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Oscars 2025: The five leading best picture contenders and how they might win

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Oscars 2025: The five leading best picture contenders and how they might win

We’re heading into the early stretch of awards season where voters are about to embark on a long holiday weekend, give thanks and sift through a topsy-turvy world in which it’s the Dallas Cowboys and not the Detroit Lions who can be safely ignored on the Thanksgiving Day football schedule.

And still … no best picture front-runner. In fact, it’s easier to knock holes in the cases for the most prominent contenders than to argue why it’s plausible they might win.

Still, some movie has to win the Oscar. I do wonder if we’ll look back on this time in a few weeks, slap our foreheads and think, “Of course, ‘Anora’ was always going to win,” because by that point it had swept through various precursors. Right now, though, that’s as hard to imagine as the Cowboys making the playoffs. Or Jerry Jones building a stadium where sunlight isn’t an enemy.

Just for fun, let’s run down the five leading contenders, the movies that will head the field of 10 nominees. Maybe we can convince ourselves that we’re missing something. Or who knows, maybe we are missing something.

Mikey Madison and Mark Eydelshteyn in “Anora”

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(Neon)

“Anora”: It starts with the letter A, so it’s at the top of the list. Also: It’s arguably the best of the movies here, likely to win best picture from the Los Angeles or New York film critics’ groups, with writer-director Sean Baker taking some honors as well. It’s also an indie hit, topping $10 million, and, judging from the conversations I’ve had with academy voters, it has left most everyone who has seen it more than satisfied.

Ostensibly, “Anora” is about a stripper who moonlights as a sex worker and ends up marrying one of her clients, the irresponsible son of a Russian oligarch. But it’s many movies in one — a screwball comedy, a tense reckoning with reality, a story of wealth and power, a tender love story. There’s humor and sadness and terror, sometimes in the same scene. It has a star turn from Mikey Madison, who might just win the lead actress Oscar. And there’s an utterly surprising, deeply soulful supporting performance from Yura Borisov, playing Igor, a hired goon who comes to love the title character almost as much as we do. He’s the movie’s secret weapon.

Is there a precedent for a movie about a sex worker winning best picture? You remember Joe Buck, right? (Not the ubiquitous sports announcer.) “Midnight Cowboy” took the Oscar, and it had an X rating. And we’ve come a long way in the last 55 years. OK … we’ve also regressed in some respects too. But “Anora” could very well be the movie to beat.

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A man looks down as sparks fly around him in "The Brutalist."

Adrien Brody in “The Brutalist.”

(A24)

“The Brutalist”: It’s 3 hours and 35 minutes long. It’s in 70mm. It has a built-in intermission, complete with a handy clock counting down the remaining time. Yes, Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” is a lot — but in a good way. Not like, say, “Babylon.” This is a movie I anticipate seeing again. It’s a big swing that mostly connects, a film with much to say about the immigrant dream at a time when the immigrant experience is very much in the national conversation.

“The Brutalist” is an event movie made for anyone who obsesses over their Letterboxd account. But it’s also an intimate story about a Holocaust survivor and brilliant architect who possesses a singular vision. So, though I wouldn’t recommend doing this, Oscar voters could watch it on the academy portal over the course of a couple of nights. It’d work. And they’d know exactly when to break up the viewing. Thanks, Brady Corbet! (No, seriously, thanks. “The Brutalist” is a stunning achievement.)

A fierce-looking nun stands amid a group of Catholic cardinals in "Conclave."

Isabella Rossellini stars as Sister Agnes in “Conclave.”

(Focus Features)

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“Conclave”: I enjoyed “Conclave” when I caught its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival. We need more movies like “Conclave,” pulpy, impeccably made crowd-pleasers starring scene stealers like Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci and Isabella Rossellini. In fact, you may be old enough to remember when there’d be dozens of these sleek melodramas geared toward grown-ups. That it has found an audience makes me happy, even if its story of the schemes involved in electing a new pope feels a bit slight and silly to take it too seriously as a movie that could win best picture. And that ending? Hoo-boy. It did get people talking, but maybe not in the ways that the filmmakers would appreciate.

A woman walks past a brightly colored background in "Emilia Pérez."

Karla Sofía Gascón in “Emilia Pérez.”

