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College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

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College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

We are about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there has been no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams projected to make the College Football Playoff by my model in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also fallen by the wayside. All of that in just four weeks.

When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams that were trending up were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance to make the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is hanging on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seed since two weeks ago (up one spot each), while USC dropped one spot.

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On the other end, the three teams I wrote about who were trending down were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since two weeks ago after a crushing home defeat to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s Playoff odds have risen only 5 percentage points to 37 percent.

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As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just earned a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.

Stock up

Penn State

The Nittany Lions’ Playoff odds have gone up 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has gone up 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has taken some bumps and bruises but still should be a top-20 unit. The major improvement has been the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive success rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the Kent State game might be propping up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat up on a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.

The other thing that works out nicely for Penn State is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but outside of that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as daunting as they did at the start of the season.

My model has Penn State winning 10-plus games in 72 percent of simulations, which should get it into the Playoff.

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Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)

Boise State

Boise State was a couple of bounces away from taking down Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ Playoff odds have increased by 13 percentage points, all the way up to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now, I must say that the Group of 5 projection could be a little wonky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) lost in the past two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game in which it’s favored by around a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.

Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that go 20-plus yards. Even if defenses stack the box, Jeanty can burn you. If there was a Heisman Trophy given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.

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Stock down

Michigan

Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it passed for only 32 yards and won through big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a hard recipe to sustain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines appear to be just a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of the past few years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.

Michigan still has Oregon at home as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff last week, and that number increased to just 5 percent after the USC win. Such a slight increase paints the picture of the long-term concerns.

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It’s possible Orji allows the Wolverines’ run game to be more explosive than it was the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings seems to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And running the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with a great defense has been successful in past years of the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe to become a Playoff team. With a loss already on the schedule and the tricky slate still ahead, I have had time seeing Michigan getting to double-digit wins.

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LSU

I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. To this point, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to begin the year and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.

My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has fallen to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home going into halftime isn’t going to give my model any confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Yes, of course. I’m actually bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the strides necessary on defense to become a Playoff contender.

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LSU star LB Harold Perkins out for season with torn ACL: Source

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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

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CM Punk to defend Undisputed WWE Championship against Cody Rhodes at SummerSlam

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CM Punk to defend Undisputed WWE Championship against Cody Rhodes at SummerSlam

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CM Punk appeared on “Friday Night SmackDown” ready to take on any challenger that was ready to step to him after winning the Undisputed WWE Championship against Sami Zayn.

Punk entered the ring in Oklahoma City and called back to the “Monday Night Raw” after WrestleMania 42 when he told Cody Rhodes he’d be ready to deliver if a championship opportunity fell “out of the sky.”

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Cody Rhodes and CM Punk face off during SmackDown at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla. (Craig Ambrosio/WWE via Getty Images)

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“When championship opportunities fall out of the sky, CM Punk catches them,” he said.

Punk named potential SmackDown superstars he’d think might come for the title, including Gunther, Finn Balor, Royce Keys, Damian Priest and Trick Williams. He even said that Zayn could come back around and get his rematch if he wanted. He didn’t mention Rhodes’ name, but the “American Nightmare” came out uncalled and marched his way down to the ring.

“I don’t think you and I can run away from each other anymore,” Punk told Rhodes.

Cody Rhodes looks on during SmackDown at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., on July 10, 2026. (Craig Ambrosio/WWE via Getty Images)

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Rhodes agreed and mentioned that Punk would want a match with him, just “say when.” It was a quick retort from Punk, who said, “when.” SmackDown general manager Nick Aldis, who was in the ring for the segment, booked the match for SummerSlam.

Punk will defend the Undisputed WWE Championship at SummerSlam, which takes place Aug. 1 and 2 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

First, however, Punk and Rhodes will be involved in a tag team match at Saturday Night’s Main Event in New York City next week. Aldis made the match after Gunther demanded that Aldis put him in a match against Punk. Gunther was hoping it would be for the championship. Instead, Gunther will tag with Zayn.

Gunther didn’t take too kindly to that and attacked Aldis. Rhodes came back out to break up the calamity. He wanted to take on Gunther after the show went off air but Gunther walked away.

Gunther makes his entrance during SmackDown at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., on July 10, 2026. (Rich Wade/WWE via Getty Images)

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Punk definitely has his hands full as he moves to SmackDown to become a fighting champion.

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World Cup fans flock to In-N-Out, Erewhon and Trader Joe’s for a taste of California

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World Cup fans flock to In-N-Out, Erewhon and Trader Joe’s for a taste of California

World Cup tourists are coming to L.A. for the soccer, but they’re staying for the $21 smoothies and Double-Doubles.

As the last Los Angeles FIFA World Cup event ended Friday, soccer fans were eating like locals and famous chains from the region were cashing in.

In the weeks that L.A. has hosted the World Cup, international soccer enthusiasts have flocked to big brands from the area, often in large groups wearing their countries’ jerseys.

