An El Nino cycle is expected to begin this summer, though the strength of that cycle — and how it will impact Hawaii — is still up for debate.

El Nino cycles are defined by warming sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and weak tradewinds that push warm water east toward the U.S. West Coast and can change global weather patterns. Meteorologists have been warning of a possible El Nino, and “super El Nino,” in recent months, but climate modeling can only forecast so far ahead.

According to the latest update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, an El Nino cycle had an 82% chance of emerging between May and July and a 96% chance of continuing through December to February.

El Nino cycles don’t necessarily mean certain weather will happen, but it tips the scales of probability.

For Hawaii’s hurricane season, which lasts from June through November, El Nino cycles can make it more likely to have increased and more intense storms in the Central Pacific region. That likelihood only increases with stronger El Nino cycles characterized by even warmer surface water temperatures.

“Stronger events do not always mean bigger weather and climate impacts,” the Prediction Center clarified. “Stronger events can make it more likely that certain impacts could occur.”

As of Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center’s data showed it’s more likely for the majority Hawaii’s hurricane season to coincide with a more than 50% chance of weak El Nino conditions between May and August and a 24% chance of moderate El Nino conditions, or water temperatures between 1 and 1-1/2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual from June through August.

The El Nino cycle’s likelihood of strengthening increases through the winter, the prediction showed, with the three months at the tail end of hurricane season — September, October and November — having a 20% chance of being weak, a 31% chance of being moderate, a 26% chance of being strong with water temperatures between 1-1/2 and 2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual, and a 15% chance of being very strong with water temperatures more than 2 degrees warmer than usual.

In the three months leading to January, however, the strength of the El Nino cycle is a tossup, with a 15% chance of it being weak, a 26% chance of it being moderate or strong, and a 25% chance of it being very strong.

A stronger El Nino season in the winter and spring could mean even warmer and drier conditions are likely, Hawaii State Climatologist Pao-Shin Chu told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, which can increase wildfire risk.

The August 2023 Lahaina wildfire was preceded by a strong shift from a La Nina cycle, which is characterized by cooler than usual surface sea temperatures in the Pacific, to a strong El Nino in July. Winds from a nearby hurricane exacerbated the fire’s reach in the arid area, killing 102 people and destroying more than 2,200 structures.

In the meantime, state and county emergency officials are encouraging all residents to be prepared for natural disasters. While an El Nino cycle doesn’t mean Hawaii will be hit with hurricanes or wildfires, it only takes one disaster to have catastrophic consequences.

The state Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Insurance Division is advising consumers to evaluate their insurance policies before hurricane season begins June 1, adding that most standard homeowners and renters insurance policies do not cover hurricane or flood damage.

Emergency officials said residents should have a plan of action, as most shelters across the state cannot withstand hurricanes beyond a Category 1 storm, which can generate sustained winds of 74 to 94 miles per hour.

Only three state buildings have completed or are undergoing hurricane retrofitting for up to a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 111 to 129 miles per hour, Hawaii Emergency Management Agency information specialist Patrick Daley confirmed. Those are located in the Waialua High School gym on Oahu, the Molokai High School gym and the band room at Laupahoehoe Community Public Charter School, formerly Laupahoehoe High and Elementary School, on Hawaii Island.

Emergency officials said shelters should be a last resort and urged residents to retrofit their homes or seek refuge at another resident’s retrofitted home. Concrete buildings will be a safer option compared to wood buildings and residents should also have a two-week supply of necessities ready in the event of a disaster.

The University of Hawaii Sea Grant program offers a free handbook to help homeowners prepare for natural disasters on its website. The handbook also covers several retrofit measures to protect homes from hurricanes.

