Utah
Colorado vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model
A pair of Big 12 teams that have diverged from their preseason expectations meet up as No. 17 Colorado plays host to Utah on Saturday. Let’s check in with the new prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Colorado was picked to finish No. 11 in the Big 12 standings back during the preseason, but has moved into second-place in the conference with a 5-1 league record and controlling its destiny in the championship picture, and thus the College Football Playoff race.
Utah was the preseason Big 12 title favorite, but slid to 1-5 in conference play and ranking 108th among 134 FBS teams in scoring production, with 22 points per game.
What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Buffaloes and Utes square off in this Big 12 matchup?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Colorado and Utah compare in this Week 12 college football game.
The models are siding with the Buffaloes over the Utes, but by a very slim margin in this game.
SP+ predicts Colorado will defeat Utah by a projected score of 26 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 3.4 points in the process.
The model gives the Buffaloes a 58 percent chance of outright victory over the Utes.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.
Colorado is an 11.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.
FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).
And it set the moneyline odds for Colorado at -450 and for Utah at +340 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
If you do, you’ll be in the company of a majority of bettors, who expect the Buffaloes will dominate the Utes by double digits, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Colorado is getting 58 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big point spread.
The other 42 percent of wagers project Utah will either take out the Buffs in an upset, or keep the final margin under a dozen points in a loss.
Colorado is top 25 nationally by averaging out 10.5 points better than its opponents this season when adding up the points in the wins and losses.
Utah is 1 of 3 teams in FBS that comes in with a perfect 0.0 point margin in its games in 2024.
Those margins have diverged over the last three games of the season.
Colorado has been 17.3 points better than the competition in that span, while Utah has been 3.3 points worse than opponents over that time.
Things even out a little more depending on the venue.
Utah has been 2.3 points better than opponents when playing on the road, while Colorado has been 5 points better on average than the other team when at home.
Most other analytical models also favor the Buffaloes over the Utes in this Big 12 clash.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Colorado has emerged as the favorite at home, coming out ahead in 75 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.
That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the remaining 25 percent of sims.
How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?
Colorado is projected to be 9.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
More … Colorado vs. Utah prediction: What the analytics say
Colorado is second among Big 12 teams with a 24.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model projects the Buffaloes will win 9.4 games this season.
Utah hasn’t factored in the playoff conversation for quite a while, but there’s still a chance it can make a bowl game this postseason.
The index gives the Utes a win total projection of 5 games and a 24.9 percent chance to become bowl eligible.
When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 10 a.m. Mountain
TV: Fox network
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The Utah Jazz won their final summer league game against the Portland Trail Blazers 83-79. It was a fun game that came down to the wire, with a few Jazz players showing promise that could help the team.
The player who surprisingly didn’t help as much as you’d hope was Blake Hinson, who shot just 1/9 from three. Hinson was a sharpshooter for the Jazz last season, and it’s too bad that he couldn’t show that shooting stroke in the summer league. It’s likely not a big deal, but it would have been nice to see that shooting continue in the summer league. It does make you wonder why all the players who played for Utah last season, or will be getting regular minutes next year, didn’t shoot well in Las Vegas. Is that a trend? Or is it just a coincidence? It makes you wonder if the Jazz have been running hard practices, or if the players are tired from enjoying their time in Las Vegas? There’s no way to really know, but it’s interesting.
Utah’s strongest performer, in terms of plus-minus, was Bez Mbeng. He was a team-leading +14 and, even though he didn’t shoot the ball well either, his defense and intensity really shows on the floor. In this one, Mbeng had 4 steals and handled the ball for a lot of the game. He was also one of the top players in minutes with 20 in this one. I personally really like Mbeng and I’m rooting for him to make the team. I do think he can be a defensive-focused do-it-all player who could really contribute if he keeps improving.
Justin Harmon scored the ball well, leading the team in scoring with a team-leading 21 points. He had 6 free throws in this one and was a positive contributor overall. Harmon could be a nice addition to the training camp roster and, if he can show out, maybe he can earn himself a roster spot. He’s worth watching going forward at the very least.
And with that, the summer league is now over, and we now enter a long summer that will lead into one of the most exciting eras of Jazz basketball I can remember. It will be led by the best prospect in Jazz history to actually suit up for the Utah Jazz, and I can’t wait to see him develop into a superstar wearing the purple and blue.
Jon Anderson will be charged with moving the Orem school forward following the death of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk on campus last year.
(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) Incoming UVU President Jon Anderson poses for a photo with his family after an event announcing his selection at Utah Valley University in Orem on Friday, July 17, 2026.
BEAVER COUNTY, Utah — A massive community effort is underway as volunteers and Beaver County crews distribute thousands of sandbags to protect homes from the potential path of floodwaters.
After the Cottonwood Fires, residents have been waiting for weeks for relief to come in the form of rain, though officials now warn it may come all at once with an increased risk of flooding and debris flow.
Emergency Service Director Les Whitney believes that the fire has left plenty of debris to bring trouble for residents.
“We got a lot of water. We’re bringing debris with it, so tree branches, tree limbs, logs, lots of different size firewood, and that’s all in the creeks. We’re worried about that plugging up our bridges and stuff, so we have heavy equipment and excavators located in strategic places so that we can keep those bridges open,” said Whitney.
An estimated 140 homes and condominiums were spared from the flames, but remain in the paths of floodwaters.
Residents can also pick up sandbags at the Beaver County Sheriff’s Office or at the Beaver County Rodeo Fairgrounds.
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