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Sánchez defies Trump in political gamble as Madrid say no to war

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Sánchez defies Trump in political gamble as Madrid say no to war

Pedro Sánchez knows exactly what he is doing.

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By defying Donald Trump and doubling down on his bras de fer with the US president, the Spanish prime minister consolidates a two-fold strategy.

On the one hand, he seeks to mobilize his progressive electorate domestically, resuscitating a “no to war” movement which resonated strongly with Spanish voters during the US-led war against Iraq in 2003. Sánchez is also hoping for a moment akin to that of Dominique de Villepin: a Cassandra warning against an unjustified war that will bring disastrous consequences.

Only now it’s Iran.

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In doing so, he aims to consolidate his image as one of the last strongly progressive, socialist leaders in a global political environment shifting rightward under the influence of MAGA-aligned politics, at a time when left-wing parties across Europe are losing electoral ground and struggling to project a unified international voice.

His strategy, while bold, is also risky as it could leave Spain diplomatically isolated from the European consensus and trigger a trade war that could impact Spanish companies in the US. It also risks inflaming tensions within NATO where Madrid has pursued a somewhat independent strategic line. Intelligence-sharing is also crucial and may be compromised with national security ramifications if the US decides to weaponise it.

Still, far from looking for a ramp-off, Sánchez is double down on his bet.

“In 2003, a few irresponsible leaders dragged us into an illegal war into an illegal war in the Middle East that brought nothing but insecurity and pain,” Sánchez said Wednesday.

“No to violations of international law. No to the illusion that we can solve the world’s problems with bombs. No to repeating the mistakes of the past. No to war.”

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A clash choreographed to perfection

His campaign against the US-Israeli intervention in Iran comes after Trump threatened to impose a trade embargo on Spain in response to Madrid’s refusal to allow Washington to use its military bases to strike Iran from its territory.

Spain insisted any operation handled from the two bases it hosts in Rota and Moron should be limited to humanitarian assistance rather than offensive strikes, and that all activities must comply with international law. The move led to the withdrawal of U.S. aircraft from the bases according to radar information.

From the Oval office on Tuesday, Trump referred to Spain as an “unfriendly” and “terrible” ally. As he threatened a trade embargo in response, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz—who was visiting the White House—remained silent, Spain judged that the time had come to confront the world’s most powerful man and began preparing its response.

Sources close to the Spanish government late afternoon began to brief that, if Washington were to unilaterally terminate trade ties, it would have to do “in compliance with international law, EU-USA terms of trade and respecting private companies.”

By 8 p.m. Madrid time, the Prime Minister’s office informed journalists that Sánchez would deliver a “declaración institucional”—a statement typically reserved for solemn occasions—at 9 a.m. the following day. The announcement was made just ahead of the evening news broadcasts.

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Little was left to chance, reflecting Sánchez’s carefully managed communications strategy, which is often viewed as both highly effective but also opportunistic.

According to people familiar with the Moncloa palace, as the 17th-century inspired office of the prime minister is known, backtracking was never an option.

Instead, Madrid was clear it needed to respond forcefully, emphasizing Spain’s sovereignty, the consistency of its foreign policy from Ukraine to Gaza and Sánchez’s position as the only European leader standing up to Trump.

The Spanish Prime Minister delivered just that.

‘Our position is best resumed in four words: no to the war,” he said, adding that “23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into war in the Middle East.”

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“We were told it would destroy weapons of mass destruction, export democracy and guarantee global security. In hindsight, it was the opposite. It led to a drastic increase of terrorism, a grave migration crisis in the Mediterranean and more expensive energy.”

The political assessment of the Spanish government is that Europeans are tired of appeasing Trump, whether in tariff disputes or defence commitments such as imposing a 5% spending goal with a large chunk dedicated to buying US weapons.

As a result, a candidate who is seen as willing to defend European interests and confront Trump could gain a strong electoral advantage. The Spanish government has not been shy about its policy positions, at the risk of antagonising the real estate magnate since he returned to the White House last year.

