It’s time for my annual batted ball-based year-end team true-talent rankings —here’s a quick refresher on the methodology.

In a nutshell, league averages for each exit speed/launch angle “bucket” are applied to each team’s population of batted balls, both for and against, to derive the production they “should have” achieved and allowed. Add back the Ks and BBs, and voila, each team receives an offensive and pitching rating, relative to league average of 100. For hitters, the higher number the better, for pitchers, the lower.

Team defense is also measured, in a somewhat unique manner. Clubs’ performance is compared head-to-head versus their opponent; the ratio of actual production versus projected performance for both clubs is compared to each other, resulting in a overall defensive multiplier that can also be spread among the individual batted ball types.

In 2020, I added a new wrinkle. I introduced a team extreme ground ball-pulling penalty, similar to a concept I use for individual batters. It does not impact the overall team rating, but it more appropriately punishes a team’s offense rather than its defense for shortcomings in this area.

To qualify for such a penalty, a team had to both A) pull more than 5 times as many grounders as it hit to the opposite field, and B) post actual grounder production lower than the level it “should have” posted based on its exit speed. The penalty is equal to the amount of that difference. Three clubs were subjected to this penalty, same as in 2022, and down from 2021 (six) and 2020 (seven).

Yesterday we tackled the bottom 15 clubs; today it’s top 15. One club won an amazing 16 more games than they “should have”, the biggest single disparity since I’ve been using this method. 11 of the 12 playoff teams (the Diamondbacks ranked 20th) are included. The #7, 8 and 12 teams on this list did NOT make the playoffs. The vast majority saw their projection line up closely with their actual record. Here we go:

15. Miami Marlins (Actual Record = 84-78, Projected Record = 82-80)

Offensive Rating = 95.5 (21st), Pitching Rating = 92.3 (7th), Defensive Rating = 101.9 (21st); 2023 All-Star Break = 12th

The Marlins’ pitching was clearly the best of any club covered to this point. The Marlins’ struck out 203 times less than their opponents, which was only partially offset by a -84 walk differential. Offensively, they were the only club to record a single-digit average launch angle (9.7 degrees). They did put 256 more balls in play than their opponents, but were only +28 in fly balls. They hit their batted balls exactly as hard as their opponents (88.3 mph average exit speed).

14. Boston Red Sox (Actual Record = 78-84, Projected Record = 85-77)

Offensive Rating = 103.1 (10th), Pitching Rating = 98.4 (13th), Defensive Rating = 99.9 (17th); 2023 All-Star Break = 7th

Like the Angels (11th to 22nd) the Red Sox capsized in the second half. This was actually one of the most average teams out there, hitting the ball almost exactly as hard as their opponents (88.8 to 88.6 mph), at almost the same exact launch angle (12.1 to 11.9 degrees), with very comparable team K and BB totals. The biggest positive difference? They hit 89 more fly balls than their opponents, not an insignificant factor in fly ball-friendly Fenway Park. They out-doubled their opponents by 23, but were out-homered by 26.

13. Baltimore Orioles (Actual Record = 101-61, Projected Record = 85-77)

Offensive Rating = 101.2 (13th), Pitching Rating = 100.9 (18th), Defensive Rating = 94.9 (4th); 2023 All-Star Break = 16th

The O’s won 16 more games than the underlying batted ball data says they should have. That’s not as crazy as you might think. This club was good, but not 101 wins good. They won a ton of close games, and their bullpen was instrumental in them doing so. Think of them as the anti-Padres, who have yet to heard from on this list. They were only +6 in homers, had similar K and BB totals as their opponents, and barely hit the ball harder than them (89.0 to 88.8 mph average exit speed). Their positive +2.3 degree launch angle advantage was their primary batted ball strength. Their infield defense was scintillating – their 77.5 grounder multiplier, which was more of a team accomplishment than an individual event, led the majors.

12. Chicago Cubs (Actual Record = 83-79, Projected Record = 85-77)

Offensive Rating = 99.3 (16th), Pitching Rating = 98.8 (14th), Defensive Rating = 94.7 (3rd); 2023 All-Star Break = 15th

Almost the Orioles’ equal across the board, the Cubs won 18 fewer games and choked their way out of the playoffs in the season’s last week. According to this method, they are the 12th and final playoff club. Like the O’s, they hit the ball slightly harder (88.4 to 87.8 mph average exit speed) and higher (12.2 to 11.8 degrees) than their opponents. Their K/BB profile vis-a-vis their opponents also evokes the Orioles. And their last similarity to Baltimore is exceptional team defense – their 88.6 grounder multiplier was keyed by incredible work up the middle from Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner.

