Oregon football has never faced Maryland, but that’s going to change Saturday when the Terrapins make the long trek to Autzen Stadium.

The Ducks are reaching new heights, thanks to their first-ever No. 1 ranking in the College Football Playoff. Oregon is nearly a three-touchdown favorite at the top online sportsbooks, and there are two bets I’m circling for this weekend’s clash with Maryland.

CFB Week 11 Maryland vs. Oregon predictions and best bets

• Oregon -25: -110 odds at Fanatics
• Terrance Ferguson anytime TD scorer: +110 odds at DraftKings

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Oregon has been a bettor’s best friend in recent weeks, covering the spread in four straight games, according to TeamRankings. Maryland is 1-2 against the spread on the road with only one cover in its previous four games.

Tez Johnson leads Oregon’s WR corps in catches, yards and touchdowns, but he’ll miss a few games because of an injury suffered against Michigan. The Ducks have outstanding pass-catching depth, and TE Terrance Ferguson’s production should rise with Johnson out.

UO got Ferguson back last week after a two-game absence, and he nearly scored his first touchdown of the season. The senior’s 20-yard catch fell a yard short of the goal line.

This is Maryland‘s first time traveling to the Pacific time zone, and cross-country flights have led to poor performances for Big Ten teams. The Terrapins’ spotty defense is solid against the run but struggles against the pass.

Maryland hasn’t pressured opposing QBs well enough, leading to 276 passing yards and 28 points allowed per game. Oregon is likely to find the end zone early and often, and I predict Ferguson to be one of the touchdown scorers.

Terrapins QB Billy Edwards Jr. has been excellent. Maryland ranks ninth nationally in passing yards per game, but Edwards Jr. has four interceptions in the past three games.

Oregon may allow more points than usual against Maryland’s pass-heavy offense. However, I don’t expect it to be enough to keep the final score within 25 points.

Maryland vs. Oregon moneyline odds analysis

Why Oregon could win as the favorite

Best odds: -3000 at BetMGM

WR Traeshon Holden stepped up when Johnson left early in last week’s game, catching six passes for 149 yards. Oregon’s second-leading receiver, Evan Stewart, was quiet versus Michigan but caught UO’s only touchdown pass.

Ferguson, Justius Lowe and Kenyon Sadiq combined for 10 catches and 111 yards. Oregon has spectacular pass-catching depth, and QB Dillon Gabriel will keep the offense humming until Johnson returns.

RBs Jordan James and Noah Whittington haven’t forced Gabriel to do all the heavy lifting. The Ducks average 168 rushing yards and have the third-most rushing touchdowns in the Big Ten.

Oregon’s defense also has been top-tier. The Ducks surrender 16 points per game with 23 sacks, seven interceptions and eight forced fumbles.

DEs Matayo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch have been unstoppable, combining for 10.5 sacks.

Why Maryland could win as the underdog

Best odds: +1500 at bet365

The margin for error is almost nonexistent when you face the No. 1 team in the nation. Edwards Jr. must cut down on his interceptions to give the Terrapins a shot at an upset.

Maryland’s defense has been especially bad against conference foes, allowing 36 points per game. Michigan State and Northwestern are among the lowest-scoring Big Ten teams, and both managed 25+ points versus the Terrapins.

One thing Maryland’s defense has done well is force turnovers. The unit has nine interceptions, and a few timely takeaways would go a long way.

WR Tai Felton will be the catalyst of the Terrapins’ offense. Felton has the sixth-most receiving yards in FBS, and he’ll need a monster performance to help match Oregon’s scoring.

The No. 1 Oregon football team will once again be a heavy favorite heading into a matchup against an unranked foe, with this week’s game at Autzen Stadium against Maryland.

The Terrapins (4-4, 1-4 Big Ten) will be looking for their second conference win of the season in Big Ten play while the Ducks (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) look to remain unbeaten.

Saturday’s 4 p.m. game will air on Big Ten Network.