Last summer, Madrid refused to adhere to the 5% target suggesting that it would lead to chaotic off-the-shelf purchases of weapons, rather than common European buying, and suggested that NATO performance should be measured on capabilities.

The message is simple: Spain is an ally, but it’s also sovereign.

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Echoes of Villepin and the ghost of the Azores

For his latest move, Sánchez took inspiration from two defining moments after the launch of the US operation against Iraq in 2003 under President George W. Bush.

The first was a powerful speech delivered in February that year by former French foreign minister Dominique de Villepin who warned before the UN Security Council—of which France is a permanent member—against what he described as a potentially disastrous invasion.

De Villepin passionately pushed back against the US, disputed military actions and suggested intelligence report did not support American claims of a linkage between al-Qaeda, the Saddam Hussein regime and the existence of weapons of mass destruction.

Time proved Villepin right.

The Iraqi war is particularly relevant for the Spanish public opinion because, at the time, former Spanish Prime Minister José María Aznar alongside former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair threw their support behind the Bush administration in its operation.

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In the Spanish press, the three leaders were dubbed the “Trío de las Azores,” a name inspired by a photograph taken of them on the Portuguese Atlantic archipelago of the Azores. Spain’s backing of the war sparked a massive protest movement across the country under the slogan “No a la guerra.”

More than 20 years later, Sánchez is reviving it, hoping it will energize his base, increase his international profile and — just as it did for Dominique de Villepin —vindicate his choices.

The Spanish prime minister is facing a difficult re-election campaign, with the next vote scheduled to take place in 2027. Still, Madrid is rife with speculation that he could call for a snap election if he sees a favourable opening and succeeds in rallying his progressive coalition.

But to move up a planned election date, he needs a compelling justification or risk being seen as too cynical to be palatable. Sánchez is perceived by a large part of the Spanish electorate as lacking a moral compass.

The war in the Middle East — and his hard line toward Donald Trump, which the opposition claims risks isolating Spain within the EU, NATO and the broader Western alliance — could provide such a rationale.

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The Spanish Prime Minister played that card back in 2023: when he framed a snap election as a referendum on his policies. Although the conservatives secured the largest share of the vote, Spain’s parliamentary system enabled Sánchez to assemble a majority coalition and remain in power.

A clash a long time in the making

In many ways, the rocky relation between the US under Trump and the Spanish government is hardly surprising. The two have clashed on everything from migration policies to societal values, each embracing their role as the other’s political opposite.

For Sánchez — a deeply polarizing figure who denies any wrongdoing in multiple court cases involving members of his family — the international stage offers a political shelter, as is often the case for embattled leaders at home. And he is intentional in cultivating a global profile.

An international conference of left-leaning voices expected to take place in Barcelona next April debating topics from democracy, tech oligarchs and reactionary movements, according to a person familiar with the organizer. The goal is to present a forum that can rival the CPAC, the largest gathering for conversatives, only this time for progressives.

In the meantime, the Spaniards have grown increasingly convinced that more European voices will join them as the war drags on. “Many are afraid of confrontation with the US, but our words reflect what a large camp thinks in Europe,” said a Spanish diplomat.

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On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron called Sánchez to express his solidarity in the face of Trump’s trade threats. European Council President Antonio Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did the same.

Still, his power moves have not gone unnoticed by critics, who argue that Madrid is treading a very fine line by antagonizing the United States for political gain, even as the EU seeks to secure a fair peace deal for Ukraine. With an American security guarantee necessary to ensure Kyiv is not attacked again by Russia, and US input in NATO remaining crucial for European security, such tensions carry significant risks.

“He does this for national politics, and he knows the EU will back him up because solidarity always prevails. But is this really necessary?” asked a diplomat from another EU country.

For Madrid, it’s not just necessary, it’s imperative.

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Cyberattack hits Canvas system used by thousands of schools as finals loom

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Cyberattack hits Canvas system used by thousands of schools as finals loom

A system that thousands of schools and universities use was offline Thursday during a cyberattack, creating chaos as students tried to study for finals and underscoring education’s dependence on technology.

