Sports
College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling
We are about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there has been no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams projected to make the College Football Playoff by my model in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also fallen by the wayside. All of that in just four weeks.
When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams that were trending up were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance to make the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is hanging on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seed since two weeks ago (up one spot each), while USC dropped one spot.
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On the other end, the three teams I wrote about who were trending down were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since two weeks ago after a crushing home defeat to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s Playoff odds have risen only 5 percentage points to 37 percent.
As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just earned a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.
Stock up
Penn State
The Nittany Lions’ Playoff odds have gone up 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has gone up 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has taken some bumps and bruises but still should be a top-20 unit. The major improvement has been the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive success rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the Kent State game might be propping up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat up on a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.
The other thing that works out nicely for Penn State is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but outside of that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as daunting as they did at the start of the season.
My model has Penn State winning 10-plus games in 72 percent of simulations, which should get it into the Playoff.
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Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)
Boise State
Boise State was a couple of bounces away from taking down Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ Playoff odds have increased by 13 percentage points, all the way up to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now, I must say that the Group of 5 projection could be a little wonky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) lost in the past two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game in which it’s favored by around a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.
Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that go 20-plus yards. Even if defenses stack the box, Jeanty can burn you. If there was a Heisman Trophy given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.
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Stock down
Michigan
Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it passed for only 32 yards and won through big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a hard recipe to sustain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines appear to be just a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of the past few years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.
Michigan still has Oregon at home as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff last week, and that number increased to just 5 percent after the USC win. Such a slight increase paints the picture of the long-term concerns.
It’s possible Orji allows the Wolverines’ run game to be more explosive than it was the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings seems to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And running the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with a great defense has been successful in past years of the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe to become a Playoff team. With a loss already on the schedule and the tricky slate still ahead, I have had time seeing Michigan getting to double-digit wins.
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LSU
I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. To this point, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to begin the year and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.
My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has fallen to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home going into halftime isn’t going to give my model any confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Yes, of course. I’m actually bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the strides necessary on defense to become a Playoff contender.
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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Sports
Roman Reigns domesticates Jacob Fatu to retain World Heavyweight Championship at WWE Clash in Italy
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Roman Reigns has been called the “Head of the Table” for a reason.
He was an undisputed WWE champion for years and leader of The Bloodline before he made his way back to the top of the company at WrestleMania 42, defeating CM Punk for the World Heavyweight Championship.
Since the win, Jacob Fatu has been the biggest thorn in his side. Fatu made clear he wanted everything that Reigns had. Reigns’ win over Fatu at Backlash earlier this month wasn’t enough. He challenged Reigns to Tribal Combat at Clash in Italy – a match meant to put Reigns’ title of “Tribal Chief” on the line.
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Roman Reigns delivers a spear to Jacob Fatu during Clash in Italy at Inalpi Arena in Torino di Sangro, Italy, on May 31, 2026. (Andrew Timms/WWE)
Reigns had already dispatched challengers to his place in his family when it came to Tribal Combat. Jey Uso and Solo Sikoa both tried and failed over the years. Reigns was trying to make sure that Fatu would never challenge him again in an effort to “domesticate” him. One of the strategies was to eliminate Fatu’s use of the Tongan Death Grip – a move that Fatu has pulled out over and over again.
Reigns used a toolbox to crush Fatu’s hand and, for a moment, keep the use of the Tongan Death Grip at bay. It would take way more than that to keep Fatu down. Reigns knew he needed to dig deep. He speared Fatu through a barricade, trampling security members in the process.
Jacob Fatu prepares for his match during Clash in Italy at Inalpi Arena in Torino di Sangro, Italy, on May 31, 2026. (Rich Freeda/WWE)
He walked around the ring yelling that he didn’t need anyone’s help as he took off the turnbuckles. Fatu tried to hit another Tongan Death Grip but couldn’t synch it in. Reigns countered with a Superman Punch, but Fatu ate all of them. Reigns tried for a spear, but Fatu hit it on Reigns first.
Fatu hit a pop-up Samona Drop and then a moonsault. Still, he couldn’t pin Reigns. On the second pin attempt, Reigns hit a low blow on Fatu. The two men, leaving it all on the line, were gassed in the middle of the ring.
