Sports
College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling
We are about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there has been no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams projected to make the College Football Playoff by my model in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also fallen by the wayside. All of that in just four weeks.
When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams that were trending up were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance to make the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is hanging on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seed since two weeks ago (up one spot each), while USC dropped one spot.
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On the other end, the three teams I wrote about who were trending down were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since two weeks ago after a crushing home defeat to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s Playoff odds have risen only 5 percentage points to 37 percent.
As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just earned a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.
Stock up
Penn State
The Nittany Lions’ Playoff odds have gone up 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has gone up 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has taken some bumps and bruises but still should be a top-20 unit. The major improvement has been the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive success rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the Kent State game might be propping up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat up on a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.
The other thing that works out nicely for Penn State is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but outside of that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as daunting as they did at the start of the season.
My model has Penn State winning 10-plus games in 72 percent of simulations, which should get it into the Playoff.
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What I think I know about Penn State as Big Ten play starts
Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)
Boise State
Boise State was a couple of bounces away from taking down Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ Playoff odds have increased by 13 percentage points, all the way up to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now, I must say that the Group of 5 projection could be a little wonky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) lost in the past two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game in which it’s favored by around a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.
Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that go 20-plus yards. Even if defenses stack the box, Jeanty can burn you. If there was a Heisman Trophy given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.
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Stock down
Michigan
Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it passed for only 32 yards and won through big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a hard recipe to sustain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines appear to be just a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of the past few years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.
Michigan still has Oregon at home as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff last week, and that number increased to just 5 percent after the USC win. Such a slight increase paints the picture of the long-term concerns.
It’s possible Orji allows the Wolverines’ run game to be more explosive than it was the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings seems to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And running the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with a great defense has been successful in past years of the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe to become a Playoff team. With a loss already on the schedule and the tricky slate still ahead, I have had time seeing Michigan getting to double-digit wins.
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LSU
I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. To this point, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to begin the year and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.
My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has fallen to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home going into halftime isn’t going to give my model any confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Yes, of course. I’m actually bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the strides necessary on defense to become a Playoff contender.
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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Sports
Jazz Chisholm explains why he still won’t wear a cup after fouling a pitch into his own groin
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Men around the country are still wincing from the sight of New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. fouling a pitch straight into his own groin.
It was bad enough that Chisholm had to leave the game, and it left many wondering why he wasn’t wearing a cup to protect himself.
Well, now we have an answer.
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New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. took a brutal shot to the groin on Thursday night. (Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)
Yankees beat writer Gary Philips shared some quotes from Chisholm explaining why he wasn’t a cup guy before taking a foul ball to the cojones, and why he isn’t going to be a cup guy moving forward.
WEEKS AFTER BULLFIGHTER SUFFERED PERFORATED RECTUM, ANOTHER WAS GORED IN GROIN AND REQUIRED EMERGENCY SURGERY
Chisholm said that the pain level was a “million,” and that, “If you ever got hit in the testicles, you would know.”
Most males reading this just nodded at that statement.
But Chisholm revealed that despite cups being mandatory in the minor leagues, he still skipped them and will continue to because he trusts his own defensive abilities.
“I’ve never worn a cup,” he said. “I’ve never been hit in the balls. That was just unlucky.”
Now, there are times when I wonder why men don’t wear cups all the time just for some peace of mind (I feel that way about helmets too). You wouldn’t regret not wearing a cup until the moment you’re at a cookout and a rogue volleyball puts you in shambles.
But I also like that Chisholm trusts himself to react and protect the boys. I’ve always said that a fairly significant part of a man’s life is devoted to protecting his lower anatomy.
You’re ever vigilant, trying to steer clear of anything that could leave you doubled over on the ground, and spouting off every expletive you know and several others you didn’t realize you knew.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. says he’ll rely on his defensive abilities instead of wearing a cup moving forward. (David Richard-Imagn Images)
Waist-high branches, table corners, projectiles, bicycle seats, even a pet jumping in your lap when you’re not ready.
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Chisholm is self-aware enough to know where his self-preservation reflexes stand, and I respect that.
But if he takes another foul ball to the lower area of his body, he might want to start rethinking that stance on cups.