The hacking group named ShinyHunters claimed responsibility for the breach at Canvas, said Luke Connolly, a threat analyst at the cybersecurity firm Emisoft. Instructure, the company behind Canvas, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment or questions about whether the system was taken down as a precaution or because the hackers knocked it offline.

Canvas is used to manage grades, course notes, assignments, lecture videos and more. The hacking group posted online that nearly 9,000 schools worldwide were affected, with billions of private messages and other records accessed, Connolly said.

Students quickly took to social media to ask if others were unable to access Canvas, with many panicking that they could no longer view course materials housed within the platform to study for their final exams.

Screen shots Connolly provided showed that the group began threatening Sunday to leak the trove of data, giving deadlines of Thursday and May 12. Connolly said the later date indicates that discussions regarding extortion payments may be ongoing.

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Rich in digitized data, the nation’s schools are prime targets for far-flung criminal hackers, who are assiduously locating and scooping up sensitive files that not long ago were committed to paper in locked cabinets. Past attacks have hit Minneapolis Public Schools and the Los Angeles Unified School District.

Instructure has not posted about the attack on its social media.

Connolly said the Canvas attack is strikingly similar to a breach at PowerSchool, which also offers learning management tools. In that case a Massachusetts college student was charged.

Connolly described ShinyHunters as a loose affiliation of teenagers and young adults based in the U.S. and the United Kingdom. The group also has been tied to a other attacks, including one aimed at Live Nation’s Ticketmaster subsidiary.

Universities and school districts quickly began notifying students and parents.

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“This is being reported as a national-level cyber-security incident,” the director of information technology at the University of Iowa’s College of Public Health wrote in announcing that the school’s online system was down. “Hopefully we will have a resolution soon.”

Virginia Tech acknowledged in a notice to students that the administration was aware of the effect on final exams and other end-of-semester activities. The University of New Mexico sent a similar message to the campus community, and the University of Florida urged students to stay alert for any phishing messages that appear to be from Canvas.

Teachers say they are having to find workarounds to help students study for exams and submit final assignments.

Damon Linker, a senior lecturer in the political science department at the University of Pennsylvania, said in a post on the social media platform X that his students had been relying on Canvas to access every reading from the semester and all of his lecture slides before their Monday final exams. The outage leaves students and faculty “dead in the water here in academia right now,” he said.

The student newspaper at Harvard reported that the system there was down as well. Students at Johns Hopkins University simply got an error message when trying to view their final grades on the platform Thursday. And public school districts also sought to reassure parents, with officials in Spokane, Washington, writing that they aren’t “aware of any sensitive data contained in this breach.”

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Some schools, such as the University of Texas at San Antonio, announced they were pushing back finals scheduled for Friday in response to the outage.

___

This story has been corrected to attribute a quote to the director of information technology at the University of Iowa’s College of Public Health, not the university’s broader information technology lead.

___

Associated Press journalist Hannah Schoenbaum in Salt Lake City contributed.

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Iranian dissidents seize on Trump remarks about armed resistance, fueling revival of Reagan doctrine

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Iranian dissidents seize on Trump remarks about armed resistance, fueling revival of Reagan doctrine

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After President Donald Trump suggested this week that Iranians “would fight back” if they had weapons, Iranian dissidents, military analysts and some Republican lawmakers are openly reviving a once-taboo question: should the West move beyond “maximum pressure” on Tehran and actively support armed resistance inside Iran?

“They have to have guns. And I think they’re getting some guns. As soon as they have guns, they’ll fight like, as good as anybody there is,” Trump said in an interview with “The Hugh Hewitt Show,” while discussing anti-regime unrest and the Iranian government’s crackdown on protesters.

