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NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

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NFL projection model: Raiders, Commanders winning the offseason; 49ers, Cowboys slipping

The NFL offseason is well underway, and while the upcoming NFL Draft will shake things up even more, there has been no shortage of roster-altering moves. The biggest, of course, have come at quarterback. We’re still waiting for one big domino (Aaron Rodgers) to fall, but we’ve already seen huge shifts in the QB landscape. No. 1, of course, was the Seattle Seahawks trading Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders before signing former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to be their new signal caller.

How did those moves, and all of the others made so far this offseason, affect their teams’ outlooks for the 2025 season? It’s a bit like asking: Who have been the biggest winners and losers of the offseason so far? We’re going to attempt to answer that analytically using our NFL Projection Model.

Before we get there, it bears repeating: A lot can change. Teams have plenty of time to alter their standing in these rankings. But we wanted to examine where things are right now. How much value have some teams added? How much have some teams lost?

To measure that, my model uses a handful of advanced metrics and assigns a value to every player in the NFL. Think of that value as how much a single player affects the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game.

After that, I went through every transaction made this offseason and calculated the value added or lost (up through March 25). Since I’m only looking at how these moves affect each team for the 2025 season, my model does not factor in the length of the contract or money spent on contracts. It’s also important to note that this process only assesses players changing teams. Players who re-signed with their teams aren’t included because those players’ values were already included in their teams’ projections.

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With that explanation out of the way, here’s a look at how many expected points each NFL team had added or lost this offseason.

Five Biggest Winners

Las Vegas Raiders

I’m not sure how any list doesn’t include the Raiders at the top, or at the very least inside the top three, after landing Smith. The Raiders roster isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot, especially in the vaunted AFC West, but they’ve solidified the sport’s most important position with a quarterback who has proven he can give you a solid floor as a league-average QB with the ability for more. And with quarterback (presumably) locked down for the next few seasons, new coach Pete Carroll can focus on acquiring talent to fill out the rest of the roster.

New York Giants

The Giants were wise not to stop addressing the QB position after signing Jameis Winston last week. He now becomes their backup with the newly signed Russell Wilson leading the charge into 2025. Now we’ll see if they want to add a rookie to the mix in April. Beyond their solid start at QB, the Giants made some nice moves on defense by adding safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Paulson Adebo while improving the depth of their front seven. The Giants weren’t a QB away from anything significant, but they’ve quietly done a good job fortifying the roster at a position they still need to find a long-term answer for.

New England Patriots

The Patriots continued their free-agent spending spree Tuesday night, adding star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a receiving group that needed a No. 1. After that splash signing, finishing third in these rankings might seem low. And maybe it is. It probably boils down to what you think of Harold Landry III as an edge rusher. My model thinks Landry is just fine — and that’s not a bad thing. Having average players on the roster can be good if you can put stars around them. Factor in Landry’s familiarity with new head coach Mike Vrabel, and you understand why New England made the move. Offensive tackle Morgan Moses and defensive tackle Milton Williams are the other additions my model likes, and if you think Landry will be better in this new system, you can easily make an argument for the Patriots jumping the Giants in these rankings and even threatening the Raiders for the top spot.

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Indianapolis Colts

My model loved the Charvarius Ward signing, grading it as one of the most impactful moves made this offseason not involving a quarterback. While there is some risk — Ward is 28 years old — a change of scenery might be what just what the veteran cornerback needs to return to form as one of the best defensive backs in the league. Pair the Ward signing with the addition of safety Cam Bynum, and the Colts have done an excellent job of upgrading a secondary that badly needed one.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders made their splashes on the trade market rather than in free agency, and my model liked what they did. Laremy Tunsil remains one of the better left tackles in the league, and that was a position where Washington needed an upgrade. Meanwhile, wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. should fit into this Washington offense with his versatility, pairing well with the skill set of QB Jayden Daniels. Adding cornerback Jonathan Jones was another interesting move and one that my model liked. He’s up there in age (31) and didn’t have the greatest 2024 season, but if he bounces back in any way, watch out for the Commanders (again) this season.

Five Biggest Losers

New York Jets

The loss of Rodgers might be offset by the addition of Justin Fields, but there were still some major losses here. Davante Adams remains a very good wide receiver, despite getting up there in age; Moses is still a quality tackle; and the biggest loss, according to my projections, is D.J. Reed. Reed has been a quality cornerback for a while, and he’s going to be difficult to replace. I don’t necessarily disagree with letting these players walk, given the state of the roster and the price tags it would have taken to keep them in town, but there’s no debate the Jets lost some top talent this offseason.