Sports
Summer football notebook: Running back AJ McBean transfers to Gardena Serra
There have been dozens of football transfers in Southern California during the offseason, but the one transfer who could make the greatest impact is running back AJ McBean, who announced he was leaving Mira Costa High for Gardena Serra.
McBean, who ran 10.55 seconds in the 100 meters this spring thanks to Mira Costa’s track program and his commitment to getting faster, joins a Serra offense that returns all five starters on the offensive line. He’s got the speed and strength to help the Cavaliers make up for not reaching the Southern Section playoffs last season out of the extremely competitive Mission League.
He’s been a long-time resident of Hermosa Beach, so what would motivate him to leave Mira Costa after recently making a commitment to Stanford? He apparently wants to prepare for college by being used in a more versatile role catching passes out of the backfield to show off his many skills. At least that’s what his family told coach Scott Altenberg. Mira Costa was changing its offense to better feature him, so it’s a tough loss for the Mustangs.
McBean will have to move to become eligible immediately.
Hope at Whittier
Former Garfield coach Lorenzo Hernandez, in his first season at Whittier, has already discovered a talent he can’t wait to develop. Offensive and defensive lineman Joseph Medina from the class of 2028 has made quite a first impression on Hernandez.
Medina didn’t play last season, “and in three months that we have been here, he is off the charts,” Hernandez said.
Hernandez calls him “a great technician and amazing leader.”
Agoura QB depth
Never has coach Dustin Croick of Agoura had more quality depth at quarterback than what he will have this season thanks to two newcomers.
Junior Kris Carranza has transferred from Sierra Canyon to Agoura and is a top candidate to start. The Chargers are also adding incoming freshman quarterback Emerson Andrews, whose father, David, played tight end at Ohio State and was a member of the 2002 national championship team. He is director of athletic performance for UCLA’s men’s basketball program. If anyone has a strength and conditioning question, submit it to Emerson, who knows someone.
Commitments rolling in
With college recruiters headed on vacation, lots of players decided to make commitments to make sure they have a “certain” destination. There’s also a new trend of players announcing on social media posts that they are “shutting down” their recruitment, which is supposed to mean their decision is final. Then how come others keep recruiting them? Because it’s never final in this era of NIL.
Quarterback Chris Fields, the City Section player of the year from Carson, committed to Georgetown. Offensive lineman Micah Butler from Hamilton committed to Sacramento State. Kicker Gabriel Goroyan of Westlake committed to Stanford. Defensive back Wesley Ace from Gardena Serra committed to San Jose State.
Man among boys
USC recruiters deserve praise for identifying the best in Southern California and pursuing them with great intensity. There’s no doubt that Damien safety Gavin Williams, a USC commit, will be the standard for excellence this coming season. He’s fast and strong and players who don’t adjust to his physical skills are in for a surprise.
Damien won the Chaminade seven-on-seven passing tournament on Saturday, beating Crespi in the final. On the first play, Williams caught a long touchdown pass, sprinting well past the defender who had no idea how fast he runs.
First-year coaches galore
It’s going to be fun tracking the progress of first-year football coaches this season because there are so many at well-known programs. The question of who will have the best record should be debated all summer.
Iggy Porchia became the latest new hire, replacing his mentor, the late Angelo Gasca, at Venice.
There should be a competition on which new private coach will have the best record and which new public school coach will have the best record. There’s so many candidates with new coaches at JSerra, Orange Lutheran, Servite, Los Alamitos, St. Francis, St. Bernard, Bishop Montgomery, Oaks Christian, Whittier Christian, Bishop Alemany, Muir, Pasadena, Long Beach Poly, Arroyo, North Hollywood, Sun Valley Poly and on it goes.
Transfer issues coming
It appears the Southern Section will be busy again this fall after last year’s eligibility scandal when it declared 19 transfer students ineligible at Bishop Montgomery, resulting in the varsity season being ended after one game and forcing the Archdiocese of Los Angeles to clean up what looked like a preventable mess.
This time it could be public schools facing scrutiny. The same rumors that started last summer about schools loading up on transfers are circulating again this summer. Principals who don’t act after multiple transfers seemingly out of nowhere start showing up to play football only have themselves to blame.
