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Sánchez defies Trump in political gamble as Madrid say no to war

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Sánchez defies Trump in political gamble as Madrid say no to war

Pedro Sánchez knows exactly what he is doing.

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By defying Donald Trump and doubling down on his bras de fer with the US president, the Spanish prime minister consolidates a two-fold strategy.

On the one hand, he seeks to mobilize his progressive electorate domestically, resuscitating a “no to war” movement which resonated strongly with Spanish voters during the US-led war against Iraq in 2003. Sánchez is also hoping for a moment akin to that of Dominique de Villepin: a Cassandra warning against an unjustified war that will bring disastrous consequences.

Only now it’s Iran.

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In doing so, he aims to consolidate his image as one of the last strongly progressive, socialist leaders in a global political environment shifting rightward under the influence of MAGA-aligned politics, at a time when left-wing parties across Europe are losing electoral ground and struggling to project a unified international voice.

His strategy, while bold, is also risky as it could leave Spain diplomatically isolated from the European consensus and trigger a trade war that could impact Spanish companies in the US. It also risks inflaming tensions within NATO where Madrid has pursued a somewhat independent strategic line. Intelligence-sharing is also crucial and may be compromised with national security ramifications if the US decides to weaponise it.

Still, far from looking for a ramp-off, Sánchez is double down on his bet.

“In 2003, a few irresponsible leaders dragged us into an illegal war into an illegal war in the Middle East that brought nothing but insecurity and pain,” Sánchez said Wednesday.

“No to violations of international law. No to the illusion that we can solve the world’s problems with bombs. No to repeating the mistakes of the past. No to war.”

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A clash choreographed to perfection

His campaign against the US-Israeli intervention in Iran comes after Trump threatened to impose a trade embargo on Spain in response to Madrid’s refusal to allow Washington to use its military bases to strike Iran from its territory.

Spain insisted any operation handled from the two bases it hosts in Rota and Moron should be limited to humanitarian assistance rather than offensive strikes, and that all activities must comply with international law. The move led to the withdrawal of U.S. aircraft from the bases according to radar information.

From the Oval office on Tuesday, Trump referred to Spain as an “unfriendly” and “terrible” ally. As he threatened a trade embargo in response, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz—who was visiting the White House—remained silent, Spain judged that the time had come to confront the world’s most powerful man and began preparing its response.

Sources close to the Spanish government late afternoon began to brief that, if Washington were to unilaterally terminate trade ties, it would have to do “in compliance with international law, EU-USA terms of trade and respecting private companies.”

By 8 p.m. Madrid time, the Prime Minister’s office informed journalists that Sánchez would deliver a “declaración institucional”—a statement typically reserved for solemn occasions—at 9 a.m. the following day. The announcement was made just ahead of the evening news broadcasts.

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Little was left to chance, reflecting Sánchez’s carefully managed communications strategy, which is often viewed as both highly effective but also opportunistic.

According to people familiar with the Moncloa palace, as the 17th-century inspired office of the prime minister is known, backtracking was never an option.

Instead, Madrid was clear it needed to respond forcefully, emphasizing Spain’s sovereignty, the consistency of its foreign policy from Ukraine to Gaza and Sánchez’s position as the only European leader standing up to Trump.

The Spanish Prime Minister delivered just that.

‘Our position is best resumed in four words: no to the war,” he said, adding that “23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into war in the Middle East.”

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“We were told it would destroy weapons of mass destruction, export democracy and guarantee global security. In hindsight, it was the opposite. It led to a drastic increase of terrorism, a grave migration crisis in the Mediterranean and more expensive energy.”

The political assessment of the Spanish government is that Europeans are tired of appeasing Trump, whether in tariff disputes or defence commitments such as imposing a 5% spending goal with a large chunk dedicated to buying US weapons.

As a result, a candidate who is seen as willing to defend European interests and confront Trump could gain a strong electoral advantage. The Spanish government has not been shy about its policy positions, at the risk of antagonising the real estate magnate since he returned to the White House last year.

Last summer, Madrid refused to adhere to the 5% target suggesting that it would lead to chaotic off-the-shelf purchases of weapons, rather than common European buying, and suggested that NATO performance should be measured on capabilities.

The message is simple: Spain is an ally, but it’s also sovereign.

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Echoes of Villepin and the ghost of the Azores

For his latest move, Sánchez took inspiration from two defining moments after the launch of the US operation against Iraq in 2003 under President George W. Bush.

The first was a powerful speech delivered in February that year by former French foreign minister Dominique de Villepin who warned before the UN Security Council—of which France is a permanent member—against what he described as a potentially disastrous invasion.