San Francisco 49ers

This ranking shouldn’t come as a surprise to those tracking San Francisco’s offseason, which has seen a mass exodus of quality players. I already spoke about how much my model likes Ward, but the 49ers also lost Samuel, Jordan Mason, Aaron Banks, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Javon Hargrave, Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Isaac Yiadom, among others. Maybe that’s the price of doing business after paying running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk ahead of of a new contract for quarterback Brock Purdy, but the 49ers are in the middle of a transitional period, and the state of their roster shows it.

Philadelphia Eagles

One of the byproducts of winning the Super Bowl, or just being consistently competitive in the NFL, is that players on your team earn significant raises. That’s just the way it goes. Last year, the Eagles and Chiefs were near the bottom of this list after the early part of free agency, and both reached the Super Bowl, so all hope isn’t lost in Philadelphia, especially with so much talent still on the roster. But no matter how you shake it, Philadelphia will be looking to replace a lot of snaps from this year’s championship-winning squad as Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, Darius Slay Jr., C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Isaiah Rodgers are all gone.

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Dallas Cowboys

Staying in the NFC East here, the Cowboys will again be looking to primarily bolster their roster through the draft, which they’re pretty decent at, rather than free agency. The losses of DeMarcus Lawrence, Jourdan Lewis, and Chauncey Golston are daunting (though letting Lewis walk after one of his best seasons isn’t the worst decision), and the loss of Zack Martin to retirement will sting. He was certainly past his peak, but he was still a quality offensive lineman, and those are always hard to find.

Seattle Seahawks

What did you expect after they traded away their starting quarterback and a Pro Bowl-caliber wide receiver? If it’s any consolation to Seahawks fans, it’s impressive they aren’t last on this list. That’s because they replaced Smith and DK Metcalf with Darnold and Cooper Kupp to help offset those losses, while adding Lawrence to their defense. The model is skeptical Darnold can replicate his success from Minnesota, while Kupp and Lawrence are past their primes and have some injury concerns, so it’s no surprise the Seahawks still rank near the bottom.

(Photos of John Lynch, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith: Ezra Shaw and Tom Hauck / Getty Images)

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AJ Brown trade outcome: Dianna Russini paid a heavy price while Mike Vrabel emerged unscathed

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AJ Brown trade outcome: Dianna Russini paid a heavy price while Mike Vrabel emerged unscathed

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Mike Vrabel and A.J. Brown were winning on Tuesday because the long-rumored trade that reunited them was finally complete. Brown was free of his recent unhappiness with the Philadelphia Eagles, while Vrabel spoke easily and smartly about how his Super Bowl team was getting better.

It was one lovely victory lap for everybody.

Except for Dianna Russini.

New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel celebrates after the AFC championship game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field At Mile High in Denver, Colo., on Jan. 25, 2026. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

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MIKE VRABEL BREAKS HIS SILENCE ON DIANNA RUSSINI CONTROVERSY

Yes, this is about her as much as Vrabel and Brown. Those three names will be linked for a long time in NFL circles based on what happened going back as far as September of 2025, and then definitely through this offseason that was about, well, the relationship between the coach and the reporter.

If you aren’t up to speed on that relationship, you’ve got homework. And you will probably catch up easily because the reference material is everywhere — the photos of Russini and Vrabel together, the denials of anything untoward between two married people, the collapse of the professional friendship narrative, and everything after.

So, to the uninitiated, you’re excused. Go now and read the soap opera’s opening chapters. Because this might be the saga’s end, barring a major surprise.

And let me cut to that end:

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Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown walks on the field during an NFL training camp in Philadelphia on July 29, 2025. (Matt Rourke/AP Photo)

Brown wins. He’s wholly unscathed, in fact, and happy as a clam with a new team he grew up adoring.

Vrabel wins, too. Yes, he took some lumps, suffered some humiliating moments in front of reporters and had some family conversations he termed “very difficult,” but he’s ultimately none the worse for wear.

And then there’s Russini. She lost. Big time.

FORMER NFL REPORTER MICHELE TAFOYA WEIGHS IN ON WHY RUSSINI’S CREDIBILITY IS GONE

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It was saddening to watch Vrabel’s presser because it was Russini who first reported teams were calling the Eagles about Brown back in September of 2025. She first reported the Eagles weren’t interested in trading Brown.