The comments come as the Iranian regime emerges weakened from weeks of war, while frustration continues to simmer among many Iranians after years of failed protests and violent crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

LINDSEY GRAHAM URGES US, ISRAEL TO ARM IRANIAN CIVILIANS IN ‘SECOND AMENDMENT SOLUTION’ TO TOPPLE REGIME

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Protesters rally in Washington, D.C., on March 7, 2026, supporting regime change in Iran following U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

Supporters of a more aggressive approach argue sanctions, diplomacy and unarmed demonstrations have failed to produce meaningful change inside Iran and say the current moment may represent the best opportunity in decades to challenge the regime from within. Critics warn that openly discussing armed resistance could endanger protesters, deepen divisions inside the opposition and risk pushing Iran toward civil war.

The idea of armed resistance echoes aspects of the Reagan Doctrine, the Cold War-era strategy in which the U.S. backed anti-Soviet resistance movements around the world, from Afghanistan to Nicaragua.

“We need to give Iranians the tools now, and they’ll finish the job themselves,” Brett Velicovich, founder of Powerus and a former U.S. military and intelligence specialist focused on drone warfare, told Fox News Digital.

“It’s their time to do something. There has never been a better chance.”

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AS AIRSTRIKES RAIN DOWN ON THE IRANIAN REGIME, CAN A FRACTURED OPPOSITION UNITE TO LEAD IF IT FALLS?

Smoke and flames rise at an oil depot in Tehran after airstrikes on March 7, 2026. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, leading to Iranian missile retaliation and increased concerns about global energy and transport disruption. (Sasan/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Velicovich described the strategy as “Reagan Doctrine 2.0,” updated for the age of drones and decentralized warfare.

“Cheap FPV drones, loitering munitions, and small arms let motivated fighters turn Iran’s streets and mountains into a nightmare for the IRGC,” he said. “This isn’t fantasy; it’s asymmetric warfare that works.”

He argued that modern drone technology has fundamentally changed the balance between governments and insurgent or resistance movements.

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“Drones democratize power,” Velicovich said. “The regime’s monopoly on violence ends the day the people get eyes in the sky and precision strike capability.”

IRANIAN KURDISH FIGHTERS SAY THEY’RE READY TO STRIKE TEHRAN, WAITING FOR OPENING

Iran is building a decentralized FPV drone capability in basement factories using Chinese parts, defense expert Cameron Chell warns, citing a potential threat to the U.S. homeland. (Getty)

Still, even some critics of the Iranian regime caution that the comparison to Cold War proxy movements has limits.

Unlike Soviet-controlled Eastern Europe or Afghanistan in the 1980s, Iran is a highly nationalistic country with a fragmented opposition and deep fears of foreign intervention following decades of conflict across the Middle East.

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Still, calls for more direct support for anti-regime forces are increasingly moving into mainstream Republican foreign policy discussions.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., recently called for what he described as a “Second Amendment solution” inside Iran.

“If I were President Trump and I were Israel, I would load the Iranian people up with weapons so they could go to the streets armed and turn the tide of battle inside Iran,” Graham said on “Hannity.”

The question of who would actually receive support, however, remains deeply controversial.

Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi speaks at the Women’s Forum hosted by Vital Voices in Washington, D.C., on March 29, 2023. (Paul Morigi/Getty Images)

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Some opposition supporters continue to rally around exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, whose name has surfaced during anti-regime protests inside Iran and who has urged the international community not to give Tehran “another lifeline.”

Another group that has acted in various operations against the regime is the controversial People’s Mujahedin Organization of Iran, or MEK, which has long positioned itself as an organized opposition force against the Islamic Republic. The MEK recently posted videos showing its members targeting “regime centers and symbols of crime and repression,” in response to the execution of two of its members last month — Hamed Validi and Mohammad (Nima) Massoum-Shahi.

Others point to existing armed or semi-organized anti-regime groups, including Kurdish organizations, Baloch insurgent networks and underground resistance cells operating inside Iran.

Sardar Pashaei, director of the Hiwa Foundation and a former Iranian wrestling champion now living in the United States, warned that publicly discussing arming protesters could itself put lives at risk.