11. Houston Astros (Actual Record = 90-72, Projected Record = 89-73)

Offensive Rating = 109.8 (4th), Pitching Rating = 100.0 (16th), Defensive Rating = 99.7 (16th); 2023 All-Star Break = 13th

And here is the four-game jump between the solid teams and the good ones. The Astros’ core strengths have been consistent over the years – they put the ball in play, especially in the air. They struck out 219 fewer times than their opponents, putting 344 more balls in play. And that advantage is concentrated in the most important batted ball categories, +160 in flies and +113 in liners. They need this, as their opponents hit the ball much harder than they do (88.2 to 89.1 mph), and their longstanding launch angle advantage evaporated this season (13.0 degrees both for and against).

10. Toronto Blue Jays (Actual Record = 89-73, Projected Record = 90-72)

Offensive Rating = 104.8 (7th), Pitching Rating = 94.5 (11th), Defensive Rating = 98.7 (11th); 2023 All-Star Break = 5th

Pretty steep decline from 5th at the break, though that was more other teams moving up than the Jays moving down. Weird club whose strengths and weaknesses shifted this season. They no longer crush the baseball – their opponents had slight exit speed (88.2 vs. 88.4 mph) and launch angle (12.8 to 13.1 degrees) advantages, and the Jays had a -10 homer differential. On the other hand, they struck out 225 fewer and walked 62 more times than their opponents, putting 275 more balls in play. The old Jays had a lower floor and a higher upside, and I’d honestly like to see them return.

9. Milwaukee Brewers (Actual Record = 92-70, Projected Record = 91-71)

Offensive Rating = 93.1 (25th), Pitching Rating = 91.4 (5th), Defensive Rating = 89.9 (1st); 2023 All-Star Break = 19th

No team made a bigger second half move than the Brewers, driven by the dominance of Brandon Woodruff, whose absence was part of the reason they quickly disappeared in the playoffs. This is an incredibly one-dimensional run prevention-oriented outfit. Only the A’s hit fewer line drives, and they somehow won 92 games despite a -33 homer differential. Their opponents hit the ball harder (88.0 to 88.1 mph) and higher (11.4 to 12.3 degrees). On the other hand, they walked 98 more times than their opponents, and had by far the best team defense around. They were great everywhere, with 83.8 fly ball (led by Joey Wiemer) and 88.6 grounder (led by Willy Adames) multipliers.

8. San Diego Padres (Actual Record = 82-80, Projected Record = 92-70)

Offensive Rating = 107.8 (5th), Pitching Rating = 90.5 (4th), Defensive Rating = 103.2 (25th); 2023 All-Star Break = 10th

The 10-game disparity between actual and projected wins shouldn’t surprise you – these guys outscored their opponents by over a hundred runs. Add up their ordinal offensive and pitching ranks, and the Padres have the lowest total at 9. That doesn’t make them the best team in baseball but it means they’re reasonably close. They walked 96 more and whiffed 134 fewer times than their opponents, putting 154 more balls in play while posting a +31 homer advantage. They hit the ball substantially harder (by 88.6 to 87.5 mph) and higher (by 12.8 to 11.3 degrees) than their opponents. The only major flaw? Below average team defense, with an MLB-worst 122.8 fly ball multiplier, largely due to the efforts of Juan Soto.

7. Seattle Mariners (Actual Record = 88-74, Projected Record = 93-69)

Offensive Rating = 104.1 (9th), Pitching Rating = 91.6 (6th), Defensive Rating = 98.2 (10th); 2023 All-Star Break = 9th

The last, and best of the three non-playoff teams in the top half of the rankings. Throughout 2022, I repeatedly noted that the Mariners were ahead of schedule – 2023 was going to be their breakthrough year. Well, then…..it should have been. Weird offensive team that struck out a ton (144 more times than its opponents), while its pitchers walked no one (127 fewer than Mariner hitters drew). They put 130 fewer balls in play than their opponents, but hit them much harder (89.1 to 88.4 mph) and way higher (15.0 to 12.2 degrees). Only the Dodgers had a higher offensive team launch angle, though the M’s propensity to pop up had something to do with it.