It is a phenomenon seen at many of the host cities. In Dallas, giant gas station Buc-ee’s is the main attraction. For people visiting New Jersey, deli shops have been a hot ticket. In L.A., the place to be between matches was Erewhon.

Thirsty international sports fans gathered for pictures outside different Erewhons, wandered their aisles smiling, and, of course, picked up pricey smoothies.

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While Erewhon would not comment on its business, mobility data company Arity, which uses phone data to track consumers, said Erewhon visits at the outlets around SoFi Stadium were quadruple what they were a week earlier on June 12, the day of the U.S. national soccer team’s opening match there.

Arity looked at what stores people visited within a 10-mile radius of SoFi that day and also found surges in visitors to nearby El Pollo Loco and Trader Joe’s.

Locals have spotted groups of people in Korea jerseys huddled together, trying to decide what to order at In-N-Out.

Some complained on social media that international tourists at Trader Joe’s were buying up all the mini canvas tote bags.

Soon after the Belgium vs. Spain quarterfinal ended Friday, the In-N-Out near SoFi had a long line of soccer fans stretching out the door in bright red and yellow and black jerseys and matching striped hats and scarves.

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One of the workers said he had to explain “spread” and “animal style” to foreign football fans.

“I didn’t know this place existed,” a fan from Romania said while waiting in line.

Los Angeles and other cities and states that have hosted the event need the soccer fans to spend money to make the event worth all the time, effort and money it requires.

A rosy 2024 report projected the World Cup could bring more than $800 million to the L.A. region as 180,000 people converge on the area to sleep, eat and spend.

There were early concerns people weren’t turning up for the event because of the high ticket prices and the difficulty of obtaining visas for citizens of some countries.

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However, at least for some L.A. hotels, there was a surge of last-minute visitors which pushed up occupancy and room rates.

While sports fans are not in the region to shop, they do make time for it.

World Cup customer spending is also apparent in beer sales. Andrew Heritage, the chief economist at the Beer Institute said beer purchases at entertainment and attractions in L.A. – outside of World Cup spaces – were up around 10% from normal.

“That tells me that fans in the L.A. area have decided to extend their stay and take in all the other things that the area has to offer, rather than just the match itself,” he said.

On social media, the purpose of these shoppers is clear: grab a quick souvenir or local specialty and take a selfie.

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The data from Arity suggests that fans are very efficient when they spend at local spots, diving in, getting what they want and getting out as soon as possible, said Jeff Schlitt, a director at the company.

“Normally you’re there for an hour. They’re going to be there for 15, 18 minutes,” he said. “Why is that? Because they were purpose-driven shoppers.”

For some travelers, the more popular American chains aren’t unfamiliar. But some of the native L.A. fare still comes as a surprise.

As one Belgium-Spain matchgoer from the Netherlands stood taking a picture of the In-N-Out sign after the game, he said he’d never had a burger like the one he’d just tried.

“We only have McDonald’s and Burger King,” he said. “It’s way better.”

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Shohei Ohtani ruled out of MLB All-Star Game as Dodgers plan to manage nagging injury

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Shohei Ohtani ruled out of MLB All-Star Game as Dodgers plan to manage nagging injury

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The face of baseball will not be at Tuesday’s All-Star Game.

Shohei Ohtani was scratched from his start on Friday as the Los Angeles Dodgers said he will also miss the Midsummer Classic with what the team called left knee irritation.

Ohtani, for obvious reasons, has become an All-Star Game fixture. He has earned the honor in each of the past five seasons and made his first start in 2021.

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Starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers warms up before the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on June 03, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The two-way phenom is on his way to winning his fifth MVP award in his last six seasons as he is hitting .290 with a .939 OPS and pitching to a minuscule 1.79 ERA, the second-lowest in the sport among pitchers with 80-plus innings. His OPS is also the seventh-best mark in the league.

The Dodgers said Ohtani will be the team’s designated hitter up until the break, but he will “have some interventions on his knee to put him in the best position for the second half of the season.”

Ohtani dealt with knee issues earlier in the season.

It is certainly a big hit for the game as the other face of the sport, Aaron Judge, will miss the game due to a fractured rib that has kept him out since late May.

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Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gets ready in the on deck circle against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on June 01, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) (Norm Hall/Getty Images)

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Ohtani hit 99 home runs combined in 2024 and 2025, leading the National League with a 1.025 OPS in that span. Ohtani did not pitch in 2024 after elbow surgery but returned to the bump last year and owned a 2.87 ERA and 11.9 K/9, a figure he also put up in 2022 that led the American League.

The “Japanese Babe Ruth” is the only player in MLB history to have 300-plus plate appearances and 40-plus innings in six separate seasons (Ruth only did it twice and never stole 50 bases), and he has more than excelled at both.

Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Los Angeles Dodgers against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on May 13, 2026. (Gary A. Vasquez/Imagn Images)

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Ohtani is not hitting like he has in the past, but certainly the best pitching performance of his career will make up for it. He “only” has 20 homers and 56 RBI this season.

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