Yow will discover all our protection of Virginia’s altering demographics right here.

In January, we reported on Virginia’s new inhabitants estimates, which confirmed that Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads — however particularly Northern Virginia — are actually dropping inhabitants whereas some elements of rural Virginia are actually gaining.

These estimates have been a precursor to nationwide estimates, which the U.S. Census Bureau has now launched, which supplies us a possibility to see Virginia’s inhabitants adjustments in a nationwide context. So let’s get to it.

1. The inhabitants losses in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads stand out much more as a result of they’re at odds with different Southern metros. Raleigh, Charlotte, Nashville, Atlanta, you identify it — all these locations gained inhabitants. In dropping inhabitants, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads have way more in widespread with Northeastern metros corresponding to New York and Boston that additionally misplaced individuals. I’ve regarded earlier than at why that is: Excessive housing prices are usually blamed however this turns into a sophisticated debate. Gov. Glenn Youngkin says Virginia’s taxes are too excessive; Del. Vivian Watts, D-Fairfax County, has countered that the state hasn’t invested sufficient in transportation to ease Northern Virginia’s notorious site visitors congestion. We is not going to resolve that debate at present. Regardless of the causes, the vital factor to know is that Virginia’s two greatest metro areas are dropping inhabitants whereas different large Southern metros are gaining. Virginia’s leaders from each events would possibly need to ponder why that’s. 

2. Virginia’s hottest vacation spot for individuals transferring in — Richmond — isn’t almost as well-liked as different locations within the Mid-Atlantic. We’ve reported earlier than that extra persons are transferring out of Virginia than are transferring in; Youngkin has cited this as a worrisome metric that he usually displays. That internet out-migration is pushed principally by outflows from Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, however some locations in Virginia are attracting extra new residents than they’re dropping. The preferred vacation spot is the Richmond metro. The truth is, the Richmond metro is now the fastest-growing a part of the state. Nevertheless, Richmond’s inhabitants features attributable to internet in-migration are effectively under these of different metros within the Mid-Atlantic. Since 2020, Richmond has seen 15,848 new residents via home migration. Nevertheless, 10 different metros within the Mid-Atlantic rank greater. The Charlotte metro leads the way in which with 63,742, whereas Myrtle Seashore is second with 53,801 and the Raleigh metro is third with 47,750. Some context: “Raleigh, which is about 8 % bigger than the Richmond metro space, attracted over thrice extra home migrants between 2020 and 2022 than Richmond,” says demographer Hamilton Lombard on the Weldon Cooper Heart for Public Service on the College of Virginia, “whereas Myrtle Seashore, which is near a 3rd the scale of the Richmond metro space, attracted much more home migrants than Raleigh.”

Now, whether or not that’s a very good factor or a nasty factor clearly will depend on your perspective. Youngkin equates inhabitants development with financial development and financial development does, undoubtedly, drive inhabitants development. Individuals don’t transfer to communities which are economically failing. Nevertheless, others would possibly say there’s such a factor as an excessive amount of inhabitants development. I dwell in a rural neighborhood as a result of I don’t need too many individuals round me, so we are able to have sturdy arguments over simply how a lot inhabitants development is an excessive amount of. Alternatively, a spot that’s dropping inhabitants is clearly a nasty factor economically. Possibly individuals in Richmond are pleased with that degree of inhabitants development and wouldn’t need to see development that’s thrice and even 4 occasions sooner — that’s not for me to say. I’m merely mentioning that different locations within the  Mid-Atlantic are way more well-liked locations than Virginia’s hottest vacation spot.

3. Virginia’s second hottest vacation spot for home migration might shock you: It’s Bristol. Nicely, technically, the Kingsport-Bristol metro, so there’s extra Tennessee in that metro than Virginia. Nonetheless, that metro noticed a home migration of 8,928. That’s greater than Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina (8,527), and Greensboro-Excessive Level, North Carolina (6,285). Wager you wouldn’t have predicted that. “This traces up effectively with Realtor.com rating the Kingsport-Bristol area as having among the finest housing markets within the nation,” Lombard says.

