Florida is one of the least affordable states in the country to buy a home, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, as high mortgage rates keep buyers out of the market.

Why It Matters

With its sunny weather, relaxed lifestyle, and relatively cheaper cost of living and housing, Florida attracted a flow of new residents during the COVID-19 pandemic. But those markets that boomed during the health emergency have experienced a rapid cooldown over the past year as inbound migration weakened and new inventory poured into the market.

The affordability strain caused by high mortgage rates and historically elevated prices, combined with the growth in inventory and skyrocketing homeowners insurance premiums, is likely to cause a cooldown in demand and a drop in prices across Florida, experts have said.

What To Know

The Mortgage Bankers Association uses the Purchase Applications Payment Index, also known as PAPI, to measure how affordable it is to buy a home in each state based on how much a mortgage plus interest on loans costs a household in relation to its income.

In November, Florida had a PAPI of 209.9, lower only than that of Nevada (248.7), Idaho (244.2) and Arizona (220.7). The national PAPI, for comparison, was 163.3 in the same month.

While Florida has one of the least affordable mortgage payments in the nation in relation to residents’ wages, the interest rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the state are slightly lower than at the national level, according to Bankrate data. As of Tuesday, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 7.09 percent. In Florida, it was 7.06 percent.

How Are High Mortgage Rates Affecting the Florida Market

According to Nick Gerli, a real estate analyst and the CEO of Reventure App, the lack of affordability in Florida explains “the big market slowdown” in the state.

“Home sales are down 40 percent from their pandemic peak. Inventory is at the highest level in nearly 10 years. And now prices are starting to drop. But not fast enough for homebuyers,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday.

“Florida’s mortgage payment as a % of income is one of the highest in America at 40 percent,” Gerli wrote. “For the average buyer, they need to spend around $30,000 on mtg, tax, insurance. Median household income across the state is $75,000.”

What People Are Saying

Nick Gerli, the CEO of Reventure App, wrote on X: “Today’s 40 percent mtg payment/income ratio is unprecedented. The only other time it was close was the mid-2000s housing bubble. Before the big crash.”

The Senate Budget Committee wrote in a report published last month: “In certain communities, sky-high insurance premiums and unavailable coverage will make it nearly impossible for anyone who cannot buy a house in cash to get a mortgage and buy a home. Property values will eventually fall—just like in 2008—sending household wealth tumbling. The United States could be looking at a systemic shock to the economy similar to the financial crisis of 2008—if not greater.”

Sean O’Dowd, a real estate investor in Chicago, previously told Newsweek: “There’s not a single lender out there that I’m aware of that will give you a mortgage without proof of insurance. The problem is, if you have an insurance payment that’s just as much as the principal and interest payment for the mortgage, if you’ve got an insurance payment that’s five hundred bucks a month, you get to a situation where a homebuyer—especially a first-time homebuyer that doesn’t have a lot of capital to put down for the down payment—has such a weedy monthly payment with this huge insurance premium that they cannot afford to buy a house.”

What Happens Next

For Gerli, the combination of these factors—cooling demand, less inbound migration and growing supply—means the Florida market “is now turning.” His company is forecasting price declines across all of Florida’s housing market this year.

“These price declines will be welcome news to homebuyers, and finally start returning affordability to a housing market that sorely needs it,” he wrote.

Other experts agree that prices will drop in parts of Florida throughout 2025. Redfin economist Chen Zhao previously told Newsweek that the best places to buy a home this year will be “markets in the Sun Belt, especially Florida and Texas,” which are “the weakest at the moment.”

Norada Real Estate Investments also identified three metropolitan areas in Florida—Gainesville, Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville and Lakeland-Winter Haven—as at “very high risk” of experiencing a downturn this year, with prices potentially dropping by as much as 15 percent.

Ice hockey may not evoke thoughts of beaches, sunshine and palm trees but that did not stop the NHL from announcing on Wednesday that, for the first time, it will hold outdoor games in Florida next season.

The Florida Panthers will host the New York Rangers in the Jan. 2 Winter Classic at the home of Major League Baseball’s Miami Marlins while the Tampa Bay Lightning will face the Boston Bruins in a Stadium Series game on Feb. 1, 2026 at the home of the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Panthers captured their first Stanley Cup championship in 2024 while the Lightning have won three championships in their history, including back-to-back titles in 2020 and 2021.

“Stanley Cups, strings of sellouts and the exponential growth of youth and high school hockey throughout the state have demonstrated that Florida is a hockey hotbed,” NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said in a news release.

