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Putting the NFC North’s dominance in context: Best division since realignment?

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Putting the NFC North’s dominance in context: Best division since realignment?

The NFL’s Thanksgiving schedule delivers three-fourths of what could become the most dominant division since the league realigned in 2002.

The 2024 NFC North is the first division since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to feature three teams with at least eight victories through Week 12, led by the 10-1 Detroit Lions, who have tied an all-time NFL mark for most victories in a season by at least 38 points (three, all outside the division).

With the Lions facing the division-rival Chicago Bears (4-7) in the early game Thursday before the 8-3 Green Bay Packers play the late game against the AFC East’s Miami Dolphins, the 2024 NFC North — which also includes the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings — stands apart. It could well decide who takes home the Lombardi Trophy.

The Lions (+260), Packers (+750) and Vikings (+850) are among the top seven in Super Bowl odds, per BetMGM, and the top four in odds to win the NFC, along with the Philadelphia Eagles (+325). The Lions remain Super Bowl favorites, comfortably ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (+450), while the NFC North has the shortest odds to produce the champion at +175, half of the second-place AFC West (+350).

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The chart below shows where all eight divisions have ranked each season since the league realigned in 2002 in point margin per game (X-axis) and win rate (Y-axis) in non-divisional games through the first 12 weeks of each season. The 2024 NFC North (red dot) ranks first among these 184 divisional seasons in average point margin (+9.5) and second in win rate (.765), per TruMedia.

scatter visualization

Only the 2022 NFC East (26-7) had a better record than the 2024 NFC North (26-8) in non-division games through Week 12, but the current NFC North had a far better average point margin (+9.5 to +5.1) in these games.

Here’s what you need to know about where the NFC North stands and what it must do to become the most dominant division over a full season since realignment.

1. The NFC North is by far the most dominant division this season.

The scheduling rotation (which we’ll explore later) is part of the equation, but this level of dominance is extreme.

2024 non-divisional game scorecard

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Division W-L Point Margin

NFC North

26-8 (.765)

+323

AFC West

19-12 (.613)

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+74

AFC North

17-16 (.515)

+56

NFC West

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15-15 (.500)

-33

NFC East

15-16 (.484)

-33

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AFC East

13-18 (.419)

-38

NFC South

10-18 (.357)

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-138

AFC South

11-23 (.324)

-211

AFC North teams lead the way in total victories over opponents who currently have winning records (11) and total non-divisional victories in these games (nine). The NFC North is second with eight and six.

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Since 2002, the NFC North’s +323 point margin ranks first by 64 points over the runner-up 2013 NFC West (+259) through Week 12. That is larger than the difference between the 2013 NFC West and the sixth-ranked division in that span, the 2011 NFC North (+200). The table below shows the only divisions since 2002 with PPG margins greater than 7.0 through Week 12, led by the 2024 NFC North.

2002-24 non-division PPG margin (Wk 1-12)

Division W-L PPG Margin

2024 NFC North

26-8 (.765)

+9.5

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2013 NFC West

23-9 (.719)

+8.1

2002 NFC South

17-8-1 (.673)

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+7.3

2008 NFC South

22-8 (.733)

+7.2

2011 NFC North

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19-9 (.679)

+7.1

2005 AFC West

20-10 (.667)

+7.1

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2. Strong defense has been the key to the NFC North dominating its non-divisional schedule.

The 2024 NFC North ranks first among 184 divisions since 2002 in defensive EPA per play against non-division opponents, compared to a No. 69 ranking in offensive EPA per play.

Non-Division Category 2024 NFC North Rank of 184

W-L

26-8 (.765)

2

PPG

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26.1

16

PPG allowed

16.6

2

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PPG differential

+9.5

1

Score differential/play

+4.86

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1

OFF EPA/play

+0.013

69

DEF EPA/play

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+0.148

1

All four NFC North teams rank among the NFL’s top 10 in defensive EPA per play across all games this season. They are all in the top five when isolating non-divisional games only. The Lions and Packers also rank among the top 10 on offense across all games and in non-division games.

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3. Dominating a weak AFC South accounts for 61 percent of the NFC North’s +323 point differential in non-division games.

NFC North teams are 8-0 with a +144 differential against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. They are 14-2 with a +197 differential against the full AFC South. Bad teams get blown out. The NFC North has played its share of them.