And schools that delay submitting transfer paperwork until the last minute thinking investigators will be too busy to spot an error don’t understand the process.
City Section commissioner Vicky Lagos has a policy that she immediately schedules a meeting with the administration, athletic director, coach and parents when one school receives multiple transfers to review paperwork. The Southern Section deployed AI last fall to help it catch parents submitting false information.
So prepare for more exciting times. It’s like a cat-and-mouse game. And don’t forget about the anonymous emails identifying parents not living at the official address they put on their transfer paperwork.
Sports
Cubs look to build on offensive breakout against struggling Blue Jays starter Patrick Corbin
MLB faces DOJ investigation over Pride hats controversy
Major League Baseball is under a DOJ investigation following controversy over Pride-themed hats. The San Francisco Giants pitchers wrote Bible verses on rainbow caps, prompting an MLB warning and a DOJ statement questioning a ‘double standard’ for ‘Black Lives Matter’ patches versus religious inscriptions. This follows the York Revolution forfeiting a game due to players refusing Pride jerseys, highlighting free speech and religious liberty issues within sports.
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I’m glad we didn’t take the run line yesterday in the baseball game. We had the under eight for the game between the White Sox and Tigers, and it ended 4-3. The Tigers did pull off the win, but as I mentioned, it wasn’t justified that Detroit should be -250, even with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Today, we shift to the Chicago National League team as the Cubs host the Blue Jays.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a team I’ve written about probably more than most squads in the league. That’s not a complaint or anything, it just happens that I see a lot of value in their games. Most of that is because when they are favorites, they aren’t big favorites given their 37-39 record and rash of injuries to their pitching staff. When they are dogs, they are usually pretty small pups, offering little value, but that means the opposing favorite isn’t too high of a price.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Saturday, May 30, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images) (Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The Jays were blitzed by the Cubs yesterday, and they will need a strong start today from Patrick Corbin. The once highly touted hurler is just 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He had a decent year with the Rangers, but seems to be struggling again, as he did in his time with the Nationals. Corbin is a little more reliable on the road, given that he has pitched 10 more innings and has allowed three fewer runs on the road than at home, leading to a 3.57 ERA. He hasn’t given the Blue Jays much lately, going just 11.2 innings in three starts and allowing 11 runs on 17 hits. Cubs hitters are very strong against him, batting .316 against him.
The Cubs are one of the more frustrating teams to watch this season. Perhaps that is me just saying that as a fan of the team, but they’ve had two 10-game winning streaks, and also a losing streak of 10 games. Since May 9, the team has gone 13-24. Sure, some of that can be attributed to injuries to their pitching staff — they have only two healthy starters from the beginning of the year. But, most of this needs to be placed on the hitting of the club. Nico Hoerner is batting .238, Ian Happ is at .228, and Dansby Swanson is a pathetic .177.
Toronto Blue Jays’ Ernie Clement hits a three-run home run during the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles in Toronto on June 6, 2026. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)
Still, the Cubs broke out the bats yesterday, and Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like the five-tool player from the first half of last season. If they can get some pitching, maybe they will be the dominant team we saw earlier this year. Today’s starter is Colin Rea, who has not been very good this month. He has made three starts, allowed 19 hits, and 13 earned runs over 14.2 innings pitched. He has, however, been much better at home with a 3.03 ERA in five starts (six appearances). Blue Jays hitters haven’t seen much of him, but are hitting .176 against Rea in 17 at-bats.
There is a clear player prop to play in this one. However, the bad news is that he is not on the list of options, so you might need to request or find him in a different book other than DraftKings. Michael Conforto is 12-for-36 against Corbin with seven extra-base hits, including five homers. I’d play him at 2+ total bases and at one homer as long as you can get +200 or better for the bases, and +700 for the homer prop.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after getting hit by a pitch in the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on May 17, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Michael Hirschuber/Getty Images)
If you can’t find it, or they never post it (but I have to imagine they will give options once he is added to the lineup, and he absolutely should be, given his history), I still have a play. I’m taking the Cubs at -130 here. Rea isn’t the most reliable, but he should at least be decent here, and the Cubs will have the fresher bullpen. Give me the Cubs to win this one.
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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
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