At BetMGM, as of Thursday, the Ducks are a 24.5-point favorite. Oregon is -3,000 on the money line while Maryland is +1,300. The over/under (point total) is set at 57.5.

The matchup predictor provided by ESPN Analytics has Oregon with a 93% chance to beat Maryland.

Projection: Ducks win by 23.6 points

“I do think this Mike Locksley-led offense, with him calling the shots, I think this is a total backdoor situation. Oregon is playing a bit close to the vest, they don’t want to get more guys hurt, we saw the Tez Johnson injury last week and the good news is he will be back. I think they just want a very business-like approach.”

Pick: Maryland covers -25 spread (at time of recording)

“In the first half against teams not named Ohio State, Oregon does a phenomenal job of putting teams away … the first half spreads have been absolute moneymakers for the Oregon Ducks.”

Pick: Oregon covers -13.5 first-half spread (at time of recording)

Alec Dietz covers University of Oregon football, volleyball, women’s basketball and baseball for The Register-Guard. You may reach him at adietz@registerguard.com and you can follow him on X @AlecDietz.

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No, Maryland is not about to flip from blue to red.

Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by more than 20 points, and Democrats held the open U.S. Senate seat and were on the way to retaining their 7-1 advantage in the state’s U.S. House delegation — their top political priorities this year. They also waded into local school board elections for the first time in recent memory and fared pretty well.

But former President Donald Trump did get a higher percentage of the vote in Maryland this year than he did in 2020, just as he did in 48 of 50 states. And he appears to have improved his numbers in all 24 of the state’s jurisdictions.

In 2020, President Biden defeated Trump 65% to 32% in Maryland and carried Baltimore City and nine counties. This year, Harris is ahead 60% to 37% and carried eight jurisdictions — though the margin is expected to widen some after more mail-in ballots are tallied.

“Maryland is not an island, so those national trends are going to come here,” said Mileah Kromer, a pollster and director of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Institute of Politics.

The question is whether any of the political developments that put Trump over the top will have any lasting effect nationally or in Maryland — whether there is anything for state Republicans to build on or for state Democrats to worry about.

Population centers like Baltimore City and Prince George’s and Montgomery counties are going to remain Democratic powerhouses, as they have been for decades. But politics can be a game of inches and micro trends, and Maryland does have some red and purple jurisdictions and swing-y legislative districts that political strategists fret over.

Harris easily beats Trump in Maryland; the rest of the country is still a question mark

“Maryland is bigger than the core solid blue, geographically-centric counties that Maryland Democrats have come to rely on,” said Peter E. Perini Sr., a Hagerstown City Council member and former Washington County Democratic chair.

There have been no public exit polls on the Maryland vote this week, so it isn’t clear if some of the changes in the national electorate also occurred here. The Maryland State Board of Elections will release vote statistics from congressional districts and legislative districts in a few weeks.

Sometimes a single election can transform an area for a long time.

A prime example is in legislative District 6, centered in blue-collar Dundalk in Baltimore County. Going into the 2014 election, the district had a Democratic state senator and three Democratic delegates. But the delegation flipped to all-Republican in 2014, the same year former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) was elected in a major upset, and there isn’t much talk about Democrats trying to win the district back these days.

That development, in the view of many strategists, presaged Trump’s rise in 2016, and particularly his appeal to working-class voters. The trend accelerated in this year’s White House election, not just with working-class white voters, but with working-class Black and Latino men as well — a shift that some Democratic strategists find particularly concerning.

Paul Ellington, the former executive director of the Maryland Republican Party, said the GOP should learn from and build on that development, nationally and in the state. He said that Trump, in his unconventional way, listened to the concerns of working-class Americans and crafted a message on the economy and other issues that appealed to them.

“Kind of like how Hogan became ‘every man’ in Maryland and cut into traditional Democratic constituencies, Donald Trump has done that, particularly with what we would call labor, with working men and women,” Ellington said. “For too long, Republicans have carried the water for Chamber of Commerce types, when in fact, Chamber of Commerce types in Maryland probably split their donations between the two parties.”