“I think we must be extremely cautious on this issue, especially publicly, because the regime can use it as a pretext to arrest protesters, fabricate cases and even justify executions,” Pashaei told Fox News Digital.

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IRAN’S INTERNET BLACKOUT HIDING STRIKE DAMAGE AND SUPPRESSING DISSENT, ISRAELI OFFICIALS SAY

A woman walks across a nearly empty public square in Tehran, Iran, with a large billboard displaying the portrait of the late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the background on March 3, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)

“For decades, the Islamic Republic has used accusations of ties to the United States, Israel, or espionage to target dissidents and political prisoners.”

Pashaei argued the better approach is supporting Iranian civil society, restoring internet access and backing democratic opposition groups that reflect Iran’s ethnic and political diversity.

The issue became even more sensitive after Trump said during a phone interview with “Fox News Sunday” in early April that his administration had previously attempted to send firearms to Iranian protesters through Kurdish channels, though the effort failed.

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IRAN REGIME FACES ‘BEGINNING OF THE END’ AS EXILED CROWN PRINCE SEES ‘GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY’

Men and women hold Kurdish scarves and roses during Nowruz festivities in Saqqez, Iran, on March 15, 2024. (Barbod Khorshidi/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

“We sent guns to the protesters, a lot of them. We sent them through the Kurds. And I think the Kurds took the guns,” Trump said.

Several Kurdish groups have denied receiving such shipments.

Pashaei warned that claims of foreign weapons support could deepen divisions inside the opposition while also exposing Kurdish groups to further retaliation from Tehran.

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“During the so-called ceasefire period, Kurdish opposition groups were targeted more than 30 times with drone and missile attacks,” he said, adding that four young Kurdish Peshmerga fighters were killed, including 19-year-old Ghazal Mowlan.

Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency’s value in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8, 2026. (Stringer/West Asia News Agency via Reuters)

One source familiar with discussions surrounding Iranian opposition strategy said supporters of a more aggressive approach increasingly believe the current moment presents a rare opportunity to identify, train and support local resistance networks capable of protecting protesters and challenging the regime from within.

The source argued that while Iran spent decades building and cultivating proxy networks across the Middle East, Western governments largely avoided investing in organized anti-regime infrastructure inside Iran itself.

Others warn that empowering armed factions could trigger ethnic fragmentation, civil war or a Syria-style conflict inside Iran.

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According to the source, supporters of a more aggressive approach increasingly believe the current moment presents a rare opportunity to identify, train and support local resistance networks capable of protecting protesters and challenging the regime from within.

Whether Washington is willing to move beyond pressure campaigns and sanctions toward something closer to a modernized Reagan Doctrine remains unclear.

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Members of security forces watch over the crowd during a funeral procession for IRGC Navy Chief Alireza Tangsiri and other senior naval commanders killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, on April 1, 2026. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

For now, Trump’s comments have pushed a once-theoretical conversation into the open, while some argue the current moment may represent the best opportunity in decades to challenge the regime.

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As US and Iran weigh peace deal, stranded seafarers wait in limbo

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As US and Iran weigh peace deal, stranded seafarers wait in limbo

Stranded at an Iranian port for nearly 10 weeks, Indian seafarer Anish has unintentionally become a firsthand witness to the Iran war.

Anish arrived in the Shatt al-Arab waterway on a cargo ship days before United States President Donald Trump launched “Operation Epic Fury” on February 28.

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He has been stuck on the vessel ever since.

“We’ve faced the whole situation here, the war, the missiles,” Anish, who was granted a pseudonym after agreeing to speak on condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera.

“Our minds are terribly distracted.”

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Some of his fellow Indian seafarers have been able to return home by crossing Iran’s 44km land border with Armenia, Anish said, but many others have remained because they are still waiting to get paid.

“Some are stuck because of their Indian agents; they are not getting their salaries,” Anish said, referring to the middlemen who recruit seafarers, manage payrolls and take care of other employee matters on behalf of shipping firms.

“Some are stuck because the Iranian agents say we will not give you the dollars to reach Armenia.”

