Denver, CO
Renck: Michael Porter Jr. becoming problem for Nuggets’ championship hopes
The Porter quarter hasn’t been worth a buffalo nickel since the All-Star break.
The Nuggets remain concerning, exhilarating and frustrating, one night playing like a parade is in their future, and the next dissolving into an unserious contender.
They are in trouble – but not just for the reason we all know (their fickle interest in defense).
Michael Porter Jr. is becoming a problem, his slump impossible to ignore as the playoffs near. The Nuggets’ path to the Western Conference Finals is to turn games into Pop-A-Shot, winning in transition, leading in scoring.
There is no chance that happens with the way Porter is shooting.
Case in point: Monday night. Jamal Murray played himself to exhaustion, competing in a way not witnessed all season. He scored 28 points in 32 minutes, and the Bulls ran away with a 10-point victory.
The Nuggets needed another max player to fill the void with Nikola Jokic out and assert his will (you know, like Aaron Gordon has recently).
Porter became a whimper. He shot 1 for 10 from 3, scoring 16 points in 35 minutes.
Bad nights happen. Porter is having an awful month.
Since the All-Streak break, Porter was shooting 30.3% beyond the arc entering Wednesday night’s game against Milwaukee. In March, he sat at 28.8 %. Russell Westbrook is considered one of the worst volume long-range shooters in the league, and even he is making 33.9 % of his 3s this season.
“Michael is such an important piece. We have to find a way to get him back on track,” coach Michael Malone said before Wednesday night’s game against Milwaukee.
After stringing together the best three-game stretch of his career, Porter has not been the same since a hamstring issue surfaced on Feb. 8. He was hitting 3s at a 41.7 % clip at that point.
“It has been night and day,” Malone admitted. “For whatever reason, he just has not been able to knock down shots we have been so accustomed to seeing him make. Michael himself, his teammates, myself, all of us combined will continue to support him and find ways to get him going.”
It paid dividends in Wednesday’s first quarter as Porter drained his first four 3s. Perhaps this will return his confidence.
Christian Braun and Peyton Watson have picked up some of the slack, but recent history tells us what happens in the postseason when a sharpshooter becomes an Otterpop. The Lakers and Timberwolves barely guarded Gordon on the perimeter — he has improved dramatically this season — creating spacing issues and making it easier to throw bodies at Jokic.
There are Porter supporters who insist he will snap out of his funk, offering up his first-round performance against the Lakers last season (22.8 points per game on 48.8% from 3) as proof. The problem is what happened next: A dreadful second-round series against the Timberwolves in which he averaged 10.7 points and shot 32.5 % from 3.
And that’s the issue. Porter is wildly inconsistent from series to series, game to game, quarter to quarter.
He is a good player. But he leaves you wanting more because of his unique size and length. He deserves credit for overcoming major back problems and staying in the lineup, even if it has left him running on fumes and on Wednesday’s injury report with a sore back. But the Nuggets need valuable, not durable.
That is the context of his contract. If he was making mid-level exception money, his contributions would be embraced. The Nuggets frequently need him to be the third scoring option, making his variance maddening.
Therein lies an uncomfortable truth. This is who he is after seven years in the league. If he has not reached his ceiling, he can touch it from here. Porter can score 18 points a game and win on the boards, then inexplicably disappear, losing his shot, while fans lose their minds as he gets outmuscled on the boards.
He has improved as an on-ball defender, but not enough to overcome poor shooting nights. And how many max players receive less attention from their own coaching staff and the opposing defense in the final four minutes of the game?
Yes, the Nuggets won a championship with a streaky Porter. But the margins have narrowed over the past two years with the departures of Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
The Nuggets are not going to wake up in the postseason and start defending like the Bad Boy Pistons. The die has been cast. A rested Jokic will provide a bump. And Murray’s numbers since mid-December scream that he will become Playoff Jamal.
Those two are not the problem. And they are not the solution, either. They will perform at a high level, doing the best they can with what they have. But the Nuggets are not getting where they want to go with Porter struggling.
If he is not shooting well, he undermines his value. He is a minus-86 when on the floor in the season’s second half. If Porter’s past six weeks are any indication, the Nuggets are staring at a first-round exit if they match up with the Timberwolves.
It is easy to argue that MPJ never should have been given his contract in the first place, pointing to his injury history. The irony is that — in a testament to his hard work — he is healthy. But being in the lineup is not enough. Every time he goes arctic from 3, the Nuggets inch closer to their season being doomed.