Reigns got up and smashed Fatu’s head on the exposed turnbuckle. Fatu was dazed and Reigns speared him through the table. Fatu got back up and Reigns hit one more spear. It was the last one he needed.
Reigns defeated Fatu, keeping the World Heavyweight Championship and remaining the Head of the Table.
Roman Reigns celebrates his win during Clash in Italy at Inalpi Arena in Torino di Sangro, Italy, on May 31, 2026. (Andrew Timms/WWE)
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Fatu must now fall in line behind Reigns and The Usos. However, Solo Sikoa, Talla Tonga and Tama Tonga were also looking on to see Fatu’s loss.
Sports
Yoshinobu Yamamoto helps Dodgers deliver a birthday win for Dave Roberts
Not a cake or a ribbon-wrapped present, but the Dodgers celebrated manager Dave Roberts’ 54th birthday with a 9-1 win over the Phillies on Sunday. The Dodgers ended their homestand with a 5-1 record despite their six-game winning streak ending the night before.
“I like the prospects of winning a baseball game,” Roberts said about what he wanted for his birthday. “It seems like we always play on my birthday. It’s just like any other day. Just kind of a little bit of gratitude, obviously.”
Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto (4-5) held the Phillies hitless over the first three innings thanks, in part, to the defense.
Phillies left fielder Brandon Marsh tried to steal second in the second inning, but he took off too early. Yamamoto swung around and tossed the ball to Alex Freeland, who nabbed Marsh’s hands.
Yamamoto, much like Roki Sasaki the night before, threw his pitches faster than normal. But the elevated velocity didn’t seem to affect his performance. Despite throwing his four-seam fastball 1 mph faster than usual, the pitch resulted in a strike 76% of the time.
Philadelphia’s Trea Turner and Alex Bohm each snagged singles in the fourth inning, but little came to fruition. When Roberts pulled Yamamoto in the sixth, he had blanked his opponents with 10 strikeouts, four hits and two walks.
“Having a guy like Yoshinobu take the ball, it just gives you that extra confidence,” Roberts said. “You’re trying to win a series against a good team in the midst of 10 in a row. There’s just a lot of dependability with him.”
Yet no one — not the Phillies (30-29) nor the Dodgers (38-21) — had a harder game at the plate than home plate umpire Sean Barber, who had nine ABS challenges, three of which were upheld.
The Dodgers tallied 13 hits against the Phillies, and the runs followed close behind. In the second, Alex Freeland’s RBI double bounced off the center-field wall. As Philadelphia’s Justin Crawford rushed to track it down, Max Muncy sprinted around third and slid into home plate, avoiding the tag by catcher J.T. Realmuto.
Realmuto left in the bottom of the fourth inning with a left wrist contusion from a pitch that had hit him earlier in the game. He will undergo further testing, according to the team.
Kyle Tucker took a step toward overcoming his recent struggles with a third-inning RBI single down the first-base line. The ball skidded against the dirt and deflected off the base over Bryce Harper’s head. Freddie Freeman scored.
Ryan Ward receives a sunflower seed shower from teammate Andy Pages after hitting a home run for the Dodgers on Sunday.
(Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times)
Tucker was one for 17 at Dodger Stadium before he finally connected a hit off Phillies pitcher Andrew Painter (1-6).
“I think that speaks to not being selective enough, because he is a guy that by nature can run deep counts and still be fine getting to two strikes, but it just seems like he’s much more hyperaggressive than I recall,” Roberts said before the game. “That’s just what my eyes see. But, yeah, he’s working hard to try to work through it.”
From there, the Dodgers kept scoring.
Ryan Ward and Freeland each homered to right field. It was Ward’s first home run in his first game at Dodger Stadium. Alex Call, who pinch-hit for Ward in the fifth, also drove in two runs with an RBI single to shallow center left field.
Andy Pages scored in the sixth inning on a Freeman sacrifice fly, and Max Muncy hit a seventh-inning home run.
Bryson Stott finally put the Phillies on the board with a home run in the ninth. By then, though, the Dodgers had already wrapped the bow on Roberts’ birthday gift.