For comparability functions, the Winchester metro is 3,530, the Lynchburg metro is 2,658, the Staunton metro is 1,928, the Roanoke metro is 1,028, the Charlottesville metro is 872, the Danville metro is 545, the Martinsville metro is 348 and the Bluefield metro is 276. It’s noteworthy that these final three metros – all small and fewer prosperous – are within the plus vary. Against this, Hampton Roads exhibits a lack of 6,754 whereas all the Washington metro (overlaying Northern Virginia, D.C. and elements of Maryland) has a lack of 135,014. As I’ve identified earlier than, many elements of rural Virginia could also be dropping inhabitants as a result of deaths outnumber births, however by way of migration, some locations have fastened their inhabitants outflows. When Virginia exhibits extra individuals transferring out than transferring in, the issue is Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, not Danville, Martinsville, Bristol and so forth.

4. “Way of life communities” are gaining inhabitants quick. Discover that Myrtle Seashore has seen extra new individuals transfer in than every other place within the Mid-Atlantic aside from Charlotte. Another smaller communities rank excessive on the listing. Hilton Head, South Carolina, has gained 12,030, virtually as many as Richmond. Asheville, North Carolina, has gained 11,060. That is according to different information we’ve seen; if the Zoom period permits individuals to dwell anyplace they need, many are selecting seaside retreats — or, within the case of Asheville, a spot with a repute as a mountain resort. We see that pattern play out in Virginia with inhabitants development alongside the Chesapeake Bay and, conceivably, a number of the inhabitants development in some rural counties alongside the Blue Ridge is pushed by this as effectively. Ours simply aren’t rising as quick as different locations.

5. Virginia is uncommon amongst Southeastern states as a result of it has loads of rural areas which are dropping inhabitants. When Virginia’s inhabitants estimates got here out, it was noteworthy that many — although actually not all — rural areas confirmed some inhabitants development. Once we look extra broadly, via a nationwide lens, we see that we may be lacking the forest for the bushes, so to talk. In Southside, Southwest and the Alleghany Highlands, we nonetheless have loads of localities which are dropping inhabitants. Nevertheless, in North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia, nearly each locality is gaining inhabitants. All it’s a must to do is have a look at the map to see how Virginia’s southern border acts as a demographic demarcation. In Virginia, now we have a checkerboard of rural counties, some gaining, some dropping. South of us, there’s way more widespread inhabitants development. As soon as once more, Virginia’s leaders from each events would possibly need to ponder why that’s. Youngkin cites tax variations. I’m not able to dispute that, however I’ll gently level out that taxes are extra difficult than that. Tennessee has no revenue tax, as an example, however the tradeoff is it has the nation’s second highest gross sales tax charges. In a earlier column, I regarded extra intently at why jap Tennessee has extra inhabitants development than Southwest Virginia; the solutions contain geography and historic patterns of growth. Regardless of the cause, the sample is evident: Inhabitants development in rural areas is extra uneven than in our Southern neighbors.

6. Migration to rural areas is slowing, however nonetheless persevering with. “Throughout the top of the pandemic, many small counties skilled greater ranges of home migration, whereas many massive counties noticed decrease ranges of home migration,” the Census Bureau says. “This sample has reversed between 2021 and 2022, the place lots of the small counties that skilled will increase in home migration noticed that sample decelerate.” Decelerate, however not halt altogether. Demographers are nonetheless watching these tendencies to see if this Zoom-era bump in rural inhabitants development is a short lived phenomenon or one thing longer-lasting. Nonetheless, the exodus from some metro areas continues. Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia and Detroit, in that order, noticed the most important numbers of individuals transferring out. So who’s gaining?

7. The Sunbelt continues to be the place the inhabitants development is. When it comes to uncooked numbers of individuals transferring in, the 2 greatest gainers are Maricopa County, Arizona (Phoenix), and Harris County, Texas (Houston). The ten fastest-gaining counties are all in Arizona (one), Texas (six) and Florida (three). There are those that view these development tendencies in political phrases, making the case that Republican-governed states are gaining and Democratic-governed ones are dropping — Illinois and New York are the 2 basic examples cited, though currently California has joined them. I’m undecided I purchase that as a result of there are too many exceptions. Mississippi and West Virginia are ruled by Republicans and nearly each county in these states is dropping inhabitants. Washington state is ruled by Democrats and nearly each county there’s gaining inhabitants. I think the explanations are way more nuanced. Occasion management actually has one thing to do with the insurance policies a state enacts (be it the taxes that Youngkin says are too excessive or the funding that Watts says it too low), however we additionally need to consider underlying demographics and financial components — together with, effectively, sunshine.