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Florida vs. Tennessee football prediction: What the analytics say

Published

1 year ago

October 9, 2024

Florida vs. Tennessee football prediction: What the analytics say

A classic SEC football rivalry returns to Rocky Top this weekend between a pair of teams that are 1-1 in conference play, as No. 8 Tennessee comes off a loss as it faces Florida in college football’s Week 7 action. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the game from the model that picks winners.

Tennessee was slow to start and didn’t have enough to finish in an upset loss at unranked Arkansas last weekend, but still ranks fourth nationally in both scoring offense and defense and is 5th in FBS in rushing production.

Florida gave head coach Billy Napier a little more time with a win against UCF last week, a second straight victory that followed a dominant SEC debut against Mississippi State.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, most projections favor the Volunteers over the Gators.

Tennessee is projected to win the game outright in the majority 86.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the expected winner in the remaining 13.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Vols win out in 17,380 of the index’s 20,000 simulations of the game, while the Gators come out ahead in the other 2,620 projections.

Tennessee is projected to be 17.3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Tennessee is a 15.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -700 and for Florida at +500 to win outright.

Most bettors consider Vols the far better team on the field, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A plurality of bets — 64 percent of them — predict Tennessee will win the game and cover the spread.

The other 36 percent of wagers expect Florida will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the line.

The game’s implied score suggests a comfortable win for Tennessee.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Tennessee will defeat Florida by a projected score of 36 to 20 in the game.

Tennessee is fifth among SEC teams with a 48 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Florida a win total projection of 5 games and a 31.2 percent shot at a bowl game.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

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When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7 p.m. ET | 6 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Why first quarter was ‘crucial’ in Mississippi State’s loss to Tennessee

Published

9 hours ago

January 9, 2026

Press Room

Why first quarter was ‘crucial’ in Mississippi State’s loss to Tennessee

Sam Purcell felt good about the game plan for Mississippi State women’s basketball’s matchup with Tennessee.

But the Bulldogs gave up 26 points in the first quarter and trailed by seven points. It was a deficit they never recovered from in a 90-80 loss to the Lady Vols at Humphrey Coliseum on Jan. 8.

“You look at that that first quarter, I thought it was crucial. We had a great scout, a great game plan, but we didn’t talk on ball screens,” Purcell said. “Their largest quarter was that first quarter, and we’re going to watch back and go, dang it, we need to be more vocal. And you got to give them credit – top to bottom, they’re probably as good as anybody in the country with athleticism. So you can’t let those athletic kids turn the corner for wide open layups, and we did.”

Kharyssa Richardson and Madison Francis led the Bulldogs with 22 points each, but MSU didn’t have enough defense to pull off the upset.

Had Mississippi State been able to slow down Tennessee’s drivers in the first quarter, it may have been a different result. But once the Bulldogs started slowing that down, the Lady Vols were “phenomenal hitting some big-time shots,” Purcell said.

Tennessee only had the edge in points in the paint, 42-40, but it also went 10-for-27 on 3-pointers, which was an area Mississippi State couldn’t match. The Bulldogs shot 2-for-13 from deep.

MSU also couldn’t stop Tennessee freshman point guard Mia Pauldo, who scored a game-high 26 points on 8-for-12 shooting. The Bulldogs sent her to the foul line time and time again, and she went 8-for-9 on free throws.

“I thought (Pauldo) was poised, she was clutch,” Purcell said. “Obviously, that’s what you need in games like this that are gonna come down the to the wire. You need players to step up, and I thought she was the X factor for them.”

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Former Tennessee Football Legend Accepts SEC Coaching Gig

Published

21 hours ago

January 8, 2026

Press Room

Former Tennessee Football Legend Accepts SEC Coaching Gig

The Tennessee Volunteers have been one of the main teams when it comes to producing talent and sending talent to the NFL, which is something that has often been discovered as a standard for the football program. This is something that has been going on for quite some time and isn’t anything new to the news cycle, as the Vols have been able to produce plenty of talented prospects.

Tennessee is the home of many stars, including some of the best defensive players in SEC history. Guys like Eric Berry have found their way through the Tennessee program and onto the NFL, where they would have legendary careers. However, the defensive side of the football is the only side that has produced plenty of talent, as Tennessee has produced a lot of offensive talent as well. With the likes of Peyton Manning and company, the Vols have shown a great track record in getting talent drafted.

The Vols have produced someone who could be considered as one of the best players to play the Tide end position, as the Knoxville, Tennessee program is the home to Dallas Cowboys legend, Jason Witten. Witten is someone who made the most of his career and has been viewed as a top player at the Tide in position, and someone who is often referred to as a legend for the Cowboys, along with being a legend in the game of football as a whole.

Jason Witten Accepts TE Coach Position For Oklahoma

Oct 10, 2010; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten (82) on the phone in the bench area in the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Cowboys Stadium. The Titans beat the Cowboys 34-27. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images | Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images

Witten is now taking a new gig, which has him in a huge role inside the Southeastern Conference. The Vols legend is now the tight end coach for the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners have had some success out of their tight ends in the past, but the sky is the limit with a guy like Witten coaching up the players. Witten has the opportunity to do really well, as coaching tight ends won’t be an issue, and you have to imagine that he will be able to recruit very well, considering he has a huge name around him, as this is something that we have seen from positional coaches as well as head coaches who have done great work in the league. You have to imagine that the Vols will now have stiff competition for his son, Cooper, who is a five-star recruit for the upcoming 2027 class at the linebacker position.

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Tennessee Football DB Transfer Boo Carter Visits the Vols Rival

Published

1 day ago

January 8, 2026

Press Room

Tennessee Football DB Transfer Boo Carter Visits the Vols Rival

The Tennessee Volunteers are looking to land many of the nation’s best players in the transfer portal to replace the players who have already announced they are transferring away from Tennessee. One of the players they lost very early on to the portal, and his plans of entering the portal is Boo Carter.

Carter is someone who has quickly made a name for himself, as he played for the Vols as a freshman. He also played for the Tennessee Vols this past season before suffering an injury that sidelined him for the rest of the season. Carter entered the portal and left an announcement on his X page for those interested. Here is what was said.

“I’d like to take this opportunity to thank The University of Tennessee Coaches, administrators and fans for a wonderful 2 years. Unfortunately my season has been cut short due to injury. I have decided to enter the transfer portal and I am excited about the opportunities going forward!-Boo Carter”

Boo Carter Visits Vanderbilt

Tennessee defensive back Boo Carter (23) pulls on his jersey during Tennessee football preseason practice, in Knoxville, Tennessee, Aug. 6, 2025. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Now that the portal is here, he has started to hear from many teams, including a team many anticipated to be in the picture. The Vols DB heard from the Vanderbilt staff and is now reportedly visiting them. This is a school where many of his friends go currently, and a school that has been doing well, but it is no secret that this is one of the Vols’ biggest rivalries.

He is undecided on a possible commitment somewhere, but the reports have started to indicate that the Commodores are a team to watch moving forward. This will be one to watch for the Vols, as there is a good chance they may see Carter next season.

“Dynamic athlete who quickly made an impact on defense and special teams as a true freshman … Earned the starting STAR position and shined while becoming a dangerous weapon as a punt returner as a true freshman in 2024 … Saw action as a slot receiver as well during 2025 spring practices … Early enrollee in January 2024 who participated in Citrus Bowl practices and spring practice before his true freshman season … Has compiled 63 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, three forced fumbles, three pass breakups and one interception on defense in his career … Dynamic punt returner who averages 16.0 yards per return in his career … Played in 21 career games and made five starts,” the Tennessee Vols athletics website stated.