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OPINION: Amid gas line hype, remember how many times Alaska has been down this road

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OPINION: Amid gas line hype, remember how many times Alaska has been down this road


Elected officials who say the proposed Alaska North Slope natural gas project is closer than ever to putting steel pipe in the ground and money in the pockets of construction workers should take a break from their political grandstanding and pay attention to the facts.

Not a single analyst tracking gas projects around the world ever mentions Alaska when they list developments with the best potential of getting built. They talk about liquefied natural gas export terminals going to construction along the U.S. Gulf Coast, in Qatar, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, Australia, even Russia, but not Alaska.

The state has spent close to $1 billion promoting multiple variations of a North Slope gas pipeline over the past 20 years, and has permits, rights of way, engineering work and studies in hand — but not one investor or partner or customer ready to sign a contract, write a check and take any risk. It’s all on the state treasury at the moment and has been for years, including several hundred million dollars for the state-led project to liquefy the gas for seaborne export to Asia.

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Just a few months ago, the Legislature and governor agreed to write an additional $5.5 million in checks on the state treasury to keep the dream alive another year.

And yet after spending all that money on plans, the state is offering to sell 75% ownership in the venture for a low $150 million so that it can pay to finish engineering and design work while shopping for investors and financing needed to build the project. Even at that discounted asking price, no one has signed a deal.

Meanwhile, the Alaska Gasline Development Corp., a state entity that has never built a pipeline or an LNG plant, says its 2020 cost estimate for the project has increased only about 10% in the past three years to near $44 billion. That would be a financial miracle compared to what is happening with similar LNG and pipeline projects in North America.

Bechtel, which has constructed multiple liquefaction plants around the world, recently added more than 20% to its three-year-old price quote for an LNG export project it will build in Texas.

The Coastal GasLink pipeline that will serve an LNG project under construction in Kitimat, British Columbia, is now pegged at almost $11 billion, more than double the original estimate of less than $5 billion five years ago. The pipeline is about half the distance of the proposed 807-mile Alaska project.

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The latest estimate for the delayed Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion project — adding 607 miles of new pipe from Alberta to the British Columbia coast — stands at $23 billion. The original estimate five years ago was under $3.5 billion.

Alaskans need to pay closer attention to the very real risk of cost overruns and the state’s improbable construction schedule that says the first tankers could leave the dock by 2031. Alaska also needs to consider declining world interest in burning fossil fuels.

For all those same reasons — plus the lack of any major oil or gas company partners — potential buyers in Asia are skeptical of the high-cost Alaska project, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal last week. In addition, “people are so unsure about the future of LNG,” Tatsuya Terazawa, head of the Institute of Energy Economics Japan, told the newspaper. “As of now they see huge demand, but what will happen 10 years or 15 years from now remains a question mark.”

Japanese officials told The Wall Street Journal that the further out a project’s timeline extends, the more it could conflict with the country’s commitment to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

LNG imports are in decline in Japan, down 20% from 2015, with a long-term decline projected in South Korea as buyers respond to higher prices, improved energy efficiencies and a shift to renewable energy. And yet the Alaska LNG project continues looking to Japan as its big customer.

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It’s time Alaskans acknowledged that the governor’s “we’ve never been closer to a gas line” slogan is 807 miles short of reality. It’s time to stop spending money that could be better spent elsewhere.

Larry Persily is a longtime Alaska journalist, with breaks for federal, state and municipal service in oil and gas, taxes and fiscal policy work. He lives in Anchorage and is publisher of the Wrangell Sentinel weekly newspaper.

The views expressed here are the writer’s and are not necessarily endorsed by the Anchorage Daily News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)adn.com. Send submissions shorter than 200 words to letters@adn.com or click here to submit via any web browser. Read our full guidelines for letters and commentaries here.





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Alaska

Trump’s Assault On Alaska's Wildlands

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Trump’s Assault On Alaska's Wildlands


Canning River, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Brooks Range, Alaska, where the Trump administration proposes oil drilling. Photo George Wuerthner.

One of the first Executive Orders from the Trump Whitehouse is to reverse environmental protections for federal lands in Alaska and hasten, expand, and encourage resource development.

Sec. 2.  Policy.  It is the policy of the United States to:

(a)  fully avail itself of Alaska’s vast lands and resources for the benefit of the Nation and the American citizens who call Alaska home;

(b)  efficiently and effectively maximize the development and production of the natural resources located on both Federal and State lands within Alaska;

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(c)  expedite the permitting and leasing of energy and natural resource projects in Alaska; and

(d)  prioritize the development of Alaska’s liquified natural gas (LNG) potential, including the sale and transportation of Alaskan LNG to other regions of the United States and allied nations within the Pacific region.

