No. 12 Tennessee and Arkansas square off from Rocky Top in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that simulates games and projects scores.

Tennessee is just a field goal away from being undefeated after its loss against Georgia, but improved to 4-1 on the year after defeating UAB and Mississippi State in response, although the Vols needed overtime to win the latter game on the road.

Arkansas made an early-season coaching change after dumping Sam Pittman following an ugly loss to Notre Dame, with former Hogs head coach Bobby Petrino back in the saddle and with a chance to prove he should have the job again.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Volunteers and Razorbacks meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Arkansas compare in this Week 7 college football game.

As expected, the models are signaling the Vols are a big favorite over the Hogs.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 38 to 24 and will win the game by 13.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Vols a confident 80 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 144-152 against the spread with a 48.6 win percentage. Last week, it was 25-25 (50%) in its picks against the spread.

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The books call Big Orange a solid favorite over the Razorbacks this weekend.

Tennessee is a 12.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 68.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -450 and for Arkansas at +350 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

The game’s implied score suggests a comfortable win for the Volunteers.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Tennessee will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 41 to 28.

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Most other analytical football models also favor the Vols over the Razorbacks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is a notable favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 82.6 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 17.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This model foresees a closer result, but still in the Vols’ favor.

Tennessee is projected to be 10.8 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 38 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas wraps up the fall schedule with its first look at outside competition with a pair of scrimmages at Baum-Walker.

The Razorbacks will play against Arkansas-Little Rock and Dallas Baptist Friday and Saturday to round out over a month of prep before the team takes a hiatus before the spring.

One of the most crowded position battles features six names fighting for three spots to replace one of the more productive and powerful outfields under coach Dave Van Horn.

Charles Davalan, Justin Thomas and Logan Maxwell hit 36 home runs, the third-most for a Dave Van Horn outfield since 2014, behind only the 2023 and 2018 teams. Here’s the case for each of the six players to start.

Fall Stats: 7-for-21, home run, 2 doubles, 6 walks, 6 strikeouts (all stats are kept by the media and unofficial)

For the second straight season, Arkansas is on course to have a converted infielder make the change to outfield. Charles Davalan converted from an infielder to the outfield in high school. Niu will be making a similar transition.

Niu spent the 2024 season as Marshall’s every day shortstop, but spent the summer in the Cape Cod League as an everyday center fielder.

The transition is one that has gone well, Niu has looked comfortable in both center and left field and could replace some of the pop lost from 2025. Niu homered in six straight games as part of a 14-homer campaign with the Thundering Herd.

Fall Stats: 9-for-29, double, triple, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts

Ruiz brings in the most accomplished resume amongst the new candidates. He slashed .388/.511/.607 in his junior season with Lamar en route to winning the Southland Conference Hitter of the Year. Ruiz has yet put one over the confines on Baum-Walker but should remain a solid lock to start somewhere.

Fall Stats: 7-for-16, 2 doubles, 11 walks, 4 strikeouts

Clark has paid his dues after redshirting in 2025. He has put in a strong fall showing for the second straight year and leads the team with 11 walks, five more than anyone else in the scrimmages.

“He usually stays in the strike zone,” Van Horn said. “He went out and had a really good summer, gained a lot of experience, did what we asked him to do. Bunt, take pitches, steal bases, just be a guy that can hit one-two in the order or maybe the nine hole.” 

Clark could find himself replacing Davalan’s role in the leadoff spot as someone who routinely gets on base behind some of the more powerful bats in the order.

Fall Stats: 1-for-7, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts

Aloy will play somewhere, leading a team that went to the semifinals of the College World Series in RBIs with 70 locks in a spot in the lineup. It remains to be seen if the coaching staff will be comfortable enough to send Aloy out to right field when the team opens the season in February.

His offseason was hampered by a hand injury followed by a undiagnosed illness.

“He lost weight and strength,” Van Horn said. “[He lost] a lot of strength, felt fatigued all the time. Went through a lot of tests, but they really didn’t quite figure it out, but that’s probably the most educated guess, from a few things that have shown up, that he was on the back end of that. So he’s really just getting his strength back.”

Van Horn remains optimistic about the progress that Aloy has made in the outfield. His inexperience still shows at times, especially when covering ground in right field, allowing him to play in the field would allow the Hogs to rotate their DH spot.

Fall Stats: 11-for-23, 1 home run, 2 doubles, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts

Turner is in a similar spot as Clark was in 2024, crashing an already crowded competition and hitting his way into consideration. His 11 strikeouts are tied for the most on the team, but his consistent hard content has quickly made an impression on the coaching staff over the past month.

Fall Stats: 5-for-22, 2 walks, 9 strikeouts

Stewart brings the biggest power bat from his previous school. He finished the season seventh all-time in career homers at Missouri State (44). Stewart has struggled mightily in the fall, still searching for his first extra-base hit, but a strong spring could put his name back in the mix,

First pitch against Arkansas-Little Rock is scheduled for 6 p.m. Friday. Admission is free.