6. Texas Rangers (Actual Record = 90-72, Projected Record = 93-69)

Offensive Rating = 110.8 (3rd), Pitching Rating = 99.5 (15th), Defensive Rating = 95.4 (5th); 2023 All-Star Break = 2nd

The Rangers fell from 2nd on this list at the All Star break, but exploded upward from 21st on the 2022 year-end countdown. Only the Braves hit the ball harder than these guys, and though their pitching staff was almost exactly average, they recorded a +35 homer differential because of their offensive thump. Though they put only 113 more balls in play than their opponents, they had huge fly ball (+145) and line drive (+84 advantages). Team defense was another significant strength, especially in the outfield (88.0 fly ball multiplier) where Adolis Garcia and late-season addition Evan Carter were exceptional.

5. Philadelphia Phillies (Actual Record = 90-72, Projected Record = 94-68)

Offensive Rating = 101.5 (12th), Pitching Rating = 88.1 (2nd), Defensive Rating = 97.4 (8th); 2023 All-Star Break = 6th

This probably isn’t the way most view the Phillies – as a team with elite pitching, solid defense and slightly above average offense. But think about it – what other team gets as high a percentage of its total innings pitched from two elite starters? Their exit speed (88.9 to 87.8 mph) and launch angle (12.9 to 11.8 degrees) edges are rooted more in pitching than offensive strength, as is their +69 walk advantage. On the other hand, their +35 homer differential is driven by a +32 105+ mph fly ball advantage. Otherwise, they hit almost exactly as many flies as they allowed. Their positive team defensive performance is largely to a 96.2 grounder multiplier, with 2B Bryson Stott leading the way.

4. Minnesota Twins (Actual Record = 87-75, Projected Record = 95-67)

Offensive Rating = 104.6 (8th), Pitching Rating = 86.4 (1st), Defensive Rating = 101.2 (19th); 2023 All-Star Break = 8th

Here’s a bunch whose rating quietly spiked in the second half. Exactly one Twin – Carlos Correa – had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, but almost all of them hit the ball hard. And on the mound they were exceptional. Their +151 walk advantage was driven mostly by the pitchers’ efforts, and was only partially offset by the hitters’ tendency to whiff (+94 K differential). Though no Twin hit more than 24 homers, they hit 233 as a team and had a +39 homer differential. Though their team exit speed differential was only +0.6 mph (88.9 to 88.3 mph), their fly ball authority advantage was much larger (1.8 mph, 92.3 to 90.5).

3. Tampa Bay Rays (Actual Record = 99-63, Projected Record = 96-66)

Offensive Rating = 100.0 (15th), Pitching Rating = 90.2 (3rd), Defensive Rating = 92.0 (2nd); 2023 All-Star Break = 3rd

A slightly better version of this year’s Phillies, according to this method, albeit with significantly better defense. The Rays were much better than their opponents when the ball wasn’t put in play, walking 75 more times and whiffing 87 less. They put 152 more balls in play than their opponents, but that advantage was concentrated in the correct category, with a +89 fly ball advantage. This, along with an authority advantage, allowed them to out-homer their opponents by 53. Defense was also a huge calling card, largely due to a 79.0 grounder multiplier, due largely to the efforts of SS Wander Franco, who remains on administrative leave.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (Actual Record = 100-62, Projected Record = 99-63)

Offensive Rating = 112.6 (2nd), Pitching Rating = 93.0 (8th), Defensive Rating = 96.4 (7th); 2023 All-Star Break = 4th

While the #20 Diamondbacks were their best selves during the postseason, the Dodgers were at their worst, with a makeshift starting rotation coming up way short. This is our third and final team that was assessed an excessive grounder-pulling penalty. The Dodgers with their +49 homer differential are the game’s most extreme lift-and-pull team, but they do it in a fairly nuanced way. Their 15.3 degree average launch angle was the game’s highest, but they managed to hit 205 more fly balls than their opponents while popping up one fewer time. They also walked 190 more times than their opponents. Their team defense was strong, led by an 84.6 fly ball multiplier keyed by CF James Outman.

1. Atlanta Braves (Actual Record = 104-58, Projected Record = 105-57)

Offensive Rating = 131.7 (1st), Pitching Rating = 93.5 (9th), Defensive Rating = 103.3 (26th); 2023 All-Star Break = 1st

The best team in baseball this season by a fairly wide margin. Their combination of brute offensive force with an ability to make consistent contact – the attributes exhibited by likely MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. – carried the day. Their 90.9 mph offensive average exit speed was easily baseball’s best, as was their +2.4 exit speed differential. This, while they struck out 227 fewer times than their opponents. It’s like a cheat code. They outhomered their opponents by an incredible +120. That is not a misprint. And there’s more in there. Their average launch angle was actually lower than their opponents’ (by 11.9 to 12.5 degrees). Weaknesses? Team defense, I guess, especially in the outfield (106.1 fly ball differential) where Acuna in particular struggled.