Prudhoe Bay oil development Alaska. Photo George Wuerthner

Trump appears eager to specifically negate all of President Biden’s conservation efforts in the state. It almost seems like a vendetta against Biden, as if he personally wants to wipe out any conservation efforts the former President enacted.

 

Logging on the Tongass National Forest, Alaska.

Trump’s order says: rescind, revoke, revise, amend, defer, or grant exemptions from any and all regulations, orders, guidance documents, policies, and any other similar agency actions that are inconsistent with the policy set forth in section 2 of this order, including but not limited to agency actions promulgated, issued, or adopted between January 20, 2021, and January 20, 2025;

 

Alaska pipeline TAPS near Delta Junction Alaska George Wuerthner

OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT

Trump’s executive order rescinds any cancellation of oil and gas leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Trump orders the federal agencies to issue all permits, right-of-way permits, and easements necessary for the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas from leases within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge;

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Musk ox on the coastal plain of the Arctic Wildlife Refuge in the area proposed for oil development. Photo George Wuerthner

However, Trump’s order goes well beyond the Arctic Refuge. He also wants to negate any protection for Coastal Plaine oil and gas leasing.

Cottongrass on the Coastal Plain near the Arctic Ocean where oil and gas leasing is proposed, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska. Photo George Wuerthner

Trump also wants to expand oil development on the National Petroleum Reserve and to eliminate any special protected areas within the reserve.

Many Alaskan natives support the oil development proposals and other resource extraction in the state.

ROADS THROUGH WILDLANDS

Narvik Lake at the headwaters of the Kobuk River near the proposed route of the Ambler Road. Photo George Wuerthner

AMBLER ROAD ACROSS SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE

Trump also ordered the BLM to approve the Ambler Road corridor, which the BLM under Biden had rejected. This road would travel from the pipeline haul road (Dalton Highway) across the southern edge of the Brooks Range to access large copper deposits owned by Native Corporations in the headwaters of the Kobuk River.

Arregetch Peaks, Gates of the Arctic National Park. The Ambler Road, if built, would cross a portion of the national park. Photo George Wuerthner

The proposed road would cross the Gates of the Arctic NP and a number of Wild and Scenic Rivers. If the road is constructed, many fear this new access will increase the economic viability of other lands for potential mining and potential oil development.

IZEMBEK NATIONAL WILDLIFE ROAD THROUGH WILDERNESS

King Cove, Alaskan Peninsula.

Trump orders that the proposed road across designated wilderness in the Izembek NWR be permitted to go forward. This road was opposed by the Obama and Clinton administrations, as well as Jimmy Carter who was President when the original Izembek Refuge was established.

The Izembek Refuge is located on the Alaskan Peninsula and is a critical migratory route for many waterfowl.

Native people in the village of King Cove desire land access to the Cold Bay airstrip, providing year-round air travel.

If permitted to stand, any Sec. of Interior could authorize a road through designated wilderness. A proposed gold mine by Cook Inlet Native Corporation in Lake Clark National Park would require road access that Trump’s Sec. of Interior could grant if the Izembek road is authorized.

This proposal negates the Wilderness Act and has much larger implications than this single road.

Black Brant, one of the many waterfowl species dependent on Izembek’s lagoons. Photo FWS

During the first Trump administration, the road proposal was approved, The Biden Administration under Sec of Interior Haaland also approved of the road, likely because Aleuts in King Cove also supported the road.

If the road is allowed to go forward across designated wilderness, then any Sec. of Interior could approve roads across any designated wilderness.

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HUNTING AND TRAPPING

To its credit, the Biden administration tried to alter the worse hunting and trapping behavior permitted in National Park Preserves. While hunting and trapping are permitted in national preserves, the Biden ban outlawed baiting bears, killing wolf pups in dens, and shooting swimming caribou that were crossing rivers.

The Biden Administration proposed a ban on killing wolf pups and bear baiting, among other restrictions on hunting and trapping in Alaska National Park Preserves. The Trump administration seeks to reverse that decision. Photo George Wuerthner

These restrictions were opposed by many Alaskans, including the Alaska Federal of Natives, who claimed such a ban interfered with their traditional subsistence activities.

Shooting caribou swimming in rivers will again be legal due to Trump’s Executive Order. Photo George Wuerthner

Trump directs the National Park Service to rescind these rules.

Another provision of the Executive Order directs federal agencies to make all federal lands where hunting and trapping occur consistent with state land rules.

Trump’s new rules permit hunting and trapping of wolves along the border of Denali National Park. Photo George Wuerthner

For instance, there has been legal debate over wolf trapping along the border of Denali National Park, with the NPS arguing that wolves should be protected while the state argues that wolf trapping is legal.

NAVIGABLE WATERWAYS

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Trump ordered that the control of waterways, even in nationally protected lands like national parks or on Wild and Scenic Rivers, be “restored” to state authority.

