Arizona Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs leads Republican U.S. Congressman Andy Biggs by double digits in the state’s gubernatorial race, shows a new poll conducted by NextGen Polling, which identifies as “right of center.”

Newsweek reached out to Biggs’ campaign via email on Thursday for comment.

Why It Matters

As a pivotal battleground state, Arizona’s political trends can potentially foreshadow national outcomes, with shifting demographics and voter priorities influencing both parties’ strategies.

The results could possibly play a critical role in the broader national landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms.

What To Know

In the poll, Hobbs captures 51 percent of the potential vote compared to Biggs’ 32 percent, with 7 percent of respondents choosing “other” and 9 percent undecided.

The survey was taken from December 15 to December 17 among 2,725 likely voters, with a 1.9 percent margin of error, according to NextGen’s press release.

The poll also shows that Biggs has 64 percent of the Republican vote while Hobbs carries 90 percent of Democrats’ support. Sixty-two percent of independents back Hobbs while 19 percent favor Biggs.

Against Republican candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, Hobbs has 51 percent of the potential vote compared to Robson’s 30 percent.

What People Are Saying

Gregg Pekau, managing partner at NextGenP, in the poll: “This is a very telling, and honestly shocking, survey that far exceeds anything we’ve seen regarding the 2026 general election for Governor. This should be a wakeup call to Republicans that we must unify and connect with voters beyond our party to win the Governor race in 2026. The good news is that there remains significant time to engage independent voters and rebuild support within the party’s base.”

Biggs, on X earlier this month: “Under Katie Hobbs, our state has seen:

-Job growth plummet

-Energy and gas prices skyrocket

-A blatant disregard for public safety and keeping our border secure

If we want to grow and keep people here, Arizona needs a Governor with a vision, not vetoes.”

Hobbs, on X in October: “Arizona: I’m running for re-election. Your stories of hard work, hope, and determination inspire me to keep moving our state forward. I’m ready to serve you for 4 more years and always put your family first. Let’s get to work.”

What Happens Next

As both parties intensify their field efforts and campaign spending, Arizona is expected to remain at the center of national attention in the 2026 midterm cycle.

Early survey leads may shift as campaigns develop and voters gain more information. Both major parties are expected to closely monitor voter attitudes as Arizona’s political landscape continues to evolve in the run-up to the elections.

The California Department of Education is requiring the Tahoe Truckee Unified School District to follow state law in another clash over transgender athletes in youth sports in the state. 

Currently, student-athletes in Tahoe Truckee Unified play sports in Nevada because of how close they are. But Nevada now bans transgender athletes in girls’ sports, which is against California state law. 

So after decades of playing in Nevada, California’s Department of Education is requiring the Tahoe Truckee Unified School District to compete in California to comply with state laws that allow student athletes to compete based on their gender identity.

David Mack is the co-founder of Tahoe Pride and describes the new youth sports divide in the Tahoe region.

“So no one’s happy, it’s really sad, it’s quite tragic in that way,” Mack said. “People feel really upset that the school moved so fast on this. They feel blindsided, they feel not listened to, and then other people, like the trans kids, are getting steamrolled over like they’re not recognized in this argument.”

Nevada state lawmakers passed a law in April requiring a mandatory physical signed by a doctor to deem the athlete male or female based on their birth sex. 

“This is a politically manufactured issue to try to divide people,” Mack said. 

The Tahoe Truckee Unified School District is responding to the California Department of Education with a solution that the district legally join the California Interscholastic Federation in 2026, but continue to play in the Nevada Interscholastic Activities Association through 2028.

When asked if transgender athletes would be able to compete while operating in the NIAA, the district said it’s “still in the early stages of this transition, and many details are still being developed.”

In an October letter addressed to the California Department of Education, the school district’s attorney, Matthew Juhl-Darlington, said the Tahoe Truckee Unified is “not aware of any transgender youth who have expressed interest in participating in its 2025-2026 athletic programs.”

“While the NIAA recently updated its polices to define ‘male’ and ‘female’ based on sex assigned at birth and not as reflected in an individual’s gender identity, as required under California law, the District is interpreting and implementing this policy in a manner consistent with California’s legal requirements,” Juhl-Darlington said in the letter. 

California Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley is opposed to the state order, arguing the weather conditions in Tahoe need to be considered.

“So in order to compete in a California league, you have to deal with this snowy weather and the travel dangers and so forth,” Kiley said.

The school board was expected to explain its solution to both join California’s CIF while playing in the NIAA through 2028 to parents and students Wednesday night at a board meeting.

So far, the California Department of Education has not said if it will accept this as a solution.