It’s a family affair for the Big Ten with a spot in the national championship game on the line as No. 1 seed Indiana squares off against fifth-seed Oregon in the Peach Bowl semifinal.

Indiana has smashed up just about everything in sight, marching out to a 14-0 record with its first outright Big Ten title since 1945 by edging out reigning champ Ohio State and then pounding the bewildered SEC runner-up Alabama in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.

If they go all the way, the Hoosiers would become the first 16-0 team in college football since Yale did it back in 1894. Not bad for a program that has the most losses all-time.

Oregon is a 13-1 team with that one loss coming courtesy of these Hoosiers back during the regular season, but is coming off a dominant 23-0 victory over Big 12 champion Texas Tech in the quarterfinal round.

Indiana vs. Oregon: Keys to the game

1. Indiana’s Defensive Discipline vs. Dante Moore

Indiana’s biggest edge arguably remains a very disciplined defense that already solved Oregon’s scheme once, holding Dante Moore to 186 passing yards with two interceptions and six sacks in the October win at Eugene. 

The Hoosiers compress space, tackle cleanly, and rarely bust coverages, forcing Moore to sustain long drives instead of living on explosive downfield gainers. 

Key to this rematch is turning that discipline into disruption again: winning on early downs, disguising pressures, and closing throwing lanes so Oregon’s timing‑based pass game never finds a rhythm. 

If Indiana can keep Moore uncomfortable without giving up cheap shots in the deep field, it tilts the game back toward another grind that favors the unbeaten No. 1 seed.​

2. Oregon’s Early‑Down Efficiency and Protection

Oregon’s path back into the national title picture depends on staying ahead of the chains and protecting Moore far better than in the first meeting. 

This is not a max‑protect offense; the Ducks prefer to get the ball out quickly on first and second down to avoid Indiana dictating pressure looks on third and long. 

With top back Noah Whittington healthy and Jordon Davison sidelined, Oregon must manufacture run efficiency with motion, RPOs, and constraint plays rather than stubborn downhill calls into Indiana’s stout front. 

If that early‑down formula works, Moore’s accuracy, Oregon’s speed at receiver, and a more confident offensive line could finally stress a Hoosier defense that has thrived when opponents become predictable.​

3. Mendoza, Complementary Run Game, and Game Control

Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza has turned Indiana into a complete, ball‑control machine, pairing 36 touchdown passes with just six interceptions while adding some key rushing scores. 

The Hoosiers average over 220 rushing yards per game, using a deep backfield and a physical line to stay on schedule and keep their defense fresh. 

Against an Oregon defense coming off a 23–0 shutout of Texas Tech, Indiana’s key is balance: steady run success, efficient intermediate throws, and red‑zone poise that converts long, methodical drives into sevens instead of threes. 

If Mendoza controls tempo again, limits negative plays, and avoids the rare turnover, Indiana’s complementary profile again looks built to survive a tight matchup.

Indiana vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins?

Line: Indiana -3.5, 48.5, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

If a team of destiny exists, it might be Indiana. Give them credit: they created that destiny themselves, playing a punishing brand of defense and riding an efficient offense behind a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback.

Dante Moore had the worst game of his season against the Hoosiers’ defense, and his late interception, one of two on the day, helped seal the deal in what remains Oregon’s only loss this year.

Jordon Davison was the Ducks’ leading rusher in that first meeting, and his absence in the rematch makes it difficult to see this going another way, in particular after watching the Oregon offense fail to capitalize as much as it could have in the Orange Bowl.

Having their rushing output compromised to that degree will only put more pressure on Moore to win the game, and Indiana’s secondary coverage unit is a little too good to let that happen. The Hoosiers will play for the national championship.

College Football HQ picks…

• Indiana wins 33-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

How to watch the Peach Bowl Game

When: Fri., Jan. 9
Where: Atlanta

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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ATLANTA — Oregon’s options for who to rotate in at safety and nickel in the Peach Bowl are finite, but not inexperienced.

Peyton Woodyard has 22 tackles and an interception as a backup this season. The sophomore is the next player behind starting deep safeties Dillon Thieneman and Aaron Flowers and could also play nickel behind Jadon Canady in the Peach Bowl against No. 1 Indiana.

Woodyard was UO’s only freshman defensive player not to redshirt last season. Though he fell behind Flowers and Lopa prior to the season, he’s still prepared to play a significant role, which could come in Friday’s College Football Playoff semifinal.

“You’d have more concern if you had a guy that wasn’t preparing like he wasn’t a starter,” defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi said. “But that’s the way he prepares. I’ve got the faith that we’re not going to put somebody out there that we don’t trust. … I don’t think if he’s out there competing for us, I wouldn’t hesitate one bit to put (him) out there.”