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2024 NFC North non-division scorecard

Forty-five percent of the +323 differential in non-division games stems from facing the Jaguars and Titans, while 61 percent stems from facing the AFC South overall.

The six other divisions are a combined 9-9 against the AFC South, with a +14 differential. That includes a 6-7 mark with a +21 differential for AFC East teams.

4. The NFC North has a 6-4 record against non-divisional opponents who had winning records through Week 12. Here’s a full accounting.

The Bears are the only NFC North team without a victory over a team that currently has a winning record. They are 0-3 in those matchups, headlined by their defeat at Washington on a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary. The rest of the NFC North has a 6-1 record in those games, with three victories over Houston, two over Arizona and one over Seattle.

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2024 NFC North vs. teams now above .500

NFC North Team Wk-Opp Result Point Margin

3-HOU

W, 34-7

+27

6-AZ

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W, 34-13

+21

4-SEA

W, 42-29

+13

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3-AZ

W, 20-13

+7

10-HOU

W, 26-23

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+3

7-HOU

W, 24-22

+2

8-WAS

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L, 18-15

-3

1-PHI

L, 34-29

-5

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2-HOU

L, 19-13

-6

9-AZ

L, 29-9

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-20

The NFC North’s record would be 6-3 if we adjusted the parameters to feature non-divisional games against teams that had winning records at kickoff. Victories over Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa Bay would come into play.

5. NFC North teams play 10 more games against non-division opponents this season. Here’s what the division must do to become the most dominant since 2002.

The NFL pushes most division games later in the season for competitive reasons. That leaves only 10 remaining non-division games for the NFC North to build upon its dominance or fall in the rankings. Those games are listed below chronologically and with point spreads pulled together from various sources where available.

Remaining non-division opponents

NFC North Team Week Point Spread

13

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-3.5 (vs. AZ)

13

-3 (vs. MIA)

14

+6.5 (at SF)

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14

-5.5 (vs. ATL)

15

-2 (vs. BUF)

15

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-1 (at SEA)

16

+2 (at SEA)

16

-5 (vs. NO)

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17

+3.5 (at SEA)

17

-5 (at SF)

The 2013 NFC North holds the full-season record for PPG margin against non-divisional opponents since realignment (+359 in 40 games, for 8.975 per game). That division featured the 13-3 Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers (12-4), the Bruce Arians-coached Cardinals (10-6) and the 7-9 Rams.

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NFC North teams must outscore their 10 remaining non-divisional opponents by 72 points to beat the 2013 NFC West for the best full-season differential since 2002. That would leave the division +395 in 44 games for a +8.977 PPG differential.

The best full-season record against non-divisional opponents since 2002 is shared by the 2013 NFC West and the 2007 NFC South at 30-10 (.750). The NFC North (currently .765 at 26-8) would equal that mark with a 7-3 finish against foes outside the division.

The best team in the NFC North (Detroit) will be at home for the division’s toughest remaining opponent (Buffalo). The Seahawks’ recent improvement on defense could complicate efforts for Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay to win at Seattle. The 49ers’ decline could help Chicago (Week 14) and Detroit (Week 17).

Green Bay and Minnesota can set the tone in Week 13. Both are favored at home against non-division opponents.

(Photo of Josh Jacobs, center, and three Lions defenders: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)

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Try to Match These Snarky Quotations to Their Novels and Stories

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Try to Match These Snarky Quotations to Their Novels and Stories

Welcome to Literary Quotable Quotes, a quiz that challenges you to match a book’s memorable lines with its title. This week’s installment is focused on bold observations made by characters from assorted novels and short stories. In the five multiple-choice questions below, tap or click on the answer you think is correct. After the last question, you’ll find links to the books themselves if you want to get a copy and see that quotation in context.

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Culture

16 Mayors on What It’s Like to Run a U.S. City Now Under Trump

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16 Mayors on What It’s Like to Run a U.S. City Now Under Trump

It is no ordinary time to lead a city. Budgets are in flux. Divisions are deepening. Political violence and misinformation are growing concerns. And as President Trump aggressively pursues his agenda, national politics are becoming an inescapable reality in city halls.

The New York Times sat down last month with 16 mayors at a meeting of the U.S. Conference of Mayors in Tampa, Fla. We asked them many of the same questions. Their answers revealed deep, bipartisan uncertainty over federal funding and concerns about rising incivility. Mayors of some of the nation’s largest cities, including New York and Los Angeles, did not attend.