Russini called it when she told everyone the Patriots were interested (so were the Los Angeles Rams, by the way). And she was right again when she said earlier this year that Brown wouldn’t be traded around the start of the league year in March but watch out for June.

She was dead-on accurate with practically all of it.

Dianna Russini, left, and Mike Vrabel, right, are shown in a split composite image featuring Russini with an ESPN microphone and Vrabel on the Titans sideline wearing a headset. (Imagn Images)

But everyone has surmised all that information came out of her relationship with Vrabel. All that insider work came from other alleged inside work.

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Russini’s information was great but how she seemingly attained it eventually led to her resigning from The Athletic. And sullying her professional reputation.

Losses.

MIKE VRABEL STEPS AWAY INDEFINITELY TO SEEK COUNSELING

Vrabel? He seemed just fine on Tuesday.

About the hardest thing he had to do was answer a question about Brown’s obvious displeasure last year in Philly.

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“I don’t know what happened,” Vrabel said. “I’m not trying to figure out what happened in Philadelphia. I’m trying to focus on what’s going to happen here and trying to get him acclimated to what we do and how we do it.”

Vrabel, during this press conference, congratulated a reporter for winning a marathon. He thanked Executive Vice President for Player Personnel Eliot Wolf for making the trade happen. And he took a bunch of football questions.

Dianna Russini attends the 2026 Fanatics Super Bowl Party at Pier 48 in San Francisco, California, on Feb. 7, 2026. (Cindy Ord/Getty Images)

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There was not one question about whether he indeed for months leaked to Russini details of where the Patriots and Eagles talks were. Not one question about how his family “counseling” sessions are going or if his marriage is certain to survive.

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There was nothing uncomfortable because it seems the local media lost interest or its curiosity on a day the story that Russini beat them on for months was laid bare before them.

And, the thing is, if Vrabel didn’t have to sweat this occasion, he’s probably in the clear. He’s not likely to get tough questions about the whole affair (pardon the pun) again unless more facts come out that raise the issue from the grave.

So, yeah, Mike Vrabel has survived. He’s won.

FOLLOW ARMANDO SALGUERO ON X: @ARMANDOSALGUERO

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Nelly Korda, Michelle Wie West and more: Who to watch at U.S. Women’s Open

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Nelly Korda, Michelle Wie West and more: Who to watch at U.S. Women’s Open

Reaching the summit is a dream. But staying there? That’s an altogether different challenge.

Maja Stark has a special appreciation for that now, a year after winning the U.S. Women’s Open at Erin Hills and feeling the hefty weight of expectation that came along with it.

For her, the aftermath of that victory brought heightened anxiety, and searing criticism from outsiders when the Swedish professional’s play took a dip.

“You get comments and stuff saying, ‘What happened? You just won a major; why do you suck all of a sudden?‘” Stark said at the Chevron Championship in April. “That does take some energy and just makes you focus on the wrong things. Then I got even more stressed and anxious.”

Maja Stark plays a shot from a bunker on the 17th hole during the third round of the Chevron Championship on April 25.

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(Alex Slitz / Getty Images)

Stark said she sought professional help in the form of a mental coach, sports psychologist and therapist and now believes she’s better able to withstand the scrutiny that comes with winning at the highest tier.

That career-shaping pressure will be on display again this week when the USGA brings the U.S. Women’s Open to Riviera Country Club for the first time, merging the game’s most prestigious women’s championship with a historic venue celebrating its centennial year. The tournament takes place Thursday through Sunday.

Riviera is a theater, sitting low beneath high hillsides that almost serve as balconies. Players have described the course as a stage because it can feel as if you’re being watched even when you’re alone.

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“I think there’s something very nostalgic about the facility,” said Jim Richerson, Riviera’s general manager. “The golf course has never had any major renovations or changes. The clubhouse is the exact same footprint today as it was when it was built in the 1920s.”

The U.S. Women’s Open is the oldest of the LPGA Tour’s five majors, and has long served as the standard by which women’s golf measures itself. It’s open to professionals and elite amateurs through a qualifying process, and the tournament is known for identifying the player who can withstand the most pressure under the most demanding conditions.

NBC will televise the championship and although Mike Tirico will not call the event, he knows the significance of holding it at Riviera.

“Without there being a Masters for women’s golf, that tournament really is the crown jewel of the sport,” Tirico said. “It has become the event people dream of winning. … It’s just appropriate that it’s contested at a place like Riviera that for so many generations has come to define a great championship test of golf.”

