The Porter quarter hasn’t been worth a buffalo nickel since the All-Star break.
The Nuggets remain concerning, exhilarating and frustrating, one night playing like a parade is in their future, and the next dissolving into an unserious contender.
They are in trouble – but not just for the reason we all know (their fickle interest in defense).
Michael Porter Jr. is becoming a problem, his slump impossible to ignore as the playoffs near. The Nuggets’ path to the Western Conference Finals is to turn games into Pop-A-Shot, winning in transition, leading in scoring.
There is no chance that happens with the way Porter is shooting.
Case in point: Monday night. Jamal Murray played himself to exhaustion, competing in a way not witnessed all season. He scored 28 points in 32 minutes, and the Bulls ran away with a 10-point victory.
The Nuggets needed another max player to fill the void with Nikola Jokic out and assert his will (you know, like Aaron Gordon has recently).
Porter became a whimper. He shot 1 for 10 from 3, scoring 16 points in 35 minutes.
Bad nights happen. Porter is having an awful month.
Since the All-Streak break, Porter was shooting 30.3% beyond the arc entering Wednesday night’s game against Milwaukee. In March, he sat at 28.8 %. Russell Westbrook is considered one of the worst volume long-range shooters in the league, and even he is making 33.9 % of his 3s this season.
“Michael is such an important piece. We have to find a way to get him back on track,” coach Michael Malone said before Wednesday night’s game against Milwaukee.
After stringing together the best three-game stretch of his career, Porter has not been the same since a hamstring issue surfaced on Feb. 8. He was hitting 3s at a 41.7 % clip at that point.
“It has been night and day,” Malone admitted. “For whatever reason, he just has not been able to knock down shots we have been so accustomed to seeing him make. Michael himself, his teammates, myself, all of us combined will continue to support him and find ways to get him going.”
It paid dividends in Wednesday’s first quarter as Porter drained his first four 3s. Perhaps this will return his confidence.
Christian Braun and Peyton Watson have picked up some of the slack, but recent history tells us what happens in the postseason when a sharpshooter becomes an Otterpop. The Lakers and Timberwolves barely guarded Gordon on the perimeter — he has improved dramatically this season — creating spacing issues and making it easier to throw bodies at Jokic.
There are Porter supporters who insist he will snap out of his funk, offering up his first-round performance against the Lakers last season (22.8 points per game on 48.8% from 3) as proof. The problem is what happened next: A dreadful second-round series against the Timberwolves in which he averaged 10.7 points and shot 32.5 % from 3.
And that’s the issue. Porter is wildly inconsistent from series to series, game to game, quarter to quarter.
He is a good player. But he leaves you wanting more because of his unique size and length. He deserves credit for overcoming major back problems and staying in the lineup, even if it has left him running on fumes and on Wednesday’s injury report with a sore back. But the Nuggets need valuable, not durable.
That is the context of his contract. If he was making mid-level exception money, his contributions would be embraced. The Nuggets frequently need him to be the third scoring option, making his variance maddening.
Therein lies an uncomfortable truth. This is who he is after seven years in the league. If he has not reached his ceiling, he can touch it from here. Porter can score 18 points a game and win on the boards, then inexplicably disappear, losing his shot, while fans lose their minds as he gets outmuscled on the boards.
He has improved as an on-ball defender, but not enough to overcome poor shooting nights. And how many max players receive less attention from their own coaching staff and the opposing defense in the final four minutes of the game?
Yes, the Nuggets won a championship with a streaky Porter. But the margins have narrowed over the past two years with the departures of Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
The Nuggets are not going to wake up in the postseason and start defending like the Bad Boy Pistons. The die has been cast. A rested Jokic will provide a bump. And Murray’s numbers since mid-December scream that he will become Playoff Jamal.
Those two are not the problem. And they are not the solution, either. They will perform at a high level, doing the best they can with what they have. But the Nuggets are not getting where they want to go with Porter struggling.
If he is not shooting well, he undermines his value. He is a minus-86 when on the floor in the season’s second half. If Porter’s past six weeks are any indication, the Nuggets are staring at a first-round exit if they match up with the Timberwolves.
It is easy to argue that MPJ never should have been given his contract in the first place, pointing to his injury history. The irony is that — in a testament to his hard work — he is healthy. But being in the lineup is not enough. Every time he goes arctic from 3, the Nuggets inch closer to their season being doomed.
The reality is simple, if not harsh. When it comes to Porter, the Nuggets consistently need better. They need way more than a quarter.
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