Throughout the U.S. electorate, economic jitters proved to be a motivating issue, even if national statistics suggested that the economy was strong and getting stronger. That attitude also accrued to Trump’s benefit.

“The economy in front of them is the only economy that matters to voters,” Kromer said. “People care most about their groceries.”

But even if Trump’s political strength this election created some opportunities that Maryland Republicans might be able to take advantage of in discrete areas, the GOP writ large is not going to succeed in this state as a Trump party. The Senate race, with the decidedly anti-Trump Hogan as the Republican nominee, “was the only race that was competitive,” Kromer noted.

Maryland Democratic Party Chair Ken Ulman acknowledged that there will soon be conversations and analysis at the national level about what Democrats did wrong and what they need to do better.

“Clearly really smart people will do some autopsies and have some real work to do on how the Democratic Party communicates with the people,” he said. “I do think there’s definitely going to be some soul-searching.”

Some of that soul-searching will invariably turn on whether the party has become too “woke” and has moved too far to the left — a topic that will consume party leaders, activists and donors and political pundits for the foreseeable future, especially at the national level. Maryland Democrats will not be immune from that debate.

But Perini said voters in outlying areas of Maryland also want to see signs that their government cares about them, suggesting that recent cuts in state transportation funding, which will kill or stall key highway projects, could hurt Democrats with rural and suburban voters.

“You’ve got to understand how people feel when they take these projects off the books,” Perini said. “And how people feel is how they vote. We just need to give the people the credit for at least what they feel.”

Although April McClain Delaney, the Democratic nominee in the open-seat 6th District congressional race, appears to be headed to a narrow victory, and many party strategists worried about her fate, Perini predicted that her approach will resonate with voters in the ideologically, economically and geographically diverse district.

“I loved her line, ‘common sense and common ground,’” he said. “From day one, that was her approach to campaigning and I believe that will be her approach to governing. So there is a road map for campaigning in areas that aren’t deep blue.”

‘I think we’re an outlier’

The good news for hand-wringing Democrats is that the 2026 election cycle has already begun, which means scores of political operatives and activists will be getting ready.

“As far as I’m concerned, the 2026 election started [Wednesday],” Perini said. “And if people aren’t strategizing, they’re already a day late.”

Alsobrooks makes history in Senate race, as Hogan cannot repeat his magic

Democrats can also take comfort knowing that the party that doesn’t control the White House often makes significant gains in the midterm elections — even though politics in the Trump era is more volatile and unpredictable than ever.

Ulman said he feels good about the infrastructure the state Democratic Party built for the 2024 election, and that it will carry over for 2026, when all statewide elected officials, all state legislators and most county officials will be on the ballot. While Democrats were caught by surprise when Hogan decided this spring to run for Senate, his high-profile candidacy forced them to put together a strong operation quickly, when presidential election years are usually sleepier in Maryland.

“Together, our coordinated campaign ran an active campaign in all 24 jurisdictions, and that’s really going to help us in 2026,” Ulman said.

The party leader also said that the issue environment in 2026 could work to Democrats’ benefit, especially if Trump moves to radically make over the federal government, which is a major employer and economic driver in Maryland.

“My gut feeling after doing politics for 30 years is ’26 will be a really good cycle for the Democrats,” Ulman said. “But you have to prepare for the worst. I do think Marylanders are going to have a lot to be frustrated about with our federal government.”

Adam Wood, the executive director of the Maryland Republican Party, did not respond to a message Thursday seeking comment on the 2024 election results and what they may portend for 2026.

Whatever small inroads Trump may have made in Maryland this year, the state has its own unique set of political trends and storylines.

“I think we’re an outlier,” said state Sen. Cory V. McCray (D-Baltimore City). “We’re standing in a state where we have a Black governor and a Black United States senator. We’re defying what the country is saying.”

But, McCray conceded, pointing to the presidential result, “The voters were saying something.”