(PAGE 114 – WHY NOT)

“Emilia Pérez”: I wrote about “Emilia Pérez” last week, calling it a lock for international feature, owing to the fact that it’s likely to pull in several nominations and a lot of people genuinely like it. But also: Some people really hate it, and they’re not shy about making their feelings known. It seems like there isn’t a group of people not offended by Jacques Audiard’s musical soap opera about a Mexican cartel boss looking to transition to a woman. Trans activists feel the movie is dismissive, as do many people who care about Mexican culture. As do many people devoted to Selena Gomez, who plays the cartel boss’ wife and has to say some truly awful dialogue. To sum up: It’s polarizing. And divisive movies don’t often go on to win the best picture Oscar.

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A green-skinned witch and woman in pink stand together in "Wicked."

Cynthia Erivo is Elphaba and Ariana Grande is Glinda in “Wicked.”

(Universal Pictures)

“Wicked”: Here’s a movie that you may have heard a little something about. It’s the film adaptation of the Broadway musical, with Cynthia Erivo playing Elphaba, later known as the Wicked Witch of the West, and Ariana Grande doing light comedy as Glinda. It’s a story of women coming into their own and bonding over magic. You’ve probably already bought tickets to it.

The critics were kinder to “Wicked” than I thought they’d be, and guild audiences have greeted it with enthusiastic standing ovations. It figures to do well with fraudulent awards shows like the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, meaning, at least in the case of the Globes, it’ll get some good airtime. Its blunt, allegorical references to fascism figure to play well postelection, but kids will like it too! Its biggest hurdle is that it’s the first entry of a two-part movie, just half the story. It’s the best half, from what I gather. But many voters will resist jumping the gun.

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Film Review: ‘Get Away’ Can’t Be Saved by a Respectable Twist – Awards Radar

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Film Review: ‘Get Away’ Can’t Be Saved by a Respectable Twist – Awards Radar

The premise of Steffen Haars’ latest collaboration with Nick Frost (the two have also worked together on Krazy House, which premiered at Sundance earlier this year and received less-than-favorable reviews) in Get Away seems oddly familiar with its primary inspiration: Ari Aster’s Midsommar. The movie, written by Frost, tracks a typical family on holiday in Sweden, and things go predictably wrong. We quickly learn that they long to take the ferry to Svälta, where, every year, the inhabitants of its ‘commune’ craft an eight-hour play to remember their darkest day, known as Karantan. Expectedly so, when they arrive, the family, comprised of Richard (Frost), Susan (Aisling Bea), Sam (Sebastian Croft), and Jessie (Maisie Ayres), is unwelcome on the island. 

First, they are warned by a restaurant owner not to step foot in Svälta (if they want to remain alive, thus the title, “Get Away”). Then, they are told to leave by its inhabitants. However, they did rent an Airbnb and are, thus, reluctantly permitted to stay. There’s a political subtext that explains why they’re unwelcomed, but this doesn’t get exploited to its fullest extent. What instead follows rehashes plenty of narrative (and thematic) beats we have seen in a film like Midsommar, where the family is constantly frightened by Svälta’s community, whether being observed in secret or in planting a dead animal carcass at their front door. 

Suffice it to say things aren’t going well for this family…until Haars takes an abrupt right turn before its climax with one hell of a twist. Initially, the presentation of that reveal is respectable enough and relatively fun to watch. Haars saves all of the carnage (and a sick Iron Maiden needle-drop) for that part of the movie where the emotional connection with the protagonists is now at its highest because we now understand why they are here at this specific moment in Svälta. It’s something this reviewer won’t give away because many won’t see it coming, even if some clues in its opening section may point some astute viewers in this direction. 

After such a scene where the film’s blood-soaked gore is exacerbated by nifty practical effects and comically twisted violence, Get Away abruptly stops giving its central twist momentum and begins to peter out. The comedic punchline of that sequence is well-executed, and it gets undoubtedly over-the-top. Still, there’s an incessant disconnection with the protagonists that we begin to feel as soon as Haars takes that abrupt right turn and does nothing of interest with it. Perhaps the Midsommar sections of ‘bad things happening to certain family members who are gaslighted by others in thinking everything’s fine when it is not’ aren’t particularly inspired, but it at least puts the audience in a relatively safe place where they can attach themselves to the protagonists, because they know what’s coming. 

Because of this, the twist looks bold and certainly leans us forward to the screen once it occurs. However, when doing something like this, Haars (and, by extension, Frost) must commit to that abrupt shift and consistently make it a part of the movie’s identity. Unfortunately, it only seems to exist to distract audiences from the fact that its setting (and plot) feels awfully close to another – and better – movie. 