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Some Republican mayors spoke hopefully about this new Trump era. Many others, especially Democrats, who hold the majority of big-city mayoral jobs, voiced alarm about how the administration’s policies were playing out.

Here’s what we heard.

Across party lines, this one issue was a persistent concern.

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Americans have been telling their mayors that they are worried about everyday costs and struggling to afford a place to live.

With home prices rising and supply limited, several mayors said they were trying to build more units and meet demand. It was a challenge playing out in nearly every city, with young professionals struggling to buy their first houses and growing homeless populations straining city services.

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Mayors told us what else was keeping them up at night.

They described spending significant time outside the office worrying about local and national problems. As the mayor of Noblesville, Ind., put it: “My job is not nine to five. I’m mayor regardless of where I am.”

Some described the fear of receiving a phone call with news of another shooting. Others spoke about wanting to fix endemic issues like homelessness and drug addiction.

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Governing a city feels different under President Trump, most mayors said.

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Mayor Chris Jensen (R)

Noblesville, Ind.

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Mayor Donna Deegan (D)

Jacksonville, Fla.

Mayor Jerry Dyer (R)

Fresno, Calif.

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Mayor Regina Romero (D)

Tucson, Ariz.

Mayor Kathy Sheehan (D)

Albany, N.Y.

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Mayor Alyia Gaskins (D)

Alexandria, Va.

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Mayor Mattie Parker (R)

Fort Worth

With the Trump administration seeking to rapidly overhaul parts of the federal government, mayors from both parties described uncertainty over the fate of federal grants and other programs that Republicans in Washington have targeted.

Many Democrats said they had strong relationships with former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s staff members and had not yet built those same connections with Mr. Trump’s team. Mayor Brandon Johnson of Chicago, whose city has been singled out for criticism by Mr. Trump, said that “the very basic fundamental rights of our democracy are under siege.”

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Some Republicans described optimism about working with the new president, and not all of them had seen major changes. Mayor D.C. Reeves of Pensacola, Fla., said that “it’s probably too early to say that there’s a distinct difference.” Mayor Acquanetta Warren of Fontana, Calif., said it was “not at all” different. “We work with anyone,” she said.

We also asked whether mayors had changed their routines because of political violence.

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Several mayors said they had taken additional steps to ensure their safety since the killing of a Minnesota lawmaker and her husband in June and other recent attacks. But political violence, many of them noted, was not new. Mayor Regina Romero of Tucson, a Democrat, pointed to the attempted assassination of Representative Gabby Giffords in her city in 2011.

And Mayor Indya Kincannon of Knoxville, a Democrat, said she had been inside a local church with her young daughters when a gunman opened fire in 2008, killing two people, in an attack linked to hatred of liberals and gay people. She remembered escaping with her daughters. “I picked them up and left as soon as the gunman was tackled,” she said.

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Mayor Todd Gloria (D)

San Diego

“It’s a difficult time for people in public office, and when we see the tragedy that just happened in Minnesota, you always have to wonder, you know, am I next?”

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portrait of Brandon Johnson

Mayor Brandon Johnson (D)

Chicago

“No. But what I can say is with the political violence that has been promulgating, there’s no place for it.”

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portrait of Alyia Gaskins

Mayor Alyia Gaskins (D)

Alexandria, Va.

“I have. I would say in light of recent violence, I’m much more aware of my surroundings and also those of my family.”

portrait of Kathy Sheehan

Mayor Kathy Sheehan (D)

Albany, N.Y.

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“For those of us who are elected officials, it is an uneasy time.”

portrait of Jerry Dyer

Mayor Jerry Dyer (R)

Fresno, Calif.

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“As a former police chief and spending 40 years in law enforcement, I’m keenly aware of the fact that there’s always a potential for a threat of violence against you, but it doesn’t mean that we’re always constantly aware of that threat. But I have become much more alert as of late in terms of my surroundings.”

portrait of Quentin Hart

Mayor Quentin Hart (D)

Waterloo, Iowa

“One of the things that we’ve done immediately was to take more precautions within City Hall.”

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portrait of Brett Smiley

Mayor Brett Smiley (D)

Providence, R.I.

“I haven’t made changes to how I interact with my community, but I will admit that my stress and anxiety level is up a little bit higher.”