A look at some of the players to watch:

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Nelly Korda

Nelly Korda celebrates after winning the Chevron Championship LPGA golf tournament.

Nelly Korda celebrates after winning the Chevron Championship on April 26.

(David J. Phillip / Associated Press)

The world’s No. 1 player is a major needle mover for women’s golf and is a significant source of ratings when she’s in contention. She had a record five consecutive victories last season and seven overall. Her missing major is the U.S. Women’s Open. She finished in a runner-up spot last year and left Erin Hills firmly believing a win was within reach.

Jeeno Thitikul

Jeeno Thitikul plays a shot from the fairway during the first round of the Queen City Championship on May 14.

Jeeno Thitikul plays a shot from the fairway during the first round of the Queen City Championship on May 14.

(Jeff Dean / Associated Press)

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The former World No. 1 is still in pursuit of her first major championship. She’s a big question mark in the field.

Lydia Ko

Lydia Ko hits from the fairway during the second round of the LPGA Honda Thailand on Feb. 22.

Lydia Ko hits from the fairway during the second round of the LPGA Honda Thailand on Feb. 22.

(Kittinun Rodsupan / Associated Press)

This Hall of Fame player is the only golfer in modern Olympic history to win a complete set of medals — gold, silver and bronze — across three different Olympic Games. She’s still looking for her first U.S. Women’s Open win.

Charley Hull

Charley Hull hits off the 16th tee during the first round of the Mizuho Americas Open on May 7.

Charley Hull hits off the 16th tee during the first round of the Mizuho Americas Open on May 7.

(Seth Wenig / Associated Press)

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A colorful character who went viral during the 2024 Open for smoking a cigarette while signing autographs and playing. She was among a cluster who finished second in that tournament. She has three victories on the LPGA Tour but has yet to win a major.

Rose Zhang

Rose Zhang hits from the ninth tee during the final round of the Queen City Championship on May 17.

Rose Zhang hits from the ninth tee during the final round of the Queen City Championship on May 17.

(Dylan Buell / Getty Images)

Zhang, who has been splitting time between Stanford and the LPGA, amassed a remarkable collection of victories as an amateur and three years ago, became the first player in 72 years to win an LPGA Tour event in her professional debut.

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Minjee Lee

Minjee Lee prepares to putt during the third round of the Chevron Championship on April 25.

Minjee Lee prepares to putt during the third round of the Chevron Championship on April 25.

(Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

Lee, an Australian star, has won three majors including the U.S. Women’s Open in 2022. Her younger brother, Min Woo, won the 2016 U.S. Junior Amateur, making them the first brother-sister tandem to win the USGA’s junior championships.

Yuka Saso

Yuka Saso lines up a putt during the first round of the Mizuho Americas Open on May 7.

Yuka Saso lines up a putt during the first round of the Mizuho Americas Open on May 7.

(Seth Wenig / Associated Press)

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She is the anomaly of anomalies, with zero wins on the LPGA Tour with the exception of two U.S. Women’s Open victories. She won the first of those at 19 years, 11 months and seven days — astoundingly tying her for the youngest player to win the Open with Inbee Park, who was precisely that old when she won in 2008.

Lilia Vu

Lilia Vu watches her shot from the seventh tee during the third round of the Queen City Championship on May 16.

Lilia Vu watches her shot from the seventh tee during the third round of the Queen City Championship on May 16.

(Dylan Buell / Getty Images)

Vu grew up in Fountain Valley and was a standout at UCLA. She won two majors in 2023 but lately has been battling back problems.

Michelle Wie West

Michelle Wie West of the United States hits from the third tee during the first round of the Mizuho Americas Open on May 7.

Michelle Wie West of the United States hits from the third tee during the first round of the Mizuho Americas Open on May 7.

(Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

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Wie West retired three years ago after the Open at Pebble Beach, but is coming out of retirement to use her last year of exemption to play at Riviera. Her husband, Jonnie West, son of late NBA icon Jerry West, will be caddying for her.

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Tomas Hertl scores game-winner as Golden Knights rally to beat Hurricanes in Game 1 of Stanley Cup Final

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Tomas Hertl scores game-winner as Golden Knights rally to beat Hurricanes in Game 1 of Stanley Cup Final

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The Vegas Golden Knights have taken Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, erasing the Carolina Hurricanes’ early 2-0 lead to win a thrilling 5-4 game in Raleigh and set the tone for this best-of-seven series.