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That said, the core relationship of Richard’s family in its pre-twist section is entertaining enough. Frost, in particular, is quite adequate, even if he plays an extension of the figures he portrayed in Edgar Wright’s Cornetto trilogy. Only when the movie reaches that twist does this character relationship become less interesting because it boxes all of the protagonists inside one-note attributes without ever fleshing them out. As a result, when Get Away reaches its comical ending, it doesn’t land with the emotional – or cathartic – feeling that it should. 

The funny thing about this is how the film’s pre-twist half set up a rather intriguing rivalry between the family and commune, with its leader (played by Anitta Suikkari) wanting to resurrect an age-old tradition that Svälta’s inhabitants are opposed to. There’s a debate within the village that could’ve truly fractured them and led the film to a subversively fun climax where, in any event, practical blood will pour down like there’s no tomorrow. It does, but not in the way you think. Of course, Haars definitely has fun killing people with as many vintage effects as he can, and we are also primed to enjoy watching this deliciously twisted feast of blood and guts. But at what emotional cost?

SCORE: ★★

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Jamie Foxx reveals he had a stroke in Netflix stand-up special: 'I don't remember 20 days'

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Jamie Foxx reveals he had a stroke in Netflix stand-up special: 'I don't remember 20 days'

Jamie Foxx is finally telling the whole story about his hospitalization last year in the language he knows best: comedy.

In his new comedy special released Tuesday, the Oscar winner revealed that he suffered a stroke last April. At that time, Foxx’s family had released a since-deleted statement that he was receiving care for an undisclosed “medical complication.”

While Foxx continued to share updates on his recovery, he declined in March to tell the full story until he could do so “in a funny way,” Variety reported.

He made good on that promise with arrival of his Netflix stand-up special “What Had Happened Was.”

During the 68-minute show, Foxx recounts his months-long health journey — beginning with the April evening when a “bad headache” turned much graver.

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“I asked my boy for a aspirin,” he recalled, “and I realized quickly that when you in a medical emergency, your boys don’t know what the f— to do.

“Before I could get the aspirin,” he continued, pausing to snap his fingers, “I went out. I don’t remember 20 days.”

With the help of friends and family, Foxx said he pieced together an account of what happened immediately after. The first doctor to see him administered a cortisone shot and sent him off with “half-star service,” he quipped.

But his younger sister Deidra Dixon, who he called “4 foot of nothing but pure love,” wasn’t satisfied. So she drove until she came upon Atlanta’s Piedmont Hospital. She had never heard of the facility before, Foxx said, “but she had a hunch that some angels is in there.”

That doctor said Foxx had a brain bleed that had led to a stroke, the comedian said, and his sister continually prayed during his entire operation.

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“They put me back together again,” Foxx said. “Atlanta saved my life.”

When he finally woke up one morning in May 2023, “The Jamie Foxx Show” star said he was startled to find himself in a wheelchair and stubbornly insisted on attempting to walk. Dramatically reenacting the scene in the special, Foxx’s legs tremble, his eyes wide. In the end, he said he admitted defeat.

Throughout the special, the “Just Mercy” actor also joked about his daughter Corinne’s fears that he would be “memed” for his condition, adding that being bathed by his nurse was more scarring than the stroke itself.

“You have no idea how good this feels,” Foxx told the Atlanta crowd as he opened his set. “If I dance all night, don’t mind me. I’m happy to be alive.”

Corinne Foxx first announced in April 2023 that Foxx was being treated for a medical emergency. In response to her since-deleted announcement, speculation arose about the details of the emergency. Corinne later slammed such rumors, lamenting “how the media runs wild” and adding that her dad had “been out of the hospital for weeks, recuperating.”

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The revelation about Foxx’s stroke did not come until “What Had Happened Was.” Before Tuesday, the actor had spoken publicly about the medical emergency without details. He has also regularly updated fans on social media about his health and well-being.

Meanwhile, “Back in Action,” Foxx’s action movie with Cameron Diaz, releases in theaters Jan. 17.

Filming for the movie was delayed upon Foxx’s April 2023 hospitalization. In January, Page Six published photos of the co-stars seemingly on set, though it is unclear if Foxx still had scenes to shoot.

Times staffers Nardine Saad and Alexandra Del Rosario contributed to this report.

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‘A Complete Unknown’ Critics Praise Timothée Chalamet’s “Electrifying” and “Authentic” Performance as Bob Dylan

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‘A Complete Unknown’ Critics Praise Timothée Chalamet’s “Electrifying” and “Authentic” Performance as Bob Dylan

The first reviews for A Complete Unknown are in, and critics are mostly raving about the Bob Dylan biopic. 