The reality is simple, if not harsh. When it comes to Porter, the Nuggets consistently need better. They need way more than a quarter.
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The NBA Draft kicks off Tuesday night at the Barclays Center in New York.
The Nuggets, who own the 26th overall pick, are looking to improve a team that was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs for the first time since the 2021-22 season.
Here’s a look at who national draftniks are thinking will land in Denver.
The Athletic | Zach Harper | Updated June 23
Sergio de Larrea, guard, 6-6, Valencia
“It’s hard to say whether the Nuggets will have the roster flexibility to use this pick or if they kick it down the road by trading it. This team needs offensive creation outside of what Nikola Jokić does. Jamal Murray is more of a scorer than a creator, and they’ve been missing that guard off the bench to run some offense through. With de Larrea in the mix, they’ll have good size at the guard position and someone who can orchestrate more.” See the full mock draft.
Sports Illustrated | Kevin Sweeney | Updated June 23
Isaiah Evans, F, Duke
“Evans is a polarizing prospect after two years at Duke. At his best, he’s one of the most dynamic shooters in this draft, capable of getting his shot off with next-to-no separation and regularly going on streaks of multiple threes in short spurts. His overall impact on the game can be muted at times though, especially when threes aren’t falling. He’s a below-average athlete and mediocre defensively.” See the full mock draft.
Other picks:
- Second round, 49th overall pick: Aaron Nkrumah, G, Tennessee State
The Sporting News | Stephen Noh | Updated June 23
Isaiah Evans, F, Duke
“Denver has built a great offense without relying much on 3-pointers. What if they could take an even bigger step on that end of the floor?
“Evans could provide that extra oomph. He’s a good shooter who should be able to drill wide open looks while playing off Nikola Jokic. He has the size to defend capably. And he’s a decent athlete who can attack closeouts well.” See the full mock draft.
CBS Sports | Adam Finkelstein | Updated June 22
Ebuka Okorie, G, Stanford
“The Pistons, Grizzlies, and Wolves have done the most work on Okorie, but Denver has a real need for a paint touch point guard, especially as Nikola Jokic begins to age and they are forced to explore other ways of creating offense. Ejiofor has reportedly been to Denver as well. Veesaar would fit their system; Reed would be another potential backup five if he were available, and Isaiah Evans and Meleek Thomas could provide floor spacing.” See the full mock draft.
Yahoo Sports | Kevin O’Connor | Updated June 22
Ebuka Okorie, G, Stanford
“The Nuggets need some variety to their half-court offense aside from having Nikola Jokić initiate everything. Well, here’s a guy who could help. Okorie is the best driving guard in the class, a 6-1 jitterbug who manipulates defenders with a tight handle, sudden changes of speed, and an advanced feel for the game. He’s not an above-the-rim athlete, though, and not long ago he was a kid from New Hampshire who ranked outside the top 100 and committed to Harvard. Then Stanford found him, he flipped his commitment, and he proceeded to lead the ACC in scoring with eight 30-point games and a habit for hitting clutch shots. NBA teams will have to decide whether what carved up the ACC will survive against bigger, longer defenders.” See the full mock draft.
Other picks:
- Second round, 49th overall pick: Tobe Awaka, F, Arizona
CBS Sports | Gary Parrish | Updated June 23
Koa Peat, F, Arizona
“Peat impacts winning in a variety of ways and was among the reasons Arizona won the Big 12’s regular-season championship before advancing to the Final Four. Good size. Good body. Intriguing prospect. The issue is that he’s a 6-7 wing who doesn’t really shoot, evidence being that Peat only took 20 3-pointers in 36 games with the Wildcats. That’s not ideal for the modern-NBA and why Peat’s draft-range seems vast.” See the full mock draft.
SB Nation | Ricky O’Donnell | Updated June 23
Koa Peat, F, Arizona
No writeup available. See the full mock draft.
ESPN | Jeremy Woo | Updated June 23
Labaron Philon Jr., G, Alabama
“This would be quite a fall for Philon, who has interest in the late lottery from the Bucks if they opt for a guard at No. 13. But it seems likely that one of the point guards falls toward the back of the first round with the way the board has shaped up — particularly in this scenario, where the Pistons don’t take one.
“Philon’s range has seemed particularly wide of late, and teams have speculated that he could slip, with his recent workout for the Timberwolves (who have since traded out of the first round) raising some eyebrows.” See the full mock draft.