Anish said he has been subsisting on a diet of potatoes, onions, tomatoes and flatbread, but has heard that food and water on other ships are running low.

Anish’s predicament is one faced by an estimated 20,000 seafarers stranded since Iran in effect shut the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the United States and Israel’s attacks on the country.

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Before the war, the strait functioned as one of the world’s most critical shipping routes, carrying about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies, and one-third of the seaborne fertiliser trade.

Despite the announcement of a tenuous ceasefire between Washington and Tehran on April 7, maritime traffic has remained at a standstill amid recurrent attacks in and around the waterway.

US Central Command said on Thursday that it had “intercepted” and “eliminated” inbound Iranian threats after three US Navy guided-missile destroyers came under attack from missiles, drones and small boats while crossing the strait.

Iran’s military said it had retaliated against the US Navy vessels after US forces targeted an oil tanker in its territorial waters.

Tehran also accused Washington of violating their ceasefire by carrying out air strikes on civilian areas, including Qeshm Island.

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Throughout the war, Iran has offered ships safe passage through its territorial waters for a fee, while continuing to fire intermittently on commercial vessels.

At the same time, the US has blockaded Iranian ports since April 13 in a bid to disrupt Tehran’s oil exports and access to foreign currency.

UK-based maritime intelligence company Lloyd’s List said on Monday that at least four commercial ships were fired upon since the previous day, while a container ship operated by French company CMA CGM on Wednesday reported that it had come under attack while crossing the waterway.

The United Nations International Maritime Organization estimates that at least 10 seafarers have been killed since the start of the war.

Iran’s merchant marine union reported that at least 44 Iranian seafarers, including dockworkers and fishermen, had been killed as of April 1.

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Trump said on Wednesday that US officials held “very good talks” with Tehran and that a peace deal was “very possible”, but it remains unclear how close the sides are to any agreement.

The MSC Francesca ship is seen during its seizure by the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, on April 24, 2026 [Meysam Mirzadeh/Tasnim/West Asia News Agency via Reuters]

While some ships have managed to exit the Strait of Hormuz during brief lulls in hostilities, each day brings new uncertainty for the civilian crews manning the Gulf’s massive fleet of oil, gas and container ships, according to labour groups.

Last month, Iranian forces detained two foreign-flagged cargo ships and their crew, while the US Navy captured three Iran-linked commercial vessels in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

The prospect of being detained on top of being stranded at sea has created an “enhanced state of fear,” said Stephen Cotton, general secretary of the International Transport Workers’ Federation, which represents about 700 unions across 150 countries.

“Since the beginning of the year, we’ve got military forces boarding ships like it’s the 17th century, and that’s terrifying,” Cotton told Al Jazeera.

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“It’s kind of crazy, because these are seafarers. These are just workers.”

The IMO has called the situation facing mariners an “unprecedented” humanitarian crisis, though conditions facing workers can vary considerably depending on the shipowner and whether they are unionised.

While seafarers on board vessels operated by major international shipping lines have been receiving hazard pay and other assistance, some seafarers working with smaller operations are struggling to get paid or have their basic needs met, according to Cotton and other seafarers’ advocates.

“The reality is you’ve got two kinds of shipping industries. One is the intercontinental trade – the big gas, the big oil, and the big containers. Then you’ve got the local trade supplying oil, food, water and moving it around the Gulf,” Cotton said, adding that smaller vessels often operate without unions or the “rigorous enforcement of international regulations”.

Saman Rezaei, general secretary of the ITF-affiliated Iranian Merchant Mariners Syndicate, said that many foreign seafarers in Iran work for “irregular agencies” that do not meet international standards.

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Crew rotation has become a major pressure point for ships.

Under the 2006 Maritime Labour Convention – an international treaty ratified by 111 countries, including China, India, Japan, Australia, and the United Kingdom – the maximum time a seafarer can be required to serve on board is 12 months.

While seafarers have a legal right to leave their vessel beyond this period, unstable conditions have made repatriation a complicated and expensive prospect.

