Posted November 3, 2024 10:21pm EST

The Atlanta Falcons are rolling, as their 27-21 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium marking their fifth win in the last six games.

After a 1-2 start, the Falcons are 6-3 — along with 4-0 in the NFC South — and in control of their own playoff destiny.

Here’s a look at the Falcons’ stock report, with who’s rising and falling after a crucial home win …

The Coaching Staff

Give flowers to Falcons head coach Raheem Morris, offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake.

The Falcons have won seven games each of the past three seasons and five of the last six years. Morris, from his culture-aiding charisma to his player-drawing reputation, has helped flipped the script in 10 months.

His fourth down aggression netted the Falcons a touchdown, as quarterback Kirk Cousins hit receiver Darnell Mooney for a 36-yard score that ultimately proved crucial in a 6-point victory. Cousins attributed Atlanta’s different culture and, at least partially, its fourth down success to Morris.

Robinson, meanwhile, drew praise from Morris for calling another strong game. The Falcons punted five times, but they averaged 5.5 yards per play and scored four touchdowns in a seven-drive stretch during the middle of Sunday’s game that helped make Atlanta’s lead insurmountable.

And Lake, after much criticism surrounding a softer approach and lack of pass rush, had his best performance of the season. The Cowboys totaled 378 net yards and rushed for a season-high 137 yards, but the Falcons forced three punts and four turnovers on downs.

Dallas went just 3-of-13 on third down and 1-of-5 on fourth down.

Pass Rush — and a variety of contributors

The Falcons had a league-low six sacks entering Sunday. They had three alone against the Cowboys to go along with eight quarterback hits.

Morris pointed to new life on Atlanta’s pass rush, as outside linebacker DeAngelo Malone played his first defensive action of the season Sunday and defensive tackle Kentavius Street was active for the first time since Week 4.

Neither Malone nor Street recorded any sacks or tackles for loss, though Malone had a pair of tackles. However, outside linebacker Arnold Ebiketie came to life, registering three quarterback hits and one sack. Linebacker Kaden Elliss had the same numbers.

Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett added one sack, while fellow defensive tackle Ta’Quon Graham secured a quarterback hit.

The Cowboys trailed for the entire second half and were forced into obvious passing situations, making Atlanta’s life easier — but unlike weeks past, the Falcons capitalized, delivering their best pass rushing performance this season.

RB Bijan Robinson

Atlanta’s playmaking young runner had his fourth consecutive day with over 100 yards from scrimmage, rushing 19 times for 86 yards while catching a team-high seven passes for 59 yards.

Robinson accounted for 145 scrimmage yards, 46.8% of Atlanta’s 310-yard output.

Team Health

The Falcons ruled out a pair of stars due to injuries, as receiver Drake London suffered a hip pointer on his nine-yard touchdown pass late in the first quarter and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett strained his Achilles during the third quarter.

Jarrett’s exit was ruled a precaution, but Morris had no update on either player’s status postgame.

TE Kyle Pitts

After a strong month of October during which he made 21 receptions for 314 yards and two scores, Pitts saw only one target in Sunday’s game. He caught it for a nine-yard gain, but failed to record any other stats.

Pitts also lost a pass blocking snap to Cowboys pass rusher Carl Lawson, who strip sacked Cousins and forced Atlanta’s lone turnover.

Special Teams

There were highs and lows for special teams coordinator Marquice Williams’ unit.

Falcons return specialist Avery Williams opted not to catch a punt around his own 10-yard line, instead letting the ball hit the turf and bounce toward the goal line. The Cowboys downed the ball at the 1-yard line, putting Atlanta’s offense behind the 8-ball.

Cowboys returner KaVontae Turpin had a pair of long punt returns, including gains of 16 and 18 yards.

Still, the unit had a few positives, as jammer Natrone Brooks knocked down Cowboys punter Bryan Anger’s pass on a fake, and Pitts jumped on kicker Brandon Aubrey’s onside kick try late in the fourth quarter, effectively sealing Atlanta’s victory.

The last time the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons met, the (6-2) Cowboys were coming off an embarrassing home defeat to a hapless Denver Broncos team in 2021.

The Cowboys blew out the Falcons 43-3 and would go on to finish 12-5 while the Falcons finished 7-10 in Arthur Smith’s first season.

Things are a little different this season. The Falcons are 5-3 and leading the NFC South, and the 3-4 Cowboys are coming off back-to-back losses to NFC superpowers in the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers.

ESPN considers the Falcons a 3.5-point favorite heading into the 1:00 p.m. kickoff in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but their trio of weekly writers is split on how the game will turn out.

NFL reporter Kalyn Kahler, fantasy analyst Eric Moody, and analytics writer Seth Walder came to a 2-1 split decision in favor of the Falcons when picking Sunday’s game.

Kahler’s pick: Falcons 28, Cowboys 20
Moody’s pick: Falcons 31, Cowboys, 27
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 27, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: ATL, 56.7% (by an average of 2.6 points)

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After a rough 1-3 start, Walder has correctly picked the outcome of three-straight Falcons games to be 4-3 on the season. Kahler has missed the last two and is 3-4, and Moody has gotten four of the last five to be 4-3 on the season as well.

The trio didn’t have predictions for Atlanta’s Week 5 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The prediction piece is released every Friday morning, and the Falcons beat the Buccaneers 36-30 that week on Thursday Night Football.

Walder also includes a bold prediction every week, and this is the week he thinks Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts cools off.

“Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts will record under 25 receiving yards,” wrote Walder. “I’m not expecting a breakout from him, not with a 33 open score anyway. That’s the worst among all qualifying tight ends and wide receivers.”

A reasonable point to think a receiver who doesn’t get open will have trouble getting yards. However, despite the low open score, Pitts has at least 65 yards in each of his last four games.

Last week the Cowboys gave up 6 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown to the 49ers’ George Kittle. Sam LaPorta only needed one catch to get 54 yards for the Lions in their 47-9 blowout of the Cowboys in Dallas.

If Walder is setting the O/U on Kyle Pitts at 25 yards against the Cowboys’ No. 20 passing defense, I’ll take the over. To be fair, a “bold prediction” is something that isn’t likely to happen.

The Cowboys and the Falcons have both struggled on defense this year. The Falcons’ inability to affect the passer has been well documented. If Dak Prescott has the patience, and is afforded the time to throw, he’ll methodically pick the Falcons’ defense apart.

The Cowboys don’t run the ball very well, employing the NFL’s worst rushing attack. Expect Prescott to use the short-passing game as an extension of the running game to the tune of 35/50 for 300 yards.

Atlanta will need to get the Cowboys off the field. That’s something they have struggled with this season with the NFL’s No. 30 third-down defense. Teams are converting third-down on the Falcons 49% of the time.

If Atlanta can get the Cowboys off the field and hand the ball over to Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense with regularity, Atlanta wins this game.

If they can’t, it will be a frustrating afternoon watching Prescott and the Cowboys dink and dunk the Falcons to death while Atlanta’s explosive offense watches from the sidelines.

Prediction:
Falcons: 31
Cowboys: 24

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