Other picks:
- Second round, 49th overall pick: Jaden Bradley, G, Arizona
Bleacher Report | Jonathan Wasserman | Updated June 22
Tarris Reed Jr., C, UConn
“Tarris Reed Jr. has been receiving strong reviews from workouts after putting together a rare statistical season, posting a 9.0 block percentage, 13.0 offensive rebounding percentage and 15.0 assist percentage.
“His combination of strength, paint touch, passing and rim protection should put him in first-round conversations for teams that want bigs.” See the full mock draft.
Other picks:
- Second round, 49th overall pick: Dillon Mitchell, F, St. John’s
USA Today | Bryan Kalbrosky | Updated June 23
Meleek Thomas, G, Arkansas
“The Denver Nuggets tend to look for players with a strong assist-to-usage ratio because they rely on high-efficiency passing and off-ball movement. Arkansas freshman Meleek Thomas averaged 16.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 43.2 percent on 3-pointers during his 21 games as a starter last season.
“He was efficient using off-ball screens and handoffs and occasionally showed some on-ball flashes as a pick-and-roll ball handler as well. He led the SEC in corner 3-pointers made (32) last season, per CBB Analytics, and his plus-four wingspan gives him solid length as a young guard who is still improving on both sides of the court. Thomas answered one of the biggest questions in college basketball when he decided to turn pro rather than return to the NCAA.” See the full mock draft.
Other picks:
- Second round, 49th overall pick: Dillon Mitchell, F, St. John’s
Want more Nuggets news? Sign up for the Nuggets Insider to get all our NBA analysis.
Home prices are falling in Denver and other areas around the nation.
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Scott Olson/Getty Images
A few weeks ago, we asked our readers for ideas and questions for future Planet Money newsletters and podcasts. We got a bunch of great submissions, including an intriguing one from Karl Baumgartner.
Baumgartner is a 29-year-old internal medicine resident in Denver, where home prices and rents have been falling. Depending on which data you look at, the Denver metro area is experiencing one of the steepest — if not the steepest — housing price declines in the nation. Home prices have fallen more than 2% year over year, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and even more if you adjust for inflation. Rents have fallen even more dramatically.
“As a renter myself, I am ecstatic about the falling prices,” Baumgartner writes. In fact, he just moved “to a bigger apartment with nicer amenities that I previously couldn’t afford, but now can because rent has fallen.” One of his friends, meanwhile, recently renegotiated her lease for about $500 less per month by showing her landlord that comparable apartments in her area were now going for much less.
“With almost all of my friends being in a similar position at the beginning of our careers with plenty of debt, we are all very excited about the decrease,” Baumgartner says.
So, yeah, falling rents are obviously a win for Denver renters. But Baumgartner is wondering about the broader economic picture.
“We know that negative inflation is bad for the economy in general, and we try to shoot for 2% annual inflation in general. What about negative inflation in the housing market specifically? Are there any downsides to falling prices, or is this just a sign of the market working as it should, with supply finally catching up to demand?”
It’s a great question because economics doesn’t seem to provide a simple answer on whether falling housing prices are good or bad for the economy.
Obviously, falling home prices and rents have downsides for homeowners and landlords. But what about the broader economy?
Sometimes falling housing costs could be a sign that the economy is healthy and the free market is working as economists might hope. Higher prices encourage builders to construct more housing. More supply comes online. Supply comes closer to or may even surpass demand, and housing prices go down. It’s the basic logic behind the YIMBY movement — a pro-housing development effort whose name stands for “Yes In My Backyard” — which argues that housing restrictions have prevented this healthy market process from delivering plentiful and more affordable housing.
Other times falling prices are a symptom of — and sometimes a big contributor to — a community’s economic distress.
So how can we tell the difference?
When falling home prices are bad
Let’s start with a clear bad scenario of falling home prices: Detroit. After years of deindustrialization and socioeconomic problems, Detroit saw a massive drop in population. Between 1990 and 2010 alone, Detroit lost nearly a third of its residents.
Home prices fell by more than 80% during the housing bust of the 2000s.
This wasn’t affordability created by abundance. It was affordability created by economic collapse.
Detroit neighborhoods emptied out and fell into disrepair. At one point, in 2007, houses in Detroit were cheaper than cars. For over a decade, the city has had an official program to demolish abandoned homes and buildings. For many Detroit families, generational wealth evaporated.