Hilo runs on rainforest microclimate, banyan trees in Liliʻuokalani Gardens, and a working downtown of early 20th-century storefronts along Kamehameha Avenue. Kapaʻa is laid out around an eight-mile coastal path that links beaches at Fuji and Lydgate with the Wailua River corridor. Hanalei sits on Kauaʻi’s north shore between taro fields and the Nā Pali ridges with a single main road and a wildlife refuge protecting nēnē and Hawaiian coot. Volcano village holds 4,000 feet of elevation, ʻōhiʻa forests, and direct access to Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. The nine Hawaii small towns ahead each carry a working senior community alongside the specific island setting that defines daily life.

Wailuku (Maui)

Wailuku serves as Maui’s county seat, with healthcare, services, and an active retiree community close at hand. Downtown, the landmark Iao Theater (a 1927 performance venue that still draws community programming) sits alongside cafés like Sam Sato’s, which serves dry mein and handmade manju.

A short drive inland, ʻĪao Valley State Monument carries deep significance as a sacred site in Hawaiian culture and as the location of the 1790 Battle of Kepaniwai. The valley features the ʻĪao Needle, a 1,200-foot vegetated rock pinnacle accessible via short paved walking paths that wind through one of Maui’s more dramatic landscapes. Wailuku layers cultural depth over everyday convenience.

Hilo (Big Island)

On the windward coast of the Big Island, Hilo offers a rainforest-lined alternative to the resort zones, where retirement runs against a backdrop of waterfalls and the banyan trees in Liliʻuokalani Gardens. The historic downtown along Kamehameha Avenue features early 20th-century storefronts like the Palace Theater, independent shops such as Basically Books, and long-running local favorites like Cafe Pesto, known for its ʻōhiʻa-wood-fired pizzas and waterfront setting.

Beyond downtown, nature stays close at hand. A few miles inland, Rainbow Falls drops about 80 feet into a lava-rock basin that often catches morning light in drifting mist. Nearby Boiling Pots holds a series of tiered pools carved by ancient lava flows. The Hilo Farmers Market serves as a central gathering place, with more than 200 vendors selling tropical fruit, locally grown coffee, orchids, and handmade crafts throughout the week.

Kailua-Kona (Big Island)

On the drier west coast, Kailua-Kona delivers consistent sunshine and direct ocean access, making it one of the more climate-stable retirement options in the state. Life centers around Aliʻi Drive, a coastal road where restaurants, shops, and historic landmarks sit just steps from the water. Snorkeling in the calm, shallow waters at Kahaluʻu Beach Park comes with frequent sea turtle sightings. A short walk inland leads to Huliheʻe Palace, a restored 19th-century royal residence with koa-wood furnishings and oceanfront views. South of town, the slopes of South Kona run into coffee and cacao country, where small farms offer tastings and tours that add sensory layers to daily life beyond the shoreline.

Captain Cook (Big Island)

Further south along the Kona coast, Captain Cook offers a quieter alternative with a strong agricultural identity and a connection to Hawaii’s growing chocolate industry. Small-scale farms such as the Original Hawaiian Chocolate Factory cultivate cacao trees on the volcanic slopes, offering guided tours that walk through fermentation, drying, and small-batch chocolate production. The hands-on tastings reflect the terroir of the region.

The Captain Cook Monument Trail descends nearly 1,300 feet to Kealakekua Bay, where exceptionally clear water makes the cove one of the better snorkeling spots in the state. The combination of agricultural richness and coastal access gives Captain Cook a well-rounded daily rhythm.

Kapaʻa (Kauaʻi)

Stretching along Kauaʻi’s eastern shore, Kapaʻa offers one of the more retiree-friendly layouts in the state, where recreation is built directly into the town’s design. The Ke Ala Hele Makalae Coastal Path runs for nearly eight miles along the ocean, with paved, mostly flat terrain suitable for walking or biking.

Along the route, spots like Fuji Beach and Lydgate Beach Park serve as easy entry points for swimming and picnicking. Just inland, the Wailua River (Hawaii’s only navigable river) supports kayaking trips to Secret Falls. Caffè Coco, a garden-set café outside town, makes for a shaded spot to linger over locally sourced food away from the usual tourist trail.