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portrait of D.C. Reeves

Mayor D.C. Reeves (R)

Pensacola, Fla.

“Nothing permanent yet, but I’m certainly watching it.”

Immigration enforcement is creating fear in many cities, too.

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Mayors from both parties called on the federal government to overhaul the nation’s immigration laws.

“You couldn’t talk to a mayor who doesn’t want immigration reform,” said Mayor Kathy Sheehan of Albany, a Democrat. “We want Washington to fix this.”

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But as the Trump administration works to increase deportations and remove legal status for some immigrants, mayors said that some in their cities were living in constant fear of raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers.

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Mayor Brandon Johnson (D)

Chicago

Mayor Acquanetta Warren (R)

Fontana, Calif.

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Mayor Brett Smiley (D)

Providence, R.I.

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Mayor D.C. Reeves (R)

Pensacola, Fla.

Mayor Quentin Hart (D)

Waterloo, Iowa

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Mayor Jerry Dyer (R)

Fresno, Calif.

Mayor Regina Romero (D)

Tucson, Ariz.

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Mayor Mattie Parker (R)

Fort Worth

Mayors also pointed to local programs that could be national models.

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portrait of Chris Jensen

Mayor Chris Jensen (R)

Noblesville, Ind.

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“I had a local therapist approach me and ask, ‘Hey, would you go on Facebook and do a live therapy session to talk about what it’s like to be a leader during Covid?’ Of course, my initial answer was, ‘Absolutely not, I don’t want to go share my emotions with my community.’”

“But I ended up relenting and doing it. It was one of the best things I ever did. It was literally an hourlong therapy session talking about my feelings, about being a leader during such an uncertain time. That project has morphed into, now, a monthly program called ‘Mental Health Monday.’”

He added: “We have now comforted a community and a city and shown that it’s OK to not be OK.”

portrait of Acquanetta Warren

Mayor Acquanetta Warren (R)

Fontana, Calif.

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“Right now, the biggest challenge in our city is homelessness. That’s what our public is looking to see us resolve, so we’re on steroids doing that. We just bought a hotel last year, which allows us to put people off the street in an environment where they can get major assistance to transform their lives.”

portrait of Regina Romero

Mayor Regina Romero (D)

Tucson, Ariz.

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“We’ve planted more than 150,000 trees in the last six years. We created a heat tree map where we take a look at the areas of our city that have less canopy. Because trees are a nature-based solution to heat and climate.”

portrait of Todd Gloria

Mayor Todd Gloria (D)

San Diego

“Last year, despite high interest rates and high inflation, we permitted about 8,800 new homes in my city, more than double what we’ve been doing historically. The reforms that we’re putting in place to make it possible to build more homes for less and to build them faster is working.”

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We wanted to know what policy change under Trump was having the biggest impact, too.

We spoke to the mayors before Congress passed Mr. Trump’s sweeping domestic policy bill. They told us they had spent months bracing for severe cuts to federal funding for local programs, though many of their worst-case fears had not materialized at that point.

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Some described the pausing of grants while the Trump administration re-evaluated previously approved projects, leaving cities in limbo. In places where the local economy is highly dependent on international trade, mayors voiced concern about the uncertainty around tariffs.

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Mayor Brandon Johnson (D)

Chicago

Mayor Todd Gloria (D)

San Diego

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Mayor Alyia Gaskins (D)

Alexandria, Va.

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Mayor Brett Smiley (D)

Providence, R.I.

Mayor Chris Jensen (R)

Noblesville, Ind.

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Mayor D.C. Reeves (R)

Pensacola, Fla.

Mayor Cavalier Johnson (D)

Milwaukee

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And mayors told us what they had learned about the United States in the last year.

Both Republicans and Democrats said the depth of the country’s political divisions had become even more clear in recent months. Some Democrats said they were still processing Mr. Trump’s return to power and what it means for the country’s future.

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Mayor Todd Gloria (D)

San Diego

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Mayor Daniel Rickenmann (R)

Columbia, S.C.

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Mayor Regina Romero (D)

Tucson, Ariz.

Mayor Jerry Dyer (R)

Fresno, Calif.

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Mayor Brandon Johnson (D)

Chicago

Mayor D.C. Reeves (R)

Pensacola, Fla.