The mouth of the Nation River in the Yukon Charley National Preserve, where conflict over the use of a hovercraft for moose hunting, has led to a debate over whether the state or national park service controls waterways in national park units. Photo George Wuerthner

This issue stems from a lawsuit about who controls “submerged lands” across Alaska. It stems from a lawsuit filed in 2007 dealing with a hunter who used a hovercraft to hunt moose on the Nation River.

Placer mining pollutes North Fork Birch Creek Wild and Scenic River Steese Mountains National Conservation Area Alaska George Wuerthner

The NPS bans hovercraft in the National Preserve. The state argues that it should control uses on these lands, including mining, use of motorized access, and other related issues.

ROADLESS LANDS

The Trump Executive Order places a “temporary moratorium on all activities and privileges authorized by the final rule and record of decision entitled “Special Areas; Roadless Area Conservation; National Forest System Lands in Alaska.”

The carbon-rich old-growth forests of the Tongass NF AK will be opened for more logging under the Trump administration. Photo George Wuerthner

This would reverse a restriction on logging and roadbuilding in Alaskan roadless lands implemented by the Biden administration in 2023 and reinstate the rule opening up these lands to development enacted during the first Trump administration.

It primarily affects the Tongass and Chugach National Forests in Alaska, which hold substantial amounts of carbon in old-growth forests and where there are substantial roadless lands that would qualify for wilderness designation.

The roadless lands of the Tongass National Forest are under renewed threat from development. Photo George Wuerthner

The rest of the order has language exhorting federal agencies to avoid impeding or hindering any development in Alaska.

No doubt, lawsuits will be filed to stop or slow the implementation of these rules, and we can hope future administrations will recognize the value of Alaska’s wildlands.

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The Canning River in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge where new oil development may occur. Photo George Wuerthner

In some cases, economic considerations may thwart Trump’s agenda. For example, several oil lease sales were authorized on the coastal plain of the Arctic Wildlife Refuge in 2024, but there were no bids.

Mansfield Peninsula, Admiralty Island, Tongass NF, AK Photo George Wuerthner

The same is true for logging operations on the Tongass National Forest. Without federal subsidies, the cost of road construction is exorbitant, and the value of the timber doesn’t cover these costs.

Alaska’s wildlands are under assault from the Trump administration. Legal strategies can protect these lands from Trump’s vengeance. Alaska Range along Denali Highway, Alaska. Photo George Wuerthner

Nevertheless, I suspect Trump would argue expanding resource exploitation in Alaska is in the national interest, and if subsidies are necessary to implement resource extraction, his administration will find a way to fund it.



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As crackdown begins under Trump, Alaska advocates educate local immigrants on legal rights

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As crackdown begins under Trump, Alaska advocates educate local immigrants on legal rights


Anchorage attorneys and advocates are preparing local immigrants without citizenship for a Trump administration that, in its first few hours on Monday, pushed ahead sweeping actions on immigration.

Under former President Joe Biden, immigration surged to its highest in American history, averaging about 2 million people per year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. In an executive order on Monday, President Donald Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border to address what the order called a “catastrophic immigration crisis.”

“There’s a lot of fear,” said Anchorage immigration attorney Lara Nations. “Having information is powerful, and empowers people take control of their own life, and helps address some of the fear.”

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Local advocates say they have set out to meet what they say is a profound need among immigrant communities: the need for information.

In Alaska, about 8% of the state’s total population is foreign-born — close to 60,000 people, according to 2023 Census Bureau statistics. That population includes people with a wide range of statuses, including those who reside in the U.S. both lawfully and unlawfully. It includes: those who have become citizens through naturalization, green-card holders on a path to citizenship, a variety of visa holders, those with temporary protected status, refugees and asylees who have fled war or persecution in their home nations, and those without documentation, according to the Census Bureau.

Some of those immigrants may be vulnerable to deportation in an administration that’s proven unfriendly to them, said American Civil Liberties Union of Alaska executive director Mara Kimmel, referencing Haitian immigrants with legal status in Springfield, Ohio, who Trump has repeatedly called “illegal” and whose status he’s threatened to revoke.

But it’s hard to say exactly who will be at risk of deportation, or how many, she said.

That’s, in part, because it’s unclear which populations the Trump administration is prioritizing taking action against.

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Trump campaigned on the mass deportation of millions of unauthorized immigrants.

But many of the people without permanent status in the United States have permission to be here, said Nations.

That includes 2.5 million asylum-seekers awaiting their claims, hundreds of thousands of people granted humanitarian parole from countries like Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Ukraine and Afghanistan, and the half-million undocumented people brought to the U.S. as children who are protected under an Obama-era law, according to the Pew Research Center and National Immigration Forum.