TO GO WITH AFP STORY by Joe Szczesny, US-city-Detroit-auto-debt
Curtains flap outside the broken window of an abandoned home December 31, 2014 in Detroit, Michigan. After the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history, Detroit hopes outsiders will see the city’s potential not the history of racial conflict, financial crises and citizen flight that has cut its population in half since 1960. AFP PHOTO/JOSHUA LOTT (Photo credit should read Joshua LOTT/AFP via Getty Images)
JOSHUA LOTT/AFP via Getty Images
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JOSHUA LOTT/AFP via Getty Images
Falling home prices can make homeowners feel poorer and cause them to spend less, a phenomenon economists call the wealth effect, says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin.
Eric Zwick, an economist at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, says the bigger danger from falling home prices comes from debt, as many of us painfully remember from the 2008 financial crisis. If home prices fall enough, many owners can end up “underwater” — owing more on their mortgages than their houses are actually worth.
It was a big contributor to the Great Recession. One reason the economic damage was so severe, Zwick says, was lax lending standards that preceded the crash. Many homeowners took on too much debt assuming prices would keep rising and when they didn’t, they were overstretched.
“ That created a kind of cascade of forced sales, further price declines, more people defaulting potentially, and then spillovers into the financial system, which then affected everybody,” Zwick says.
Wall Street amplified the problem by bundling risky mortgages into securities that spread losses throughout the financial system.
Because of the role that debt plays in the housing market, a big decline in home prices can hurt not just homeowners, but also “businesses that borrow and everybody else,” Zwick says.
Falling home prices can also hurt important economic sectors, like the construction industry. And they can be bad for a city’s tax revenue.
So, yes, falling home prices can have serious downsides, to answer our reader’s question.
When falling home prices are good
But falling housing prices may not always be bad. Just ask Denver renters!
The housing affordability problem has loomed especially large in cities with roaring economies and not much new development to accommodate growing demand to live there.
Economists have long worried that the lack of housing construction in these places has created a kind of economic traffic jam: when workers can’t afford to live where the best jobs are, they don’t move there, businesses struggle to hire, and the economy doesn’t grow as fast as it could.
The economists Chang-Tai Hsieh and Enrico Moretti published research in 2019, which estimated that “stringent housing restrictions” to build new housing in places like the San Francisco Bay Area prevented workers from moving to where they could be more productive. By their estimate, constraints on building new housing lowered U.S. economic growth by a staggering 36% between 1964 and 2009.
Zwick says subsequent research has found that Hsieh and Moretti overestimated the size of that effect on economic growth. Nonetheless, he says, the broader idea is persuasive: housing scarcity in productive areas slows economic growth.
Denver may be a good example. It’s been seeing solid economic growth and job creation, but as local housing advocate Kevin Matthews of Denver YIMBY sees it, the lack of affordable places to live in the city has been holding Denver’s economy back.
Matthews recalls a large Denver employer expressing concern about the lack of affordable housing. “Their business is growing really fast, and they are trying to attract workers,” Matthews says. “I think it has a big effect. If those workers can’t afford to live here, they’re gonna go elsewhere.”
And similar to how higher home values may encourage homeowners to spend and invest more, cheaper rents may encourage renters to spend and invest more.
“If I’m trying to steel man the case for why falling values can be good, it would be that you are freeing up people’s incomes to spend on other sources of investment in the economy,” says Misha Fisher, the chief economist of Zillow. “If people are spending 80% of their income on housing, that’s not leaving a lot left over to spend on other things.”
Cheaper housing could also nudge more people to make decisions that ultimately serve their community and the economy. For example, Zwick suggests cheaper housing might help encourage family formation. When people are less worried about the cost of an extra bedroom or finding enough space for a family, they may be willing to have more kids. Over the long run, that could mean more workers and more taxpayers, which can ultimately benefit the economy.
Researchers have also linked homeownership to higher rates of civic engagement, neighborhood investment, and other behaviors that can improve communities.
How can you tell when falling prices are good or bad?
So how can we tell when a decline in housing prices is good or bad? We talked to a bunch of economists, and we couldn’t find a simple rule, but we did cobble together some important things to consider.
First, why are prices falling? One potentially important distinction is whether the decline in prices is driven by an increase in supply or a decrease in demand. Put more simply: are prices falling primarily because fewer people want to live somewhere, or because more housing is being built?
Fisher, from Zillow, says demand-driven price declines are often a bad sign. “ That’s usually an indicator that something else has gone wrong,” he says. For example, that the economy is cratering, as was the case in Detroit, or that demand to live somewhere is falling for other reasons, like a rise in crime or natural catastrophes.