It’s a seven-game win streak for Vegas now, as they haven’t lost since Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the Anaheim Ducks. They surprisingly swept the Colorado Avalanche to win the West, and they kept that momentum going on the road.

Tomas Hertl was the hero for the Golden Knights in Game 1, as he scored the game-winning goal on a snipe with 3:25 left in the third period.

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Tomas Hertl of the Vegas Golden Knights celebrates a goal during the second period against the Carolina Hurricanes in Game One of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina, on June 2, 2026. (Josh Lavallee/NHLI via Getty Images)

But it wasn’t easy for Vegas in the first period when the Hurricanes were quick to assert their home-ice advantage just 25 seconds into the game.

It was the first shot on goal for either side when Nikolaj Ehlers poked a puck past an aggressive Shea Theodore for Vegas, and he sprinted down ice toward Carter Hart, who mans the Golden Knights’ net. Ehlers, though, had the perfect shot, ringing the post and sending the Hurricanes faithful into a frenzy with the 1-0 lead before some could even get to their seats.

DESPITE POTENTIAL RATINGS NIGHTMARE FOR NHL, VEGAS-CAROLINA STANLEY CUP FINAL STILL HAS PLENTY OF INTRIGUE

Then, midway through the period, Ehlers found himself in yet another breakaway scenario, and he didn’t squander the opportunity to take advantage. He put a nifty move on Hart, and his backhand found the net to make it 2-0.

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Jalen Chatfield also had his eye down ice, recognizing that Ehlers was uncovered and quickly turned Jack Eichel’s turnover into the opportunity.

But if there’s anything the Golden Knights have proved in these Stanley Cup Playoffs, it’s to never count them out. Another example of that was seen on Tuesday night.

Theodore made up for his mishap to start the game with an absolute rocket off his stick on a one-timer that saw its way through traffic and past Frederik Anderson in net to get Vegas on the board shortly after Ehlers’ second goal.

Then, as the second period got underway, it was Ivan Barbashev who decided to return the favor of scoring in 30 seconds or less. As Vegas entered the offensive zone with speed, the puck found Jack Eichel’s stick. He quickly spotted Ivan Barbashev cutting through the slot, and Barbashev fired a shot over Frederik Andersen’s right shoulder before the goalie could react.

Nikolaj Ehlers of the Carolina Hurricanes scores his second goal against the Vegas Golden Knights during the first period in Game One of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., on June 2, 2026. (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

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With that, the Golden Knights tied this game up, but they didn’t let the momentum go. William Karlsson, who already has a cup under his belt for Vegas, did his part in seeking the next trophy. Mitch Marner had a tremendous backhand pass from behind the net that found Karlsson’s stick all alone out in front, and Anderson had no chance as Vegas took a 3-2 lead.

At that moment, the air in the Lenovo Center was taken right out of the fans’ sails, but a trusty veteran restored that later in the period. Jordan Staal, who watched his brother and 2006 Stanley Cup champion with the Hurricanes, Eric Staal, get the crowd going with the siren at puck drop, potted his third goal of these playoffs.

Jordan Staal snapped a wrister past Hart thanks to a heads-up play by K’Andre Miller to keep the puck onside and find his teammate fast for the grade-A chance.

The bleeding was stopped, but the third period was bound to be a thriller based on how these two teams were finding clear chances to score. Who broke the tie first was the major question, and Brett Howden had the answer just 1:21 into the period.

The playoff leader in goals, Howden had a beautiful tip on a shot by Theodore for his 11th of the playoffs and perhaps his most important in Game 1. The scoreboard remained silent for some time after that, with both teams trying to set up solid forechecks, but to no avail. The Hurricanes even had a power play, but they couldn’t find the back of the net.

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William Karlsson of the Vegas Golden Knights celebrates his goal with teammates during the second period of Game One of the Stanley Cup Final against the Carolina Hurricanes at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., on June 2, 2026. (Jeff Bottari/NHLI via Getty Images)

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Then, with 8:41 left, some puck luck found the Hurricanes, as defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere saw an offensive zone face-off biscuit fall right into his lap with no one around. He secured the puck on his stick blade and wristed it past Hart for the 4-4 tie.

However, the rollercoaster ride for the Hurricanes didn’t have a happy ending when they got off, with Hertl’s goal, assisted on a crafty Sissons’ pass following a face-off, being the final say in this one.

Game 2 of this series will be played once more in Raleigh on Thursday night at 8 p.m. ET.

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