Hawaii
Odds of El Nino forming this summer increase – West Hawaii Today
An El Nino cycle is expected to begin this summer, though the strength of that cycle — and how it will impact Hawaii — is still up for debate.
El Nino cycles are defined by warming sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and weak tradewinds that push warm water east toward the U.S. West Coast and can change global weather patterns. Meteorologists have been warning of a possible El Nino, and “super El Nino,” in recent months, but climate modeling can only forecast so far ahead.
According to the latest update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, an El Nino cycle had an 82% chance of emerging between May and July and a 96% chance of continuing through December to February.
El Nino cycles don’t necessarily mean certain weather will happen, but it tips the scales of probability.
For Hawaii’s hurricane season, which lasts from June through November, El Nino cycles can make it more likely to have increased and more intense storms in the Central Pacific region. That likelihood only increases with stronger El Nino cycles characterized by even warmer surface water temperatures.
“Stronger events do not always mean bigger weather and climate impacts,” the Prediction Center clarified. “Stronger events can make it more likely that certain impacts could occur.”
As of Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center’s data showed it’s more likely for the majority Hawaii’s hurricane season to coincide with a more than 50% chance of weak El Nino conditions between May and August and a 24% chance of moderate El Nino conditions, or water temperatures between 1 and 1-1/2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual from June through August.
The El Nino cycle’s likelihood of strengthening increases through the winter, the prediction showed, with the three months at the tail end of hurricane season — September, October and November — having a 20% chance of being weak, a 31% chance of being moderate, a 26% chance of being strong with water temperatures between 1-1/2 and 2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual, and a 15% chance of being very strong with water temperatures more than 2 degrees warmer than usual.
In the three months leading to January, however, the strength of the El Nino cycle is a tossup, with a 15% chance of it being weak, a 26% chance of it being moderate or strong, and a 25% chance of it being very strong.
A stronger El Nino season in the winter and spring could mean even warmer and drier conditions are likely, Hawaii State Climatologist Pao-Shin Chu told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, which can increase wildfire risk.
The August 2023 Lahaina wildfire was preceded by a strong shift from a La Nina cycle, which is characterized by cooler than usual surface sea temperatures in the Pacific, to a strong El Nino in July. Winds from a nearby hurricane exacerbated the fire’s reach in the arid area, killing 102 people and destroying more than 2,200 structures.
In the meantime, state and county emergency officials are encouraging all residents to be prepared for natural disasters. While an El Nino cycle doesn’t mean Hawaii will be hit with hurricanes or wildfires, it only takes one disaster to have catastrophic consequences.
The state Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Insurance Division is advising consumers to evaluate their insurance policies before hurricane season begins June 1, adding that most standard homeowners and renters insurance policies do not cover hurricane or flood damage.
Emergency officials said residents should have a plan of action, as most shelters across the state cannot withstand hurricanes beyond a Category 1 storm, which can generate sustained winds of 74 to 94 miles per hour.
Only three state buildings have completed or are undergoing hurricane retrofitting for up to a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 111 to 129 miles per hour, Hawaii Emergency Management Agency information specialist Patrick Daley confirmed. Those are located in the Waialua High School gym on Oahu, the Molokai High School gym and the band room at Laupahoehoe Community Public Charter School, formerly Laupahoehoe High and Elementary School, on Hawaii Island.
Emergency officials said shelters should be a last resort and urged residents to retrofit their homes or seek refuge at another resident’s retrofitted home. Concrete buildings will be a safer option compared to wood buildings and residents should also have a two-week supply of necessities ready in the event of a disaster.
The University of Hawaii Sea Grant program offers a free handbook to help homeowners prepare for natural disasters on its website. The handbook also covers several retrofit measures to protect homes from hurricanes.
Hawaii
Historic Hawaiian Kukui Tree Cut Down After Nearly 30 Years at Disney’s Polynesian Village Resort – WDWNT
A notable piece of living history has been removed from Disney’s Polynesian Village Resort after reportedly dying from recent cold weather.
Walt Disney World’s One-of-a-Kind Hawaiian Tree
The Polynesian Resort’s one-of-a-kind kukui nut tree was cut down in late June after Disney horticulturalists determined the tree could no longer survive in the wake of a uniquely difficult Florida winter.
The large tropical tree was located to the rear of the Great Ceremonial House, just off a guest footpath. According to a 2020 Forestry Journal feature, it was believed to be the only tree of its kind in mainland North America.
