An El Nino cycle is expected to begin this summer, though the strength of that cycle — and how it will impact Hawaii — is still up for debate.

El Nino cycles are defined by warming sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and weak tradewinds that push warm water east toward the U.S. West Coast and can change global weather patterns. Meteorologists have been warning of a possible El Nino, and “super El Nino,” in recent months, but climate modeling can only forecast so far ahead.

According to the latest update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, an El Nino cycle had an 82% chance of emerging between May and July and a 96% chance of continuing through December to February.

El Nino cycles don’t necessarily mean certain weather will happen, but it tips the scales of probability.

For Hawaii’s hurricane season, which lasts from June through November, El Nino cycles can make it more likely to have increased and more intense storms in the Central Pacific region. That likelihood only increases with stronger El Nino cycles characterized by even warmer surface water temperatures.

“Stronger events do not always mean bigger weather and climate impacts,” the Prediction Center clarified. “Stronger events can make it more likely that certain impacts could occur.”

As of Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center’s data showed it’s more likely for the majority Hawaii’s hurricane season to coincide with a more than 50% chance of weak El Nino conditions between May and August and a 24% chance of moderate El Nino conditions, or water temperatures between 1 and 1-1/2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual from June through August.

The El Nino cycle’s likelihood of strengthening increases through the winter, the prediction showed, with the three months at the tail end of hurricane season — September, October and November — having a 20% chance of being weak, a 31% chance of being moderate, a 26% chance of being strong with water temperatures between 1-1/2 and 2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual, and a 15% chance of being very strong with water temperatures more than 2 degrees warmer than usual.

In the three months leading to January, however, the strength of the El Nino cycle is a tossup, with a 15% chance of it being weak, a 26% chance of it being moderate or strong, and a 25% chance of it being very strong.

A stronger El Nino season in the winter and spring could mean even warmer and drier conditions are likely, Hawaii State Climatologist Pao-Shin Chu told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, which can increase wildfire risk.

The August 2023 Lahaina wildfire was preceded by a strong shift from a La Nina cycle, which is characterized by cooler than usual surface sea temperatures in the Pacific, to a strong El Nino in July. Winds from a nearby hurricane exacerbated the fire’s reach in the arid area, killing 102 people and destroying more than 2,200 structures.

In the meantime, state and county emergency officials are encouraging all residents to be prepared for natural disasters. While an El Nino cycle doesn’t mean Hawaii will be hit with hurricanes or wildfires, it only takes one disaster to have catastrophic consequences.

The state Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Insurance Division is advising consumers to evaluate their insurance policies before hurricane season begins June 1, adding that most standard homeowners and renters insurance policies do not cover hurricane or flood damage.

Emergency officials said residents should have a plan of action, as most shelters across the state cannot withstand hurricanes beyond a Category 1 storm, which can generate sustained winds of 74 to 94 miles per hour.

Only three state buildings have completed or are undergoing hurricane retrofitting for up to a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 111 to 129 miles per hour, Hawaii Emergency Management Agency information specialist Patrick Daley confirmed. Those are located in the Waialua High School gym on Oahu, the Molokai High School gym and the band room at Laupahoehoe Community Public Charter School, formerly Laupahoehoe High and Elementary School, on Hawaii Island.

Emergency officials said shelters should be a last resort and urged residents to retrofit their homes or seek refuge at another resident’s retrofitted home. Concrete buildings will be a safer option compared to wood buildings and residents should also have a two-week supply of necessities ready in the event of a disaster.

The University of Hawaii Sea Grant program offers a free handbook to help homeowners prepare for natural disasters on its website. The handbook also covers several retrofit measures to protect homes from hurricanes.

Among those who have agreed to do so are Republicans Cindy Agidius, of Moscow, and Colton Bennett, of Troy, Rep. Kyle Harris, R-Lewiston, House candidate Maureen Anderson, of Lewiston, and state Sen. Cindy Carlson, R-Riggins.

Medicaid expansion — Even before they succeeded in imposing a work requirement so technically onerous that it may disenfranchise up to 34,000 working poor Idahoans from healthcare coverage simply for failing to fill out the paperwork, lawmakers made a serious run at repealing the 2018 voter-approved Medicaid expansion outright. Last year, a measure aimed at doing that passed the House 38-32 and was held up by the Senate. Given the GOP-led Legislature’s antipathy for the program and the initiative process that implemented it, a few seats in either chamber could hold the balance of power.

Higher education — Legislative hostility toward Idaho’s colleges and universities has been on full display, first by removing diversity, equity and inclusion programs and then by disproportionately cutting state funding to correct a budget deficit brought on by the GOP’s overzealous tax-cutting propensities. As a result, annual student tuition is within striking difference of the bellwether $10,000.

At the same time, support for Gov. Brad Little’s Idaho Launch program — which promised $8,000 to help high school graduates pursue training and higher education — was tepid at best. It cleared by a 39-31 vote two years ago and already lawmakers are whittling away at it.

If you need to see what the GOP activists have in mind, look no further than the state Republican Party platform: “We strongly support professional technical and continuing education programs that provide career readiness and college preparation, but do not support using taxpayer funding for programs beyond high school.”

Legislative power brokers — Rep. Jordan Redman, R-Coeur d’Alene, is plowing new ground by allocating $350,000 to a funding apparatus that is funneling big checks, untethered by campaign finance limits, to legislative candidates. It’s not just that a sitting legislator is openly picking winners and losers among incumbents and challengers. There is so much money involved that it could make a difference.

For instance, Redman’s PAC has allocated $16,478 to Bennett’s campaign — which is almost half the amount Bennett has raised for his own campaign. Agidius, on the other hand, has raised $25,789.

Redman’s PAC also has distributed $17,383 to Harris’ effort, coming close to the $23,874 the incumbent has accumulated. Harris’ challenger, former Lewiston Mayor and City Councilor Mike Collins, has collected $30,031.

If voters are prepared to tolerate that, you have to ask at least two questions: What kind of IOUs is Redman collecting from the 20 candidates he’s supporting? And who will be the next lawmaker to follow his example?

Someone is going to decide these questions Tuesday. If not you, who? — M.T.

The Montana Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big.

Here’s a look at May 16, 2026, results for each game:

Winning Powerball numbers from May 16 drawing

08-37-40-44-65, Powerball: 18, Power Play: 3

Check Powerball payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Lotto America numbers from May 16 drawing

01-04-24-31-46, Star Ball: 02, ASB: 03

Check Lotto America payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Big Sky Bonus numbers from May 16 drawing

18-20-25-31, Bonus: 11

Check Big Sky Bonus payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Powerball Double Play numbers from May 16 drawing

11-21-27-41-59, Powerball: 18

Check Powerball Double Play payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Montana Cash numbers from May 16 drawing

10-29-34-36-40

Check Montana Cash payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Millionaire for Life numbers from May 16 drawing

07-17-24-38-45, Bonus: 04

Check Millionaire for Life payouts and previous drawings here.

Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results

When are the Montana Lottery drawings held?

• Powerball: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
• Mega Millions: 9 p.m. MT on Tuesday and Friday.
• Lucky For Life: 8:38 p.m. MT daily.
• Lotto America: 9 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.
• Big Sky Bonus: 7:30 p.m. MT daily.
• Powerball Double Play: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
• Montana Cash: 8 p.m. MT on Wednesday and Saturday.
• Millionaire for Life: 9:15 p.m. MT daily.

Missed a draw? Peek at the past week’s winning numbers.

This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Great Falls Tribune editor. You can send feedback using this form.