Directed by James Mangold, the film follows Timothée Chalamet’s Dylan from January 1961 to his 1965 concert at the Newport Folk Festival. The singer-songwriter has just arrived in New York City from Minnesota and is ready to explore the city’s folk music scene and find chart-topping success. Along the way, Dylan stirs up controversy over his use of electronic instruments. 

Based on Elijah Wald’s Dylan Goes Electric! Newport, Seeger, Dylan, and the Night That Split the Sixties, A Complete Unknown is already receiving awards buzz. The biopic was nominated for three Golden Globes, including best motion picture – drama and best performance by a male actor in a motion picture – drama.

As of Tuesday afternoon, A Complete Unknown had a Rotten Tomatoes score of 74 percent from 58 reviews, and a 70 percent rating on Metacritic from 27 reviews. Chalamet is a producer on the film, which is set to hit theaters on Dec. 25 and also stars Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook and Scoot McNairy in supporting roles.

The Hollywood Reporter‘s chief film critic David Rooney calls Chalamet’s performance “electrifying — in every sense” and applauds the actor’s voice, which he says is “raw, nasal, scratchy but full of passion, anger and wry wisdom” and “near enough to the original to be unmistakable and yet colored by the actor’s persona to a degree that suggests something closer to symbiosis than impersonation.”

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“Any Dylan fan or indeed anyone with a fondness for the music coming out of New York City in the first half of that tumultuous decade will find ample pleasures in Mangold’s expertly crafted film,” Rooney writes. “The period recreation is impeccable, and the many music performance sequences could not be more transporting, benefiting enormously from lead actors doing their own singing with estimable polish.”

The Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw writes that “Timothée Chalamet’s hilarious and seductive portrayal of Bob Dylan makes him the smirking, scowling and unwilling leader of his generation, whose refusal to submit to the crucifixion of folk-acoustic purity is his own crucifixion. Chalamet gives us a semi-serious ordeal of someone who is part Steinbeck hero, part boyband star, part sacrificial deity.”

The BBC’s Caryn James gushes about Norton, who is nominated for a Golden Globe for best supporting actor. 

“Edward Norton delivers a sly turn as Pete Seeger, who happens to be visiting at that moment and takes Dylan under his wing,” James writes. “As the film goes on, Norton is especially good at capturing the respect tinged with jealousy Dylan evokes in Seeger, benevolence turning to rigid disapproval when Dylan’s music begins to change. Like all the other supporting actors, Norton does his own singing, impressively.”

USA Today’s Brian Truitt compares A Complete Unknown to Mangold’s 2005 music biopic Walk the Line: “Mangold’s outing is an entertaining and magnetic watch, just as much as his standout Johnny Cash movie Walk the Line. The movie doesn’t bother with a backstory — only a photo album and mail addressed to ‘Robert Zimmerman’ nod to his past — and is much better for it. And while Chalamet nicely matches Dylan’s nasal delivery on all-timers like ‘Girl from the North Country’ and ‘Blowin’ in the Wind,’ his performances feel wholly authentic rather than annoyingly imitative.”

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Brian Tallerico of RogerEbert.com writes that A Complete Unknown “is about all the variables that shape and warp creativity.” 

“Eschewing the often-shallow approach of the cradle-to-the-grave biopic to tell a formative chapter in music and world history, Mangold’s film fluidly captures the intersection of art and fame with solid performances, unshowy direction and organic editing,” Tallerico says. “As someone who generally loathes the ‘greatest hits’ storytelling of films about famous figures and how they often rely on the printed legend instead of doing anything, and someone who has a strong love for the music of the purposefully enigmatic Bob Dylan, I have to admit to expecting A Complete Unknown to be predictably out of tune. Like its subject has done so many times in his six-decade career, this one exceeds expectations.”

IndieWire’s David Ehrlich gave the music biopic a harsher review, writing that the film is “admirable yet deeply frustrating.” 

“Eager to defy the kind of beat-by-beat explainer that Walk the Line might have led people to expect from him, but also fundamentally not the sort of filmmaker who shares Dylan’s instinct for coloring outside the lines (or his contrarianism), Mangold struggles to portray Dylan as an enigma without reducing him to an empty shell — a hollow vessel for his own genius,” Ehrlich writes. “The musician spends most of the movie fumbling his way from one moment of divine inspiration to the next, seemingly as unsure as we are about what his songs mean or where they might come from.”

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