An El Nino cycle is expected to begin this summer, though the strength of that cycle — and how it will impact Hawaii — is still up for debate.
El Nino cycles are defined by warming sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and weak tradewinds that push warm water east toward the U.S. West Coast and can change global weather patterns. Meteorologists have been warning of a possible El Nino, and “super El Nino,” in recent months, but climate modeling can only forecast so far ahead.
According to the latest update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, an El Nino cycle had an 82% chance of emerging between May and July and a 96% chance of continuing through December to February.
El Nino cycles don’t necessarily mean certain weather will happen, but it tips the scales of probability.
For Hawaii’s hurricane season, which lasts from June through November, El Nino cycles can make it more likely to have increased and more intense storms in the Central Pacific region. That likelihood only increases with stronger El Nino cycles characterized by even warmer surface water temperatures.
“Stronger events do not always mean bigger weather and climate impacts,” the Prediction Center clarified. “Stronger events can make it more likely that certain impacts could occur.”
As of Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center’s data showed it’s more likely for the majority Hawaii’s hurricane season to coincide with a more than 50% chance of weak El Nino conditions between May and August and a 24% chance of moderate El Nino conditions, or water temperatures between 1 and 1-1/2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual from June through August.
The El Nino cycle’s likelihood of strengthening increases through the winter, the prediction showed, with the three months at the tail end of hurricane season — September, October and November — having a 20% chance of being weak, a 31% chance of being moderate, a 26% chance of being strong with water temperatures between 1-1/2 and 2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual, and a 15% chance of being very strong with water temperatures more than 2 degrees warmer than usual.
In the three months leading to January, however, the strength of the El Nino cycle is a tossup, with a 15% chance of it being weak, a 26% chance of it being moderate or strong, and a 25% chance of it being very strong.
A stronger El Nino season in the winter and spring could mean even warmer and drier conditions are likely, Hawaii State Climatologist Pao-Shin Chu told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, which can increase wildfire risk.
The August 2023 Lahaina wildfire was preceded by a strong shift from a La Nina cycle, which is characterized by cooler than usual surface sea temperatures in the Pacific, to a strong El Nino in July. Winds from a nearby hurricane exacerbated the fire’s reach in the arid area, killing 102 people and destroying more than 2,200 structures.
In the meantime, state and county emergency officials are encouraging all residents to be prepared for natural disasters. While an El Nino cycle doesn’t mean Hawaii will be hit with hurricanes or wildfires, it only takes one disaster to have catastrophic consequences.
The state Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Insurance Division is advising consumers to evaluate their insurance policies before hurricane season begins June 1, adding that most standard homeowners and renters insurance policies do not cover hurricane or flood damage.
Emergency officials said residents should have a plan of action, as most shelters across the state cannot withstand hurricanes beyond a Category 1 storm, which can generate sustained winds of 74 to 94 miles per hour.
Only three state buildings have completed or are undergoing hurricane retrofitting for up to a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 111 to 129 miles per hour, Hawaii Emergency Management Agency information specialist Patrick Daley confirmed. Those are located in the Waialua High School gym on Oahu, the Molokai High School gym and the band room at Laupahoehoe Community Public Charter School, formerly Laupahoehoe High and Elementary School, on Hawaii Island.
Emergency officials said shelters should be a last resort and urged residents to retrofit their homes or seek refuge at another resident’s retrofitted home. Concrete buildings will be a safer option compared to wood buildings and residents should also have a two-week supply of necessities ready in the event of a disaster.
The University of Hawaii Sea Grant program offers a free handbook to help homeowners prepare for natural disasters on its website. The handbook also covers several retrofit measures to protect homes from hurricanes.
KILAUEA, Kauai (HawaiiNewsNow) – The Kauai Police Department is asking residents to avoid Kilauea Road due to an ongoing homicide investigation.
New photos and videos of the area show heavily armed police units in the area of Kilauea town on the north side of Kauai.
At around 9 a.m., KPD posted to Facebook that Kilauea Road between Holo Road and Kaikala Street was closed due to the investigation.
Sources said police are investigating the homicide that appears to have led to a standoff.