“Outdoor NHL games in the Sunshine State? Never let it be said that our league isn’t willing to accept a challenge.”

In the more than 30 years since the NHL expanded into Florida both franchises have enjoyed significant success, most recently with each of the last five Stanley Cup Final series featuring one of the Florida franchises.

Outdoor games have become a staple of the NHL’s regular season schedule with contests being staged in some of baseball’s and football’s most iconic stadiums.

The NHL has even held outdoor games in warm-weather climates before, notably Los Angeles, Dallas and Nashville.

The 2024-25 NHL season’s Winter Classic was held on Dec. 31 in Chicago while Columbus will host a Stadium Series game in March.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – In what could be a first-of-its-kind ruling in Florida, an appeals court Tuesday said a drug-sniffing dog’s alert did not justify police searching a car because the dog could not differentiate between medical marijuana and illegal pot.

The ruling by a three-judge panel of the 5th District Court of Appeal in a Lake County case could add complexity to police searching vehicles without obtaining warrants.

The case stemmed from a Groveland police officer in September 2020 stopping a Lyft car for speeding and tag lights that weren’t working. The officer subsequently called for a drug-sniffing dog, Polo, which alerted to the presence of drugs when it walked around the car.

Officers searched the car and found a bag that contained marijuana, crack cocaine, ecstasy and methamphetamine, leading to the arrest of a passenger, Stephon Ford, according to Tuesday’s ruling. Ford tried to get the evidence suppressed by arguing that the dog could not differentiate between illegal marijuana and medical marijuana or hemp.

A circuit judge refused to suppress the evidence, but the appeals court backed Ford’s argument. While other drugs were also found, the appeals court said it is possible that Polo alerted to marijuana in the bag. The pot that was found was not medical marijuana.

“At the time when Polo alerted to a target substance in the Lyft vehicle, the police officers had no way of knowing whether Polo had detected an illegal substance (marijuana, cocaine, heroin, or methamphetamines) or a legal substance, namely the THC in hemp or medical marijuana that was properly prescribed and in the possession of a bona fide medical marijuana card holder. … Whether the substance Polo smelled was legal or illegal was not readily apparent, and thus his alert, alone, could not provide the probable cause needed to justify a warrantless search,” said Tuesday’s main opinion, written by Chief Judge James Edwards.

Judge Jordan Pratt wrote a concurring opinion that said Tuesday’s ruling and a 2024 decision by the appeals court in a case about a police officer smelling marijuana show that “cannabis legalization carries collateral consequences.” Florida voters in 2016 approved a constitutional amendment that broadly allowed medical marijuana, though pot remains illegal under federal law and in other circumstances in Florida.

Pratt wrote that under Tuesday’s decision, “dogs trained to alert on cannabis can no longer provide the sole basis for a stop or search.” Nevertheless, he said police could continue to use alerts by drug-sniffing dogs to provide a basis for searching cars.

“An alert by a dog trained not to alert to cannabis — or to alert to cannabis differently than it alerts to other drugs — can still on its own supply probable cause,” Pratt wrote. “And for another thing, even without such canine training, an undifferentiated alert can supply probable cause when combined with an officer’s questions ruling out the presence of lawful cannabis. Officers easily can be trained to ask such questions in conjunction with a dog’s undifferentiated alert.”

Judge John MacIver concurred with the result of the majority opinion, though he did not sign on.

Edwards described the case as being “of first impression,” which generally indicates it is the first time the issue has been decided. Tuesday’s ruling, however, cited an August ruling by the full 5th District Court of Appeal that said a police officer could not use smelling marijuana as the sole basis to search a car and arrest a man.

In the Groveland case, Ford pleaded no contest to drug charges and was sentenced to 68 months in prison after the circuit judge denied his motion to suppress the evidence, Tuesday’s main opinion said. Ford, however, reserved the right to appeal.

While the appeals court agreed with Ford on the suppression issue, it upheld his conviction because of what is known as a “good faith” exception. It said the exception applied because the circuit judge followed what was legal precedent at the time.

But Edwards wrote that Tuesday’s ruling will apply in the future in the 5th District, which is based in Daytona Beach and includes areas such as Jacksonville and Ocala.

“Is the undifferentiated alert behavior of a properly trained police drug-sniffing dog sufficient to supply the sole probable cause for a warrantless search of a car, when that K-9 officer, while trained to alert to THC among other substances, cannot distinguish between illegal pot and legal medical marijuana or hemp? In other words, is that sniff up to snuff?” Edwards wrote. “Going forward, that dog won’t hunt.”