Hanalei (Kauaʻi)

For retirees seeking stillness on Kauaʻi’s north shore, Hanalei runs at a pace set by the valley rather than the clock. Framed by the taro fields of Hanalei Valley and the steep emerald ridges leading toward the Nā Pali Coast, Hanalei works as both a remote town and a deeply rooted place.

The single main road, Kuhio Highway, passes beneath rain-soaked mountain peaks. It is lined with surf shops, art galleries, and longtime local staples such as the Hanalei Bread Company (known for its open-air courtyard and locally sourced breakfasts) and Tahiti Nui, a live-music venue that has anchored the town for decades. Beyond the town, Hanalei National Wildlife Refuge protects nearly 1,000 acres of wetlands and taro fields that support endangered Hawaiian waterbirds including the nēnē and Hawaiian coot.

Haleʻiwa (Oʻahu)

Haleʻiwa anchors Oʻahu’s North Shore with a walkable historic district and easy access to some of the island’s most recognizable beaches. Plantation-era buildings line Kamehameha Highway with surf shops, the cooperative Haleiwa Art Gallery, and local favorites like Coffee Gallery. Within minutes, Waimea Bay opens up with calm summer swimming waters and dramatic winter surf worth watching from the shore.

The Anahulu River draws stand-up paddleboarders on calmer days, with quiet banks a world apart from the surf breaks just down the road. Nearby, Waimea Valley offers a paved, shaded path leading to a 45-foot waterfall where swimming is permitted. Roughly an hour from Honolulu, Haleʻiwa works as a sensible option for retirees seeking both quiet surroundings and access to urban amenities.

Makawao (Maui)

On the slopes of Haleakalā, Makawao mixes upcountry coolness with a working artistic identity. Baldwin Avenue forms the heart of town, where Hot Island Glass, a working studio, invites visitors to watch artists shape molten glass into sculpture and vessels. The Makawao Forest Reserve carries over 20 miles of trails shaded by pine and eucalyptus, with cooler hiking conditions than the coastal areas. Seasonal events including the Fourth of July Makawao Rodeo (one of Hawaii’s longest-running paniolo celebrations) and the monthly Makawao Art Walk give retirees and visiting grandkids plenty to plan around.

Volcano (Big Island)

Volcano runs a cool, misty environment defined by its 4,000-foot elevation, native ʻōhiʻa forests, and frequent rainfall. With a small population and quiet residential streets, the village feels more like a retreat than a typical town. Just outside Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, residents have direct access to crater overlooks and trails that wind through active volcanic landscapes.

Active retirees appreciate the Kīlauea Iki Trail, which descends into a hardened lava lake for an immersive hiking experience. After a day on the trails, Volcano Winery handles tastings of wines crafted from tropical fruits and local tea blossoms. For retirees drawn to solitude, creativity, and dramatic natural surroundings, Volcano makes its case quickly.

Aging In Place On The Islands

Retiring in Hawaii means walking coastal paths in Kapaʻa one week and visiting cacao groves in Captain Cook the next. In each of the nine towns above, retirees and their families have the chance to build a lifestyle around movement, environment, and connection. In Hawaii’s smaller communities, retirement is less about slowing down and more about settling in.

Hawaii officials say they plan to follow state law requiring mail-in voting this year while lawsuits proceed over President Donald Trump’s executive order that critics say would give the federal government unprecedented control over U.S. elections despite the Constitution’s guarantee that Congress and each state hold that authority.

State Attorney General Anne Lopez announced April 3 that Hawaii had joined a coalition of 19 attorneys general in suing Trump in U.S. District Court in Massachusetts, saying his executive order is clearly unconstitutional and would impose new requirements, including proof of U.S. citizenship in order to register to vote.

They argue the order could lead to a national database that could be used for immigration enforcement, cause fear in state election officials and sow chaos and uncertainty that could have a chilling effect on states like Hawaii with strong histories of immigration.

“We think it’s a piece of a larger effort to try to reduce the number of people voting that will chill the right to vote,” said Emily Hills, senior staff attorney for the Hawaii chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union.