De Villepin passionately pushed back against the US, disputed military actions and suggested intelligence report did not support American claims of a linkage between al-Qaeda, the Saddam Hussein regime and the existence of weapons of mass destruction.

Time proved Villepin right.

The Iraqi war is particularly relevant for the Spanish public opinion because, at the time, former Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar alongside former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair threw their support behind the Bush administration in its operation.

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In the Spanish press, the three leaders were dubbed the “Trío de las Azores,” a name inspired by a photograph taken of them on the Portuguese Atlantic archipelago of the Azores. Spain’s backing of the war sparked a massive protest movement across the country under the slogan “No a la guerra.”

More than 20 years later, Sánchez is reviving it, hoping it will energize his base, increase his international profile and — just as it did for Dominique de Villepin —vindicate his choices.

The Spanish prime minister is facing a difficult re-election campaign, with the next vote scheduled to take place in 2027. Still, Madrid is rife with speculation that he could call for a snap election if he sees a favourable opening and succeeds in rallying his progressive coalition.

But to move up a planned election date, he needs a compelling justification or risk being seen as too cynical to be palatable. Sánchez is perceived by a large part of the Spanish electorate as lacking a moral compass.

The war in the Middle East — and his hard line toward Donald Trump, which the opposition claims risks isolating Spain within the EU, NATO and the broader Western alliance — could provide such a rationale.

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The Spanish Prime Minister played that card back in 2023: when he framed a snap election as a referendum on his policies. Although the conservatives secured the largest share of the vote, Spain’s parliamentary system enabled Sánchez to assemble a majority coalition and remain in power.

A clash a long time in the making

In many ways, the rocky relation between the US under Trump and the Spanish government is hardly surprising. The two have clashed on everything from migration policies to societal values, each embracing their role as the other’s political opposite.

For Sánchez — a deeply polarizing figure who denies any wrongdoing in multiple court cases involving members of his family — the international stage offers a political shelter, as is often the case for embattled leaders at home. And he is intentional in cultivating a global profile.

An international conference of left-leaning voices expected to take place in Barcelona next April debating topics from democracy, tech oligarchs and reactionary movements, according to a person familiar with the organizer. The goal is to present a forum that can rival the CPAC, the largest gathering for conversatives, only this time for progressives.

In the meantime, the Spaniards have grown increasingly convinced that more European voices will join them as the war drags on. “Many are afraid of confrontation with the US, but our words reflect what a large camp thinks in Europe,” said a Spanish diplomat.

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On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron called Sánchez to express his solidarity in the face of Trump’s trade threats. European Council President Antonio Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did the same.

Still, his power moves have not gone unnoticed by critics, who argue that Madrid is treading a very fine line by antagonizing the United States for political gain, even as the EU seeks to secure a fair peace deal for Ukraine. With an American security guarantee necessary to ensure Kyiv is not attacked again by Russia, and US input in NATO remaining crucial for European security, such tensions carry significant risks.

“He does this for national politics, and he knows the EU will back him up because solidarity always prevails. But is this really necessary?” asked a diplomat from another EU country.

For Madrid, it’s not just necessary, it’s imperative.

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‘Not our Europe’: Macron and Sánchez slam return hubs for migrants

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‘Not our Europe’: Macron and Sánchez slam return hubs for migrants

French President Emmanuel Macron and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have issued a blistering rebuke against deportation camps outside the European Union, setting their countries on a collision course with a growing political majority.

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During a summit on Friday, 19 leaders across the bloc signed a joint declaration calling to make “full use” of a new European law that enables the construction of so-called return hubs to host migrants whose asylum applications have been denied.

The coalition, led by Denmark and Italy, two fierce advocates of outsourcing, wants to “move forward with solutions based in third countries as soon as possible”.

But for Macron and Sánchez, this path runs counter to European values and risks squandering financial resources and undercutting relations with neighbouring Africa.

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“I am not sure that this is our Europe. I don’t know if these are the fundamental principles on which our Europe was built,” Macron said at the end of the summit on Friday.

“And I don’t think it’s effective, either. The proof is that I have not seen anyone make it work so far,” he went on, underscoring his strong dissatisfaction. (Italy has set up migration centres on Albanian soil but has fallen short of expected targets.)

“I have a lot of respect for anyone who wants to do it. I disagree, both pragmatically and in principle. I think it has nothing to do with European politics.”

Macron said his country was in favour of tougher laws to curb irregular arrivals but drew a red line on the physical transfer of migrants to faraway countries where they have never set foot. That possibility, long considered taboo, is allowed under a revamped Return Regulation described as the “strictest-ever” migration law.