In some cases, especially on board large cargo ships still at sea, departing crew must first be replaced by incoming employees for safety reasons.

“With the ships unable to move and flights disrupted, many have had no choice but to remain on the ships even after their planned rotation,” John Bradford, a former US Navy officer and executive director of the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies in Japan, told Al Jazeera.

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“This keeps them from their families and creates all sorts of social ripple effects even as they continue in a situation that is increasingly stressful.”

‘I told my crew how to run’

Steven Jones, the founder of the “Seafarer Happiness Index,” said seafarers’ self-reported wellbeing score has fallen about 5 percent during the war.

Seafarers have described seeing Iranian drones and missiles flying at low altitude, Jones said.

“One told us: ‘What scares me the most is the thought of an intercepted drone or missile falling on us,’” Jones, who is affiliated with the UK-based Mission to Seafarers charity, told Al Jazeera.

Other seafarers have reported dwindling food supplies and preparing escape plans, Jones said.

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“Several senior officers say they have had to prepare evacuation plans for their teams: ‘I told my crew how to run, where to jump from, and what to carry if something happens,’” Jones said, quoting one seafarer.

Earlier this week, Trump announced that the US would begin guiding stranded ships out of the strait from Monday, before suspending the operation less than 48 hours later to pursue peace talks despite ongoing attacks in the waterway.

A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska as the U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided missile destroyer USS Spruance conducts its interception in a location given as the north Arabian Sea, in this screen capture from a video released April 19, 2026. CENTCOM/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. THIS IMAGE WAS PROCESSED BY REUTERS TO ENHANCE QUALITY, AN UNPROCESSED VERSION HAS BEEN PROVIDED SEPARATELY. VERIFICATION -Identity of the ship confirmed as Touska by shape which matched file imagery of the vessel. -Exact date not verified but no older version found posted online before April 19. -Vessel tracking data showed the most recent location of Touska near the Gulf of Oman on April 19.
A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska in the north Arabian Sea on April 19, 2026 [Centcom/Handout via Reuters]

Even if the strait were to reopen tomorrow, trade flows would take some time to return to normal due to damaged regional infrastructure, maxed-out storage facilities across the Gulf and a backlog of exports, according to shipping and logistics experts.

For the stranded seafarers, there is also the question of finding a safe route out of the strait, where Iran has reportedly laid sea mines.

US officials told The New York Times last month that Tehran had laid the mines haphazardly and was unable to locate all of them.

“There has been a lot of speculation about more precise numbers, but the fact is that we don’t know; uncertainty is central to mine warfare, and creating uncertainty about risk is part of the point of conducting it,” Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at the US-based Rand Corporation who has studied naval mine warfare, told Al Jazeera.

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Savitz said that it would be possible to establish an exit corridor in a few days, but clearing the strait of mines could take weeks or even months.

“Iran has stated that it has laid mines in and around the Strait of Hormuz, but it’s possible that they have laid them in other areas,” Savitz said.

The IMO announced in late April that it was working on an evacuation plan that prioritises ships based on humanitarian need, but that “all parties” involved in the conflict would need to refrain from attacks for such an operation to proceed.

“It’s a very dangerous moment,” the ITF’s Cotton said.

“We’re all saying the same – don’t transit unless you know it’s safe – but I don’t think anyone really knows what’s safe any more.”

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The longer the war drags on, the higher the risk that ship operators will abandon their vessels without settling all outstanding pay, according to seafarers’ advocates.

“This is a longstanding problem in the region, and as cargo disputes arise or the mechanical condition of vessels deteriorate, then the temptation for ‘bad owners’ is to walk away,” Jones said.

Anish, the Indian seafarer, said he has not been paid by his Dubai-based agent for nine months.

He is supposed to receive a payment in US dollars later this month, but he is worried that his company may withhold the sum.

“My contract finish date is the 20th of May,” Anish said.

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“Maybe the company will provide my salary after that,” he said. “I don’t know ”

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