Dodgers activate Jack Dreyer
The Dodgers activated left-handed reliever Jack Dreyer from the injured list and, in a corresponding move, optioned Paul Gervase to triple-A Oklahoma City.
Dreyer had been one of the Dodgers’ most consistent relievers before he missed 13 games with left shoulder inflammation. In 20 appearances, he held a 2.08 ERA with five earned runs and 24 strikeouts.
“Really excited to be back, obviously to do what I can to help the team,” Dreyer said. “Feeling great, so just ready to go whenever my number is called.”
Blake Snell, recovering from surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow, is throwing plyo balls but is not on a throwing progression yet like closer Edwin Díaz.
Sports
Super Bowl champion Joe Theismann explains why Commanders are poised to bounce back from disappointing season
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Super Bowl champion Joe Theismann, who spent his entire career with the then-Washington Redskins, is excited for the Commanders this season despite an underwhelming season last year.
Last season, the Commanders went 5-12 after making the NFC Championship in 2024. Theismann, 76, said the team ran out of gas last season as they dealt with injuries.
“It was a lot of injuries in key places last year. The defense, I think, was very susceptible in certain areas,” Theismann told Fox News Digital in a recent interview. “With Bobby (Wagner) getting older now, obviously, we just sort of ran out of gas. 17 games is a lot of football games, right? I mean, that that’s a lot of wear and tear on your body. I don’t care how young you think you are, your body’s going to tell you you’re not that young.”
Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders looks on from the sidelines after leaving the game during the second half against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn., on Dec. 7, 2025. (Ellen Schmidt/Getty Images)
The Commanders defense struggled last season, giving up 26.5 points per game, which was 27th in the NFL. The team addressed their porous defense in the NFL Draft, drafting Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles with the No. 7 overall pick.
“Our number one pick is going to be something special going forward,” Theismann said. “I think we added some really great pieces on defense.”
The Commanders invested heavily in their defense. Former Los Angeles Chargers pass rusher Odafe Oweh (four-year, $100 million), former Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal (three-year, $24.75 million), and former Houston Texans defensive tackle Tim Settle (three-year, $24 million) were among their key free agent additions.
Star wide receiver Terry McLaurin missed the majority of the Commanders’ offseason program due to a contract holdout, and Theismann pointed out he will be an active participant in this year’s program.
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Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Sonny Styles gets into position during the 2025 Cotton Bowl quarterfinal game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Dec. 31, 2025. (Jerome Miron/Imagn Images)
The Commanders made a change at offensive coordinator after mutually agreeing to part ways with Kliff Kingsbury. The Commanders promoted David Blough to replace Kingsbury, and Theismann noted how the offense will be called differently.
“I think David Blough will call the games a little differently than Kliff did. A Little more play action, a little more under center. And this is what Jayden (Daniels) had a chance to work on while he was not participating in the games at the end of the season. So, he’s a little bit ahead of the curve when it comes to that as well,” Theismann said.
Daniels was limited to just seven games due to injury last season, giving him the opportunity to get a head start on a new system late in the season.
Theismann did note that while the Commanders got better, the rest of the NFC East got better as well.
“The division itself has improved. The Giants got better. I think the coaching change makes a difference. Jaxson Dart is coming into another year. Defensively, they really didn’t play to the talent that they have,” Theismann said. “The Cowboys added defensive talent. They needed some help there. The Eagles are the Eagles; they’re not going away. I mean, everybody is trying to bust on Jalen (Hurts) and all he does is show up and do the job and win football games.”
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Former player Joe Theismann speaks during the announcement of the Washington Football Team’s name change to the Washington Commanders at FedExField in Landover, Md., on Feb. 2, 2022. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Theismann played in the NFL for 12 seasons, spending his whole career with the then-Washington Redskins. He was named the league MVP in 1983 and made the Pro Bowl twice.
He led the Redskins to the Super Bowl in 1982, when they beat the Miami Dolphins 27-17 in Super Bowl XVII. In his career, Theismann completed 56.7% of his passes for 25,206 yards with 160 touchdowns and 138 interceptions.
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Theismann will be competing in the American Century Championship from July 10-12 at Edgewood Golf Course in Lake Tahoe. The tournament will be broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
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