“There is a question, in fact, around these famous return hubs in third countries. France does not support this policy. We are in favour of a more effective return policy. But first of all, I have never seen a return hub in a third country operate,” Macron went on.

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“I invite you to consider what it is (in practice): this means that people who do not want to return to their country of origin or who cannot get back to their country of origin will be pushed into a third country, which will accept them in return for money.”

Macron mocked the jargonistic term “innovative solutions” that proponents of migration offshoring often use in their public communication and challenged the notion that host countries would respect human rights in exchange for financial incentives.

“I am a big supporter of innovation in my country,” he said, saying he would later attend the Vivatech festival in Paris. “But I am always very careful when talking about innovation in values and human rights. Allow me to have that reservation.”

Meanwhile, Sánchez, a vocal critic of the measures, said the deportation camps would be an “absolutely inefficient” and “worthless” response to irregular migration.

“It’s a mirage, if you will, that it will simply waste economic resources, and Europe doesn’t have many,” the Spaniard said after the summit in Brussels.

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“Secondly, it sends a wrong message to those countries of origin and transit with which we should be collaborating, cooperating and showing empathy towards.”

Macron echoed Sánchez’s reputational concerns and insisted he would not allow EU funds to be used in any capacity to build the deportation camps, which are “neither effective nor do they correspond with our principles”.

“Sometimes, we hear one or the other (country) advocate policies with the African continent, so good luck defending our credibility on these continents by explaining that we will use the money for investments to build return hubs on their continents,” he said.

“What world do we live in?”

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US tells ASML it is concerned China may have top chip tool, Bloomberg News reports

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US tells ASML it is concerned China may have top chip tool, Bloomberg News reports
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick ​outlined concerns to ‌Dutch chip-equipment firm ASML’s senior leaders ​that one ​of its top-of-the-line machines ⁠may have ​made its way into ​China, in violation of U.S.-led export restrictions, ​Bloomberg News ​reported on Thursday.
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Iran hardliner behind US deal warns Tehran won’t honor agreement if Trump fails to deliver

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Iran hardliner behind US deal warns Tehran won’t honor agreement if Trump fails to deliver

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Iran’s hardline parliament speaker and key negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that Tehran would not honor its commitments under a newly signed memorandum with the U.S. if Washington fails to uphold its side of the deal, according to the media arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

“If the United States does not honor its commitments, there is no way Iran will honor its own commitments,” Ghalibaf said.

Ghalibaf’s warning was echoed Thursday by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, who threatened the U.S. in remarks translated by MEMRI TV, saying, “Americans should know their place and avoid confronting the Muslims.” 

Qaani added that “Trump is trembling” and warned that the U.S. “should fear not only Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, but many other locations as well.”

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MEET IRAN’S HARDLINE SPEAKER WHO THREATENED TO BURN US FORCES — REPORTEDLY TEHRAN’S POINT MAN FOR TALKS

The warnings came after President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian Wednesday digitally signed a copy of the memorandum aimed at ending the war and resuming the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s hardline parliament speaker and key negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that Tehran would not honor its commitments under a newly signed memorandum with the U.S. if Washington fails to uphold its side of the deal.  (Majid Asgaripour/WANA)

The memorandum gives Iran major economic relief while leaving some of the most difficult nuclear questions for a final agreement to be negotiated throughout the next 60 days. Under the 14-point plan read by a senior U.S. official, Washington agreed to begin lifting its naval blockade, work with regional partners on a $300 billion reconstruction and development plan for Iran and terminate U.S., U.N. and other sanctions on an agreed schedule as part of a final deal. 

The memorandum also says all licenses, waivers and permissions needed for related financial transactions would be granted by the United States.

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In return, Iran reaffirmed that it “shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons,” and the sides agreed to resolve the fate of Iran’s stockpiled enriched material under a future mechanism, with the minimum method being on-site down-blending under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision. 

The agreement defers many of the hardest questions — including how to wind down Iran’s nuclear program — until the 60-day negotiation period for a final deal.

But the Iranian figure at the center of the deal is not a diplomat known for moderation. 

Ghalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and longtime regime insider, has threatened American forces, vowed Trump would “pay the price” and built his career through loyalty to Iran’s security establishment.

The new warning underscored what experts say is the central risk of the agreement. Washington may be entering a deal with officials who can enforce Iran’s commitments but who have shown little sign of changing the regime’s long-term posture toward the U.S., Israel or the region. 