The tree, Aleurites moluccana, was donated to Disney by the people of Hawaiʻi and planted at the resort on April 5, 1997, the 25th anniversary of the opening of Magic Kingdom.
The kukui tree carried particular significance as the state tree of Hawaiʻi from 1959 forward, and it is still regarded as an important cultural symbol of the state. The tree at Disney’s Polynesian Village Resort had been transplanted directly from Hawaiʻi, with a time capsule reportedly placed in the soil around its roots and base when it was planted.
In accordance with a traditional Hawaiian custom, according to the Forestry Journal piece, the kukui tree was planted behind the Great Ceremonial House rather than at the front, and it was deliberately planted by one lucky hotel guest, rather than a Cast Member. The article explained that this reflected a Hawaiian belief that kukui trees should be planted toward the rear, or “hale,” of a home and by a stranger to bring good luck.
In our photos, crews are seen working in the landscaped area near the resort’s longhouses and the Lava Pool. Orange cones and barricades block off portions of the walkway, with a utility vehicle and equipment nearby. The tree had been cut down, with a tall remaining trunk section visible where the kukui tree once stood.
At Disney’s Polynesian Village Resort, the tree helped support the resort’s South Pacific placemaking. The tree’s distinct light green, silvery leaves, striking trunk, and small green fruits stood out against native Florida trees and even other tropical trees planted at the resort.
For much of the kikui’s tree life, a Moreton Bay fig tree grew nearby on the opposite side of an adjacent footpath, another transplant tree which itself was removed some time around 2022.
The Facebook group Tikiman’s Unofficial Polynesian Resort Pages made a post regarding the tree’s removal, detailing that the recent unusual cold weather at the resort was too much to bear.
The tree had, however, a history of surviving violent Florida weather. A Disney Resort Team member told Forestry Journal that the kukui tree had been struck by lightning twice, survived hurricanes, nearly been uprooted, and endured prior cold snaps before this latest reported decline.
It is not currently known whether Disney plans to replace the kukui tree, or whether the reported time capsule at its base was removed, returned to the ground, or preserved elsewhere. We will keep you updated
Do you have any memories or photos of the kukui tree during its time at the Polynesian? Please share your memories with us on social media.
For the latest Disney Parks news and info, follow WDW News Today on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
Whether four-star 2028 prospect King Pitts has an offer from the Washington Huskies as an offensive lineman or an athlete, he’s firmly on Jedd Fisch and the Washington Huskies coaching staff’s radar.
The 6-foot-5, 255-pound two-way lineman is back in his native Hawaii and set to play his junior season at Kapa’a High School after playing at Cardinal Newman in California, after establishing himself as a national recruit during his sophomore year as an offensive tackle and versatile defensive lineman.
The No. 241 overall recruit—according to the 247Sports Composite—Pitts holds 43 total scholarship offers with two years still left of high school football.
As a defensive lineman, Pitts can play either defensive tackle or defensive end with his ability to be a disruptive force against the run and pass. Whichever position the Islands product ends up playing at the next level, there isn’t a question of if, but how well he’ll hold up against Big Ten and SEC-caliber talent.
UW hasn’t ventured heavily into recruiting Hawaii as much recently as the football program has in previous decades. Aside from signing tight end Kekua Aumua in the 2026 class, who began and finished his prep career at Kahuku after transferring to IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, for his junior season, Fisch has only signed one other prospect from Hawaii, Mililani quarterback Treston Kini McMillan in 2025.
Over the years, the Huskies have featured several notable recruits from the Islands, including defensive tackle Faatui Tuitele in 2019 and a pair of edge rushers, Zion Tupuola-Fetui in 2018 and Hau’oli Kikaha in 2010.
If Fisch and Co. can get the coveted two-way lineman on campus for at least one, if not multiple, unofficial visits over the course of the next 12 months, UW should be a major factor in Pitts’ recruitment long-term.
HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – A drive-by shooting road rage incident in Kailua has prompted an attempted murder police investigation.
According to the Honolulu Police Department, at around noon Sunday, an unknown man driving a white Ford van was involved in an alleged road rage incident with a 25-year-old man and his 24-year-old female passenger while they were inside their vehicle.
Police said the suspect allegedly displayed his handgun and then fired, hitting the vehicle.
No one was hurt.
Police said the investigation is ongoing and anyone with information is asked to call 911 or CrimeStoppers at (808) 955-8300.
Copyright 2026 Hawaii News Now. All rights reserved.
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