Lopez said in a statement that Hawaii joined the lawsuits challenging Trump’s executive order, in part, because it “intrudes on Congress’ and the states’ power over elections. This unlawful effort to usurp election authority will irreparably harm the states and interfere with the lawful exercise of the right to vote.”

The order also requires states to rewrite their ballot-counting laws to exclude absentee or mail-in ballots received after Election Day. In Hawaii, ballots must be received by county election officials before voting ends at 7 p.m. on Election Day in order to be counted.

In the November 2024 presidential election, 860,868 island residents registered to vote and 61% turned in ballots.

Out of the 522,236 residents who voted, 92.5% — or 483,078 — cast their ballots by mail compared with 7.5% — or 39,158 — who voted in person at polling centers.

Even so, in-person voters inundated balloting locations on all islands on Election Day, delaying the first return of results for hours. Trump has encouraged his supporters to not trust mail-in balloting and early in-person voting, calling on them to turn out on Election Day instead.

Hawaii voters in 2024 overwhelmingly voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump, who gained only 37% of votes cast statewide compared to Harris, who won 60% but lost nationally.

Since then, the Trump administration has persuaded the U.S. Supreme Court to fast-track multiple cases, leading supporters of Hawaii’s mail-in voting to worry the court could decide in Trump’s favor ahead of the state’s Aug. 8 party primaries or Nov. 3 general election.

“It does seem like the United States Supreme Court has been expediting things at the government’s request,” Hills said. “Certainly anything on the eve of an election would be very, very difficult for states, not just Hawaii, to be able to cope with.”

Hills declined to speculate whether the Supreme Court will hear arguments — or make a ruling — ahead of either Hawaii’s primary or general elections.

“I’ve been surprised before,” Hills said. “So, I’m really not making any predictions. I don’t always see eye-to-eye with the way the current Supreme Court rules on things. But I completely sympathize with the state for not wanting to put time and energy and money into contingency plans because that’s time and energy and money that could go to other places.”

Concerns over Trump’s mail-in executive order increased after the Supreme Court last month gutted the Voting Rights Act by excluding race as a factor in drawing political districts.

The Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law also joined the lawsuit challenging Trump’s mail-in voting executive order, saying it directs the U.S. Postal Service to determine who may vote by mail. It gives the Postal Service the power to “refuse to deliver ballots sent by anyone not included on newly created federal mail voter lists,” according to the nonpartisan Brennan Center. “It threatens criminal penalties for election officials, mail carriers, and others who send ballots to or deliver ballots from individuals the administration deems ineligible.

“Far from improving elections, this executive order would create chaos for election officials, erode public confidence in our elections, and block Americans from exercising their most fundamental right and responsibility as citizens — voting,” Brennan Center officials said.

For now, state Elections Officer Scott Nago said there are no backup plans for Hawaii to change course on mail-in voting ahead of any potential ruling by the Supreme Court.

“We still have laws we have to follow, which is the state law,” Nago said. “So we can’t just change without any change to the law.”

Colin Moore, who teaches public policy at the University of Hawaii, called Trump’s executive order “a violation of the Constitution that says that only states and Congress have control over federal elections. The president has no role. The Constitution is pretty clear that this is not a power granted to the president.”

He agreed that Trump’s mail-in directive is part of a larger effort to take control of states’ voter registration data while intimidating state elections officers across the country.

Mail-in voting was originally pushed in the 1990s by Republicans in Oregon to “help voters get their votes in, which would help Republicans in Oregon,” Moore said.

The push for mail-in voting spread to become a bipartisan issue with both Democrats and Republicans arguing it makes it easier for voters in rural communities to cast their ballots.

Then, Moore said, “Trump got involved and started making these baseless claims that all mail voting is full of fraud or that noncitizens are voting, none of which has ever been proven.

“No one has found widespread voter fraud in the way that Trump alleges,” he said. “The irony here is that vote-by-mail is extremely popular nearly everywhere it exists.”