By contrast, if price declines are in response to an increase in housing supply, that’s “typically a healthier way to keep home prices in check,” Fisher says.
Fairweather, from Redfin, says land values can provide another important clue. “When a city’s economy is struggling and people are leaving, land typically becomes less valuable,” Fairweather says. “ So when Detroit was going through its recession, its downturn, the land value was dropping because Detroit overall as a city was becoming a less attractive place to live in, to do business in,” Fairweather says.
But imagine a different scenario. A city remains economically vibrant, demand to live there stays strong, but developers are allowed to build a ton of housing — including lots of big apartment buildings — to accommodate the growing demand to live there. In that case, land values might rise even as housing prices decline. Why? Because developers are squeezing more housing units onto each parcel of land.
“ You’re making better use of the land,” Fairweather says. “You’re getting the most economic value out of the land. That’s overall a good thing.”
Matthews, the representative from Denver YIMBY, suggested another metric to consider: the “price to income” ratio. This compares the typical cost of housing to the typical income that can be earned in an area. If the cost of housing is falling, but so are incomes in an area, that’s likely a bad sign. But if prices are falling while incomes are rising, that’s a good sign. It means the economy is doing well while housing is becoming more affordable.
Finally, the size and speed of the price decline matters. Most homeowners can handle small or gradual drops. But a sharp, sudden decline can trigger widespread economic distress, foreclosures, and unleash a cycle that can lead to a recession.
Several YIMBYs we’ve spoken to over the years have suggested the least economically disruptive path to housing affordability is for housing prices to fall in real terms, but not necessarily in nominal terms. That means that home values rise more slowly than wages and inflation, allowing housing to become more affordable without requiring a sharp drop in the sticker price of homes that can cause financial distress to homeowners.
We were curious what our sources thought about Denver’s falling housing prices. Many suggested that it’s been driven primarily by an increase in supply. The city has built a ton of new housing units, especially new apartments, in recent years. That is probably a good sign. Although some did mention the in-migration into Denver has slowed while out-migration has picked up steam, suggesting demand to live in Denver has also cooled.
The downtown Denver skyline is seen from the air.
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But none of our sources suggested what was happening in Denver is any cause for alarm. Most Denver homeowners have seen considerable growth in their home values in recent years, and all our sources agreed that the price fall isn’t dramatic enough to push many of them underwater. This is not a Detroit-style housing crash.
Plus, the fall in prices is providing financial relief to Denver renters, like our reader. Denver may represent something close to the version of falling housing costs that economists hope for: housing becoming more affordable without a broader economic downturn.
Congrats, Karl, on that nice, new apartment.
And for the rest of our readers: Have other questions you want us to answer? Send us an email: planetmoney@npr.org
Denver will use $3 million of its contingency fund money to help pay out settlements this year under an ordinance the City Council approved Monday.
The council makes a similar transfer every year, but the amount varies depending on the settlements reached, said Laura Swartz, the spokesperson for the city’s finance department.
“It is difficult to budget for settlements in advance because the amounts and timing can be unpredictable based on each case’s own scheduling, negotiations and court decisions,” Swartz said.
Every year, the city sets aside $2 million for settlements in the budget. Officials request a transfer from the contingency fund for anything needed above that amount. The 2026 transfer brings the amount that will be used to pay out settlements this year to $5 million so far.
This year’s allotment will leave the city with $30.5 million remaining in its contingency fund. The contingency fund is separate in the annual budget from the city’s reserves, which officials have been working to replenish from a recent low point.
The city has been ordered to pay millions of dollars in settlements in recent years related to the Denver Police Department’s actions during the George Floyd protests.
Earlier this month, the council approved about $2.87 million in payments for 13 people who alleged that local police violated their constitutional rights during the 2020 protests.
In April, a federal appeals court ruled that the city must also pay $14 million to another group of protesters, upholding a jury verdict. The city hasn’t yet said how it will pay out that amount.
“The city is contemplating the next steps first and expects to have more to share soon,” Swartz said.
The city has approved a total of $24.2 million for settlements related to the George Floyd protests, according to the City Attorney’s Office. That count doesn’t include the $14 million the appeals court ordered the city to pay in April.
“This is money that we could have used for any other purpose,” Councilwoman Shontel Lewis said during a council meeting. “It represents a missed opportunity.”
The council unanimously approved the contingency money transfer through its consent agenda.
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