Hawaii News Now spoke to a man who was housesitting next door, and he said officers have been shooting tear gas and throwing flashbangs since early Saturday morning.
“They have someone on megaphone you can hear em now trying to communicate with him. I don’t think he’s talked to them at all,” said Maxamillian Deleon.
“He was shooting at anyone driving by, coming or going,” he added. “Super intense, stressful day in Kilauea.”
Residents are asked to avoid the area.
Copyright 2026 Hawaii News Now. All rights reserved.
DETROIT — A man from Honolulu faces federal charges for threatening to attack the state Capitol and kill Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, along with “as many people as possible,” officials said.
Ronald Saville was charged Monday with sending threats by interstate communication, according to Ken Sorenson, U.S. Attorney for the District of Hawaii. The 48-year-old identified himself in an email to the Michigan State Police as originally from Michigan, according to an affidavit filed with the criminal complaint. The affidavit said Saville is homeless and has been living on the Hawaiian island of Oahu.
Saville allegedly emailed the Michigan State Police on May 9, identifying himself and threatening he would “walk in with a gun at A.R. 15 and open fire and kill as many people as possible. I mean what I say I’m not a joke.”
He also allegedly emailed Whitmer, saying “just to let you know on Tuesday second, Lancy, Michigan is never gonna be the same again going to walk into the state capital shoot it up and kill as many people as possible than that I’m coming for you[.]”
He was staying in the Adventist Health Castle Behavioral Health Unit in Kailua, Hawaii, when the FBI interviewed him on May 26. Saville said he intended to scare Whitmer by sending the email and didn’t actually plan to hurt her, according to the affidavit, but also said there was a “75% chance” he would have followed through on his threats had he been living in Michigan at the time.
Saville has two previous convictions for making threats against former President George W. Bush in 2006 and former U.S. District Judge Susan Oki Mollway in 2012, a release from Sorenson’s office said.
He allegedly said he also made two fake bomb threats in 2025 in Hawaii to Walmart and another business called Don Quijote.
Saville is accused of calling the FBI on May 12 and telling an agent he wanted to kill Whitmer because of her political affiliation as a Democrat, and that he had been researching online to plan a trip to Michigan to act on his threat.
“Governor Whitmer has repeatedly denounced political violence as unacceptable, and she calls on all Americans to stand up against any and all forms of it,” Stacey LaRouche, a spokeswoman for Whitmer, said in an email to The News. “For too long, we’ve seen divisive rhetoric fuel political violence from threats here in Michigan to tragedies across the country.”
He was arrested Monday in Abilene, Texas, authorities said. A U.S. Department of Justice spokesperson declined to explain how Saville came to be in the state or provide further details surrounding his apprehension.
Saville had an initial court appearance in the Northern District of Texas the same day, and was detained and ordered transported to Hawaii. He was indicted by a federal grand jury on Thursday.
He faces up to five years in prison for each count if convicted, according to the U.S. Attorney’s office, a fine of up to $250,000 and a term of supervised release.
Whitmer has faced other violent threats during her two terms as Michigan’s governor.
A kidnapping plot, described as the largest domestic terrorism case in a generation, led to convictions in 2022 against two men, acquittals of two others and two of the accused taking guilty pleas and flipping to testify as federal witnesses. But the case was also marked by controversy about concerns over misconduct by FBI agents and accusations of government agents orchestrating the conspiracy to entrap the accused plotters.
In 2024, Jihaad Ahmad, an inmate in Ionia’s Bellamy Creek Correction Facility, was charged for allegedly threatening to bomb Whitmer’s residence as retaliation for being denied parole.
In February, 40-year-old Steven Conway of Center Line was sentenced to 10 months in prison and two years of supervised release for posting on an online dating website that Whitmer was “marked for assassination” in the winter of 2025.
A 19-year-old man who turned himself into Honolulu Police Department officers Thursday night was charged tonight with an assault at Waialee Beach on Saturday night that sent a 23-year-old man and a 15-year-old boy to the hospital with broken bones and concussions. The 19-year-old was charged with attempted assault in the first degree. His bail is set at $35,000.
Six juveniles who were previously arrested also have been charged in connection with the assault.
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