Arizona is a swing state. So why is former President Donald Trump handily beating Vice President Kamala Harris in recent polls of Arizona voters? 

After decades as a perennial red state, consistently voting for Republicans, Arizona turned purple in 2018, electing Kyrsten Sinema as its first Democratic U.S. senator in 30 years. Then in 2020, the state elected Democrat Mark Kelly to the Senate and went for Joe Biden over Trump by just over 10,000 votes — the first time a majority of Arizonans voted for a Democrat for president since Bill Clinton in 1996 (Harry Truman was the last Democrat to win Arizona before Clinton, back in 1948). Most recently, in 2022, Democrats took the majority of statewide offices, including governor, secretary of state and attorney general. 

But a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll conducted this month showed the former president up by a full 6 percentage points (with a margin of error of 4 points). Is the state swinging back to deep red? Probably not, but it’s complicated.

Arizona’s Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters, dropping from 1.38 million in 2020 to 1.19 million in 2024. Republicans dropped, too, from 1.5 million to 1.45 million in 2024, but the much larger drop in Democratic voters is glaring, especially in a state now led by Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. 

Arizona’s unaffiliated voters have always been a large voting bloc, but that group is growing. In Maricopa County — the most populous county in the state and the fourth-largest in the country — Democrats voters fell from 814,000 to 692,000 in 2024. Biden won Republican-heavy Maricopa County in 2020, but Republicans’ voter advantage is much larger today.

Arizona is also missing strong statewide leadership despite having a Democratic governor. Hobbs is missing in action when it comes to the presidential and Senate races. She has not publicly appeared with Harris or her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — despite numerous Arizona visits. Other swing-state governors, like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Roy Cooper in North Carolina, are pulling out all the stops for the Democratic ticket, but Hobbs and her team are fumbling what should be a tactical advantage for Harris in Arizona.

Arizona has the fourth-largest Hispanic population in the country, making up one-third of the state’s population. Polls show Harris receiving much less support from this vital voting bloc than Biden did four years ago.

Border security and illegal immigration are top issues nationwide, but Arizona is the only swing state where they are truly front and center. The recent one-hour Senate debate between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake included no less than 30 minutes on immigration and border security issues. 

Arizona also has an initiative on the ballot this year that purports to give law enforcement expanded powers to arrest immigrants who entered the country illegally. The latest polls show that ballot initiative favored by about 60% of Arizonans. The Biden/Harris administration is seen by most Arizonans, including Democratic politicians, as failing Arizona border towns and counties that are often overwhelmed with asylum-seekers and those who crossed the border illegally. These issues are personal to many Arizonans.

Arizona has a strong MAGA contingent, including some of the most extreme members of Congress in Reps. Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Eli Crane. It is the home of the money-raising MAGA activist group Turning Point USA. And yet, despite this loud minority contingent, every Trump-endorsed Republican candidate for statewide office lost in 2022, while Republicans who did not go all in on Trump won their races for treasurer, superintendent of public instruction and Corporation Commission. Lake lost the governor’s race in 2020 (although she still calls herself Arizona’s rightful governor and has pending election lawsuits to this day) and is greatly underperforming Trump in her Senate race. 

That’s why all hope is not lost for Harris’ winning Arizona in 2024 — the state is truly purple. But she must overcome these significant headwinds if she wants to be only the fourth Democrat to win Arizona’s presidential vote in the last 76 years.