No. 5 Oregon lost Kingston Lopa and Daylen Austin to the transfer portal since the start of the playoff.

Walk-on Zach Grisham (44) and Woodyard (30) have the most snaps at nickel behind Canady and Austin. Woodyard has played 171 snaps this season, but just one in the Orange Bowl when Canady came out for a play. He played three snaps at deep safety during the October 11 game against Indiana.

Grisham has nine tackles in 11 games, splitting time between defense and special teams. He came in for the last defensive play in the Orange Bowl.

Lupoi called Grisham “an absolute baller” for the effort he brings to the field.

The Ducks may need to rely on one or both for a few snaps in the biggest game of the season.

“(Woodyard) brings a lot of range and he’s really smart,” Flowers said. “A really vocal leader. Great tackler. I feel super comfortable playing out there with him. Zach, he’s a man of the game. He knows every position; he knows star, safety. He’s really quick, really good man coverage.”

Two powerhouse matchups. One step away from the national championship.

After a longer wait between games in the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff, we should have two fantastic games in the semifinals, and Vegas thinks so, too.

Miami (Fla.) and Ole Miss go head-to-head fresh off their stunning upsets over Ohio State and Georgia, respectively, in the quarterfinals. Indiana and Oregon, meanwhile, will meet up in the Peach Bowl in a game that I’m really excited about.

So, let’s dive into what I think will happen in each game, and who I have winning to advance to the national championship game. 

Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss

When I first started watching film of this matchup, the first thing I thought of — and Miami fans are going to love this, because the last thing they want is me picking Miami after picking against the Hurricanes in the first two rounds — is that this Ole Miss team resembles the SMU team it lost to. 

By the way, it’s an SMU team I just spent time around during the Holiday Bowl and I had a conversation with SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee about Miami. We both talked about how dominant Miami is on the offense and defensive lines — that defensive line is excellent. But one thing SMU was able to do was utilize tempo on offense. So, a quicker tempo to try and tire those pass rushers while getting the ball on the perimeter as much in the first half as possible. Once the pass rushers got tired in the second half, it was easier for SMU to play offense and and it took advantage of that. 

Well, Ole Miss can do that. I think Trinidad Chambliss is a better quarterback than SMU’s Kevin Jennings. Ole Miss can run the ball with Kewan Lacy. The Rebels can get on the perimeter and Chambliss can create. He’s wonderful at creating. He was so good against Georgia, buying time, showing off his strong and accurate arm. 

So, at first blush, I liked Ole Miss in this game and the question for me was whether it would be able to hold up at the line of scrimmage. But that’s not the main question for me with this game. The main question of this game is who is coaching for Ole Miss? I cannot believe we’re in this situation where the head coach of a team playing in the semifinal is saying, “Well, I don’t really know what’s going on with the offensive coaching staff.” Are we kidding? What in the world is going on? In what world are we operating? 

This is what I find so frustrating about this situation. This moment is meant to be so special for the players. It should be about Chambliss, Lacy and all these players who’ve put themselves in a position to win the national championship. Yet, they’re not being given the best possible opportunity to do that. This is not a coach’s moment.

Now, we’re talking about whether Ole Miss offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is back to game plan for the offense? I think Weis should’ve stayed at Ole Miss in the first place, but he followed Lane Kiffin to LSU and is still working with the Rebels through the CFP. Weis proved that he can call plays and that he doesn’t need to be under Kiffin in the win over Georgia. But now we’re sitting here and we don’t know what’s going on with Ole Miss’ offensive coaches. They should be there to build, implement, execute and call the game plan. It’s not just about who’s there on Thursday, it’s about who’s there the last seven or eight days. What should’ve happened in this situation was Kiffin allowing those coaches to remain in Oxford in a full capacity until the end of Ole Miss’ CFP run. 

Because of that, it has made me rethink what I believe will take place in this game. What I know about this game is that Miami has something that it can rely on, and it’s at the line of scrimmage on both sides. The offensive line with tackle Francis Mauigoa and the run game with running back Mark Fletcher Jr. have allowed Miami to not put quarterback Carson Beck in a position where he needs to throw the ball on third-and-long. How many times was he able to pick up a first down on a first-and-manageable? He had huge pickups with his feet, and he hasn’t needed to throw the ball 150 yards so far in this playoff. If Miami can control the tempo and line of scrimmage in this game, it’ll have a great chance to win this game.

On the flip side, it’s about corralling Chambliss if you’re Miami’s defense. If he can create, who knows how many points Ole Miss can score? This is a very good Ole Miss offense and it’s led by a quarterback who can force a lot of problems. 