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Mayor Indya Kincannon (D)

Knoxville, Tenn.

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Mayor Alyia Gaskins (D)

Alexandria, Va.

We also asked some lighter questions, like which TV or streaming show they liked best.

Mayors also revealed their favorite after-work beverages.

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Many mayors were eager to plug local craft breweries. Mayor Daniel Rickenmann of Columbia gave a shout-out to the Kentucky distillery that he cofounded. Others preferred a particular soft drink.

We asked them to brag about their cities’ signature dishes, too.

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They boasted about a Friday night fish fry in Milwaukee, fish tacos in San Diego and Mexican food in Fresno and Fontana. Knoxville’s mayor suggested “meat and three,” the local term for meat and three side dishes, while Pensacola’s mayor highlighted his city’s seafood.

Two mayors shared different theories on hot dogs. And two Midwestern mayors boasted about their pork tenderloins.

Their bookshelves are also as varied as their cities.

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When asked about the best book they had read recently, mayors shared a range of fiction and nonfiction titles.

Mayor Alyia Gaskins of Alexandria said much of her reading time was spent with her young children, who enjoy “Little Blue Truck” and “Goodnight, Goodnight Construction Site.” The mayors of Fontana, Knoxville and San Diego all praised “Abundance” by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson.

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portrait of Jerry Dyer

Mayor Jerry Dyer (R)

Fresno, Calif.

“One Blood” by John M. Perkins

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Mayor Kathy Sheehan (D)

Albany, N.Y.

“A Gentleman in Moscow” by Amor Towles

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portrait of Donna Deegan

Mayor Donna Deegan (D)

Jacksonville, Fla.

“The Wisdom Pattern” by Richard Rohr

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Mayor D.C. Reeves (R)

Pensacola, Fla.

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“A Land Remembered” by Patrick D. Smith. “It’s a novel, but it’s kind of on the history of Florida.”

portrait of Brandon Johnson

Mayor Brandon Johnson (D)

Chicago

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“Locking Up Our Own” by James Forman Jr. “I recommend that people across America take a look at it, particularly at a time in which the carceral state is something that’s being enacted, especially by this federal government.”

portrait of Daniel Rickenmann

Mayor Daniel Rickenmann (R)

Columbia, S.C.

“Rockets’ Red Glare” by William Webster and Dick Lochte

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portrait of Quentin Hart

Mayor Quentin Hart (D)

Waterloo, Iowa

“The 1619 Project” by Nikole Hannah-Jones, who is from Waterloo. Also “Anesa, No Skola Today” by Anesa Kajtazovic, a children’s book about growing up during the Bosnian War.

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portrait of Chris Jensen

Mayor Chris Jensen (R)

Noblesville, Ind.

“The Circle Maker” by Mark Batterson. “It’s all about big prayers, big bold ideas.”

portrait of Brett Smiley

Mayor Brett Smiley (D)

Providence, R.I.

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“A Little Life” by Hanya Yanagihara. “Probably the saddest book I’ve ever read, but it was really, really, really well written and wonderful.”

portrait of Regina Romero

Mayor Regina Romero (D)

Tucson, Ariz.

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“The Teenage Brain” by Dr. Frances E. Jensen. “That really has helped me understand my teenagers and why they do the things they do.”

portrait of Mattie Parker

Mayor Mattie Parker (R)

Fort Worth

“On Leadership” by Tony Blair. “It’s incredibly thought provoking as a leader. I probably should have read it at the beginning of my administration, but I’ve learned quite a bit.”

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portrait of Cavalier Johnson

Mayor Cavalier Johnson (D)

Milwaukee

I’m reading it right now: ‘A Promised Land’ by Barack Obama. I’m a little behind because I’m mayor and I’ve got three kids, but I’m making up for it now.”

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Finally, we wanted to know what gave mayors hope for the United States.

Across party lines, mayors spoke about frightening political divisions, seemingly intractable problems and serious fears about the future. But most also voiced optimism about the country, drawing hope from America’s history and especially from the people they meet in their own cities.

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Match Five International Cities to Popular Book Titles

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Match Five International Cities to Popular Book Titles

A strong sense of place can deeply influence a story, and in some cases, the setting can even feel like a character itself. This week’s literary geography quiz highlights fictional works with the names of real international cities in their titles. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. Links to the books will be listed at the end of the quiz if you’d like to do further reading.

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