Also, it’s not clear whether some of the new policies will survive the courts. On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order to end birthright citizenship in a move that’s already been challenged in federal court, then blocked by a federal judge on Thursday. In a statement this week, Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor said he didn’t have a position on whether Alaska may defend or oppose the order, but said that “it is important to address the crisis at the border and stem the tide of illegal immigration.”

“The truth is, we just don’t know (what will happen),” Kimmel said of immigration under the new presidency. “And so my big message in all of this is, if people are prepared and know their rights, that’s their best defense.”

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Since December, the ACLU of Alaska has provided advice and information at two information sessions aimed at different populations in the state. In December, the group was invited to present on knowing your rights as a non-citizen for a Pacific Islander audience at an Anchorage gathering. Last week, Kimmel and her staff gave the same presentation to a different group in Anchorage, in partnership with Spanish-speaking immigration attorneys Lara Nation and Nicolás Olano of Nations Law Group to the Latino community.

The idea was to give noncitizens practical advice about how to interact with local police and immigration police, should enforcement crackdowns become more commonplace, said Olano, a U.S. citizen who immigrated from Colombia in 1999.

Attorneys advised attendees on how to respond to escalating scenarios, ranging from routine traffic stops, to an immigration police officer showing up at your door or place of work, to an arrest. ACLU recorded the event and plans to send to Latino communities throughout the state.

The purpose is to help people “realize how immigration police (can) approach them, on a practical level, without making it so abstract,” Olano said. “Like, ‘hey, (they could) show up at your house. They (could) stop you when you’re leaving your house, so they avoid the issues of needing a warrant to get in there.’ I think that we gave practical tools to people to know what to expect, and also how to protect their rights.”

If noncitizens can take one piece of advice on exercising their civil rights, Olano said, it’s this:

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“Just be quiet and ask for a lawyer,” he said.

Nations advises undocumented or under-documented people contact an immigration attorney to get “accurate immigration advice … about their specific situation.”

The U.S. Constitution affords noncitizens, including undocumented immigrants, virtually the same rights as citizens, Olano said. That includes the right to due process, the right to remain silent, and the right to be free from unreasonable search and seizure, according to the ACLU.

State police cannot ask a person for their immigration status in Alaska, but the same is not true for federal agents such as Customs and Border Protection at an airport or a border crossing, or Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers.

“That doesn’t mean that you have to answer them,” Olano said. “They can ask you…and you can say, ‘I’m not talking without a lawyer.’”

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In all scenarios, attorneys advise people dealing with any law enforcement officer or federal agent to remain calm and polite, and not to run away, lie, or give false documents.

They are also suggesting that families make emergency plans for themselves, and particularly their children, in the event a parent is detained, arrested, or deported.

A longtime advocate for the Latino community, Lina Mariscol, stressed the importance of emergency plans in that situation, including child care and power of attorney for children.

“Better safe than sorry,” said Mariscol, who immigrated from Mexico in 1983, and served as the honorary consulate of Mexico in Anchorage from 2000 through 2007 (the Mexican consulate in Anchorage closed in 2015). “It’s kind of like an advance directive. If you need it right now, it’s already too late.”

In an emailed statement this week, Alaska Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan said he supported the president’s declaration of a national emergency at the southern border, and emphasized a need for legal migration.

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Fellow Alaska Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski in a Thursday interview said that while some of Trump’s new orders are “sending out a message…a very clear message, about where they wish to head on certain policies…the details of implementation of them are not clearly articulated.” In regards to birthright citizenship, Murkowski said the 14th amendment has “a long history, decades and decades, where that has been respected.”

Alaska Republican U.S. Rep. Nick Begich did not respond to requests for comment.

• • •





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Weather, avalanche mitigation impacts roads across Alaska

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Weather, avalanche mitigation impacts roads across Alaska


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – Weather conditions impacted roads all across the state Saturday.

According to Alaska 511, some of the areas most difficult to drive in are around Cantwell, in the Fairbanks area, and North into the Dalton and Elliott highways.

Roads in Anchorage were wet and full of puddles.

And part of Hatcher Pass Road was closed Saturday.

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The Department of Transportation (DOT) said online that Hatcher Pass Road is now closed just north of the Skeetawk entrance. That’s around mile 10.8.

DOT said there was an avalanche Friday that crossed the road around mile 15. DOT plans to assess the road closure daily.

People could still get to Skeetawk Saturday, but the ski area posted online that it was closed because of the weather.

And Sunday, drivers along the Seward Highway can expect delays while DOT works on avalanche mitigation work in two sections.

One stretch will be from milepost 37 to milepost 38 from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. Sunday. That’s near the Seward Highway and Sterling Highway wye.

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The other area is from milepost 95 to 100 from 9:00 a.m. to noon Sunday. That’s between Girdwood and Anchorage.

See a spelling or grammar error? Report it to web@ktuu.com



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