What do I think is going to happen? The quickest way to be defeated is to be distracted, and Miami fans, I’m sorry to do this to you, but I’ve got to go with the Canes.

Pick: Miami (Fla.) 30, Ole Miss 24 (Miami -3.5)

Peach Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Indiana

This is going to be one heck of a game, and we’ve already seen these two teams go head-to-head. We saw Indiana beat Oregon in Eugene in an incredible game that was tied in the fourth quarter before the Hoosiers pulled away with an incredible drive from Fernando Mendoza. 

Let me talk a little bit about Indiana. You’re here because you love this sport like I do, but there are things that can be frustrating and there’s one thing that’s frustrating with this Indiana team. There’s an overlooking of Indiana that’s happening right now across the country. The reason I know that is that Indiana’s résumé is the best résumé in all of college football, without a doubt. Indiana’s the most tested team in the country. The Hoosiers are 14-0 and have handled everybody. They have only given up more than 15 offensive points one time this year, and that was in a game on the road against Penn State. Indiana has only given up more than one touchdown in two games. This is the team that’s so sound, mistake-free and just absolutely bludgeoned Alabama.

If you listen to some of the loudest voices, you get a sense that they think anyone can win the national championship. But if this Indiana team had any other logo, we would all be talking about whether this is the best team we’ve ever seen in college football. Yes, I know I’ve been guilty of this as well with the way I talked about Ohio State earlier this season, but no team in the history of our sport has ever gone 16-0. Granted, that’s a scheduling thing, but Indiana has a chance to do that and it’s been one of the great defensive teams we’ve had in a long time. 

So no, this isn’t a wide-open playoff. Indiana and Oregon are the odds-on favorites to win it all by a wide margin because of how tested they’ve been. That’s specifically the case for Indiana, which beat three teams that played in the CFP quarterfinals. No other team can say that. This team stands on business as the best team in college football.

To that end, there are four tight games Indiana has played this year. If you’re Oregon, you’ve got to mimic those tight games. Oregon understands that blueprint because it played in one of those games. The blueprint isn’t simple, but in every one of those games, a few things happen. One of them is attacking Indiana’s strengths and making it work to succeed. The first area I would go after is Indiana’s run game. In all four of its close matchups, Indiana ran for less than 4 yards per carry. You have to do that just to remain in the game. When Indiana is able to run the ball efficiently, it’s almost unstoppable on third down. Indiana had the No. 1 third-down offense in college football because it’s in short-yardage situations. 

Second, Oregon has to find a way to score in the red zone, and I’m not talking about field goals. One of the things that goes unnoticed with Indiana is how elite its defense has been and how strong its red zone defense is. Indiana is No. 1 in the country in red zone touchdown percentage against at 26%. It’s a low number that we haven’t seen in several years. Oregon was 0-for-3 in scoring red zone touchdowns in the first matchup. 

Lastly, Oregon has to play cleanly against this Indiana team. Indiana plays clean and doesn’t make mistakes. Indiana is ice-cold, no mistakes, to quote Ice Man from “Top Gun.” Maybe we should start calling Curt Cignetti Ice Man because Indiana is phenomenal at limiting penalties and turnovers. Indiana posted the third-fewest penalties per game this season and has only committed eight turnovers so far. Indiana’s turnover margin is plus-18, which is tied for first in the nation. 

Those are three things Oregon needs to do just to be in the game late. Even then, that might not be enough because Indiana might be the most clutch team in college football. The Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza, was clutch in all four of Indiana’s tight wins this year. 

This Oregon team is no slouch, though. What Dan Lanning has built at Oregon can’t be overstated. Oregon is 38-4 in the last three years, losing to Washington twice (played for national championship in 2023), Ohio State (won national championship in 2024) and Indiana earlier this year. This is a great program that’s deep and strong at almost every position. It just happens to be going against a team that’s suffocatingly good. 

When Oregon’s offense gets its chances, quarterback Dante Moore has got to capitalize. Oregon can’t have mistakes and miscues. Lanning is going to have to manage a really great game because if you miss a chance against Indiana, there’s a good chance the Hoosiers are going to win the game. 

If there’s one team that can do it, though, it would be Oregon. If you take away sacks, Oregon ran the ball for 4.8 yards per carry in its first matchup against Indiana. That’s the best way to protect Moore. We saw Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson struggle against Indiana when their respective teams didn’t run the ball efficiently and early in down sets. 

I can talk all day about this game, but I’ve got to make a pick. I’ve got Indiana winning and covering, although this will be a phenomenal game. 

Pick: Indiana 27, Oregon 21 (Indiana -4.5)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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