We’re two months away from the start of the 2024 college football season. Mississippi State football will begin a new era as Jeff Lebby makes his debut as coach of the Bulldogs. Here are five bold predictions for Lebby’s first season in Starkville…

Let’s start off hot. Jeff Lebby’s calling card is producing instant offense and putting up huge numbers. So why not come in and break a record owned by the greatest offense in school history? The 2014 Mississippi State offense averaged 513.8 yards per game. Over the last six seasons, Jeff Lebby’s offenses have averaged…513.7 yards per game. So if he simply stays with that pace, he’d be right in range to potentially surpass that record-setting output by Dak Prescott and Co. And they might need to if they’re going to be competitive in SEC play.

Blake Shapen isn’t getting much love as even a top-half SEC QB. Most projections have him near the bottom of the league. But if he does this, he’d certainly change that perception. While Jeff Lebby doesn’t run the Air Raid, his scheme still puts up big passing yardage. And given my concerns with the Bulldog defense, I think he’s going to have to call more passes for State to keep pace. The SEC has some great QBs this year, but most aren’t going to need to throw quite that much, which could move Shapen ahead of them in the numbers.

The bold predictions can’t all be positive. I’ve made it clear I think State’s offense will need to be really good for them to have a successful 2024, and that’s because I have little confidence in the defense. The secondary in particular concerns me. There’s just not much talent or experience in that room, and with some of the offenses they’re going to face, they could find themselves getting burned frequently. There’s a chance MSU’s run defense is solid, but it could be a rough go defending the pass.

Allow me to be the leader of the Branden Jennings hype train. There was no attention on the former Hinds CC linebacker entering the spring, but he shined in the spring game, specifically rushing off the edge. And considering that MSU really doesn’t have any proven pass rushers on the roster, the door is open for Jennings to continue to impress and earn a major role on the defense. Am I overreacting to a glorified scrimmage? Yes. But I loved what I saw.

National expectations are low for State. Some of that is because of the overturn on the roster, but a lot of it is because of their schedule. State plays six teams – Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas A&M – that are receiving some degree of playoff hype. But I will say confidently that not all of those teams will play to that level. Someone is going to be beatable and vulnerable to getting upset. State’s offense will give them a chance against a lot of teams. At some point, they’ll pounce on an unsuspecting foe assuming an easy win and end their playoff hopes.

Warren County farmer traveled to Washington DC with Mississippi Farm Bureau Federation on an agricultural advocacy trip. 

In a press release, the Warren County Farm Bureau said:

“Chris Harris, a member of Warren County Farm Bureau was part of a small group of farmers from central MS who spent 3 days in Washington D.C. visiting with congressional members and regulatory agencies on the needs of Mississippi farmers.  The urgent need of a new farm bill, labor regulations, and conservation funding were some of the main topics discussed.  Mississippi Farm Bureau Federation is the voice of agriculture in Mississippi and this is one of many ways that the organization accomplishes its mission.”

The mission of the Mississippi Farm Bureau is to create an environment in which Mississippi farmers, ranchers, and Farm Bureau® members can have a better life and make a better living. 

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Mississippi State football’s new offense creates plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers. QB Blake Shapen should easily see the best season of his career playing for Jeff Lebby in Starkville, but in order for him to throw for a lot of yards, he needs weapons to catch those passes.

Let’s look at who’s likely to be his main target and what their production might look like.

Jeff Lebby and WRs coach Chad Bumphis had to completely overhaul the Bulldog receiving corps after losing the top-four WRs from 2023. They did an outstanding job, landing three strong transfers in Kelly Akharaiyi, Kevin Coleman, and Trent Hudson and adding a trio of 4-star true freshmen.

Akharaiyi and Coleman will likely be the go-to options for QB Blake Shapen. Lebby’s slot receivers often end-up being his receiving leader, and that’d be Coleman. But when an outside WR, like Akharaiyi, had been his best, he’s had no issue feeding them the ball.

I tend to think Akharaiyi is the best all-around WR on the team and will have a chance at some lofty numbers on vertical routes. Also, the depth in the slot is greater than on the outside, meaning there could be more of a rotation there.

I’ll take Akharaiyi to lead the team in yardage.

Kelly Akharaiyi played in a run-heavy attack at UTEP that didn’t exactly give a ton of opportunities to multiple WRs. But they had no problem targeting their top option, and in 2023, that was Akharaiyi. He hauled in 48 receptions for 1,033 yards last season. That’s 21.5 yards per catch, fourth best in the country. He’s a true deep threat, which means he can thrive playing for Jeff Lebby.

If you’re the leading WR in a Jeff Lebby offense, chances are you put up huge numbers. I’m going to exclude a very significant outlier here so not to skew the averages, but typically, Lebby’s receiving leader puts up about 1,026 yards a season.

The fewest yards by his leading receiver came from Gabe Davis in 2018 at UCF with 815. As for the most, the statistical outlier I excluded from the average was Ole Miss’ Elijah Moore in 2020. In just eight games, Moore recorded an absurd 1,193 yards. That’s over 149 yards a game. Had Moore played a full season at that pace, he would’ve finished with nearly 1,790 yards.

That’s simply remarkable. I doubt Kelly Akharaiyi comes anywhere close to that, but he should still be plenty productive in this system.

It just so happens that Kelly Akharaiyi’s 2023 season at UTEP is right in line with what Jeff Lebby’s top WR usually records. And while that offense was very different, how he was used was very similar to the role he’ll serve at MSU.

We do have to account for the fact he was playing in the Conference-USA, but as I’ve said many times, I do expect MSU to throw quite a bit this year to make up for their own defense. His number of opportunities will easily increase.

I believe he’s going for over 1,000 yards again. I’d set the over/under at 1,020, and I think there’s a real chance he challenges Makai Polk’s school record of 1,048 yards.