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Ghalibaf, 64, is a product of Iran’s security establishment. He rose through the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during the Iran-Iraq War, eventually becoming commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps air force. 

He later served as Iran’s national police chief, overseeing internal security forces responsible for suppressing protests, including the 1999 student uprising, alongside Qassem Soleimani.

After transitioning into politics, Ghalibaf attempted to run for president multiple times but failed. He instead built his career through loyalty to the system, serving as Tehran’s mayor for more than a decade before becoming speaker of parliament in 2020.

FAMILIES OF IRAN’S ELITE LIVE LAVISHLY ABROAD WHILE ORDINARY CITIZENS SUFFER AT HOME

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf looks on as parliament members wearing military uniforms chant in support of the IRGC in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 1, 2026. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/WANA/Handout via Reuters)

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“Ghalibaf doesn’t have an independent line. His strength is that he is a ‘yes man,’” Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies, previously told Fox News Digital. “If he is told to shake hands with special envoy Steve Witkoff, he will do it. If he is told to escalate, he will. It is not about moderation, it is about who gives the orders.”

“His name has also been linked to multiple corruption allegations, including misuse of oil revenues and sanctions evasion networks involving his family. His sons have reportedly been involved and are under sanctions,” Sabti said.

“There have also been public scandals involving family members traveling abroad and making luxury purchases, including widely circulated images of them arriving with numerous high-end Gucci suitcases.”

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the image of Ghalibaf at a signing ceremony with a senior U.S. official would be a propaganda victory for the regime.

“There was a time when the Islamic Republic would have been terrified to be seen signing such a thing,” Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. “Postwar, this is a sign of the regime’s opportunism, and no one identifies that opportunism better than someone like Ghalibaf, who comes from the IRGC, who is a corrupt politician and is a wheeler and dealer.”

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But Taleblu warned that Washington should not confuse Ghalibaf’s opportunism with moderation. 

“The mirage is the myth of Iranian military moderation and the myth that, with time, this regime will integrate and put aside all the things that have kept it on the sidelines for so long,” he said. “Transforming Iran via a deal — that is a huge lift.”

Ghalibaf’s wartime statements reflect the hardline posture inside Iran’s leadership. In remarks aired on Iranian television Jan. 12 and translated by MEMRI, he warned that U.S. forces would face catastrophic consequences if they confronted Iran.

“Come, so you can see what catastrophe befalls American bases, ships and forces,” he said, adding that American troops would be “burned by the fire of Iran’s defenders.”

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION UNVEILS SWEEPING TERMS OF PROPOSED IRAN AGREEMENT

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A man lights a cigarette with fire from a burning picture of Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as Israelis rally in support of nationwide protests in Iran in Holon, Israel, on Jan. 14, 2026. (Ammar Awad/Reuters)

More recently, he warned that “the blood of American soldiers is the personal responsibility of Trump” and vowed Iran would “settle accounts with the Americans and Israelis,” adding that “Trump and Netanyahu crossed our red lines and will pay the price.”

John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America and a former national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, said Ghalibaf’s expected role reflects the reality of who holds power inside Iran. 

“If you’re going to sign an agreement with Iran, those are the forces in charge and calling the shots, presumably with the approval of the new supreme leader,” Hannah told Fox News Digital. “If the U.S. harbors hope that Iran will ever implement any of their obligations under the MOU, these are the people — odious as they are — capable of making it happen.”

But Hannah said the central question is whether Iran’s leadership sees compliance as useful or whether the agreement is simply a tactical pause.

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“The big question is whether they see it in their interest to do so, or are they only buying time, rebuilding their power and preparing for the next round of conflict,” he said.

Ben Taleblu was even more blunt, warning that even a seemingly favorable agreement would not change the nature of the regime.

“Even if you’ve got the perfect deal, with this kind of regime, with this kind of mentality, they will escalate,” he said. “I thought we would have learned by now what the regime did after the JCPOA. It built a vast missile arsenal. It literally built an empire of terror proxies that took Israel years of blood, effort and money to dismantle, backed by American support.

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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a press conference in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 27, 2024. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters)

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“If we engage in pay-to-play with these guys,” he added, “I’m sorry to sound the alarm bell like this — but something tells me this is bad either way.”

Responding to questions about the threats from Ghalibaf and IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, the White House defended Trump’s approach and warned Iran would face consequences if it failed to reach a final deal.

“President Trump has a great track record of good deals for the American people, and the President has been clear about the consequences if Iran fails to make a good, final deal,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales told Fox News Digital. 

“What the president has achieved on the battlefield and at the negotiating table is nothing short of remarkable and will strengthen American security for many years to come.”

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