perfectly clear, these are not supposed to be in the United States at all,” Felix said. “They are not approved for use in any vehicle that’s being driven in the United States.”

“They don’t have approval from any governmental agency to be installed in vehicles that are driven within the United States and regulated here,” he added.

Morgan & Morgan says it is investigating at least three additional deaths involving other defendants and alleged counterfeit airbags.

KUTV 2News reached out to AutoSavvy multiple times by email and phone. We were told a member of the company’s legal team would be in touch, but as of publication we have not received a response.

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